exico s Auto Industry Conference Automotive Sales in exico arch 2015
Current Situation of Automotive arket
egative impact factors on the consumer Annualized Series 1999-2015 Thousand units Socurce: ADA with information from AIA. Annualized sales were 1 million 190 thousand 442 units to arch 2015, referring to the sum of the previous 12 months from April 2014 to arch 2015. This represents a growth 11.8 % higher than the same period of 2014 when the annualized sales were 1 million 67 thousand 258 vehicles. Regarding the cumulative immediately preceding ( from arch 2014 to February 2015), sales increased 1.64% with 19 thousand 220 more units.
Light vehicle market 2000-2015 onthly units arch Accumulated units anuary-arch 22.4% 21.9% Socurce: ADA with information from AIA. Sales 2015 vs. 2013: 26.7% Sales 2015 vs. 2013: 23.8% Sales 2015 vs. 2012: 25.5% Sales 2015 vs. 2012: 31.1% Sales 2015 vs. 2011: 39.6% Sales 2015 vs. 2011: 45.2% Sales 2015 vs. 2010: 60.4% Sales 2015 vs. 2010: 62.1% Sales 2015 vs. 2009: 63.3% Sales 2015 vs. 2009: 56.6% Sales 2015 vs. 2008: 30.9% Sales 2015 vs. 2008: 16.0% Sales 2015 vs. 2007: 8.7% Sales 2015 vs. 2007: 9.3%
Segments Compact Subcompact Luxury Versa Aveo Altima Sport SUV s Light Trucks ustang CR-V Chasis Large issan
Light vehicles sold arch Segment arch Variation 2014 2015 Absolut Relative Subcompact 28,346 38,106 9,760 34.4% Compact 21,553 25,136 3,583 16.6% Luxury 5,232 5,339 107 2.0% Sport 452 755 303 67.0% SUV's 1 17,611 20,566 2,955 16.8% Light trucks 12,385 14,875 2,490 20.1% Heavy trucks 2 103 125 22 21.4% Total 85,682 104,902 19,220 22.4% 1 inivans and Vans 2 Heavy trucks include: F450, F550. Socurce: ADA with information from AIA. arch 2015 was the third positive rate recorded so far this year
Light vehicles sold anuary-arch Total sales of light vehicles Segment 2014 Structure % 2015 Structure % Variation Absolut Relative Subcompact 81,973 32.6% 110,550 36.1% 28,577 34.9% Compact 65,730 26.2% 77,113 25.2% 11,383 17.3% Luxury 14,093 5.6% 15,390 5.0% 1,297 9.2% Sport 1,508 0.6% 2,335 0.8% 827 54.8% SUV's 1 52,256 20.8% 59,789 19.5% 7,533 14.4% Light trucks 35,216 14.0% 40,611 13.3% 5,395 15.3% Heavy trucks 2 348 0.1% 369 0.1% 21 6.0% Total 251,124 100.0% 306,157 100.0% 55,033 21.9% 1 inivans and Vans 2 Heavy trucks include: F450, F550. Socurce: ADA with information from AIA.
Brands Ranking anuary - arch 2015 OTHER Socurce: ADA with information from AIA. These seven brands sold 85% of all vehicles in exico.
Sales by Brand anuary - arch 2014 y 2015 (units) Source: ADA with information from AIA 1 Including Heavy trucks: F450 and F550.
Top ten: best selling models Ranking odel Brand Segment Units arket share (%) Annual variation 1 AVEO G Subcompact 17,681 5.8% 17.0% 2 VERSA issan Subcompact 14,855 4.9% 30.0% 3 VETO VW Subcompact 14,302 4.7% 94.9% 4 TSURU issan Subcompact 12,726 4.2% 6.2% 5 SPARK G Subcompact 11,558 3.8% 41.1% 6 ARCH issan Subcompact 10,910 3.6% 61.1% 7 UEVO ETTA VW Compact 7,723 2.5% -6.7% 8 SETRA 2.0 issan Compact 7,681 2.5% 27.2% 9 CHASIS Largo issan Light Trucks 6,822 2.2% 15.0% 10 ATIZ G Subcompact 6,699 2.2% 185.2% Source: ADA. The ten best selling models in the exican market during the period anuary- arch 2015 accumulated 110,957 units, which means a coverage of 36.2% of all light vehicles sold in the reference period. issan placed in this table five of the 10 best-selling models in the country, three were placed by General otors and two by VW.
