Less car dependent cities Planning for low carbon in Oslo Aud Tennøy, PhD Urban and Regional Planning Chief Researcher Sustainable Urban Development and Mobility Institute of Transport Economics (TOI) www.toi.no https://www.toi.no/sustainable-urban-development-and-mobility/category825.html
Interesting times Paradigm shifts on a critical turning point Side 2
Automobile city Mobility Sustainable city Accessibility Side 3
Interesting times Paradigm shifts on a critical turning point Norway: The zero-growth objective Planning for less car-dependent and transport demanding cities seems like the obvious solution: Land use development as densification and transformation rather than sprawl, right location Improving public transport services, and conditions for walking and bicycling Fiscal and physical restrictions on car-usage Side 4
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Densification in nodal points Side 7
Effects of location in nodal points Car shares to/from housing located here Rest of Oslo Nydalen-Storo Bryn-Helsfyr Oslo inner city Oslo city centre 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Car shares to/from work-places located here Rest of Oslo Nydalen-Storo Bryn-Helsfyr Oslo inner city Oslo city centre 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Side 8
Car free city centre Oslo Side 9
Car free city centre Car free city centre in Oslo: Remove on street parking Strong restrictions on through-fare Designated spaces for goods deliveries and utility cars Various measures for improving urban life To achieve: More enjoyable and lively city centre Improved accessibility by other modes than car Reduced car-usage to, from an in city centre and elsewhere Improve conditions for deliveries Reduce local pollution and CO2 emissions Car shares to/from city centre are currently 7-10 % Side 10
High expectations! Our research ex ante data (May 2017) Commuters in Oslo (N=5400): 43 percent believe more people will use the city centre, it will become more vibrant, 17 percent believe the opposite 22 percent believe they will visit the city centre more often, 12 percent less often Truck drivers 45 of 65 truck drivers are dissatisfied with the current goods delivery situation in the city centre 35 of 64 truck drivers believe it will become better, 11 believe worse Side 11
Urban road capacity Plans for massively increasing urban motorway capacity Side 12
Experiences capacity reduction Reduced capacity in 10 tunnels on urban main roads due to maintenance Bryns tunnel: AADT 70 000, capacity reduced from four to two lanes for six months Side 13
Capacity reduction: Effects on commute satisfaction Satsified and very satisfied 72 73 Neither nor 14 14 Very satisfied and satisfied 13 13 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2016 2015 Tennøy et al. 2017 Side 14
Transport quality Insurance company relocated from nodal point to city centre - modal shares of car reduced from 48 to 9 per cent Satisfaction commute before relocation 30 35 24 10 1 Satisfaction commute after relocation 26 38 20 12 4 Satisfaction car drivers before 34 37 21 8 0 Satisfaction car drivers after 23 37 17 17 7 Satisfaction public transport before 16 34 35 14 2 Satisfaction public transport after 23 39 21 12 5 Satisfaction walking/bicycling before 66 27 6 20 Satisfaction walking/bicycling after 56 33 8 30 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Very satisfied Satisfied Neither nor Dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Christiansen and Julsrud (2014) Side 15
Urban road capacity 2018: Reallocating one of three car lanes to a public transport lane (trial) Side 16
Planning for less car-dependent cities How and why do we still plan and develop cardependent cities? What needs to change if we instead are to plan and develop less car-dependent cities? Planners (and others) Expert knowledge Including methods Plan-making processes Side 17
In cases resulting in plans for increased road capacity: Other objectives were seen as competing to reducing traffic volumes, and prioritised Realistic traffic reducing alternatives were never introduced or assessed growth understood as inevitable Methods applied (transport models) could not handle traffic reducing measures In assessments, time savings strongly affected the costbenefit results Expanding road capacity was the only possible answer Side 18
IF planning for less car-dependent cities: We need to do things differently than before We need to reframe the problem - and potential solutions Tennøy (2010) Side 19
