The Light Commercial Vehicle Surge in Europe When Will the Tide Break? Grischa Meyer Market Analyst, Light Commercial Vehicles
Presentation Outline Focus: Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs) up to 6t GVW Defining the LCV Sector by Segment The Notion of Light Trucks Global Segment Sales Trends of LCVs Western Europe Segment Perspective of the LCV Sector What Are the Market Drivers in Western Europe? When Will the Tide Break? Questions 2
Western Europe Light Truck Sales (incl. SUV & MPV) Have Been Rising Strongly 4,5 4, 3,5 3, Light Truck Sales by Official Registration Type (Thousand Units) CAR LCV 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 199 1995 2 25 21 3
>6t <6t The LCV Sector and Its Segments Have More Than One Definition GI-Type: How a vehicle looks (Globally) GI-Type HCV Off-Type: How a vehicle is registered (Locally) EU USA Japan >6t <6t GI-Type LCV GI-Type CAR GI-Type Light Vehicles GI-Type Cars and LCVs combined CAR LCV CAR LCV CAR LCV LCV CAR KEI- CARS Light Vehicles OFF-Type Cars and LCVs combined 4
The Notion Light Trucks Applies to All Vehicles That Look Like an LCV Plus All That Are Registered As Such >6t <6t GI-Type: How a vehicle looks (Globally) GI-Type HCV Off-Type: How a vehicle is registered (Locally) EU USA Japan >6t <6t GI-Type LCV GI-Type CAR GI-Type Light Vehicles GI-Type Cars and LCVs combined SUVs, PUPs, larger MPVs CAR LCV CAR LCV CAR LCV LCV CAR KEI- CARS Light Vehicles OFF-Type Cars and LCVs combined 5
For the Remainder of This Analysis, We Will Focus on Commercial LCVs in These Segments CDVs: Car Derived Vans (usually -2t) MVAN: Medium Vans (usually 2-3.5t) HVAN: Heavy Vans (usually 3.5-6t) MIC: Micro Vans (usually -2t) PUP: Pick-up (split into PUP-B, -C and -D) 6
In 26, Commercial LCV Segments Were Dominated by PUP-D and MVAN (Global Sales) PUP-D 26% CDV 1% MVAN 18% PUP-C 17% PUP-B 1% MIC 15% HVAN 13% Key: PUP-D = Large Pickups, PUP-C = Medium Pickups, PUP-B = Small Pick-ups 7
Global C/LCV Sales Are Dominated by North America and Asia, Impacting Segmentation Structure (Thousand Units) 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 North America 2 1 5 1 5 Western Europe 2 1 5 1 5 Eastern Europe PUP-D PUP-C HVAN MVAN CDV PUP-C MVAN CDV PUP-B 2 South America 2 Middle East & Africa 2 Asia 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 1 1 5 5 5 PUP-C PUP-B CDV PUP-C CDV MVAN MIC HVAN PUP-C 8
Large Pick-ups Dominate Globally, But Micro Vans Show Biggest Growth Potential 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Commercial LCV Sales (Thousand Units) PUP-D PUP-C MVAN MIC HVAN CDV PUP-B 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 9
In Western Europe, MVAN, and CDV Segments Dominate Clearly Commercial LCV Sales (Thousand Units) 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 MVAN CDV PUP-C HVAN MIC PUP-B PUP-D 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 1
In Western Europe, the Top 3 Countries for Commercial LCVs Are France, U.K., and Germany 5 Thousand Units 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 FRANCE GERMANY UNITED KINGDOM SPAIN ITALY 11
27 Commercial LCV Sales Reflect Market Cycles, with Italy Pushed by Scrapping Scheme 1, 5, -5, -1, -15, Units DIFF 27 ITALY NETHERLANDS SWEDEN IRELAND NORWAY BELGIUM FRANCE FINLAND AUSTRIA DENMARK SWITZERLAND GREECE PORTUGAL UNITED KINGDOM GERMANY SPAIN 12
West European Commercial LCV Sales by Manufacturer Group 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Units 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 13 29 21 211 212 PSA RENAULT VW GROUP FIAT GROUP FORD DAIMLER AG GM NISSAN MITSUBISHI TOYOTA
West European Commercial LCV Sales by Brand 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Units RENAULT VW FORD CITROEN FIAT MERCEDES- BENZ PEUGEOT OPEL 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 NISSAN IVECO 14
In the Segment Ranking, Eastern Europe Is Similar to the West 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Thousand Units MVAN CDV PUP-C PUP-B HVAN PUP-D MIC 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 15
In Eastern Europe, the Top 3 Countries for Commercial LCVs Are Turkey, Russia, and Poland 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Thousand Units 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 TURKEY RUSSIA POLAND 16
What Are the Market Drivers in the West European Commercial LCV Market? Short Term (+) replacement of leading MVAN models (+) confidence indices are rising again since mid-25 (+) deep-grounded parc renewal due to imminent legislation (~) deteriorating economic growth in France and Spain (~) 99/ transaction replacement demand cycle fades out (~) historically high fuel prices and tax burden Medium and Long Term (-) Overall stagnating demand due to completely built-up car parc (+) Ongoing parc renewal before Euro-5 legislation (-) Technological pressure due to CO 2 limitation regulations Commercial) LCV sales are forecast to grow by just 1.6% in 27 Car Substitutes are expected to expand by 8.6% in 27 Total Light Truck forecast to grow by 4.1% 17
When Will the Tide Break? In Germany, Commercial LCV Sales Projected to Decline by 3% in 27 Thousands 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 Light Trucks LCV C/LCV 18
