The risk of oil and chemical transportation in the Baltic Sea Pentti Kujala, Professor Jakub Montewka, PhD Aalto University, Kotka Maritime Research Centre Maritime responsible choices for the Baltic Sea July, 26 th, 2012
MERIKOTKA, Maritime research centre The objective is to strengthen research and development in the maritime arena on the basis of a broad international co-operation network. Logistics and harbours (University of Turku and KyAMK) Marine Traffic Safety (Aalto University) Environment (University of Helsinki)
Merikotka development
Background Maritime traffic poses various hazards Oil spills are often major disasters Risk management actions forced by catastrophic spills. Post-accident policies not comprehensive, biased by the characteristics of single accident.
Background http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/8664684.stm Most major spills from sea transport Spill size not a measure of environmental damage
Present status traffic in the Gulf of Finland http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/ On avarage more than 3000 ships bound to the Gulf of Finland monthly, with 700 tankers, out of which 60% belongs to chemical tankers.
Present status accidents in the GoF 1996-2007
Present status accidents in the Gulf of Finland
Motivation for research projects in the field of maritime transportation risk Current Models Segregated models Effects on details Results are abstract Accident probability Spill size Poor future predictivity Ongoing research Holistic approach System level effects Results as RCO s Risk Control Options Policy decision support Future trends Traffic flows Ship design
ChemBaltic Risk of maritime transportation of chemicals in the Baltic Sea Implementation period: 04.2011 12.2013 Partners include: Kotka Maritime Research Association Aalto University University of Turku Port of HaminaKotka Finnish Transport Safety Agency Finnish Port Association Finnish Ship-owners Association NESTE Oil Crystal Pool
MIMIC Minimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies Implementation period: 04.2011 12.2013 Partners include: Aalto University Kotka Maritime Research Association University of Turku Kymenlaakso University of Applied Sciences University of Helsinki Tallin University of Technology University of Tartu, Estonia Marine Institute Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Finnish Environment Institute Admiral Makarov State Maritime Academy Institute of Numerical Mathematics
Holistic risk assessment for the maritime domain System >Σparts Changes in one part -> system changes IMO. Guidelines fo Formal Safety Assessment for use in the IMO rule-making process. MSC/Circ.1023, MEPC/Circ.392, 2002
A framework for modelling risk in maritime domain RISK ASSESSMENT and MANAGEMENT Risk analysis Risk criteria Risk control options Recommendations Human factors Social impact Frequency reduction Regulations Technical factors Surroundings Ship type Economical impact Environmental impact Consequence mitigation Ship design and operation Waterway design and operation Consequence type
Modelling risk of tankers traffic in the GoF We adopt a definition of risk (r) given by Kaplan: r = (s i, p i, c i ), where s i is the i th scenario (collision), p i is the probability of this scenario and c i is the consequences of the i th scenario (cargo spill). Kaplan S. (1997), The words of risk analysis. Risk analysis, 17(4), 407-417
Modelling the scenario - oil tankers traffic in the GoF Research conducted within a flagship project EfficienSea, 2009-2012
Modelling the scenario - chemical tankers traffic in the GoF Research conducted within Chembaltic project, 2011-2013
Ship size
Modelling the scenario - tankers traffic in the GoF Expected number of struck tankers per year x 10e-3 Expected number of struck chemical tankers per year x 10e-4
Modeling the consequences Collision energy; Crack propagation; Critical collision speed A B F F B A σ T A B ε T
Risk of oil tankers traffic in the GoF Tanker DWT Spill size (tons 10000 812 35000 3395 50000 5219 75000 8604 115000 15063 150000 21807 Research conducted within a flagship project EfficienSea, 2009-2012
Risk of chemical tankers traffic in the GoF
Risk of the tankers traffic in the GoF Mean expected cargo outflow, chemical tanker as struck vessel in collision Tonnes of spilled cargo Mean expected oil outflow, oil tanker as struck vessel in collision Tonnes of spilled cargo
Chemical spill optimal placement of recovery vessels (RV) Recently the Finnish Navy received a multi-purpose recovery vessel Louhi for oil- and chemical recovery duties. She is the first vessel able to fight with chemical spill in the Gulf of Finland. Louhi is placed in Uppiniemi.
Chemical spill optimal placement of recovery vessels (RV) 1 recovery vessel (RV) available 2 RVs available 3 RVs available
Oil spill clean-up costs modelling
Oil spill clean-up costs modelling One of the scenario simulated is for an oil spill of the size of 30 000 ton and the oil type is heavy oil. No waste management costs included, which can be as high as 100Mio Euro, see Partila (2010). Søfartsstyrelsen og Farvandsvæsenet, Jean-Hansen, 2003 Skjon et al., 2007 Vanem et al., 2008 Merenkulkulaitos, 2008 Shahriara & Frost, 2007 Yamada, 2009 Etkin, 2000 Cost model 25 70 272 280 240 127 174 392 504 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Million Partila, M. (2010): Alusöljyvahingon seurauksena rantautuvan öljyn lajitteluohjeiston muodostaminen, Diplomityö, Ympäristötekniikan koulutusohjelma, Lappeenrannan teknillinen yliopisto.
Risk control options Reduce the probability by: improving navigators performance, improving the waterways, improving traffic managment,... Mitigate the consequences by: improving ship crashworthiness, improving damage ship stability, Improving the accident response,...
MIMIC and ChemBaltic contributions Contribution for several stakeholders Society Policy makers Ship managers EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region to make the Baltic Sea Region a safe and secure place linking security issues with safety management to make the Baltic Sea region an environmentally sustainable place Applicable for ant other sea area Gulf of Finland as demonstrative area
Expected results Holistic maritime risk management Integrating knowledge from previous projects OILECO, SAFGOF, METKU, EFFICIENSEA, CAFÉ, OILRISK Grounding risk Security issues Traffic flow internals Ship types, age, crew experience Environmental and economical effects Optimization of risk management for efficiency
Expected results Proactive policy decision assessment tool Holistic impact evaluation of policy options Improving prediction of future developments Web-based risk managment tool Integrating security and safety Combining probability and consequenses Supporting accident response decisions Training Planning
30.7.2012 Kotka Maritime Research Centre 31
Thank you for your attention Maritime responsible choices for the Baltic Sea July, 26 th, 2012