Western European Diesel Car Market September 2017 Oxford Detroit Frankfurt Bangkok Shanghai São Paulo Tokyo
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LMC AUTOMOTIVE WESTERN EUROPEAN DIESEL CAR MARKET September 2017 LMC Automotive Oxford 4 th Floor, Clarendon House 52 Cornmarket Street Oxford OX1 3HJ UK Tel: +44 1865 791737 Fax: +44 1865 791739 Shanghai Room 818, Pine City No. 777 Zhaojiabang Road Xuhui Shanghai 201901 China Tel: +86 21 5283 3526 Fax: +86 21 5283 3880 Bangkok Suite 1107, 11 th Floor Q House Building, 66 Soi Asoke Sukhumvit 21 Road Wattana Bangkok 10110 Thailand Tel: +66 2 264 2050 Fax: +66 2 264 2051 Troy 340 East Big Beaver Suite 510 Troy MI 48083 USA Tel: +1 248 817 2100 Fax: +1 248 250 9835
September 2017 Western European Diesel Car Market September s Diesel Car Market was Characterized by Modest Decline &YoY Stability 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 W. Europe Diesel Car Share & Monthly YoY Variance (%) Share (left axis) Variance (right axis) 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 We haven t made any revisions to August s published diesel new car share figure of 42.7%. September saw a modest (by recent standards) decline to a preliminary figure of 42.5%. The YoY monthly trend eased a bit but still remains in excess of 5 percentage points off the year ago achievement. At a market level France is seeing a slackening in the rate of diesel share decline, as anticipated. September saw just 3.7 percentage points wiped off the value of September 2016. The figures for UK, Spain & Germany are in excess of 6, 7 and 8 points respectively, with Germany now being a key contributor to regional diesel volume decline, as France was in the past. Growth in hybrid & EV adoption in Germany is helping to feed this trend. Italy (of course) steadfastly refuses to countenance a decline in diesel share and this is a bit of a mystery. Support for alternative vehicles there is at the lower end of the scale which may be a factor. 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 France Diesel Car Share (%) Nov 06 Apr 07 Sep 07 Feb 08 Jul 08 Dec 08 May 09 Oct 09 Mar 10 Aug 10 Jan 11 Jun 11 Nov 11 Apr 12 Sep 12 Feb 13 Jul 13 Dec 13 May 14 Oct 14 Mar 15 Aug 15 Jan 16 Jun 16 Nov 16 Apr 17 Sep 17 Little has changed regarding the big picture outlook for diesel in the region. There have been some more anti IC statements from governments & city administrators recently but these are generally targeting both gasoline and diesel vehicles. Paris has stated that it would like to remove diesel cars by the time it hosts the Olympic Games (2024) but we don t think this is a new policy, having been floated before. Confirmation of the post 2021 EU fleet new car CO 2 target is rumoured to be imminent and we will be watching carefully to see whether this will have a bearing on the required technology mix for the middle of the next decade and beyond. It seems unlikely that it will impact greatly on the diesel forecast. Oxford Detroit Frankfurt Bangkok Shanghai São Paulo Tokyo
September 2017 Western European Diesel Car Market Diesel Share of New Car Sales (%) Sep 17 Sep 16 YoY YTD September 17 YTD September 16 YoY Austria* 48.6 55.7 7.1 50.4 57.3 6.9 Belgium* 47.8 50.3 2.5 46.7 52.0 5.3 Denmark 18.2 33.2 15.0 34.0 35.4 1.4 Finland 28.9 30.6 1.7 31.4 32.9 1.5 France 47.4 51.1 3.7 47.8 52.7 4.9 Germany 36.3 44.6 8.3 40.3 46.5 6.2 Greece* 42.0 54.9 12.9 42.0 52.3 10.3 Ireland 65.3 72.8 7.5 65.2 69.8 4.6 Italy 57.5 57.0 0.5 56.7 56.6 0.1 Luxembourg 54.0 66.1 12.1 54.4 64.4 10.0 Netherlands 17.5 19.5 2.0 17.7 18.4 0.7 Norway 17.9 26.8 8.9 24.1 31.2 7.1 Portugal* 60.0 67.6 7.6 61.2 64.4 3.2 Spain 50.3 57.7 7.4 49.7 56.9 7.2 Sweden 48.3 49.0 0.7 50.9 52.6 1.7 Switzerland* 33.0 37.9 4.9 