Environmental Outlook Aerospace 2009: Facing up to the future 21-23 April 2009 Royal Aeronautical Society, London Andreas Schäfer University of Cambridge as601@cam.ac.uk
Contents Demand for passenger mobility A closer look at air travel Omega integration study Flight frequency study
Determinants of travel demand: TTB Average daily travel time, h/cap 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 Selected Data Points: 1 Tanzania Villages (1986) 2 Ghana Villages (1988) 3 Palestine (1999/2000) 4 Romania (1991) 5 Warsaw (1993) 6 Sao Paulo (2002) 7 South Africa (2001) 1 2 3 Villages Cities Countries 5 4 6 7 8 9 8 South Korea (1995) 9 Germany (1982) 10 Singapore (1991) 11 Spain (2002/03) 12 Paris (1991) 13 Tokyo (1990) 14 Finland (2000) 10 17 18 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 GDP/cap, $(2000) 12 11 13 14 15 15 Japan (2001) 16 France (2000) 17 Paris (2001) 18 Switzerland (1989) 19 Great Britain (2004) 20 Norway (2000) 21 United States (2001) 16 19 20 Schafer A., J.B. Heywood, H.D. Jacoby, I.A. Waitz, 2009. Transportation in a Climate-Constrained World, MIT Press 21
Determinants of travel demand: TMB Share of GDP dedicated to travel, % 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 Data Points: U.S. (1909, 1914, 1919, 1924, 1929, 1950-2005) Japan (1963-2005) France (1959, 1962-2005) Germany (1970-2004) Italy (1963-2005) UK (1963-2005) Bulgaria (1997-2005) Hungary (1994, 1996-2005) 1 2 3 4 100 Poland (1995, 2000-2005) Romania (2000-2005) Western Europe (1973-2005) Eastern Europe (2000-2005) Sri Lanka (2002) Turkey (1994) South Africa (2000) Mexico (2000) 200 300 400 500 600 700 Motorization level, LDV/1000 capita 1 2 3 4 Schafer A., J.B. Heywood, H.D. Jacoby, I.A. Waitz, 2009. Transportation in a Climate-Constrained World, MIT Press 800
Growth in global mobility (1950-2005) PKT/cap 1,000,000 100,000 10,000 Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America Middle East & N. Africa Other Pacific Asia North America Pacific OECD Western Europe Eastern Europe Former Soviet Union South Asia Centrally Planned Asia World 1,000 100 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 GDP/cap, US$(2000) GDP/cap, US$(2000) Schafer A., J.B. Heywood, H.D. Jacoby, I.A. Waitz, 2009. Transportation in a Climate-Constrained World, MIT Press
Shift from slow to fast (1950-2005) Low-speed public modes, %PKT High-speed modes, %PKT 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Light-duty vehicles, %PKT100 Industrialized Regions: North America Pacific OECD Western Europe Reforming Economies: Eastern Europe Former Soviet Union Developing Regions: Centrally Planned Asia Latin Ameria Middle East & North Africa Other Pacific Asia South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa 0 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Schafer A., J.B. Heywood, H.D. Jacoby, I.A. Waitz, 2009. 10 Transportation in a Climate-Constrained World, MIT Press 0 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 PKT/cap
Global mobility by mode (1950-2050) 200,000 High-speed transport 2050 Projections: Passenger-km traveled, bln. 150,000 100,000 50,000 Low-speed public transportation Light-duty vehicles A B A: Annual average growth in gross world product per capita corresponds to 2.2% per year; moderate income growth in the developing world. B: Annual average growth in gross world product per capita corresponds to 2.6% per year; strong income growth in the developing world. A & B: Travel time budget per person assumed to be 1.2 h per day, on average. 0 1950 2005 2050 2050 Source: Schäfer A., J.B. Heywood, H.D. Jacoby, I.A. Waitz, 2009. Transportation in a Climate-Constrained World, MIT Press.
Aviation integrated modelling Aircraft Movement Global Climate Global Environment Impacts Aircraft Technology & Cost Airport Activity Air Quality & Noise Local Environment Impacts Air Transport Demand Regional Economics Local/National Economic Impacts www.aimproject.aero
Study mitigation options Study title Key outputs used for this study Climate Related Air Traffic Management Sustainable Fuels for Aviation Marginal Costs of Environmental Abatement for Aviation Environmental Aspects of Fleet Turnover, Retirement and Life Cycle Environmental Effects of Aircraft Operations and Airspace Charging Regimes Air Transport in the European Emissions Trading Scheme Aircraft fuel efficiency improvement potential due to advanced ATM Fuel-cycle characteristics of second-generation (cellulosic) synthetic oil products Main economic and technological char. of selected mitigation technologies Retirement of existing aircraft and market penetration characteristics of new aircraft Capacities of European Airports Range of carbon prices to prioritize emissions trading scenarios
Study approach Socio-economic variables, oil price development, carbon price trajectory from three internally consistent scenario families (U.S. Climate Change Science Program) Selected scenarios are consistent to carbon prices in Omega study and would lead to 450/550 ppm CO 2 -eq atmospheric stabilization Adoption of Omega study mitigation technologies: airlines choose among competing technologies based upon cost-effectiveness (payback period = 7 years for new technology)
European air transport system evolution 2005 2050
Policy case vs. unconstrained reference case IGSM reference case demand requires at least two-fold capacity at LHR, CDG by 2050. CO 2 emission reductions result from adoption of mitigation technologies and reduced demand
Policy case
Technology adoption Complex interactions - uptake of one mitigation measure can lower future uptake of other measures Largest effects on lifecycle emissions from SESAR and 50/50 BTL/jet fuel blends BTL land-use implications significant Open rotors enter in highcost scenarios only Retrofit/maintenance measures experience limited adoption IGSM Scenario
Airline competition and flight frequency 1-5 Flights per day 5-15 Flights per day 15-30 Flights per day >30 Flights per day Ph.D. work by Antony Evans: Model 5 airlines in 14 cities / 22 airports / 11 hubs in the domestic US in 2005 Maximise profit function (system-wide vs. airline-specific), given OD demand, fares SEA SEA SEA BOS BOS BOS SFO OAK DEN ORD MDW DTW LGA EWR JFK PHL IAD DCA SFO OAK DEN ORD MDW DTW LGA EWR JFK PHL IAD DCA SFO OAK DEN ORD MDW DTW LGA EWR JFK PHL IAD DCA LAX ONT ATL LAX ONT ATL LAX ONT ATL DFW DAL DFW DAL DFW DAL IAH HOU IAH HOU IAH HOU MIA MIA MIA Actual Network Operated, 2005 System Optimal Network Tripling of 2005 fuel cost Airline Game Theoretical Equilibrium Network O-D Seats O-D Flt Freq. Segment Flt Freq. System Optimal Network Airline Optimal Network % diff. System R 2 % diff. System R 2 % diff. System R 2 9% low 0.703 26% low 0.618 29% low - 24% high 0.804 13% high 0.925 11% high 0.674
Summary Demand for transportation likely to continue to grow strongly, and for aviation in particular ( fixed budgets of money and time expenditures) Rising potential for reducing aviation-related CO 2 - emissions, mainly offered through SESAR and 2 nd generation biofuels Inefficiencies result in higher than system-optimum flight frequencies implications for market consolidation