Case study The impact of variable Renewable Energy Sources on the European Power System ICER GO15 Joint Workshop Managing the Needs of Investments Resulting from Energy Transition D. Dobbeni London, April 18th, 2013 1
Case study: 50Hertz becoming a RES system Situation at the end of 2012 Value (share of GER)* Geographic area Total circuit length Maximum load Electricity consumption** Installed capacity: - thereof RES - thereof wind 109,360 km² (31%) 9,980 km (28%) ~15 GW (18%) ~98 TWh (20%) ~43 GW (25%) 21.4 GW (31%) 12.4 GW (41%) Employees ~760 *) Preliminary figures; **) 2011 Turnover** - thereof grid 6.9 bn 0.6 bn 2
RES the game changer Installed RES capacities in the 50Hertz-control area MW 50.000 45.000 40.000 35.000 30.000 25.000 20.000 15.000 other RES wind offshore (forecast) wind onshore (forecast) wind onshore RES - Dena study II Installed capacities [MW] as per 12/2012 Wind 12,763 Onshore 12,715 Offshore 48 Biomass 1,613 PV 6,676 Other 245 Total 21,297 Actual figures Forecast 10.000 5.000 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2023 Year Sources: Data for 2000 until 2010 (actuals): www.eeg-kwk.net from 13/12/2011; Data for 2015 until 2023 (forecast): EEG-Forecast 50Hertz Transmission, 2011 The 21 GW RES capacity expected to more than double within next 10 years. 3
50Hertz = RES integration Source: Alstom Grid/U.S. Department of Energy 2011 4
Area specificity Strong RES generation and low load Electricity generation [TWh] Generation surplus -14% +27% Demand surplus Centers of demand Renewable generation Main grid construction projects 50Hertz is particularly affected by the challenges resulting from volatile RES. 5
Operational challenges from RES Wind Power Generation at 50Hertz from 23/12/2011-08/01/2012 11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 23.12.11 0:00 23.12.11 11:00 23.12.11 22:00 24.12.11 9:00 24.12.11 20:00 25.12.11 7:00 25.12.11 18:00 26.12.11 5:00 26.12.11 16:00 27.12.11 3:00 27.12.11 14:00 28.12.11 1:00 28.12.11 12:00 28.12.11 23:00 29.12.11 10:00 29.12.11 21:00 30.12.11 8:00 30.12.11 19:00 31.12.11 6:00 31.12.11 17:00 1.1.12 4:00 1.1.12 15:00 2.1.12 2:00 2.1.12 17:00 3.1.12 4:00 3.1.12 15:00 4.1.12 2:00 4.1.12 13:00 5.1.12 0:00 5.1.12 11:00 5.1.12 22:00 6.1.12 9:00 6.1.12 20:00 7.1.12 7:00 7.1.12 18:00 8.1.12 5:00 8.1.12 16:00 MW Gradients > 800MW within 15 minutes and > 2,400MW in one hour Covering ~2/3 of the maximum range within a day (> 7,500 MW) Exceeding 10,000 MW wind power generation on Jan 4 th, 2012 Rising RES share : a challenge for market & system operations, and security of supply. 6
System security interventions according to German legislation Possible remedial actions in a sample case of unexpectedly strong wind generation* 13(1) EnWG 11 EEG / 13(2) EnWG Grid-related actions Market-related actions RES curtailment E.g. loop flows voltage level control power E.g. Redispatch and countertrading Cross-border redispatch Load management for large consumers Curtailment of conventional plants up to technical minimum E.g. Local curtailment Curtailment in entire control area RES curtailment only when all other interventions have been insufficient. 7
50Hertz system = highly reliable 2012 highlights for system security Secure grid operations despite exceptional circumstances On 77 days RES generation had to be reduced Total redispatch costs approx. 100 million Total RES curtailment costs approx. 10 million Increasing necessity for redispatch measures Days 300 262 250 195 213 200 155 175 160 150 100 50 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Days with Redispatch measures (as per 13.1 EnWG) Very low failure rate at 50Hertz Increasing necessity for RES curtailment Days 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 77 45 0 3 4 6 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Days with lowering of RES generation (as per 13.2 EnWG) 8
