Energy Plan Public Forum Presentation January 25, 2011
Today s Methods
2 Where is Electricity Required? Today 17% 65% 18%
3 Bermuda s Demand Profile & Peaks 2010 140 Winter Summer 120 100 shift Demand (MW) 80 60 40 20 0 00:00 00:45 01:30 02:15 03:00 03:45 04:30 05:15 06:00 06:45 07:30 08:15 09:00 09:45 10:30 11:15 12:00 12:45 13:30 14:15 15:00 15:45 16:30 17:15 18:00 18:45 19:30 20:15 21:00 21:45 22:30 23:15 00:00 reduce Winter = 111MW; Jan. 11 th @ 1851hrs Summer = 123MW ; Aug. 26 th @ 1355hrs
4 Electricity Model Central Generators Transmission Substations Distribution Residential Fuel Commercial
5 Fuel - Sources, Refinement & Shipments 7 shipments per year (~ 1 shipment every 2 months) ~ 1.02 million barrels per year Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) #2 Diesel Fuel Oil (LFO)
6 Fuel - Storage & Delivery Single 9 mile pipeline from ESSO to BELCO 6 week minimum reserve on island BELCO Storage HFO = 50k bbls LFO = 68k bbls ESSO Storage HFO = 235k bbls LFO = 80k bbls
7 Generation - Facilities BELCO = 167 MW Diesel and Gas Turbine Plant Tynes Bay Waste Treatment Facility = 3 MW Steam Plant
8 Generation Plant Inventory 20 Generation Units 13 Diesel Units Heavy Fuel Oil East Power Station = 8 Units Light Fuel Oil Old Power Station = 5 Units 7 Gas Turbine Units Light Fuel Oil West Power Station = 7 Units
9 Electricity Generation Diesel Plant East Power Station E7 Unit MAN B&W 14.3MW, Medium Speed, V-14 Diesel Engine MAN B&W Diesel Group is a world-leader of diesel engine technology Diesel generating units offer excellent durability under heavy duty use, the ability to use lower cost fuel oil, high thermal efficiency and proven technology Diesel Engine Alternator
Electricity Generation Gas Turbine Exhaust silencer Air intake Auxiliary room Alternator Control module Gear room GT room Compressor room 10
Central Plant 2010 East Power Station (EPS) Units E1, E2, E3, E4, E5, E6, E7, E8 Old Power Station (OPS) Units D3, D8, D10, D14, D15 West Power Station (WPS) Units GT3e&f, GT4, GT5, GT6, GT7, GT8 11
Generation - Unit Size and Utilisation 16.0 14.0 12.0 8000 7000 6000 Summer MCR (MW) 10.0 8.0 6.0 5000 4000 3000 2009 Running Hours 4.0 2000 2.0 BASE and INTERMEDIATE INTERMEDIATE and PEAK PEAK and EMERGENCY 1000 0.0 0 E8 E7 E6 E5 E4 E3 E2 E1 D15 D14 D10 D8 D3 GT8 GT7 GT6 GT5 GT4 GT3 A-F East Power Station Old Power Station West Power Station 12 Heavy Fuel Oil Units Light Fuel Oil Units
Where Are We Now?
