Interoperability Dialogue between the EU and its EuropeAid 2008/155-683 TRAX TRACECA ROUTE ATTRACTIVENESS INDEX This project is implemented by This project is funded by the European Union TRT Trasporti e Territorio, Alfen Consult GmbH, Dornier Consulting GmbH and PTV AG
CONTENT OF THE PRESENTATION 1 2 What is TRAX The ROUTES 3 The Calculation Model 4 RESULTS
Defintion of TRAX TRAX stands for TRACECA Route Attractiveness index It measures the attractiveness of a freight route based on Criteria Time from Origin to Destination Cost used for Cargo movement from Origin to Destination Reliability Safety and Security of the cargo 1 2 3 4
Why TRAX To analyze and understands attractiveness of TRACECA routes compared to competing routes Find out unrevealed real preferences of transport operators decision making on the route and modal choice along the TRACECA corridor Work out solutions for improving the attractiveness of TRACECA routes for freight operators Prioritize actions with highest impact on route attractiveness improvements Monitor attractiveness improvements over time periods (e.g yearly) 1 2 3 4
TRAX Rationale transport decision made by logistics providers can be reduced to a rationale decision of a transport cost/time bundle which can be ranked in order ( opportunity cost ) Factors causing and variations (uncertainty) in transport time can be also reflected by opportunity cost in the transport price (detours, border times, unexpected incidents, higher capital cost of transport equipment-in-use etc) TRAX is an attempt to capture the complex transport decision by a transparent and simplified model LPI logistics index as provided by the World Bank concentrates on the overall logistics performance of countries not on applicable on Routes and corridors 1 2 3 4
Methodology and data sources Four Steps Methodology Obtained and analyzed driver journals from IRU to reflect real life costs and times for transportation from/to EU-Central Asia via different alternative Routes Questionnaire / Interviews with selected representative freight forwarders in Europe / Caucasus / Central Asia to obtain weights for the criteria Calculate Route Index for the three routes Analyze attractiveness blockers and develop remedies action plans 1 2 3 4
Methodology and data sources Step 1 Obtained driver journals from IRU to reflect real life costs and times for transportation from/to EU- Central Asia via different alternative Routes. On a base of driver journals the next data is available to analyze - Identify the Routes for analyses - Time: Min and Max Time on each route: Driving / Wait, Stops (e.g. procedures on border crossing) - Cost: min and max costs of transportation, including official, non-official payments on route and at border or ports 1 2 3 4
STEP 1 Three most popular alternative Routes from EU to Central Asia Considered Based on driven routes journals obtained from IRU in the framework of NELTI October 2009 1. Trans Russian Route 2. Trans Caucasus Route 3. Trans Turkey / Iran Route 1 2 3 4
Methodology and data sources Step 2 Questionnaire / Interviews with selected representative freight forwarders and road carriers in Europe / Caucasus / Central Asia To obtain understanding for business decisions making To obtain weights for the such criteria as costs, time, reliability and safety from the business, through paired judgment for the selected criteria Quantify Safety and Security (Risk) To find out the hottest problems from business focus 1 2 3 4
STEP 2 Questionnaire / Interviews Weights of criteria for selection of transport routes WEIGHT FOR STRETCHES FOR NODES COST 13% 22% TIME 17% 29% RELIABILITY 29% 49% RISK 41% - 1 2 3 4
Methodology and data sources Step 3 Calculate Route Index for the three routes Step 4 Analyze attractiveness blockers and develop remedies action plans 1 2 3 4
STEP 3 Calculation Approach Each corridor is deivided into a number of stretches and nodes along the whole corridor Stretches are roads or Ferries Nodes are as borders, ports, loading points, logistics centres etc and are assumed having no physical dimension We speak about corridors on a broader sense because each corridor might comprise many alternative routes (averaging) Stretch 1 Node 12 Stretch 2 1 2 3 4
STEP 3 Results TRAX Index for 1. Trans Russian Route 2. Trans Caucasus Route 3. Trans Turkey Route TRAX index for stretches of the routes TRAX index for nodes of the routes Regional evaluation: TRAX for sub regions Waiting times and costs on nodes and stretches Level of non official payments, others 1 2 3 4
TRAX FOR ROUTES Interoperability Dialogue between the EU and its TRANS-RUSSIA ROUTE TRANS-TURKEY ROUTE TRANS-CAUCASUS ROUTE 11243 10849 8839 8169 7776 6358 6767 6373 3032 2994 1896 1255 72 76 72 76 146 INDEX TRAVEL COST TIME COST RELIABILITY SAFETY/SECURITY 146 TRAX INDEX INDEX TRAVEL COST TIME COST RELIABILITY SAFETY/SECURITY TRANS-RUSSIA ROUTE 3032 1255 6767 6373 72 TRANS-TURKEY ROUTE 6358 1896 7776 8839 76 TRANS-CAUCASUS ROUTE 8169 2994 11243 10849 146
