The Dynamics of ICT R&D in China Stéphane Grumbach INRIA Asian rise in ICT R&D Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), JRC Bruxelles, Feb. 16-17 2010
ICT in China: mobile and online 450 millions online people (60% under 30) 19% growth in 2010 800 millions mobile 300 millions mobile surfer 30% growth Very active online world China leading in terms of usage penetration of web 2.0 applications (McKinsey) S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 2
ICT in China: the industry New ICT giants with strong export capacity Lenovo Spin-off of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Bought IBM PC s for 1.75 Billions US$ 2005 #1 PC market in Asia-Pacific region ZTE and Huawei Telecom equipment Global research network China Mobile, China Unicom, China Telecom Telecom operators Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba Internet S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 3
ICT in China: the research 1. National Supercomputing Center in Tianjin, China Tianhe-1A - NUDT, Intel X5670, 186368 processors 2566 Tflops 2. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, USA, Cray Inc., 224162 processors, 1759 Tflops 3. National Supercomputing Centre in Shenzhen (NSCS) Nebulae - Dawning, Intel X5650, 120640 processors, 1271 Tflops 4. GSIC Center, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Japan TSUBAME 2.0 - HP Xeon 6C X5670, 73278 processors 1192 Tflops 5. DOE/SC/LBNL/NERSC USA Hopper - Cray XE6 153408 processors 1054 Tflops 6. CEA, France Tera-100 Bull 138368 processors 1050 Tflops Nov 2010 Chinese systems: 2 in the TOP5 42 in the TOP500 S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 4
ICT in China from Research to Development S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 5
Human resources 20 millions students --- 5% tertiary education (USA 37%) New promotion: 15% of an age group S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 6
Chinese students abroad Foreign recipients of U.S. S&E doctorates, by country 1985 2005 189.346 recipients Source www.nsf.gov/statistics S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 7
Global R&D expenditure 2008 Source: OECD-MSTI 09 S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 8
Global R&D expenditure 2008 Expected R&D expenditure 2011 China: 150 billion US$ Japan: 150 billion US$ USA: 400 billion US$ Source: OECD-MSTI 09 S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 9
ICT in China: a research priority Program 863 for High-tech R&D (2008) Expenditure on R&D China s high-tech industries Source: MOST (2009b) Annual Report of the State Programs of Science and Technology Development S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 10
Publications SCI: 6% of world total 15% yearly growth #5 (behind US,JP,GB,DE) EI: 20% of world total 30% yearly growth #2 (behind US) Source: 2009 S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 11
Impact and visibility Strong evolution of the citation rate of publications 13 th position (18th in 2003) Progression of citations: 28% in 2006 Publications SCI 1997-2006 40% of articles never cited 225 articles cited more than 100 times (129 in 2005) Impact Reasonable in new materials, mathematics, chemistry, physics In ICT: 20,995 SCI papers (1999-2009) 8.3% of world total 1.91 citation per paper (world average 3.25) S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 Source: 2009 12
Expenditure by domain Weak fundamental research: 5% OECD average: 20% Still a logic of developing country Technological catch up But strong link with fundamental research abroad S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 Source: MOST 13
IPR: triadic patents Global share 1995-2005 Source: OECD-STI 08 S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 14
Proprietary standards Priority of the 12 th 5 year plan (2011-2015) TD-SCDMA is China s 3G standard AVS is China s standard for Audio & Video (competitor of MPEG-4 AVC) FutURE Forum to prepare China s upcoming Beyond 3G standard SCDMA, China s standard that could compete with Wimax Enhanced Versatile Disk, China s standard for HD DVD Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Ministry of Science and Technology IGRS is China s home networking standard China Communications Standard Association Internet 2 & IPv6 technologies DMB-T China s national standard for Digital Terrestrial TV SARFT announced China's National Standard for Mobile TV & interactive multimedia services (STiMi & CMMB) RFID China s national standard for RFID under discussion China BroadBand Wireless IP Standard Working Group, promoter of WAPI, China s WLAN GM-U Code, China National Standard for 2D barcodes S. Grumbach standard Bruxelles - Feb 2011 15 Ref. Hervé Cayla, Gailong
R&D expenditures by performing sector Industry represented only 45% in 1998 Source www.nsf.gov/statistics S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 16
Industrial R&D spending 2008 Circa 1 Trillion US$ For the 1000 top corporations Source: Booz Global Innovation 1000 S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 17
Few Chinese corporations in R&D 2008 investment in R&D A dozen Chinese corporations among the top 1000 None in the top 100 PetroChina 818.26 Million Euros, (intensity 0.7%) ZTE (telecom equip.) 450.52 Million Euros, (9.6%) China Petroleum & Chemical China Railway Construction China Coal Energy China Communications Construction BYD Electronic equipment Source: 2009 EU Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 18
#1 for ICT exports since 2004 High-Tech exports mostly under foreign brands Source: MOST S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 19
4 Chinese among the first 16 S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 20
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Source:www.internetworldstats.com S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 22
Globalization of R&D 1993: First foreign R&D center (Motorola) 2004: 700 foreign R&D centers 2005: China 1 st localization for new R&D centers ahead of the USA and India Objectives 1) adapt products to local market 2) technological intelligence 3) global R&D Attractiveness of China 1) market shares vs. technologies participation in the design of Chinese standards 2) talents 3) costs S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 23
Most R&D labs are in IT Figure 1 The industrial distribution of autonomous R&D labs settled by Business Week 1000 MNCs in China 2004 6% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2%1% 23% 7% 7% 5% 13% 18% Software Semiconductors Automobiles Biotechnology&Drags Other IT Products Food and beverages Others Telecommunications Industrial Equipments and components Commodity Chemicals Household Electronics Chemicals Industrial Conglomerates S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 24
Concluding remarks A belief in Science Scientific policy 2.5% of GDP in R&D by 2020 World scientific leader by 2050 A test for High-Tech and ICT Young population Modernizing country A tradition of networking An economic and political strength Recover its glorious past Capacity to reform and adapt to changes S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 25
References UNESCO Science Report 2010 OECD Factbook 2009 OECD Science, Technology and Industry (STI) Scoreboard 2009 OECD Reviews of tertiary education, CHINA, 2009 OECD Reviews of Innovation Policy, CHINA, 2007 http://www.most.gov.cn/eng/statistics/2007/index.htm 2009 www.nsf.gov/statistics www.booz.com www.starmass.com S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 26