GT Expansion & OPS Cooling Upgrades D3,D8,D10 Radiators West Power Station (WPS) Units GT6,7,8 14
Aging Generation Assets 40 35 Current Age Planned Service Life RISK - sweating the assets 30 25 Normal Diesel Service Life Normal GT Service Life 20 15 10 5 0 E8 E7 E6 E5 E4 E3 E2 E1 D15 D14 D10 D8 D3 GT8 GT7 GT6 GT5 GT4 GT3 A-F East Power Station Old Power Station West Power Station 15 Years Average = 16 years Average = 30 years Average = 10 years
Demand Population Saturation on the Horizon? Summer Eve Load Growth 200 180 Historic Data Upper Variance on trendline Lower Variance on trendline Current Load Selected for Load flow Study Population Based Trendline (Historic Data) 160 140 MW 120 100 80 60 16 40 Year 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Where Are We Now? No More Plan Bs Generation Plant Capacity Vs Demand 225 200 GT3A-D retirement; GT6-8 commissioned D3, D8,D10 Cooling Improvements D2 Unplanned Retirement Summer MCR Review N-3 deficiency will continue to increase 175 D3,D8,D10 Retirements 150 E1, E2 Retirements GT3 E&F Retirements MW 125 GT4, E3, E4 Retirements 100 75 Tynes Bay 3rd Stream D14, D15 Retirements (end of OPS) 50 25 0 17 GT5 Retirement E5, E6 Retirements Max Demand (1.5% Historic Trend) Plant Capacity Max Demand + Planning Margin (N-3-TB) Year
2013 & Beyond
19 Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) Process
20 The New Energy Equation
LSRE - Firm Versus Intermittent Renewables Firm Versus Intermittent Renewables Wind Waste-to-Energy Solar PV Ocean 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Day 21
Large Scale Renewable Energy (LSRE) - SOI Proposals Plasco Intrinergy Triton/REH RES IPC Waste-to-Energy (Municipal Waste) Waste-to-Energy (Wood Biomass) Ocean (Wave) Solar (Photovoltaic) Wind (Offshore) March 31 st 2009 April 7 th 2009 22
New Energy Equation Energy Vs Renewable Target 1,000 900 800 700 600 GWh 500 400 300 200 100-2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Small Scale Ren.: 2GWh @ 2010 & 1.25%/y growth Solar PV: 8.6 MW AC Wind: 21.6MW + 14.4MW @ 34% CF Tynes Bay: 3.2 MW->7.3 MW "20% Renewables line" Gross Energy Generated Growth Forecast 23
New Energy Equation Plan Capacity vs Demand Generation Plant Capacity Vs Demand 225 GT3A-D retirement; GT6-8 commissioned D3, D8,D10 Cooling Improvements D2 Unplanned Retirement 200 Summer MCR Review 175 150 D3,D8,D10 Retirements E1, E2 Retirements MW 125 GT3 E&F Retirements GT4, E3, E4 Retirements 100 Tynes Bay 3rd Stream D14, D15 Retirements (end of OPS) 75 2xMSD4 2xMSD4 GT5 Retirement 50 2xMSD4 1xAGT1 E5, E6 Retirements 25 0 24 Max Demand (1.5% Historic Trend) Plant Capacity Max Demand + Planning Margin (N-3-TB) NPS + EPS Rebuild 1xAGT1 2xMSD1 Year
Central Plant Development Plan 2010 East Power Station (EPS) Units E1, E2, E3, E4, E5, E6, E7, E8 Old Power Station (OPS) Units D3, D8, D10, D14, D15 West Power Station (WPS) Units GT3e&f, GT4, GT5, GT6, GT7, GT8 25
26 Central Plant Development Plan 2013
27 Central Plant Development Plan 2015
28 Solar Development The Finger 2015
29 Central Plant Development Plan 2017
30 Offshore Wind Development - 2018
Wind Development 2018 & 2020 General Electric (GE) 3.6 MW turbine specifically developed for offshore use. 31 Hub height above water level between 80 and 90 m and a rotor diameter of 104 m meaning that the distance from water level to the upper blade tip will be in the order of 140 m.
32 Central Plant Development Plan 2019
33 Offshore Wind Development 2020
34 Central Plant Development Plan 2021
35 Central Plant Development Plan 2025
36 Central Plant Development Plan 2026
North Power Station Key Points The first phase of the new diesel power station must be commissioned by May 2013. Government approvals must be obtained by May 1 st, 2011. The need for new diesel plant is primarily driven by the essential and imminent retirement of the Old Power Station which has the highest environmental impact. Intermittent Renewable Energy Sources are incapable of replacing retired diesel plant at this time. The Central Power Plant is the only site available for a diesel power station development at this time. 37
New Energy Equation - Geographically Preferred East End DG Plant 38 Preferred West End DG Plant Central Plant Optimum for City B F Island Wide Small Scale Distributed Generation SSRE Generators (Standby & CHP) Energy Efficiency Conservation Demand Side Management Smart Metering / Grid
Any Questions?