Steel, a visionary outlook for the future in automotive

Steel, a visionary outlook for the future in automotive KIVI NIRIA November 23, 2011 Technische Universiteit Delft Cees ten Broek Cees ten Broek Director WorldAutoSteel

Automotive Material Selection Criteria Cost Weight

Reinventing Steel (Products and Applications) CARS Magazine 1970s October 1953 The day of the passeng car made primarily 1980s of iro on and steel is on the wane giving ground to aluminu magnesium and 1990s plastics um, s Body-on-Frame ger Body-Frame-Integral Uncoated Galvanized Rust Resistant Ṃild Steel HSLA and Bake Hard Steel 2000s Mild & HSLA Advanced High Strength Steels 3

Investment in Automotive 1998 ULSAB UltraLight Steel Auto Body 2000 ULSAC UltraLight Steel Auto Closures kilogram per veh hicle 2000 ULSAS 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 UltraLight Steel Auto Suspensions Advanced High Strength Steel Content per Vehicle 2005 2010 2015 2020 4 2002 ULSAB-AVC Advanced Vehicle Concepts Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011

Material Selection Drivers Crash Safety Requirements 1991 30MPH Full Front 1995 40MPH Offset Front 2000 38.5MPH Side 2003 50 0MPH 50% Rear 2006 55MPH 70% Rear 2009 Roof Strength 20 MPH 30V 3.0 Veh. Wt Pole 2 side. 1990 1995 2000 1990 1994 1997 30MPH Roof Strength 20 MPH Side 1.5 Veh. Wt. Side Pole 2005 2010 2003 2006 35MPH 31 MPH Full Frontal Side SUV 2009 Roof Strength 4.0 Veh. Wt

Material Selection Drivers Crash Safety Requirements

Material Selection Drivers Crash Safety Requirements

Material Selection Drivers Fuel Economy and C02 Emissions Requirements Early Introduction of Advanced Powertrains Honda Clarity FCX Mercedes E-Cell Plus Mercedes F-Cell Tesla Model S

Nature s Way to Mobility 9

WorldAu utosteel Automotive Group of the World Steel Association MEMBER COMPANIES: Ansteel Hyundai-S Steel Sumitomo ArcelorMittal Kobe ThyssenKrupp Baosteel Nippon Stteel USIMINAS China Steel NUCOR U. S. Steel Tata Steel POSCO p voestalpine JFE Severstal 10

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In Summary In Summary 1. State-of-the-future development process 2. 188 kg body structure mass - 35% mass reduction 3. 97% use of HSS and AHSS 4. Nearly 50% GigaPascal 5. Enables 5-star safety ratings 6. Nearly 70%Total Lifetime Emissions Reduction 7. Mass savings at no steels cost penalty Nature s Way to Mobility 12

The distribution of global wealth has been historically skewed towards mature markets Emerging and Mature Markets Emerging Markets Mature Markets Population Distribution in Emerging & Mature Markets (2010; Total = 6,809 MM) Mature markets 17% Emerging markets 83% GDP Contribution by Emerging and Mature Markets (2010; Total = $62 Tn) Mature markets 69% Emerging markets 31% Source: Global Insight; Booz & Company analysis 13

The world has entered a new era since 2008, with more than half of human populatio on living in urban areas 10,000 Global Urban Population 2000-2050 Mil. People Forecast Mil. People 1,500 China s Urban Population 1980-2020 Forecast 8,000 Rural 1,200 Rural 6,000 900 4000 4,000 2,000 0 46.7% 49.5% 50.7% 2000 2007 2008 2050E 70.0% Urban 600 300 0 19% 1980 26% 1990 36% 2000 47% 2009 52% 2015E 58% 2020E Urban More than half of the global population live in urban area since 2008 At start of reform era, more than 80% of China s population was in rural areas Majority of China s population will reside in urban areas by 2015 Creation of urban middle class fuels demand for personal mobility Source: National Bureau of Statistics, UN, Booz & Company 14

For the Global Auto market, Asia pacific represents the greatest opportunity for growth, East tern Europe ranks second NAFTA Growth thru 2020: 5,528K CAGR (2010-2020):4% Western Europe Growth thru 2020: 1,527K CAGR (2010-2020):1% Eastern Europe Growth thru 2020: 2,835K CAGR (2010-2020): 6% Asia Pacific Growth thru 2020: 12,626K CAGR (2010-2020): 5% Latin America Growth thru 2020: 2,899K CAGR (2010-2020): 6% Africa/Mid ddle East Growth thru 2020:1,264K CAGR (2010-2020):4% = Area Reflects Size Of 2009 Actual PV Sales = Area Reflects Size Of 2020 Forecasted PV Sales Market 2010 PV 000 Units 2015 PV 2020 PV Asia Pacific 22,212 NAFTA 11,545 Western Europe 12,776 Eastern Europe 3,261 Latin America 4,030 30,350 34,838 16,877 17,073 14,133 14,302 5,035 6,095 5,570 6,929 Africa/Middle East 2,946 3,783 4,211 Source: Global Insight Data 15