When Will the Tide Break? In France, Commercial LCV Sales Will Increase by Only.7% in 27 Thousands 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 Light Trucks LCV C/LCV 19
When Will the Tide Break? In the U.K., Commercial LCV Sales Will Decrease by 3.6% in 27 Thousands 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 Light Trucks LCV C/LCV 2
When Will the Tide Break? In Italy, However, Commercial LCVs Will Increase by 4.9% in 27 Thousands 6 5 4 3 2 1 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 Light Trucks LCV C/LCV 21
When Will the Tide Break? In Spain, Commercial LCV Sales Will Decrease in the Next Years Thousands 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 Light Trucks LCV C/LCV 22
What Does This Mean for West European OEMs? Segment West European OEMs should think again: Micro Vans (MIC) might be worth taking another look at, especially for West European OEMs looking at Asia Heavy Vans (HVANs) will be growing, still with many coming from the Light Duty Truck range (3.5 7.5t GVW) Medium Pick-ups (PUP-C) is also an interesting growth opportunity mostly outside Europe, Thailand is important Large Pick-ups (PUP-D) is the segment to enter in the United States As market leaders show, it pays off to leverage: Home base competitive advantage Localised production Partnering and co-operation Manufacturing and distribution synergies 23
Thank You Grischa Meyer Market Analyst, Light Commercial Vehicles E-mail: grischa.meyer@globalinsight.com
APPENDIX Applicable Segment Definitions 25
Segment CDV: Small Van Models Derived from B-and C-Segment Car Platforms Car-like ride/handling/fuel economy Typically have seating for 2 with ½ tonne payload, GVW <2t Were once all proper LCVs, but some OEMs market CDVs as CAR models, now often registered as CARs in official stats Recent trends suggest sub-segmentation into ½ tonne and ¾ tonne segments Size < 4,5mm Price Band = CHF < 25, Note: We include Combispace versions of LCVs as CDVs, even if registered as CARs Recent Top Best Selling Segment CDV Models Renault Kangoo Citroen Berlingo Peugeot Partner VW Caddy III Ford Transit Connect 26
Segment MVAN: Medium Van Models on Designated Light Commercial Vehicle Platforms Truck ride/handling/fuel economy Typically have seating for 2-9 with 1 1.5t payload, GVW 2 3.5t MVANs split in to panel vans (cargo vans), chassis cab (pick-ups), passenger vans, and mini buses Size = 4,7 5,1mm Price Band = CHF 3, 6, Note: Some MVANS are also privately used and then officially registered as CAR under OFF-TYPE Recent Top Best Selling Segment MVAN Models VW T5 (Transporter) Ford Transit Renault Trafic Fiat Ducato MB Vito and Sprinter 27
Segment HVAN: Heavy Van Models Are on Designated Light Commercial Vehicle Platforms Truck ride/handling/fuel economy Typically have seating for 2 9 with 1 2.5t payload, GVW 3.5 6t HVANs split in to panel vans (cargo vans), chassis cab (pick-ups), passenger vans and mini buses. Size = 4,8 5,6mm Price Band = CHF 4, 6, Note: GVW 6 7.5t is currently covered by the Heavy Truck Report Recent Top Best Selling Segment HVAN Models Mercedes-Benz Sprinter Renault Mascot IVECO Daily Volkswagen LT Nissan Eco-T 28
Segment MIC : Small Van Models with Less than 6cc Dominate in Asia, But 12cc in Western Europe Car-like ride/handling/fuel economy Typically have seating for 2 with ½ tonne payload, GVW <2t In WE only as full LCVs in official stats, as no private use at all Size = 3,3 mm Price Band = CHF 2, Note: Sales mainly in Italy and U.K. Recent Top Best Selling Segment MIC Models Piago Porter Daihatsu Extol (was Hijet) Aixam Mega Van 29
Segment PUP-B : Sub-compact Pickup Models Derived Mainly from B-Segment Car Platforms Sub-compact Pickup can also be Microvanbased (Asia) More car-like ride/handling/fuel economy Typically have seating for 2 with ½ tonne payload pickup bed, GVW <2t Work horse tries to go into lifestyle direction to sell more. Popular in Brazil, which is also a key production location Size < 45mm Price Bands = B Segment +1% CHF < 26, Note: PUP-A & PUP-E are thought unnecessary at present Recent Top Best Selling Segment PUP-B Models Fiat Palio Strada Dacia Camionete Izhmash Izh VW Saviero Opel Corsa/Chevrolet Montana 3
Segment PUP-C : Generally Built Body on Frame or Truck Based Models Usually quite rugged with fair ground clearance. Most 2WD with 4WD option Single cab or Crew cab versions with 1-tonne payload pickup bed Mostly utilitarian/commercial usage but some crossover into CAR sector in some markets (especially U.S. and Thailand) Size 451 51 mm Price Bands = C1/C2 Segment +15% CHF 26,1-36, Note: PUP-A & PUP-E are thought unnecessary at present Recent Top Best Selling Segment SUV-C Models Ford Ranger Toyota Hilux Chevrolet S-1 Toyota Tacoma Isuzu DMax 31
Segment PUP-D : Generally Built Body on Frame or Truck Based Models Generally purpose-built Body on Frame/Truck-Based models Rugged single cab or crew cab versions with large pickup bed Typically 4WD with good ground clearance/off-road prowess Ride/handling/fuel economy compromised as a result Size > 5mm (big!) Price Bands = D1/D2 Segment +1% CHF >36,31 Note: PUP-A & PUP-E are thought unnecessary at present Recent Top Best Selling Segment PUP-D Models Chevrolet Silverado Ford F-Series Dodge Ram Ford Super-Duty GMC Sierra 32