Consumer Confidence Indicator & Sales arch 2015 160 140 140 120 Sales (Units) 120 100 80 100 80 60 40 ICC 60 20 40-06 S -07 S -08 S -09 S -10 S -11 S -12 S -13 S -14 S -15 0 Sales CC 5 comp *Present possibilities of household members to make purchases of durable goods. CC 5th Component* Annual Variation % mar 2015- mar 2014: 17.5% onthly Variation % mar 2015 - feb 2015: 5.8%
165,000 Business Confidence Indicator & Sales arch 2015 70 145,000 60 Sales 125,000 105,000 85,000 50 40 30 20 Bussines Confidence 65,000 10 45,000-06 S -07 S -08 S -09 S -10 S ICE Annual Variation (%) march 2015- march 2014: -6.3% Annual Variation (%) march 2015 - feb 2014: -2.1% -11 S -12 S -13 S -14 S -15 0 Source: ADA with information from IEGI. *Indicator referrimg to manufactuing sector
Units exico s Automotive Finance anuary-february 2015 In accumulated terms (januaryfebruary 2015) 130,347 were financed, which represents an increasing of 26.3% from 2014, equivalent to 27,141 more units. These number is 0.5% higher than the same period of 2007. 65% of total light vehicle sales were finaced in the period of reference. arket share by financing institution anuary-february 2014 anuary-february de 2015 Source: ADA with ATO Dynamics information. All rights reserved ATO Dynamics 2015. * ote: Includes information of most of all lending institutions, therefore it is a trend indicator.
Credit granted by commercial banks Current Credit 2,350,000 2,250,000 Credit granted to private sector (illion pesos dec 2010 = 100) Up Credit 100,000 90,000 Annual Variation % (Feb15-Feb14): Current 5.4% Up 1.4% 2,150,000 2,050,000 1,950,000 1,850,000 1,750,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 onthy Variation % (Feb15-Ene15): Current -0.4% Up 0.4% 1,650,000 E-11 FA A S OD E-12 FA A S OD E-13 FA Current Credit Source: ADA with information of Banco de exico. A S OD Annual Variation % (Feb15-Feb14): Credit Card -0.9% Durable Goods 2.6% onthly Variation % (Feb15-Ene15): Credit Card -1.1% Durable Goods 0.3% E-14 FA A Up Credit S OD E-15 F 40,000 Credit Card 280,000 270,000 260,000 250,000 240,000 230,000 220,000 210,000 200,000 190,000 180,000 E-11 F A AS Current Consumer Credit (illion pesos dec2010 = 100) O D E-12 F A AS O D E-13 F A AS O D E-14 F A AS O D E-15 F Durable goods 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 Durable Goods Source: ADA with information of Banco de exico. Credit Card
59,000 Automotive Sector Credit Current credit granted by commercial banks. Durable Goods: (illion pesos dec 2010 = 100) 58,000 57,000 56,000 55,000 54,000 53,000 52,000 51,000 F-11 A Source: ADA with information of IEGI. A S O D -12 F A A S O D -13 F A A S O D -14 F A A S O D -15 F Automotive portfolio Annual Variation (%) feb 2015 - feb 2014: -2.1 % onthly Variation (%) feb 2015 - jan 2014: 0.2%
Inflation in Automotive Sector General Inflation and Vehicle Inflation February 2015 Annual Variation (%) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 1.5 1 0.5 0-0.5-1 Ene 2008 un 2008 onthly Variation (%) ov 2008 Abr 2009 Sep 2009 Feb 2010 ul 2010 Dic 2010 ay 2011 Oct 2011 ar 2012 Ago 2012 Ene 2013 un 2013 ov 2013 Abr 2014 Sep 2014 Feb 2015 General Vehicles Vehicles (monthly inflation) Sorce: ADA with information of IEGI. General inflation in february 2015 is higher than vehicle inflation. Annual Variation 3.00 onthly Variation 0.1912 1.27 0.1897 General Vehcles General Vehcles
Used vehicles imported (Units) February Variation 2015 2014 Units % Used Vehicle Imports 11,700 41,404-29,704-71.7% Acummulated an-feb Variation 2015 2014 Units % 25,272 94,243-68,971-73.2% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Domestic market jan-feb 182,743 185,306 183,731 183,839 131,242 123,580 135,756 150,000 164,462 165,442 201,255 Used vehicles imported janfeb Share of used vehicles imported on total domestic market (%) 67,998 510,747 210,729 337,698 12,815 69,298 102,638 69,163 104,161 94,243 25,272 37.2% 275.6% 114.7% 183.7% 9.8% 56.1% 75.6% 46.1% 63.3% 57.0% 12.6% Source: SHCP. inistry of Finance. Customs General Direction In the period an-feb, imports of used vehicles was 25 thousand 272 units, which represents 12.6% from total light vehicle sales. In february, imports decreased 71.7% from the same periodof 2014, representing 29 thousand 704 units less.
