Global Climate Action Agenda: Transport Action Event COP 22, Marrakech, Morocco 12 November 2016 Accelerating electric vehicle deployment and support policies Kamel Ben Naceur Director Directorate of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks International Energy Agency
The Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI) and IEA s role in EV support EVI: Multi-government policy forum established in 2009 under the Clean Energy Ministerial, coordinated by IEA 2015: Paris Declaration on Electro-Mobility and Climate Change and Call to Action Global EV Outlook 2016, released on 31 May EVI supports IEA data and analysis which are the basis of WEO and ETP scenarios
Well to wheel GHG emissions (GtCO 2 eq) The role of electric vehicles (EVs) in sustainable transport GHG emissions transport 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Electric vehicles are a major component of the 2DS, and vital to achieving well below 2 degree ambitions
Well to wheel GHG emissions (GtCO 2 eq) The role of electric vehicles (EVs) in sustainable transport GHG emissions transport 14 4DS 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Electric vehicles are a major component of the 2DS, and vital to achieving well below 2 degree ambitions
Well to wheel GHG emissions (GtCO 2 eq) The role of electric vehicles (EVs) in sustainable transport GHG emissions transport 14 4DS 12 10 8 6 2DS 4 2 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Electric vehicles are a major component of the 2DS, and vital to achieving well below 2 degree ambitions
Well to wheel GHG emissions (GtCO 2 eq) The role of electric vehicles (EVs) in sustainable transport 4DS to 2DS Aviation reduction 14 GHG emissions transport 4DS Shipping reduction Rail reduction 12 Trucks reduction Buses reduction Cars and LCV reduction 2 and 3 wheelers reduction 2DS 10 8 Aviation reduc Shipping reduc Rail reduction Trucks reducti Buses reductio 4DS 2DS 6 2DS Cars and LCV r 2 and 3 wheele 2DS 4 4DS 2DS 2 050 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Electric vehicles are a major component of the 2DS, and vital to achieving well below 2 degree ambitions
Well to wheel GHG emissions (GtCO 2 eq) The role of electric vehicles (EVs) in sustainable transport GHG emissions transport 14 12 10 2DS Aviation Shipping Rail Trucks Buses 8 6 4 2DS Avia Ship Rail Truc Buse Cars 2 an 2DS Cars and LCV 2 and 3 wheelers 2 2DS 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Electric vehicles are a major component of the 2DS, and vital to achieving well below 2 degree ambitions
Electric car stock (thousands) EV stock evolution, 2010-2015 1 400 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 0 Evolution of the global BEV and PHEV stock, 2010-2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Others Canada Germany United Kingdom France Norway Netherlands Japan China United States BEV BEV + PHEV Policy support needs to be continued to reach the very ambitious targets of 30% of sales by 2030 set during COP 21
Battery cost (USD/kWh) Battery energy density (Wh/L) Improvement in battery costs and energy density 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 400Wh/L 295Wh/L $268/kWh $125/kWh 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2022 Battery cost (PHEV) 2022 DOE Battery cost target (PHEV) 2020 Tesla Battery cost target (BEV) 2022 GM Battery cost target (BEV) Energy density (PHEV) 2022 DOE Energy density target (PHEV) 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Battery costs and energy density showed impressive improvements over the past decade RD&D investments will be important to ensure that this trend continues
EV support policies needed in multiple fields of mobility CO 2 -based, technology-based differentiated taxation and rebates Feebates VAT exemptions Direct public investment Public-private partnerships Charger standards harmonization Fast and slow charging network planning Purchase incentives Charging infrastructure roll-out Circulation incentives Differentiated plates Access to bus lanes Free/dedicated parking Circulation/congestion charge exemption Standards, regulations and mandates Fuel economy standards Fuel taxes Public fleets, taxi fleets initiatives
EV support policies needed in multiple fields of mobility CO 2 -based, technology-based differentiated taxation and rebates Feebates VAT exemptions Direct public investment Public-private partnerships Charger standards harmonization Fast and slow charging network planning Purchase incentives Charging infrastructure roll-out Circulation incentives Differentiated plates Access to bus lanes Free/dedicated parking Circulation/congestion charge exemption Standards, regulations and mandates Fuel economy standards Fuel taxes Public fleets, taxi fleets initiatives
Thank you The Global EV Outlook 2016 is freely accessible online
Supplementary slides
The role of electric cars in sustainable transport Electric cars benefits Climate Health Energy security Better energy efficiency than internal combustion engines Absence of tailpipe emissions (CO 2 and pollutants) Low-carbon mode, provided that the electricity mix is low-carbon Reduction of oil dependency Main hurdles and challenges Upfront cost Charging infrastructure and range anxiety (paramount in urban areas) (+ potential for harvesting local, renewable energy sources) Need for policy action to lift up barriers, spur adoption and harvest the benefits of EVs.