TRAX INDEX - STRETCHES TRANS-RUSSIA ROUTE TRANS-TURKEY ROUTE TRANS-CAUCASUS ROUTE 3723 3619 5541 1192 1160 2368 442 457 1572 955 1862 1662 969 533 514 INDEX TRAVEL COST TIME COST RELIABILITY SAFETY/SECURITY TRAX STRETCH INDEX INDEX TRAVEL COST TIME COST RELIABI LITY SAFETY/ SECURITY KM HRS TRANS-RUSSIA ROUTE 1160 442 3619 955 514 5004 84 TRANS-TURKEY ROUTE 1192 457 3723 969 533 5384 87 TRANS-CAUCASUS ROUTE 2368 1572 5541 1862 1662 5740 139
TRAX INDEX - NODES TRANS-RUSSIA ROUTE TRANS-TURKEY ROUTE TRANS-CAUCASUS ROUTE 7870 6493 5353 5702 5418 4053 3148 2053 1964 1440 813 8987 INDEX TRAVEL COST TIME COST RE COST TRAX NODES INDEX INDEX TRAVEL COST TIME COST RELIABILITY HRS TRANS-RUSSIA ROUTE 2053 813 3148 5418 73 6 NODES TRANS-TURKEY ROUTE 5353 1440 4053 7870 94 5 TRANS-CAUCASUS ROUTE 6493 1964 5702 8987 129 8
TRAX DETAILS
TRANS RUSSIAN : TRAX in detail Region TRAX TRR-Europe TRAX TRR-RF TRAX TRR-CA total Countries Belarus Russia Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan TRAX total 863 898 1452 3213 TRAX stretches 404 398 359 1160 TRAX nodes 459 500 1093 2053
TRANS RUSSIAN : TRAX in detail STRETCHES and NODES TRAX Are apr the same in Belarus NODES create more difficulties for Russia then STRETCHES NODES in Central Asia contribute about 75% of TRAX Region TRAX TRR-Europe TRAX TRR-RF TRAX TRR-CA total Countries Belarus Russia Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan TRAX total 863 898 1452 3213 TRAX stretches 404 398 359 1160 TRAX nodes 459 500 1093 2053
TRANS RUSSIAN : TRAX in detail TRAX for Central Asia in 2 times higher than West part of the route Region TRAX TRR-Europe TRAX TRR-RF TRAX TRR-CA total Countries Belarus Russia Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan TRAX total 863 898 1452 3213 TRAX stretches 404 398 359 1160 TRAX nodes 459 500 1093 2053
TRANS CAUCASUS: TRAX in detail POLAND KAZAKHSTAN UKRAINE ROMANIA BULGARIA GEORGIA UZBEKISTAN KIRGIZSTAN AZERBAIJAN Region TRAX TCR-Europe TRAX TCR-Caucasus TRAX TCR-CA Countries Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria Black Sea ferry, Georgia, Azerbajidzan, Caspian Ferry Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan total TRAX total 2765 3480 2616 8861 TRAX stretches 438 1381 549 2368 TRAX nodes 2327 2099 2067 6493
TRANS CAUCASUS: TRAX in detail POLAND KAZAKHSTAN UKRAINE ROMANIA In all regions nodes are the worst component BULGARIA GEORGIA UZBEKISTAN KIRGIZSTAN AZERBAIJAN Region TRAX TCR-Europe TRAX TCR-Caucasus TRAX TCR-CA Countries Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria Black Sea ferry, Georgia, Azerbajidzan, Caspian Ferry Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan total TRAX total 2765 3480 2616 8861 TRAX stretches 438 1381 549 2368 TRAX nodes 2327 2099 2067 6493
TRANS CAUCASUS: TRAX in detail POLAND KAZAKHSTAN ROMANIA UKRAINE Caucasus has lowest attractiveness? BULGARIA GEORGIA UZBEKISTAN KIRGIZSTAN AZERBAIJAN Region TRAX TCR-Europe TRAX TCR-Caucasus TRAX TCR-CA Countries Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria Black Sea ferry, Georgia, Azerbaijdzan, Caspian Ferry Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan total TRAX total 2765 3480 2616 8861 TRAX stretches 438 1381 549 2368 TRAX nodes 2327 2099 2067 6493
TRANS TURKEY : TRAX in detail BULGARIA UZBEKISTAN KIRGIZSTAN TURKMENISTAN TURKEY IRAN Region TRAX TTR-Europe- Turkey TRAX TTR-Middle east Countries Bulgaria, Turkey Iran TRAX TTR-CA Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan TRAX total 1007 3113 2425 6545 TRAX stretches 410 390 392 1192 TRAX nodes 597 2723 2034 5353 total
TRANS TURKEY : TRAX in detail BULGARIA UZBEKISTAN KIRGIZSTAN TURKEY STRETCHES ATTRATIVNESS TURKMENISTAN ARE ALMOST THE SAME IRAN Region TRAX TTR-Europe- Turkey TRAX TTR-Middle east Countries Bulgaria, Turkey Iran TRAX TTR-CA Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan TRAX total 1007 3113 2425 6545 TRAX stretches 410 390 392 1192 TRAX nodes 597 2723 2034 5353 total
TRANS TURKEY : TRAX in detail BULGARIA UZBEKISTAN TURKEY NODES ON THE EAST. ANY REASONS TO IMPROUVE THE ROADS? TURKMENISTAN KIRGIZSTAN IRAN Region TRAX TTR-Europe- Turkey TRAX TTR-Middle east Countries Bulgaria, Turkey Iran TRAX TTR-CA Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan TRAX total 1007 3113 2425 6545 TRAX stretches 410 390 392 1192 TRAX nodes 597 2723 2034 5353 total
RISK FACTORS (Empirical) COUNTRY Risk Factor Armenia 0,53 Azerbaijan 0,38 Bulgaria 0,03 Georgia 0,38 Kazakhstan 0,19 Kyrgyzstan 0,35 Moldova 0,15 Tajikistan 0,39 Turkey 0,04 Turkmenistan 0,26 Ukraine 0,06 Uzbekistan 0,17 Islamic Republic of Iran 0,25 Russian Federation 0,13 Romania 0,06 Belarus 0,15