Thousand units Used Vehicles Imports vs. ew Vehicles Sales from october 2005 to february 2015 77.1% 9,471.6 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Sales Used Vehicles Imported Source: SHCP. inistry of Finance. Customs General Direction
onthly Volume of imported units 2009-2015 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 an 09 F A A SO Dec 09 an 10 F A A SO Dec 10 an 11 F A A SO Dec 11 an 12 F A A SO Dec 12 an 13 F A A AS O D an 14 F A A SO D E-15 F Source: SHCP. inistry of Finance. Customs General Direction
Light vehicles onthly Forecast Sales volume during the period january-march 2015 was 306 thousand 157 units, 8% above from ADA s forecast for this period. 140,000 120,000 Units 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 an Feb ar Apr ay un ul Aug Sept Oct ov Dic Source: ADA Forecast Real
Forecast 2015 Source: ADA anuary Forecast onth Low Real an 96,386 103,697 Feb 89,247 97,558 ar 97,008 104,902 Apr 87,559 ay 97,498 un 91,228 ul 100,490 Aug 106,341 Sept 93,481 Oct 105,184 ov 117,012 Dec 127,170 Total 1,208,604 1,232,120 Variation (%) Real Vs Forecast 7.6% 9.3% 8.1% onthly forecast have had an 8% average change under real sales, which had been record figures. Total sales considering real figures an-ar 2015 and inicial forecast show a total above the estimation done at the beggining of 2015.
Considering real sales of first three months (anuary-arch 2015) 150,000 140,000 Real 138,947 140,034 anuary Forecast 1,208,604 units 130,000 Adjustment (Basic) 1,265,196 units 127,170 120,000 110,000 100,000 90,000 Source: ADA 103,697 Adjustment (High) 97,558 104,902 1,287,708 units 94,229 96,024 97,498 100,431 102,078 91,228 97,116 99,737 100,490 101,490 104,480 106,341 106,231 108,901 93,481 98,072 102,057 105,184 108,107 111,442 117,012 114,417 116,799 an Feb ar Apr ay un ul Aug Sep Oct ov Dec
April Adjustment 2015 es Low Basic High an 103,697 103,697 103,697 Feb 97,558 97,558 97,558 ar 104,902 104,902 104,902 Apr 87,559 94,229 96,024 ay 97,498 100,431 102,078 un 91,228 97,116 99,737 Real 2014 1,135,409 Variation Vs 2014 Forecast Absolut Relative ul 100,490 101,490 104,480 Aug 106,341 106,231 108,901 Sep 93,481 98,072 102,057 Oct 105,184 108,107 111,442 Low 1,232,120 96,711 8.5 Basic 1,265,196 129,787 11.4 High 1,287,708 152,299 13.4 ov 117,012 114,417 116,799 Dec 127,170 138,947 140,034 Total 1,232,120 1,265,196 1,287,708 Source: ADA
Potential Demand of ew Vehicles The current gap shown by the panel model can be closed if the target levels in financing and imported used cars were achieved. ew Vehicle Sales 2010 (illion units) ew Vehicles ew Vehicles/1000 hab ew Vehicle Sales 2014 (illion units) ew Vehicles ew vehicles/1000 hab +0.43 +0.23 1.37 1.57 1.14 Real Panel odel Real 2010 with iniciatives Real Panel odel Real 2014 with iniciatives Source: BAXICO, AIA, IEGI, EIU, Análisis A.T. Kearney