Grid capacity: less expensive than sub-optimal RES locations Average wind full load hours in the 50Hertzarea per year: approx. 1,800 Differences: Gap in wind yields: ca. 25% Transmission costs relative to generation costs: ca. 3-5 % Using optimal locations for wind energy means approx. 20-22% lower costs. Average wind full load hours in the TransnetBW-area per year: approx. 1,400 Sources: Mean values 1989-2011, TransnetBW, own data and calculations. 9
Grid capacity margin fading away zu erwartende Belastung bei Eintritt des (n-1)-falles (Ausfall Parallelsystem) temperaturabhängige maximale Havariestrombelastbarkeit Dauerengpassstrom ID (mit Sonderregelung (3000 A) 120 %) Dauerengpassstrom ID (mit Sonderregelung (2772 A) 110 %) Dauerengpassstrom ID (ohne Sonderregelung (2520 A) 100%) 3.500,00 3.000,00 2.500,00 2.000,00 1.500,00 1.000,00 500,00 0,00 1.12.11 2.12.11 Failure simulation for the Redwitz (TenneT) Remptendorf line 413/414, December 2011 3.12.11 4.12.11 5.12.11 6.12.11 7.12.11 8.12.11 9.12.11 10.12.11 11.12.11 12.12.11 13.12.11 14.12.11 15.12.11 16.12.11 17.12.11 18.12.11 19.12.11 20.12.11 21.12.11 22.12.11 23.12.11 24.12.11 25.12.11 26.12.11 27.12.11 28.12.11 29.12.11 30.12.11 31.12.11 TSC-traffic light system, e.g. 27/11/2011 - green: up to 50 % load factor; yellow: 50-70 % load factor; red: over 70 % load factor Near n-1-limit leading to more temperature monitoring, High Temp lines, etc. Reducing capacity margin increases risk of failures. 10
More grid capacity is crucial for the Energy Transformation approx. 30 GW approx. 25 GW In particular, the existing North-South routes are at full capacity during strong winds approx. 3.6 GW approx. 3.6 GW approx. 4.8 GW Approx. 50-60 GW new RES production (until 2020) vs. 12 GW new transport capacity Demand centres Renewable generation Increase of congestions cannot be avoided with the currently implemented projects. Source: 50Hertz Transmission & TenneT GmbH forecasts for 2020; capacities of the lines see document of the German Bundestag 16/10491, statement of reasons for EnLAG. 11
Actions: a/ Transparency with load flow data Website with load flow data Openly available on the internet for everyone User-friendly handling Hourly data of the grid situation Online since April 2012 positive feedback by media and public 12
Actions: b/ German grid development plans 8 7 1 3 2 1 North Line Krümmel Görries 2 Uckermark Line Neuenhagen Bertikow 3 North Ring Berlin 4 Southwest Coupling Line 5 High-temperature conductors Remptendorf 6 6 3rd Interconnector to Poland 7 Offshore grid connections Baltic Sea 8 Kriegers Flak Combined Grid Solution 4 5 Total investment program of 1.8 bn. until 2020 13
Actions: b/ German grid development plans (2) Including HVDC corridors, aiming at: Transmission of North RES generation to demand centers in Southern Germany Stabilization of the AC grid Extension possibilities in North-South and East- West-directions Key figures: Total investments approx. 20 bill. Timeline: operational from 2022 14
Actions: c/ Solutions for parallel flows Innovative approach by 50Hertz Phase shifters and grid development Redispatch ( virtual PST ) Phase shifter (physical PST) Grid development Reduces SoS-relevant flows Challenge to match effectiveness and cost efficiency Reduces SoS-relevant flows Investment needed SoS for entire system EU market integration short-term medium-term longer-term 15
In summary: Energy Mutation = f (TSO & DSO) Effectiveness Short-term Long-term Grid management Framework improvement Infrastructure development Future topics Ancillary services for balancing International grid control cooperation European real-time warning system Legal and regulatory conditions Market development Skill-building and talent recruitment Domestic grid extension Upgrade of existing assets Offshore grid development HVDC overlay grid Storage technologies New transmission technologies Smart grids Improvement of RE forecasting Interconnectors to neighbors Data exchange with distribution level European grid planning Demand response All TSOs have to be active in all areas to enable an energy system based on RES. 16
Thank you! ICER GO15 Joint Workshop Managing the Needs of Investments Resulting from Energy Transition D. Dobbeni London, April 18th, 2013 17