Quality of transport systems Traffic volumes (vkm) Travel behaviour Land use Tennøy (2015) Side 20
IF planning for less car-dependent cities: We need to do things differently than before We need to reframe the problem - and potential solutions Tennøy (2010) We need to change how we think and act Side 21
Thank you! Side 22
References Christiansen, Petter and Tom Erik Julsrud (2014) Effects of relocation to a transport focal point TØI report 1344/2014 Tennøy et al (2017) BYTRANS: Effects and consequences of capacity in the Bryns tunnel Per 2016. TØI report1566/2017, https://www.toi.no/publikasjoner/bytrans-effekter-og-konsekvenser-av-kapasitetsreduksjon-i-brynstunnelen-per-2016-article34387-8.html Tennøy, A., Hansson, L., Lissandrello, E. and Næss, P. (2016) How planners use and non-use of expert knowledge affect the goal achievement potential of plans: Experiences from strategic land use and transport planning processes in three Scandinavian cities. Progress in Planning, 109, 1-32. doi:10.1016/j.progress.2015.05.002. Open access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/s0305900615000306 Næss, P., Hansson, L., Richardson, T. & Tennøy, A. (2013) Knowledge-based land use and transport planning? Consistency and gap between state-of-the-art knowledge and knowledge claims in planning documents in three Scandinavian city regions. Planning Theory & Practice, 14(4), 470-491. Tennøy, A. (2012) Land use and transport planning institutional and organisational conditions for integration and goal achievement. Kart og Plan no. 4-2012, 258 268. Tennøy, A. (2012) How and why planners make plans which, if implemented, cause growth in traffic volumes. Explanations related to the expert knowledge, the planners and the plan-making processes. PhD thesis 2012:01 at Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Department of landscape architecture and spatial planning. Tennøy, A. (2010) Why we fail to reduce urban road traffic volumes: Does it matter how planners frame the problem? Transport Policy 17 (2010) 216 233. Tennøy, A. (2009) Why we fail to reduce urban road traffic volumes: A challenge of double complexity. Kart og Plan no. 1/2009 27 36. Tennøy, A. (2008) Consequences of EIA Prediction Uncertainty on Mitigation, Follow-Up and Post-Auditing. In Schmidt, M.; Glasson, J.; Emmelin, L.; Helbron, H. (Eds.) (2008): Standards and Thresholds for Impact Assessment, Springer. Tennøy, Aud, Jens Kværner, Karl Idar Gjerstad (2006) Uncertainty in environmental impact assessment predictions the need for better communication and more transparency. Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal, Volume 24, No 1 March 2006, 45 56. http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/beech/iapa/2006/00000024/00000001 Side 23
Incentives electric vehicles Exemption, registration tax 1996 Free toll roads 1997 Free parking 1998 Exemption, value added tax 2001 Access to bus lanes 2003 Reduced annual tax 2005 Reduced company car tax Reduced rate ferries 2009 Side 24
Market shares sales new cars Side 25
105 800 BEVs (March-2017), 4% of total fleet, on Norwegian roads (passenger vehicles, M1) In addition 37 450 PHEVs (1.4% of fleet) 29509 Number of BEVs in the passenger vehicle fleet 16965 12287 9953 Ca 8000 7803 6982 *Source: Norwegian PEV survey. 3111 BEV owners, 2065 PHEV owners, 3080 ICEV owners. March 2016,TOI report 1492/2016. 2014 survey: TOI report 1329/2014 Side
BEV adoption areas: Started in cities and surrounding areas, and where free toll roads an advantage, now everywhere 12/2008 12/2011 09/2013 10/2014 04/2015 12/2015 12/2016 Tromsø 1.4% Narvik 2.2% Harstad 2.1% Bodø 4.8% Malvik 9.7% Trondheim 5.3% Kristiansund 1.9% Averøy 11.3% Molde 1.7% Lillehammer 1.3% Hamar 2.0% Oslo 5.8% Askøy 14.3% Bergen 8.3% Kvinnherad 3.7% Finnøy 18.6% Stavanger 4% Asker 10.1% Drammen 2.5% Kristiansand 6.8% Side
Experiences capacity reduction Reduced capacity in 10 tunnels on urban main roads due to maintenance Bryns tunnel: AADT 70 000, capacity reduced from four to two lanes from February 2016 to April 2017 Side 28
Findings traffic and speed Tennøy et al. 2017 Side 29
Rerouting as adaptation? Traffic volumes in different registration points morning rush Lost about 3000 vehicles in morning rush and about 6000 in afternoon rush Tennøy et al. 2017 Side 30
Modal change? Walking 4 7 6 6 Bicycling 11 14 15 17 Public transport 40 46 45 50 Car - driver 27 29 29 39 Car - passenger Other 1 2 3 2 1 2 3 2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2017 (N=625) 2016 (N=1029) 2016 (n=355) 2015 (n=373) Tennøy et al. 2017 Side 31