36.7 39.3 2.6 UK 40.1 46.5 6.4 42.8 47.6 4.8 W. Europe 42.5 47.9 5.4 45.3 49.7 4.4 Diesel Car Sales Volume ( 000s) Sep 17 Sep 16 YoY YTD September 17 YTD September 16 YoY Austria* 14.2 16.6 2.4 135.8 144.5 8.7 Belgium* 19.8 21.0 1.2 203.5 220.7 17.2 Denmark 3.3 6.1 2.9 58.6 59.7 1.0 Finland 2.8 2.9 0.2 29.0 30.5 1.4 France 79.1 85.9 6.8 741.6 791.2 49.5 Germany 103.9 132.9 29.1 1,051.8 1,188.4 136.7 Greece* 2.6 2.6 0.0 28.6 31.8 3.3 Ireland 2.9 3.4 0.5 84.2 99.9 15.7 Italy 93.1 87.7 5.4 866.6 796.1 70.4 Luxembourg 2.1 2.4 0.3 22.2 25.4 3.2 Netherlands 5.9 6.5 0.7 56.9 52.5 4.4 Norway 2.3 3.7 1.4 28.0 36.2 8.2 Portugal* 8.6 9.4 0.9 104.6 102.3 2.3 Spain 38.2 46.1 7.9 460.2 497.0 36.8 Sweden 15.5 15.8 0.3 142.6 142.8 0.1 Switzerland* 7.7 9.9 2.1 84.0 90.8 6.8 UK 173.1 218.4 45.3 886.8 1,023.6 136.9 W. Europe 574.8 671.4 96.6 4,985.1 5,333.4 348.3 * Estimated for September 2017 Oxford Detroit Frankfurt Bangkok Shanghai São Paulo Tokyo
September 2017 Western European Diesel Car Market Forecast of Western Europe and Big 5 Market Diesel Shares 80 Diesel Share of New Car Sales (%) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 W Europe Germany France Italy Spain UK We have made no adjustments to the forecast as shown in the previous edition of this report. The downward trend in diesel remains, but is not showing signs of accelerating at the current time. We continue to expect that diesel, despite its problems, will be a core powertrain type for many years to come, albeit with reduced market share. Ignoring the rhetoric and focusing on actual events, outright bans on new or nearly new diesel cars still seem a somewhat remote possibility. In ten days time London will implement a Toxicity Charge (T Charge) which will prevent vehicles which do not meet minimum emissions standards from entering the same central area as that covered by the Congestion Charge scheme. In the case of diesel cars the minimum standard is set at EU4, so cars from January 2005 or younger will be allowed. This is not a great deterrent to diesel per se, but is a step in the right direction, hastening the removal of highly polluting older vehicles from the city s central area. In the end it will be evolution of alternatives to diesel as well as rising costs associated with diesel cars themselves that will kill them off in most cases. This process will take a significant amount of time to run its course and as the diesel fleet, helped by such schemes as that mentioned above, is renewed or replaced by alternatives, the burden of noxious emissions will decline. This approach has the most chance of success, and is the one advocated by most analysts as well as the industry itself. The current share forecast and resulting volume of diesel car sales are shown in the table below. West Europe diesel car market 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Diesel share (%) 53.3 51.9 49.5 44.7 41.7 40.5 39.1 36.5 35.3 34.3 32.6 Diesel vol (mn units) 6.45 6.85 6.91 6.41 6.03 5.90 5.73 5.39 5.25 5.14 4.90 For further information contact Al Bedwell, Director Global Powertrain Phone +44 1865 791737, abedwell@lmc auto.com 13 th October 2017 Oxford Detroit Frankfurt Bangkok Shanghai São Paulo Tokyo
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LMC Automotive Oxford 4 th Floor, Clarendon House 52 Cornmarket Street Oxford OX1 3HJ UK Tel: +44 1865 791737 Fax: +44 1865 791739 Shanghai Room 818, Pine City No 777 Zhaojiabang Road Xuhui Shanghai 201901 China Tel: +86 21 5283 3526 Fax: +86 21 5283 3880 Bangkok Suite 1107, 11 th Floor Q House Building, 66 Soi Asoke Sukhumvit 21 Road Wattana Bangkok 10110 Thailand Tel: +66 2 264 2050 Fax: +66 2 264 2051 Troy 340 East Big Beaver Suite 510 Troy MI 48083 USA Tel: +1 248 817 2100 Fax: +1 248 250 9835