Russian Crude Exports by Direction an outlook up to 22 For Platts Crude Oil Summit 21 May 213 Arsenije Dusanic JBC Energy GmbH May 213 Research - Energy Studies - Consulting - Training
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Russian Crude Export Pipelines Legend: Existing Pipeline Pipeline Under Construction Russian Crude Pipeline Projects Zapolyarnoe-Purpe to be completed in three phases by 216 Zapolyarnoe Vankor Purpe Taishet-Skovorodino line's capacity is increased to 1 million b/d Primorsk Ust-Luga BPS-2 Yaroslavl BPS Samotlor RUSSIA Taishet Skovorodino The Skovorodino-Kozmino pipeline has a capacity of 6, b/d Druzhba Unecha KAZAKHSTAN ESPO Komsomolsk Novorossiysk Daqing Refinery 12, b/d CHINA Kozmino Source: JBC Energy 21 May 213 Slide 3
Crude Exports: Capacity vs Actual Volumes Russian Crude Export Capacity versus Export Volumes [ mbpd; % ] 1 1% 9 9% 8 8% 7 7% 6 6% 5 5% 4 4% 3 3% 2 2% 1 Western pipelines (Druzhba, Belarus, Ukraine) Omsk-Pavlodar CPC (Russia's share - 31%) Other routes BPS-1 BPS-2 1% Source: JBC Energy SuDeP, Various ESPO Crude Available for Exports Implied Export Capacity Utilisation - right scale 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 % 21 May 213 Slide 4
Russian Oil Output Outlook 12. 11.5 11. Tight oil less promising Projects cancelled / delayed Additional tight oil Upside Russian Oil Production Scenarios [million b/d] Implementation of tax breaks and tight formation geology speak for a strong case on the upside. Less favorable regulation framework Higher decline rates Lower declines through EOR Base Case Downside 1.5 1. Low case possibility due to slow pace of tax exemptions implementation 9.5 9. 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 21 May 213 Slide 5
Domestic Crude Intake vs Exports Russian Refinery Crude Intake vs Export Volumes [' b/d] 6, Domestic Crude Use Crude Exports 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 21 May 213 Slide 6
ESPO Exports 8 ESPO Exports [' b/d] 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Source: Energy Intelligence China Kozmino Quarterly Average Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 21 May 213 Slide 7
East Siberian Output Outlook Projected East Siberian Oil Output by Company [' b/d] 1,4 Rosneft TNK-BP Surgutneftegaz Independents Gazprom Neft 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 Source: JBC Energy estimates, Argus 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 21 May 213 Slide 8
ESPO Pipeline and Regional Refineries ESPO Pipeline Taishet-Skovorodino line's capacity increased from 6, b/d to 1 million b/d. Transneft intendts to connect the 7, b/d Khabarovsk (214) and the 16, b/d Komsomolsk (215) refineries to the ESPO system. Once this is done, around 2, b/d of ESPO volumes will be sent to the two Russian refineries in Russia's Far East. Tomsk Skovorodino ESPO Pipeline Komsomolsk The 6, b/d Skovorodino- Kozmino pipeline is now completed. Taishet Khabarovsk Angarsk Nakhodka??? Daqing Refinery Kozmino MONGOLIA The 3, b/d Skovorodino- Daqing spur capacity is due to be increased by 1, b/d by 215. CHINA Source: JBC Energy 21 May 213 Slide 9
ESPO: Exports vs Domestic Intake 1,4 ESPO Exports vs Domestic Intake [' b/d] Exports Domestic Refinery Intake 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 Source: JBC Energy estimates 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 21 May 213 Slide 1
Druzhba Exports 1,4 1,2 Druzhba Non-CIS Exports [' b/d] Germany Poland Czech R. Slovakia BPS-2/Ust-Luga start-up. Hungary Bosnia Quarterly Average 1, 8 6 4 2 Source: Energy Intelligence Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 21 May 213 Slide 11
NWE vs Med 3, Urals Seaborne Exports [' b/d, %] 9% 2,5 75% 2, 6% 1,5 45% 1, 3% 5 Novorossiysk Primorsk Ust-Luga NWE Share in Urals Seaborne - right scale Tuapse Gdansk Med Share in Urals Seaborne - right scale 15% Source: Energy Intelligence Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 % 21 May 213 Slide 12
Russian Crude Exports by Direction 6, Russian Exports by Direction [' b/d] North South West East 5, 137 1158 4, 1359 3, 147 132 18 2, 85 72 584 1, 1692 1762 1753 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 21 May 213 Slide 13
Russia: A Swing Exporter? Legend: Existing Pipeline Pipeline Under Construction Russian Crude Pipeline Projects Vankor Zapolyarnoe Purpe Primorsk Ust-Luga Samotlor RUSSIA BPS-2 Yaroslavl BPS Taishet Skovorodino Druzhba Unecha KAZAKHSTAN ESPO Komsomolsk Novorossiysk Daqing Refinery 12, b/d CHINA Kozmino Source: JBC Energy 21 May 213 Slide 14
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