Energy Briefing: US Petroleum Products Supplied December 29, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Petroleum Imports & Exports 3 Petroleum Products Supplied 4-5 Petroleum Supplied 6-7 Crude Oil Production & Imports 8 Misc. 9-11 Large Speculators: Crude Oil 12 Large Speculators: Gasoline 13-14 December 29, 217 / US Petroleum Products Supplied www.
16 Figure 1. US IMPORTS OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS (million barrels per day, 4-week ma, nsa) Petroleum Imports & Exports 16 14 14 12 12 1 1 8 8 6 Crude Oil & Petroleum Products (9.8) Crude Oil Including SPR (7.6) 6 4 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 4 16 14 Figure 2. US IMPORTS & EXPORTS OF CRUDE OIL & PETROLEUM PRODUCTS (million barrels per day, 4-week ma, nsa) 16 14 12 12 1 1 8 6 4 Crude Oil & Petroleum Products Imports (9.8) Exports (6.6) Net Imports (3.2) 8 6 4 2 2 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Page 3 / December 29, 217 / US Petroleum Products Supplied www.
8. 7.5 7. 6.5 6. 5.5 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. US EXPORTS OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS (million barrels per day, 4-week ma, nsa) Figure 3. Crude Oil & Petroleum Products (6.6) Crude Oil (1.4) 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Petroleum Products Supplied 8. 7.5 7. 6.5 6. 5.5 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. 22 Figure 4. US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS SUPPLIED (million barrels per day, 52-week ma) 22 21 21 2 Total* (2.1) 2 19 19 18 18 17 17 16 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 16 * Includes motor gasoline, distillate fuel oils, and all other products. Page 4 / December 29, 217 / US Petroleum Products Supplied www.
Petroleum Products Supplied Figure 5. US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS: GASOLINE SUPPLIED (million barrels per day, 52-week ma) 9. Gasoline (9.3) 9. 8. 8. 7.8 7.8 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.4 7.2 7. 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 7.2 7. 4.6 4.4 Figure 6. US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS: DISTILLATE SUPPLIED (million barrels per day, 52-week ma) 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.2 4. Distillate (4.) 4. 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.2 3. 3. 2.8 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 2.8 Page 5 / December 29, 217 / US Petroleum Products Supplied www.
8. Figure 7. US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS SUPPLIED (million barrels per day, 52-week ma) Petroleum Supplied 8. 7.5 Total Less Gasoline & Distillates (6.8) 7.5 7. 7. 6.5 6.5 6. 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 6. 21.5 21. 2.5 Figure 8. US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS SUPPLIED (million barrels per day, 4-week moving average, sa) 217 (2.6) 216 (19.8) 215 (2.) 214 (2.2) 213 (2.) Values shown are prior years weeks comparable to latest year s week /17 21.5 21. 2.5 2. 2. 19.5 19.5 19. 19. 18.5 18.5 18. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 217 18. Page 6 / December 29, 217 / US Petroleum Products Supplied www.
1.6 1.4 1.2 1. 9.8 9. 8. Figure 9. Petroleum Supplied US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS: GASOLINE SUPPLIED (million barrels per day, 4-week moving average, sa) 217 () 216 (9.) 215 (9.3) 214 () 213 (8.9) Values shown are prior years weeks comparable to latest year s week /17 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 217 1.6 1.4 1.2 1. 9.8 9. 8. 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4. 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 Figure 1. US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS: DISTILLATE SUPPLIED (million barrels per day, 4-week moving average, sa) Values shown are prior years weeks comparable to latest year s week /17 217 (4.1) 216 (4.) 215 (3.6) 214 (3.9) 213 (3.8) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 217 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4. 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 Page 7 / December 29, 217 / US Petroleum Products Supplied www.
