BLUE BOOKSEPTEMBER 2013 Market Report Automotive Insights from Kelley Blue Book USED CAR EDITION Kelley Blue Book Public Relations Contacts: Chintan Talati Senior Director, Public Relations 949.267.4855 ctalati@kbb.com USED-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS: Remain at Highs $19,000 $18,500 Remain at Highs Brenna Robinson Public Relations Manager 949.267.4781 berobinson@kbb.com Natalie Kumaratne Public Relations Coordinator 949.267.4770 nkumaratne@kbb.com In This Issue: USED-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS Remain at Highs Newer Models Cost More at Auction Comparison: Civic Hybrid vs. Civic LX Domestic Remain Higher Year Over Year $17,500 $17,000 $16,500 All Minivan Drop in September 2013 Midsize Pickup Truck Values Holding Due to Lower Volume SUVs/Crossovers Down in September 2013 Midsize Vehicles Level-Off Year over Year HOT USED-CAR REPORT Used-Car Shopper Interests Shifts Towards Full-Size Cars Auction values for 1-3 year old models at the end of Q3 2013 remain at a 3-year high at an average of $17,085, or $280 above the 2012 average. Since the start of the year, auction values have declined an average of $731 or 4.3 percent. In 2012, average auction values declined by $974 or 5.8 percent by the end of Q3 2012. Kelley Blue Book expects values to continue on their downward trajectory throughout the remainder of the year, while continuing to best previous year auction values. Newer Models Cost More at Auction Average Auction Sale Price Newer Models More Costly at Auction % of Auction Sales, 1-6 y.o. models 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 72% Newer Models More Costly at Auction 69% 69% 67% 69% 67% 63% 55% 51% 49% $8,000 All Model Years 1 to 6 y.o. models Q3-2004 Q3-2005 Q3-2006 Q3-2007 Q3-2008 Q3-2009 Q3-2010 Q3-2011 Q3-2012 Q3-2013 0% Q3-2004 Q3-2005 Q3-2006 Q3-2007 Q3-2008 Q3-2009 Q3-2010 Q3-2011 Q3-2012 Q3-2013 According to Kelley Blue Book s auction data, the average sale price of a vehicle at auction was $11,322 in Q3 2013, up 3.9 percent from Q3 2012. The average sale price of 1-6 year old models was $17,375 in Q3 2013, up 6 percent from Q3 2012. The increase in sale prices of late-model vehicles corresponds with a drop in the number of these models being sold. In 2007, more than two-thirds of auction sales were within the latest 6 model years. However, in Q3 2013, that number has dropped to less than half of all auction sales.
Fuel Prices $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 Fuel prices dropped 10 cents in the month of September 2013 from a high of $3.57 to $3.47. From a year-over-year perspective the average price for fuel is down 36 cents. This remains in line with Kelley Blue Book s projection of lower fuel prices throughout the remainder of the year. $2.50 CY11 CY12 CY13 $2.00 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Comparison: Civic Hybrid vs. Civic LX Auction Value $20,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 Civic Hybrid vs. Civic LX Civic LX Sedan Civic Hybrid 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 Model Year Within the past year, auction values for later model -year Honda Civic Hybrids have declined at a faster pace than their nonhybrid counterparts. This faster depreciation has now made a number of the Honda Civic Hybrid variants cheaper to own. Despite the Honda Civic Hybrid costing around $5,500 more on average than its Civic counterparts, model years 2003-2006 Honda Civic Hybrid all fall below the cost of the Civic LX. In terms of auction value, the 2007 model-year Civic Hybrid costs only $100 more than the Civic LX model, and the 2008 model year for both the Civic Hybrid and Civic LX cost the same at $8,200 each. This reiterates the understanding that consumers are not willing to pay the money for older hybrid models and there is still a slight uncertainty in the market around hybrid vehicles in regard to how they depreciate and what the maintenance factors will be as the vehicle ages. Domestic Remain