Potential Demand of ew Vehicles If the portfolio had increased to 2006 levels and would have removed the import of used cars in the last five years there had been sold 1.36m new cars in 2014 Time Series odel Goals 2010 (millions of vehicles) 0.56 Time Series odel Goals 2014 (millions of vehicles) 0.45 1.39 0.06 0.11 0.10 0.03 Estimated 2010 Financing Used vehicles Imported Price 2010 Estimation + Impact Aditional Impact iniciatives 1,2 Real 2010 + impact Estimated 2014 Financing Used vehicles Imported Price 2014 Estimation + Impact Aditional Impact iniciatives 1,2 Real 2014 + Impact Portfolio Level 2006 = 0-0.5% trimestral The higher in 10 years Portfolio Level 2006 = 0-0.5% trimestral 1. Total impact of iniciatives is 450 thousand units of the estimated figures 2014; aditional impact is calculated as the difference of the total impact with inicatives the impact registered in time series model for each period. 2. It is included in the aditional impact the difference between the estimation 2010/2014 (time series) and real 2014/2010; 2010 ~7thousandl y 2014 ~ 15 thousand vehicles Source: BAXICO, AIA, IEGI, EIU, Análisis A.T. Kearney
Sales by Dealer 2,000 1,200,000 umber of Dealers & Sales per Dealer 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 783 487 639 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 Sales (Units) 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2014 Dealers Average Units sold by Dealer Total Sales Sales/Dealers 0 Source: ADA with information from AIA
Origin of Domestic Sales 54% 46% ational Imported In the period anuary-arch 2015 there were sold 306,157 vehicles. 165,273 of these vehicles were imported from several countries, while 140,884 came from national production. Source: ADA with information from AIA 23% An important part of vehicles sold in mexican market came from Asia and orth America 48% 16% AFTA EU ERCOSUR ASIA 14% Source: ADA with information from AIA
Origin of Domestic Sales Imported Vehicles Country an-arch % USA 32,091 19.4 APA 30,569 18.5 KOREA 22,150 13.4 IDIA 22,016 13.3 BRAZIL 17,071 10.3 GERAY 13,021 7.9 SPAI 6,880 4.2 CAADA 5,290 3.2 ARGETIA 3,037 1.8 COLOBIA 2,874 1.7 THAILAD 2,694 1.6 IDOESIA 1,724 1.0 EGLAD 1,476 0.9 SLOVAKIA 1,127 0.7 FRACE 924 0.6 CZECH REPUBLIC 876 0.5 HUGARY 594 0.4 POLAD 312 0.2 BELGIU 275 0.2 SLOVAKIA 165 0.1 ITLAY 60 0.0 SERBIA 32 0.0 SWEDE 13 0.0 AUSTRIA 2 0.0 TOTALES 165,273 100.0 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 USA APA KOREA IDIA BRAZIL GERAY SPAI CAADA ARGETIA COLOBIA THAILAD IDOESIA EGLAD SLOVAKIA FRACE CZECH REPUBLIC HUGARY POLAD BELGIU SLOVAKIA ITLAY SERBIA SWEDE AUSTRIA Source: ADA with information from AIA.
Consumer Profile Average Age Average onthly Income Average price Source: Google.
Reasons to buy a new vehicle 52% Replace Old Car Top Reasons to buy a new car Replace old car Fuel Efficiency Actual Characteristics Different segment Financing Opportunity Source: Google.
Since orge began his search, it takes nearly three months to decide which car to buy Purchase From 3 to 6 months From 1 to 3 months Same month Average time to decide From 6 months to 1 year 1 year or more Source: Google.
Consumer Profile Online research has become an important tool to buy a vehicle Source: Google.
Consumer Profile Internet is the most popular start point to purchase a vehicle (43% new; 34% used) 86% of consumers use online research, 63% consider it is an important source. In 2012 there were 1,900,000,000 vehicle search in Google. People is using internet: 20% increase from 2010 to 2012. 59% of people asked has changed their brand preference because of internet research. Source: Google