11.2 11. 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1. 9.8 9. 8. 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.2 7. 6.8 6.6 Figure 11. US CRUDE OIL FIELD PRODUCTION (million barrels per day, 4-week moving average, sa) Crude Oil Production & Imports Values shown are prior years weeks comparable to latest year s week /17 213 (8.) 214 (9.1) 215 (9.1) 216 (8.7) 217 (9.7) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 217 11.2 11. 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1. 9.8 9. 8. 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.2 7. 6.8 6.6 1. 9.8 9. 8. 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.2 7. 6.8 6.6 Figure 12. US CRUDE OIL IMPORTS INCLUDING SPR (million barrels per day, 4-week moving average, sa) Values shown are prior years weeks comparable to latest year s week /17 217 (7.6) 216 (7.9) 215 (7.8) 214 (7.6) 213 (7.5) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 217 1. 9.8 9. 8. 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.2 7. 6.8 6.6 Page 8 / December 29, 217 / US Petroleum Products Supplied www.
4 Figure 13. INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (thousand, sa, 4-week ma) Misc. 14 12 3 Texas North Dakota 1 8 2 9/9 6 9/9 4 1 3 2 5 2 Ohio Pennsylvania 4 3 1 9/9 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 9/9 1 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 12 Figure 14. INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS: MAJOR OIL-PRODUCING STATES (thousand, sa, 4-week ma) 12 1 1 8 Total* 8 6 6 4 9/9 4 2 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 2 * Includes Texas, North Dakota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 9 / December 29, 217 / US Petroleum Products Supplied www.
7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 Figure 15. US CRUDE OIL & PETROLEUM PRODUCTS EXPORTS & IMPORTS (billion dollars, saar) Imports Exports Misc. 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Oct 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 15 1 5 5 Figure 16. US IMPORTS MINUS EXPORTS OF CRUDE OIL & PETROLEUM PRODUCTS (billion dollars, 12-month sum) 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 Oct 1 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Page 1 / December 29, 217 / US Petroleum Products Supplied www.
Misc. 55 5 Figure 17. MINING, OIL FIELD & GAS MACHINERY (billion dollars, saar) 55 5 45 45 4 4 35 35 3 25 Orders Shipments 3 25 2 2 15 1 Oct 15 1 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Source: Bureau of the Census. 5 18 Figure 18. NATURAL GAS: ACTIVE US RIG COUNT AND PRODUCTION 2.6 16 14 Rig Count: Gas (units) Oct 2.4 12 Natural Gas Production (trillion cubic feet, 12-month average) 2.2 1 2. 8 6 1.8 4 1.6 2 12/15 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Source: Baker Hughes Inc. and Oil Gas Journal. 1.4 Page 11 / December 29, 217 / US Petroleum Products Supplied www.
1. Figure 19. Large Speculators: Crude Oil PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT: NATURAL RESOURCES INDUSTRIES (millions, sa) 1..9.9.8.8 Nov.7.7.6.6.5 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics..5 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1 Figure 2. WTI CRUDE OIL FUTURES CONTRACTS HELD BY LARGE SPECULATORS (contracts of million barrels) 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission and US Department of Energy. 12/19 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1 Page 12 / December 29, 217 / US Petroleum Products Supplied www.
15 13 Figure 21. Large Speculators: Gasoline WTI CRUDE OIL FUTURES CONTRACTS HELD BY LARGE SPECULATORS (as a percent of US crude oil inventories*) 15 13 11 11 9 9 7 7 5 5 3 3 1 1-1 -3 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22-1 -3 * Excluding US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission and US Department of Energy. 11 1 Figure 22. GASOLINE FUTURES CONTRACTS HELD BY LARGE SPECULATORS (contracts of 42, US gallons) 11 1 9 9 8 7 12/19 8 7 6 5 4 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission and US Department of Energy. Page 13 / December 29, 217 / US Petroleum Products Supplied www.
5 Figure 23. Large Speculators: Gasoline GASOLINE FUTURES CONTRACTS HELD BY LARGE SPECULATORS (as a percent of US gasoline inventories) 5 4 4 3 2 3 2 1 1 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission and US Department of Energy. Page 14 / December 29, 217 / US Petroleum Products Supplied www.
Copyright (c) 217. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on www., blog., http://blog. and YRI s Apps for ipads and iphones are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any product, service, report, email or website are proprietary to and constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of www., blog., http://blog. and YRI s Apps for ipads and iphones may be downloaded, transmitted, broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Yardeni Research, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Yardeni Research, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights. The recipient should check any email and any attachments for the presence of viruses. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this company s emails, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available on request. requests@