Higher Year over Year $18,500 $17,500 $17,000 $16,500 Domestic Remain Higher Year Over Year In August, auction values for domestic brands exceeded where they were in in previous years. This trend continues into September with a 2.6 percent increase year over year. Chrysler auction values have been consistently higher year over year, while Ford and GM have surpassed 2012 values in recent months. Comparing to September 2012, Chrysler is showing the biggest year-over-year change of 5.9 percent, with Ford at 2.9 percent and GM at 1.3 percent. $14,500 Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov 2 BLUE BOOK Used-Car Market Report SEPTEMBER 2013
All Minivan Drop in September 2013 Sienna Odyssey Quest Sedona Minivan Drop in September -2.1% -1.4% -0.3% -0.4% In September, all brands in the minivan segment decreased. However, the Toyota Sienna and Honda Odyssey both showed the smallest decreases over the last 4 weeks (-0.3 percent and -0.4 percent respectively). The biggest change was for the Chrysler Town & Country (-2.7 percent) and the Dodge Caravan (-2.8 percent), which are both built from the same platform. In the upcoming months, we are expecting to see values continue to decrease as they have in previous months. Mazda5-2.4% Town & Country -2.7% Caravan -2.8% -3.0% -2.5% -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% September 20, 2013 vs. August 23, 2013 Midsize Pickup Truck Values Holding Due to Lower Volume $14,500 $13,500 $13,000 $12,500 $11,500 $11,000 Midsize Pickups Hold Value Due to Lower Volume While values for used midsize pickup trucks were mostly flat month over month, they were up 1.5 percent compared to September 2012 and 9.7 percent higher than September 2011. There has been a significant drop-off in auction volume of smaller pickups as several once popular models are no longer in production, and the lower available supply supports higher used values. Auction volume of used midsize pickups at the end of August was down 6.5 percent compared to August 2012, and 13.7 percent lower than August 2011. Seasonal demand for trucks, in addition to constrained auction volume, should keep values stable moving into Q4 2013. Colorado Canyon Midsize Trucks Year to Date 4.7% 5.2% As of September 2013, only the Suzuki Equator, no longer in production due to the bankruptcy of the Suzuki U.S. division, saw significant declines in value year to date. Leading the segment, the Chevrolet Colorado and its twin truck the GMC Canyon both saw increases of close to 5 percent from the beginning of 2013. Ranger 3.1% Dakota 2.0% Frontier 0.4% Tacoma -1.1% Equator -10.9% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% September 20, 2013 vs. uary 1, 2013 3 BLUE BOOK Used-Car Market Report SEPTEMBER 2013
SUVs/Crossovers Down in September 2013 SUV & Crossover Segments Down in September Year-Over-Year Percent Change By Sub-Segment Full Size Sport Utility -0.1% Full-Size SUV/Crossover 4.2% Luxury Mid-Size SUV/Crossover 4.2% Luxury Sport Utility -0.7% Compact SUV/Crossover 2.3% Full Size Crossover -0.7% Mid-Size SUV/Crossover 2.2% Compact Crossover -0.9% Luxury Compact SUV/Crossover 2.1% Mid Size Sport Utility -1.1% Luxury Full-Size SUV/Crossover 1.0% Mid Size Crossover -1.5% Luxury Crossover -2.1% -3% -2% -2% -1% -1% 0% September 20, 2013 vs. August 23, 2013 In September, the overall average auction values for crossovers dropped 1.7 percent. The vehicles with the biggest changes are the Mitsubishi Outlander Sport (-9.2percent), BMW X3 (-5.1percent) and the Volkswagen Tiguan (-4.9 percent). Despite the overall average auction values for SUVs/crossovers dropping 1.7 percent in September, SUVs/crossovers are still performing better year over year. Midsize Vehicles Level-Off Year over Year Midsize Vehicles Flat Year Over Year The values are now at similar levels seen at this time last year, or flat year-over-year. On a monthly change, midsize vehicles are down -1.3 percent Kelley Blue Book expects for the values to remain on the same trajectory as in previous years. $13,000 $11,000 $9,000 The statements set forth in this publication are the opinions of the authors and are subject to change without notice. This publication has been prepared for informational purposes only. Kelley Blue Book assumes no responsibility for errors or omissions. 4 BLUE BOOK Used-Car Market Report SEPTEMBER 2013