New electric car registrations (thousands) China United States Netherlands Norway United Kingdom Japan Germany France Sweden Others Market share (2015) GEVO 2016: the electric car market in 2015 250 25% 2010 200 150 20% 15% 2011 2012 100 50 0 10% 5% 0% 2013 2014 2015 2015 market share 550,000 EVs sold in 2015 (+ 70%) China became the first EV market in 2015 9/10 EVs sold in 8 countries (China, US, Netherlands, Norway, UK, Japan, Germany, France) 7 countries >1% market share (Norway, Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, France, China, UK)
Recent market developments: EV sales and market share What is happening in 2016? EU: +20% sales in Q1-Q2 2016 compared to Q1-Q2 2015 China: +160% sales in Q1-Q2 2016 compared to Q1-Q2 2015 Netherlands: 2.5% market share in 2016 (ytd) vs. 10% in 2015, due to changes in support mechanism and drop in PHEV sales expecting dynamic global growth in 2016, mainly driven by China sales
China France Japan Netherlands Norway Portugal Sweden United Kingdom United States Estimated magnitude of purchase incentive (USD) Share of PHEV or BEV in total car market Purchase incentives and EV market shares, 2015 25 000 20% 18% PHEVs 20 000 16% 14% BEVs 15 000 12% 10 000 10% 8% BEV market share 5 000 6% 4% PHEV market share 2% 0 0% Various policy mechanisms behind the market pull Differentiated taxation: CO 2 -based rebates, technology-based rebates, feebates, VAT exemptions Waivers on charges, preferential treatment possible if differentiated number plates are in place Norway stands out in terms of incentives and EV adoption Difficult to come to conclusions for other markets (very early phase)
Charging outlets Year-on-year growth rate EV Supply Equipment 1 600 1 400 1 200 1.45 million 140% 120% 100% Private chargers Publicly available fast chargers 1 000 800 600 400 200 0.82 million 80% 60% 40% 20% Publicly available slow chargers Growth rate of publicly available fast chargers Growth rate of publicly accessible slow chargers 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0% Growth rate of private chargers The deployment of publicly accessible chargers is positively correlated with the growth in EV sales Need for charging network to overcome range anxiety barrier Incentives are not just needed for vehicle purchase
EV support policies: challenges and future evolutions Today: Countries are still in trial and error phase: Which policies have the highest impacts? Do any policies have unanticipated adverse effects? What is the cost-optimal and most effective combination of support policies? Tomorrow: How to accompany mass market deployment within budget constraints How to rethink vehicle taxation to accommodate for fuel tax losses (electric cars do use public infrastructure and remain part of the congestion challenge) How to prevent potential competition between EVs and public transport without hampering EV rollout?
Electric cars in the vehicle stock (millions) EV deployment targets 160 140 120 100 80 World Horizon 2050 (2DS): 450-550 million EVs 25% global car stock 140 million Historical IEA 2DS Paris Declaration 20 million 60 40 13 million 100 million 20 1.26 million 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 EVI 2020 target Cumulative country targets Implications in terms of production scale up and need for raw materials?
EV deployment scenarios Impacts on the grid? Slow charging: Potential for flexibility through variable charging: requires price signal, demand-side management tools, but not necessarily vehicle-to-grid operations. Synergies with the integration of variable renewables Fast charging: Potentially disruptive locally for distribution grids Does not offer flexibility However, fast charging is not likely to take place in the evening demand peak (home chargers are slow chargers)
(RTE) Hourly load of a winter day with different charging modes Source: Réseau de Transport d Electricité (RTE), France. Slide presented at the Paris CEEM, Conference Electric vehicles and the electricity system on 17 October 2016. Presentation available at http://www.ceem-dauphine.org/assets/dropbox/ceem_conference_-_rte_-_impact_of_ev_development.pdf
Thank you for your attention The Global EV Outlook 2016 is freely accessible online
Policy needs A policy framework with high taxes on conventional fuels and stringent fuel economy standards is favorable for EVs Purchase and circulation incentives and the availability of charging infrastructure are positively correlated with EV uptake Need for fiscal measures (e.g. differentiated taxation, feebates) to kick start the market uptake Need for mechanisms supporting the deployment of recharging infrastructure Additional measures can further increase the value proposition of EVs Examples: waivers on access restrictions (bus lanes) and urban/parking pricing schemes Incentives can only be transitional Risk of tax revenue losses (incl. from fuel purchase). Need to adapt taxation mechanisms. Risk of congestion effects and detrimental effects to public transportation. Need for close monitoring and periodical revisions to adapt to a fast evolving market