Energy Efficiency: An engine for growth and development Philippe Benoit Head, Energy Efficiency and Environment Division, IEA 8 June 2015
EE: an important role?
Energy efficiency can help drive economic prosperity 4% GDP in Efficient World Scenario versus New Policies Scenario, 2035 3% 2% 1% Japan & Korea OECD Europe United States China India Cumulative investments in energy efficiency of $12 trillion are more than offset by fuel savings & trigger economic growth of a cumulative $18 trillion OECD/IEA 2012
EE: Big, invisible and ignored
IEA fuel market reports
EE: Inputs - Investments
Frequency Global Energy Efficiency Market Estimated to be between USD 310-360 billion/yr 250 Monte Carlo: Distribution of energy efficiency market estimation 200 150 100 50 0 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 >600 USD Billion Signals point to further growth
USD billion EE vs other supply (2011) 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Estimated range of USD 147 to 300 billion 0 Sources: BNEF, IEA IEA EEMR 2013 Upstream oil and gas * Coal, oil and gas electricity generation *** Renewable electricity generation ** Energy efficiency (2012) R s
EE s untapped A potential Energy efficiency potential used by sector in the WEO 2012 New Policies Scenario 100% 80% 60% Unrealised energy efficiency potential Realised energy efficiency potential 40% 20% Industry Transport Power generation Buildings
EE: Outputs
Facing up to the Fuels Competition EE keeps producing : 1999 Energy Efficiency 1999 2004 2004 2015 2015
Mtoe EE: Big part of energy landscape TFC fuels (IEA-11) incl. EE savings Output - Energy efficiency: the first fuel 4 000 3 500 3 000 2 500 Hypothetical energy use had there been no energy efficiency improvements Savings Oil Gas 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 Total Final Consumption 0 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Coal Electricity Other *IEA-11: Australia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden, United Kingdom, United States
Mtoe Energy efficiency: the first fuel Supplied (1336 Mtoe) more in 2011 to meet energy service demand than oil (1200 Mtoe), electricity (552 Mtoe), natural gas (509 Mtoe) in IEA-11* 1 400 Total final consumption of fuels and energy savings from energy efficiency in 11 IEA countries in 2011 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 TFC 0 Oil Gas Coal Electricity Other Efficiency savings *IEA-11: Australia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden, United Kingdom, United States
Mtoe EE: an invisible power-house Energy efficiency savings in IEA-11 countries rival TFC of major energy consuming countries and regions (e.g., EE improvements over the last 4 decades saved more energy in 2011 than TFC in EU) 1 800 1 600 1 400 1 200 TFC 1 000 800 600 400 200 0 Energy efficiency savings of 11 IEA member countries Asia (excluding China) China EU United States
EE: Looking beyond savings to raising standards of living
EE: Looking beyond savings to raising standards of living
EU looks to EE to reduce primary energy consumption
Mtoe USD Billions 2005 PPP Decoupling GDP from Energy 20 000 160 000 18 000 140 000 120 000 16 000 14 000 12 000 10 000 100 000 80 000 60 000 40 000 20 000 TPES 6DS GDP (right axis) 8 000 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 0
Mtoe USD Billions 2005 PPP Decoupling GDP from Energy 20 000 160 000 18 000 140 000 120 000 16 000 14 000 12 000 10 000 100 000 80 000 60 000 40 000 20 000 TPES 6DS GDP (right axis) 8 000 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 0
Mtoe USD Billions 2005 PPP Decoupling GDP from Energy 20 000 160 000 18 000 140 000 120 000 16 000 14 000 12 000 10 000 100 000 80 000 60 000 40 000 20 000 TPES 6DS GDP (right axis) 8 000 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 0
Mtoe USD Billions 2005 PPP Decoupling GDP from Energy 20 000 160 000 18 000 140 000 120 000 16 000 14 000 12 000 10 000 100 000 80 000 60 000 40 000 20 000 TPES 6DS BAU-Low EE GDP (right axis) 8 000 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 0
Mtoe USD Billions 2005 PPP Decoupling GDP from Energy 20 000 160 000 18 000 140 000 16 000 14 000 12 000 10 000 120 000 100 000 80 000 60 000 40 000 20 000 TPES 6DS BAU-Low EE 4DS 2DS High Productivity GDP (right axis) 8 000 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 0
Energy efficiency for many emerging economies: from doing more with less to to doing even more with more
Energy efficiency for many emerging economies: from doing more with less to doing even more with more
Billion pkm Billion tkm Transport: a shift in geography Incremental transport demand estimated to come from non- OECD: source for demand translates into EE market opportunity 70 000 60 000 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 Passenger 30 000 25 000 20 000 15 000 10 000 5 000 Freight 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 OECD Non-OECD World Source: Energy Technology Perspectives, IEA