HOT USED-CAR REPORT: Used-Car Shopper Interests Shifts Towards Full-Size Cars - Arthur Henry, manager of market intelligence and market analyst, Kelley Blue Book Kelley Blue Book s Hot Used-Car Report captures monthly used-car shopper activity on KBB.com, including a list of the top and bottom movers in the same time period. Results are provided by the Kelley Blue Book Market Intelligence Team, in an effort to help dealers better understand which used vehicles consumers are looking at most each month. Monthly Used-Car Shopping Activity Growth Top/Bottom 10 Models 2011 Chevrolet Impala 2009 Nissan Maxima 2009 BMW 5 Series 2009 Acura TL 2009 Nissan Rogue 2009 Nissan Altima 2009 Mercedes-Benz C-Class 2009 BMW 3 Series 2009 Honda Accord 2009 Honda Civic 2010 Honda Civic 2010 Honda Accord 2011 Toyota Camry 2011 BMW 3 Series 2011 Honda CR-V 2010 Toyota RAV4 2010 Toyota Prius 2010 MINI Cooper Hardtop 2011 MINI Cooper Hardtop 2009 MINI Cooper Hardtop -56.8% -60.3% -61.6% -31.5% -32.0% -39.6% -15.3% -18.0% -21.0% -22.5% 5.0% 30.3% 27.4% 27.4% 26.5% 25.5% 46.6% 44.7% 41.9% 56.2% -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% % Change in Share Month-Over-Month Information based on 2011 to 2007 Model Year Vehicles Monthly Used-Car Shopping Activity Growth Segments Van 9.9% Luxury Sport Utility 9.2% Full-Size Car 7.4% Luxury Car 5.7% High Performance 4.9% Sports Car 4.6% Subcompact Car 4.5% Compact Luxury Car 4.1% Full-Size Sport Utility 4.0% Premium Luxury Car 3.1% Entry Luxury Car 2.2% Premium Sports Car 2.0% Luxury Crossover 1.9% Minivan 1.5% Mid-Size Car 1.2% Mid-Size Pickup Truck 1.1% Full-Size Pickup Truck 0.3% Mid-Size Sport Utility 0.2% Mid-Size Crossover 0.1% Compact Car -1.5% Full-Size Crossover -3.4% Compact Crossover -6.6% Hybrid Car -24.9% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% % Change in Share Month-Over-Month Information based on 2011 to 2007 Model Year Vehicles Full-size cars have increased in share of used-car retail traffic 7.4 percent month over month. The 2011 Chevrolet Impala and 2009 Nissan Maxima are fueling shopper interests for the full-size segment. Commercial vans as a segment have increased in shopper interest. There isn t a single driver for the increased attention to commercial vans, as evidenced as no models that compete in this segment appear in this month s Top 10 list. On the whole, import models have had the greatest gains and losses over the month. The only domestic model to appear on this month s report is the Chevrolet Impala. Honda and Toyota both appear on the top risers and fallers list. About Kelley Blue Book (www.kbb.com) Founded in 1926, Kelley Blue Book, The Trusted Resource, is the only vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry. Each week the company provides the most market-reflective values in the industry on its top-rated website KBB.com, including its famous Blue Book Trade-In and Suggested Retail Values, and Fair Purchase Price, which reports what others are paying for new cars this week. The company also provides vehicle pricing and values through various products and services available to car dealers, auto manufacturers, finance and insurance companies, and governmental agencies. For two years running, Kelley Blue Book s KBB.com ranked highest in its category for brand equity and was named Online Auto Shopping Brand of the Year in the 2012 and 2013 Harris Poll EquiTrend study. Kelley Blue Book Co., Inc. is a subsidiary of AutoTrader Group, which includes AutoTrader.com, vauto, VinSolutions and HomeNet Automotive. AutoTrader Group is a majority-owned subsidiary of Cox Enterprises. 5 BLUE BOOK Used-Car Market Report SEPTEMBER 2013