Fig. 1 The steel economy in Germany: out of recession again 8 Orders received, rolled steel, total (change in % c.f. previous year s quarter) 55 Crude steel production (m. tonnes, sliding 3 MD, annualised) 6 4 4.2 Oct. (p): 3.1 m. tonnes ( 3% c.f. previous year s month) 3. 4. 45 2 1.2 2.7. 2.1.8 35 Jan Oct 13: 2% Sept./Oct: +2% 4 25 6 8 11 Q1 5.5 6.2 Q2 Q3 Q4 12 Q1 5. Q2 Q3 Q4 13 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 15 Forecast for 213: 42.2 m. tonnes ( 1%) 48.3 45.8 32.7 43.9 44.3 42.7 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 1 26.11.213 Press conference STAHL213 German Steel Federation
Fig. 2 Economic prospects for Germany: upturn in investment demand important steel processors expect to increase production 1 9 8 7 6 Forecasts for 214 (change in % c.f. previous year) DIW (Okt.) IKB Bank (Juli) Ifo (November) Commerzbank (Okt.) DB Research (Sept.) 12.3 6. Metal goods Steel use in per cent (Germany) Others 2.9 Household goods Construction 3.6 5 4 9.7 Tubes 3 2 Automotive Machine construction 1 12.1 Construction Bau Auto. Auto Mach. Maschb. constr. Metal Metallw. goods gewogenes Weighted Mittel average 26.5 2 26.11.213 Press conference STAHL213 German Steel Federation
Fig. 3 Stocks in the distribution sector are now at a very low level 36 34 32 3 28 26 24 Inventory coverage and stocks of finished goods: steel traders and steel service centres in Germany 1 tonnes In months Stocks (left) Inventory coverage (right) Long-term average 4,9 4,4 3,9 3,4 2,9 22 Source: BDS 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 2,4 Last value: Sept. 13 Recovery of steel processors will rapidly be converted to a rise in steel demand. 3 26.11.213 Press conference STAHL213 German Steel Federation
Fig. 4 Steel forecast for Germany: market supply will grow by about 4% in 214 crude steel production will probably rise 2% to 43. m. tonnes 45 4 4.3 Market supply, rolled steel (millions of tonnes) 43.4 43.2 37.2 41.2 38.1 37.7 39.3 5 48 46 44 47.2 48.3 Crude steel production (millions of tonnes) 45.8 43.8 44.3 43. 35 42 4 42.7 42.2 3 29. 38 36 25 34 2 8% 1% +4% 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213p 214f 32 3 32.7 4% 1% +2% 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213f 214f 4 26.11.213 Press conference STAHL213 German Steel Federation
Fig. 5 Protectionism in the steel industry is rising worldwide Examples of tariff and non-tariff trade barriers USA: Buy American Import licences Brazil: Argentina: Import licences EU: No import duties on steel products Strict maintenance of subsidy discipline Turkey: Strategy plan Egypt: Morocco: Sources: OECD, WTO, Eurofer, EU Commission: DG Trade Red = countries will be examined in more detail in this report. Saudi Arabia: Buy national Iran: Buy National Tunesia: Pakistan: India: Compulsory national certification These trade restrictions affect about 65% of worldwide crude steel production. Russia: Kazakhstan: Australia: Thailand: National product standardisation Indonesia: Compulsory national certification China: VAT relief on exports Subsidies Direct foreign investments banned & licences Taiwan: Import licences Vietnam: Import licences Malaysia: Import licences 5 26.11.213 Press conference STAHL213 German Steel Federation
Fig. 6 EU steel demand to increase slightly in 214 Germany remains an anchor providing stability 25 2 15 1 22 186 Market supply EU 27 (millions of tonnes) 121 148 158 142 139 143 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 Development of market supply, rolled steel, in selected countries of the EU 27 (26=1) Deutschland Germany Frankreich France Italien Italy Spanien Spain Forecast 1 % 4% 4% 2% 7 3% 2% 5 6 2% +3% 5 2% 3% 7 8 9 1 11 12 13p 14f 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13p 14f Source: Eurofer Economic Commission, Oct. 13 6 26.11.213 Press conference STAHL213 German Steel Federation
Fig. 7 High under-utilisation of EU steel capacities again in 214 strong regional differences 24 22 2 18 16 14 21 Crude steel production, EU (millions of tonnes) 198 139 173 178 169 164 168 1 9 8 7 Effective utilisation of crude steel capacity (in per cent) 96 94 93 85 91 86 66 87 73 76 88 75 78 Deutschl. Germany EU EU ohne ex Germany D. 84 82 74 74 71 72 86 76 73 12 5% 3% +2% 6 59 61 1 27 28 29 21 211 212 213f 214f Source: Own calculations 5 27 28 29 21 211 212 213f 214f 7 26.11.213 Press conference STAHL213 German Steel Federation
Fig. 8 Costs for the steel industry in Germany resulting from the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) 35 3 3 33 25 Million / year 25 2 15 1 5 31 258 174 177 95 13 42 48 48 54 61 EEG costs, steel industry in m. / a Feed-in payments in bn. / a * 2 15 1 5 Billion / year 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213p 214p 215 216 217 218 214: EEG levy 6.24 cents / kwh * incl. market premium etc., minus saved network charges Source: network operators, in-house calculations 8 26.11.213 Press conference STAHL213 German Steel Federation
Fig. 9 A ban on aid in the form of the special compensation scheme would threaten the steel industry in Germany with costs of 1 bn. euros / year 12 Million 1 8 6 4 1 2 36 44 EEG payments 214 p Draft environmental and energy aid guidelines State aid prodeedings * 2% deductible ** Complete ban on special compensation scheme 9 26.11.213 Press conference STAHL213 German Steel Federation
Fig. 1 Study by IW Consult: no comparable competitive conditions through initiatives on emission trading systems in other countries Worldwide steel production (in per cent) Burden from emission trading systems Proportion of world steel production No CO 2 trading for the steel industry, or voluntary system Regional pilot projects CO 2 trading with low reduction targets CO 2 trading with high reduction targets Source: IW Consult 1 26.11.213 Press conference STAHL213 German Steel Federation