Shifting mobility demand growth Personal passenger light vehicles: Drivers of demand Developed economies Structural effect Developing regions Income effect Sources: elaboration of national and international databases, building on the information referenced in UNECE, 2012
Shifting mobility demand growth Passenger vehicle growth to 2050 (6DS) Source: IEA Mobility Model Large projected increase in non-oecd countries
km/lge Transport: Broad use of vehicle fuel economy standards Vehicle fuel economy standards (VFE) affect 70% of global new vehicle fleet (50 million vehicles in 2011) Standards could achieve between USD 40 and 190 billion in fuel savings by 2020 pending ambition and effectiveness Enacted fuel economy standards for personal vehicles 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Source: Global fuel economy initiative European Union Japan India China Korea United States Mexico Canada
EE: multiple benefits for emerging economies and others
Exploiting the multiple benefits of EE
Energy efficiency is... a domestic fuel ( the home-grown fuel ) Microsoft.com
Impact of EE improvements since 1990 Total EE savings = 196 Mtoe Other Savings, 196 97 Other 97 TFC for USA (2012) Electricity, 321 Electricity, 321 Oil, 719 Oil, 719 Natural gas, 296 Natural gas, 296 Total TFC = 1,432 Mtoe Total TFC (EE adjusted)= 1,629 Mtoe
Other 97 TFC for USA (2012) Electricity, 321 Oil, 719 Natural gas, 296 Total TFC = 1,432 Mtoe
Exploiting the multiple benefits of EE
Portfolio of actions to reduce energy sector emissions Gt CO 2 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2011 2020 2030 2040 2050 Nuclear 7% Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 2% Renewables 30% End-use fuel switching 9% CCS 14% End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%
Portfolio of actions to reduce energy sector emissions EE provides largest contribution to abatement Gt CO 2 60 50 40 Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 2% 30 20 10 0 2011 2020 2030 2040 2050 End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%
Exploiting the multiple benefits of EE
Dirty air prompts free public transport in Paris Public transportation in the capital will be "gratuit" from Friday morning to Sunday night, as officials battle against a spike in "dangerously" poor air quality. Velib' rental bikes and the car-sharing Autolib' scheme are also on the house. Shifting to more efficient transport to fight air pollution March 11, 2014 Credit: Patrick Kovarik AFP
Exploiting the multiple benefits of EE
EE Important for developing countries Energy access Economic development Poverty alleviation Combatting local pollution Climate change resilience Helping countries to expand access, effectively enabling them to supply power to more people through the existing energy infrastructure. Supporting economic growth through various aggregate benefits, for example by improving industrial productivity and reducing fuel import bills. Increasing the affordability of energy services for poorer families by reducing the per-unit cost of lighting, heating, refrigeration and other services. Reducing the need for energy generation and lower associated emissions through energy efficiency measures on both supply side and demand side. Reducing the need for energy infrastructure, energy efficiency reduces the amount of energy assets exposed to extreme weather events. Multiple benefits are of particular importance for emerging economies and developing countries
Designing analytic tools: motivation counts
What about where reducing energy consumption is less important than raising standards of living?
GJ/occupied dwelling Australia Austria Canada Czech Republic Developing country context may require adjustment to metrics Finland France Germany GJ/m² Greece Italy Japan Australia Korea Austria Netherlands Canada New Zealand Czech Spain Finland Sweden France Switzerland Germany United Kingdom Italy United States Ireland Korea Netherl New Slovak Spain Sweden Switzer United United 0.07 Residential lighting intensity 0.06 2001 0.05 25 0.04 Residential energy intensity of water 0.03 heating 2006 20 15 10 0.02 0.01 0 2001 2006 2011 5 2011 0
Energy intensity to Energy productivity
Some conclusions Energy Efficiency is a strong and sound tool to promote growth and development
Some conclusions but Energy Efficiency: is under-appreciated is under-utilized requires more analysis, understanding and support to produce its multiple benefits. This E4 training week is part of the effort
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