within Asia pacific, the greatest growth opportunity is China China: Growth thru 2020: 8,653K CAGR (2010-2020): 6% Mongolia North Korea Japan Japan: Grow wth thru 2020: -457K CAGR (2010-2020): -1% = Area Reflects Size Of 2009 Actual PV Sales = Area Reflects Size Of 2020 Forecasted PV Sales China Pakistan India Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh Myanmar Laos Vietnam Cambodia India: Thailand Growth thru 2020: 2,621K CAGR (2010-2020): 8% Malaysia ASEAN: Growth thru 2020: 1,074K CAGR (2010-2020): 5% South Korea Taiwan Philippines Indonesia Taiwan: Growth thru 2020: 79K CAGR (2010-2020): 2% South Korea: Growth thru 2020: 110K CAGR (2010-2020): 1% 000 Units Market 2010 PV 2015 PV 2020 PV China 11,462 17,296 20,115 Japan 4,254 4,075 3,797 India 2,240 3,700 4,862 ASEAN* 1,634 2,185 2,709 South Korea 1,302 1,407 1,412 Australia: Growth thru 2020: 310K CAGR (2010-2020): 3% Australia New Zealand Australia 807 1,020 1,117 Taiwan 299 337 378 New Zealand 63 82 87 Rest of Asia Pacific 152 247 328 Total 22,212 30,350 34,838 Note: ASEAN figures include top 5 ASEAN member countries, ncluding Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, and Philippines Rest of Asia-Pacific includes Hong Kong and Pakistan Source: Global Insight Data 16

FutureSteelVehicle Gllobal Communications M di C Media Confe ferences OEM Transfers Oct Dec. 6 OEM O Technical h l Transfers f 8 Regulator & NGOs Conferences Completed Conferences Upcoming One-on-One Briefings Americas Round Table, Steel Trends, T Brazil Great Designs in Steel USA SAE Brasil, Brazil Electric Vehicle Techhnologies, Brazil SAE Noise & Vibratioon USA Auto Weight Reductioon Strategies, USA Auto News Green Caar Conference, USA Management Briefingg Seminar, USA 20th SAE Congress, Brazil B SENAFOR,, Brazil Plug-in Vehicle Confeerence, USA SAE 2012, USA Asia Media Conference, Japan Media Conference, Conference Taiwan T Japan SAE, Japan Korea SAE, Korea Taiwan SAE, Taiwann LS-Dyna Conferencee, Korea China SAE, China Driving Steel, S India Aachen Coloquium,17China C 8 OEM Technical h l Transfers f Europe E 8th European LS-DYNA Users, France Steel in Cars and Trucks, Austria worldsteel Executive Committee, Finland 64th IAA Cars, Germany Aachen Body Engineering Days, Germany Severstal Annual Meeting, (Turkey) Stahl 2011, Germany worldsteel-45, Paris Aachen Kolloquium, Germany EuroCarBody 2011, Germany European Electric Vehicle Congress Congress, Belgium FutureCarBody 2011, Germany Internationale Tagung Karosseriebau, Germany

What is Futur FSV1 BEV FSV1 PHEV20 FSV2 PHEV40 FSV2 FCEV 18

FSV Steel Grade Portfolio Expanded Range of Steel Grades Mild 140/270 DP 350/600 TRIP 600/980 BH 210/340 TRIP 350/600 TWIP 500/980 BH 260/370 SF 570/640 DP HSLA 700/1000 700/780 BH 280/400 HSLA 550/6500 DP 700/1000 IF 260/410 IF 300/420 TRIP 400/700 SF 600/780 DP300/500 CP 500/800 FB 330/450 DP 500/800 HSLA 350/4503 0 TRIP 450/800 4 0 HSLA 420/500 CP 600/900 FB 450/600 CP 750/900 HSLA 490/600 denotes steel included in ULSAB-AVC denotes steel grades added for FSV 19 MS CP 800/1000 950/1200 MS 950/1200 CP 1000/1200 DP 1150/1270 MS 1150/1400 CP 1050/1470 MS HF 1050/1500 1250/1500 MS 1250/1500

Automotive Steel Technology Portfolio Broad Bandwidth of Manufacturing Options 20 Conventional Stamping Laser Welded Blank Tailor Rolled Blank Induction Welded Hydroformed Tubes Laser Welded Hydroformed Tubes Tailor Rolled Hydroformed Tubes Hot Stamping (Direct & In-Direct) Laser Welded Blank Quench Steel Tailor Rolled Blank Quench Steel Roll Forming Laser Welded Coil Rollformed Tailor Rolled Blank Rollformed Rollform with Quench Multi-Walled Hydroformed Tubes Multi-Walled Tubes Laser Welded Finalised Tubes Laser Welded Tube Profiled Sections

