Global transport outlook to 2050 Targets and scenarios for a low-carbon transport sector

OECD/IEA 2012 Global transport outlook to 2050 Targets and scenarios for a low-carbon transport sector John Dulac Energy Analyst, Energy Technology Policy Division International Energy Agency

Content IEA Mobility Model (MoMo) ETP 2012 analysis Transport sector outlooks CO 2 mitigation potential Costing out the scenarios Transport technology outlooks and needs Global Fuel Economy Initiative (GFEI) Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI) Mobility modeling Conclusions OECD/IEA 2012

OECD/IEA 2012 IEA Mobility Model (MoMo) Simulation of global transport energy use, emissions and materials use and costs Multiple scenarios and projections to 2050 Applied hypotheses on GDP and population growth, travel demand, vehicle technologies and fuel shares, technoeconomic parametres (e.g. fuel economy and cost) 29 regions (continued expansion) Significant data on technologies and fuel pathways full evaluation of GHG emissions life cycle cost valuation: vehicles, fuels, infrastructure section on material requirements for LDV manufacturing

Coverage of transport modes 2-3 wheelers Light duty vehicles internal combustion hybrids / plug-in hybrids fuel cell vehicles electric vehicles Heavy duty vehicles Rail passenger (minibuses, buses, BRT and intercity buses) freight (medium and heavy trucks) passenger and freight HSR (added in 2012) Air / Water transport OECD/IEA 2012

OECD/IEA 2012 ETP 2012 Scenarios to 2050 6 C (6DS): business-as-usual scenario, no further uptake of energy/climate policy 4 C (4DS): expected normal scenario, incorporating announced policies 2 C (2DS): pathways to a clean energy system

EJ Share of oil used in the transport sector OECD/IEA 2012 Historic trends World transport energy use has doubled in past 30 years 120 60% Other 100 50% World aviation bunkers Domestic aviation 80 40% World marine bunkers 60 30% Domestic navigation Rail 40 20% Heavy vehicles 20 10% Light-duty vehicles 0 0% 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009 Light-duty vehicles continue to drive growth, while road freight and air travel also increased rapidly in last decade. 2-,3- and 4-wheelers Transport share of oil use

Global travel growth (trillion passenger- and tonne-km ) OECD/IEA 2012 ETP 2012 transport outlook to 2050 Passenger and freight travel by mode in the ETP 6DS/4DS 120 100 80 60 40 20 Air Rail Road freight Buses 2/3 wheelers Passenger LDV 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 With no dedicated policies, road travel likely to double by 2050, with most growth coming from passenger light-duty vehicles in developing countries.

EJ OECD/IEA 2012 ETP 2012 transport outlook to 2050 200 Transport energy use by mode in the ETP scenarios 160 120 Sea Road Rail 80 40 0 4DS 6DS 4DS Avoid/Shifts Improve 2DS 2009 2030 2050 Air Road Rail Energy use could increase as much as 70% by 2050 if no further policies are adopted in support of efficiency, alternative vehicles/fuels and modal shifting.

GtCO2eq OECD/IEA 2012 ETP 2012 transport outlook to 2050 Efficient vehicles and alternative fuels key to achieve 2DS 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 4DS 2DS 6DS Efficient vehicles Low-carbon fuels Shifts Avoid 0 2000 2005 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 An avoid, shift and improve approach is the most cost effective to reach 2DS objectives

USD trillion OECD/IEA 2012 Mitigation strategies cost comparison Global transport expenditure estimates to 2050 600 500 400 Rail Roadway and parking Other fuels 300 200 100 0 4DS Improve Avoid / Shift 2DS Oil Other vehicles Passenger LDVs The 2DS avoid, shift and improve scenario has potential to reduce global transport expenditures by as much as USD 70 trillion (~15% over 4DS).

OECD/IEA 2012 Technologies for transport Outlooks, needs and IEA initiatives

Passenger LDV stock penetration Argentina Bangladesh Pakistan Brazil Turkey Armenia Bolivia Iran South Korea Colombia Poland India Japan Bulgaria Algeria Thailand Russia USA Tajikistan Latvia Ukraine Italy Netherlands China OECD/IEA 2012 Transport technologies in the 2DS Share of alternative vehicle technologies in 2010 30% 25% NGV 20% LPG 15% 10% Full hybrid 5% FFVs 0% Alternative vehicles still represent a small share of total LDV stocks.

PLDV annual sales (millions) OECD/IEA 2012 Transport technologies in the 2DS Share of alternative LDV sales in 2050 (4DS vs Improve) 250 4DS 250 Improve case 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Gasoline Diesel CNG/LPG Gasoline hybrid Diesel hybrid Plug-in hybrid diesel Plug-in hybrid gasoline Electricity FCEV In order to reach 2DS objectives, sales of non-conventional vehicles and fuels need to increase rapidly beyond 2015.

OECD/IEA 2012 GFEI: status and potentials Fuel economy readiness index status text

France Italy Japan India Turkey United Kingdom Germany Indonesia Thailand South Africa Chile Argentina Malaysia Egypt Ukraine Brazil South Korea Russia Mexico China Canada USA Australia World EU 27 OECD Non-OECD Lge per 100km GFEI: status and potentials Sales 2011 70 000 000 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2005 2008 2010 2011 Significant fuel economy improvement if policies are in place Size shift vs. technology evolution moderates Non-OECD improvement Growth of markets with worse fuel economy affects global trend OECD/IEA 2012

OECD/IEA 2012 GFEI: status and potentials Fuel economy potentials and costs

OECD/IEA 2012 EVI: status and outlook Electric vehicles: realities and targets EV vehicle sales need to double every year to reach 2020 targets.

pkm OECD Non OECD Africa ASEAN China India Japan Latin America European Union United States OECD/IEA 2012 Mobility trends and potential Passenger mode share estimates (2009) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Air Rail Buses Mini-buses Passenger light trucks Passenger cars 0% 3- and 4-wheelers 2-wheelers Modal data is limited in most countries but is critical to analysis of transport sector trends and potentials.

Trillion pkm OECD/IEA 2012 Mobility trends and potential Modal shares in the ETP 2012 Avoid/Shift analysis 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 4DS Avoid / Shift 4DS Avoid / Shift 2010 2030 2050 Air Rail Buses Mini-buses Passenger light trucks Cars 3-wheelers 2-wheelers ETP Avoid/Shift analysis demonstrates the potential to reduce energy and emissions to 2050 through marginal changes in travel.

OECD/IEA 2012 Infrastructure: technical solutions? Average expected road-occupancy levels (national level) Travel under the 4DS and 2DS is expected to increase road occupancy levels. Technologies could play a role in improving travel flows and consequently reduce energy losses, emissions and social costs.

OECD/IEA 2012 Looking forward Technical questions and areas of needed research

OECD/IEA 2012 Next steps and R&D needs Improved mobility requires understanding of mobility needs: How do/will/could people and goods move about? How can efficiencies be improved? How can technology assist travel choices and movement? How will urban context change transport needs? Transport system is complex: One solution not a panacea multiple approaches needed: infrastructure/technology/policy interface Need to think outside the box from within the box define solutions through innovation for context

OECD/IEA 2012 Conclusions Avoid, shift and improve approach most cost effective to achieve 2DS objectives Significant energy savings and emissions reduction possible through fuel economy improvement. Learning curves, costs and availability are key. Modal shifts can play large role in improving transport sector (costs, energy, emissions, time, etc) Technology priorities should address how to move people and goods efficiently in an energy-, timeand budget- constrained world

OECD/IEA 2012 Thank you! John.DULAC@iea.org