Design Optimization Process State-of-the-Future Design Development Final Report Technology Assessment Final Design Confirmation Packaging T6 Gauge Optimization T1 Styling & aerodynamic Detail Design T5 T2 Linear-Static Topology Optimization T4 Sub-System Topography Optimization T3 Non-Linear Dynamic Topology Optimization 21

Design for Flexib ble Architectures Nature s Way W to Mobility C i l Conventional Stamping Roll R ll Forming Hot Stamping g Hydroforming Standard Blanks ST HST RF HF ST LWB T LWB HST RF LWB HF LWB ST TRB HST T TRB RF TRB HF TRB Laser Welded Blanks Tailor Rolled Blanks

Nature s Nature s Way ay to to Mobility Rocker Rocker Complex Phase (CP) 1050/1470, 1.0 mm Rollformed 6.0 kg each 23

Nature s Way to Mobility Front Rail S Sub-System Front Rail Upper Front Rail Lower TRIP steel Stamped, Laser-Welded Blank <19 kg 24

Nature s Nature s Way ay to to Mobility Shot Gun Hot Formed 1050/1500 Hot-Stamped, Tailor Welded Blank 6.0 kg each Shot Gun Inner Shot Gun Outer 25

35% Masss Savings BEV 188 kg PHEV 20 175 kg Body Structure FSV 1 BEV Mass (kg) Benchmark 290 Target 190 Achieved 188 FSV-2: PHEV 40 and FCEV 201 kg 26

Body St tructure Mass (Ac ctual) 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 FSV Compared to Body Structure Mass (Actual vs. Regression Analysis Prediction) a2mac1 (database) 1998 ULSAB-AVC Ref. ULSAB_AVC Reference Vehicle ULSAB-AVC FSV Aluminum 2002 MMV. ULSAB-AVC 2011 FSV Audi A2 UltraLight Mass Audi TT MMV Super Light Car MMV Lotus Venza Study Jaguar XK 200 250 300 350 400 Body Structure Mass (Reg ression Analysis Prediction) Source Auto/Steel Partnership - USS internal analysis United States Steel Corporation 27

FSV No Cost Penalty Body Structure Manufacturing Costs $775 Body Structure Assembly Costs Cost (US$) $340 Total Body Structure Manufacturing & Assembly $1,115 28

Life Cycle Assessment Vehicle emissions are more than what comes out the tailpipe Source Argonne national lab 29

Life Cycle Assessment Material Production Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions GHG from Production (in kg CO2e/kg of material) Steel 20 2.0 25 2.5 Aluminum 11.2 12.6 Magnesium Current Average GHG Emissions Primary Production 18 45 Carbon Fiber 21 23 Footnotes: All steel and aluminum grades included in ranges. Difference between AHSS and conventional steels less than 5%. Aluminum data - global for ingots; European only for process from ingot to final products. 30

Vehicle/Powertrain Life Cycle Assessment FSV Results and Comparison Among Energy Grids Material & Recycling (kg CO 2 e) Benchmark V ICEg 1,479 FSV BEV USA grid 1,328 FSV BEV Europe grid 1,328 Use Phase Total Life Cycle (kg CO 2 e) (kg CO 2 e) 32,655 34,134 13,844 15,172 9,670 10,998 FSV vs. Benchmark USA Grid FSV vs. Benchmark Europe Grid - 56% CO 2 e reduction 2-68% CO 2 e reduction U.S. Energy Grids 31 Use Phase Comparison

FSV Compared to Multi-Material SLC Weight Cost LCA GHG FSV 188 kg $981 15,171 kg MMV MMV compared to FSV 171 kg - 9.0% $3022 + 300% 15,875 kg + 4.2% 16,000 14,000 Material Production Phase Emissions Kg CO 2 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 FSV-BEV MMV-BEV Driving Phase Emissions 4.2% more Life Cycle emissions 1.5% fewer driving phase emissions Source: EU SLC public domain presentations - VW presentation May 18,2010 ARB Lightweight Workshop - UCSB LCA Model of FSV & EU SLC for a BEV vehicle 32

Recent Study: Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership Study Mid-size vehicles Vehicle production Use Phase Recycling BEV 57% 40% Gasoline 25% 73% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Lifecycle CO 2 Emissions [kgco 2 e] Source: 2011 LCVP Ricardo Study

Cost Automotive Material Selection Criteria Weight Life Cycle Emissions 1. Material Greenhou use Gas Intensity 2. Lightweighting i hti Capability 3. Recyclability

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