How much oil are electric vehicles displacing? Aleksandra Rybczynska March 07, 2017
Executive summary EV s influence on global gasoline and diesel consumption is small but increasing quickly. This short presentation aims to show BNEF s assessment of the fossil fuel displacement caused directly by EVs sold globally from 2011 to 2016. Global sales of plug-in electric vehicles are growing quickly, up 55% in 2016 compared with 2015. Although still small, their influence on gasoline and diesel consumption volumes is steadily rising. Oil displacement values caused by EVs will vary regionally and will largely depend on the average miles travelled and the fuel economy of the ICE vehicles they are displacing in a given country. However, using global weighted average values of these two variables, EVs displaced 77% more oil in 2016 than in 2015. EVs are displacing 17.8 thousand barrels of oil per day as of the end of 2016. We expect global annual EV sales to increase further by 39% in 2017 and increase their fuel displacement values by 60% as BEVs are becoming more popular. Fuel displaced by Evs on the road, 2011-17e Thousand barrels per day 10,887 38.6 3.4 On track to displace an equivalent of 28.4 thousand barrels of oil per day by the end of 2017 Global average annual vehicle miles driven Weighted average global ICE car fuel economy in miles per gallon in 2016 TWh of electricity consumed by Evs in 2016 17.8 28.4 10.1 0.3 1.2 2.9 5.8 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1 March 07, 2017
Methodology This short presentation aims to show BNEF s assessment of the fuel displacement values caused directly by EVs sold globally from 2011 to 2016. BNEF looked at the issue from two different perspectives: Method 1: Fuel displaced by EVs is calculated assuming that every electric vehicle on the road was bought instead of an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle, therefore displacing fuel that would otherwise be consumed by the respective ICE vehicle. Method 1 represents the fuel that would have been consumed by these ICE vehicles expressed in barrels of oil per day. In order to calculate this, we used quarterly EV sales data, then combined this with regionally-weighted average ICE vehicle fuel economy ratings and regionally-weighted average BEV and PHEV miles driven to determine the displacement from ICE vehicles that were effectively taken off the road. Using this method, in 2016 EVs displaced an equivalent of 17.8 thousand barrels of oil per day globally, and are on track to potentially displace over 28.4 thousand barrels of oil per day at the end of 2017. Total global oil consumption is around 96m barrels of oil per day. Method 2: Energy consumed by EVs is calculated as a function of their fuel consumption and miles travelled in each year. To do this we reviewed sales data, fuel economy ratings by model for combined driving cycle of all EV models sold by quarter since 2011, and the average pure electric miles travelled by BEV s and PHEVs in a year. Method 2 result represents the electricity consumed by the cumulative number of EVs on the road in each given year. Using this method, in 2016 EVs consumed 3.4 TWhof electricity globally. BNEF expects that in 2017, EVs will consume around 5.7 TWh. 2 March 07, 2017
Vehicle miles driven assumptions Poorly developed public transport infrastructure, longer journey distances and cheap gasoline mean that passenger cars in the US travel on average 13,000 miles a year the highest from the analysed countries. In Japan average annual car miles travelled are the lowest, largely due to well developed public transport, shorter trips and ageing population. Country Average annual passenger car miles driven (miles) Japan 5,800 8% U.S. 13,000 33% E.U 8,800 33% China 12,500 26% Average annual passenger car miles driven US Contribution towards global, cumulative EV sales, 2011-2016 (%) Weighted average (miles) 10,887 13,000 China 12,500 Weighted average 10,887 EU 8,800 Japan 5,800 3 March 07, 2017
ICE fuel economy assumptions (measured in miles per gallon) Country 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Japan 40.5 43.4 46.2 46.0 45.9 45.5 45.5 U.S 29.5 29.9 30.4 30.8 31.3 31.3 31.3 EU 38.8 40.5 43.4 44.6 46.1 47.7 49.4 China 31.6 32.0 32.4 32.9 34.3 35.8 38.3 Weighted average 34.8 35.7 36.9 37.4 38.9 38.6 39.7 Miles per gallon 46.2 46.0 46.1 47.7 49.4 38.8 43.4 45.7 45.5 43.4 44.6 45.9 40.5 40.5 34.8 35.7 36.9 37.4 38.9 38.6 39.7 31.6 32.0 32.4 32.9 34.3 35.8 38.3 29.5 29.9 30.4 30.8 31.2 31.3 31.3 Japan US EU China Weighted average We have updated our fuel economy assumptions to be in line with countries specific targets for new vehicles and normalised to the NEDC cycle through correlation. Therefore our weighted average value has changed compared to the 2015 fuel displacement analysis. 4 March 07, 2017 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Method 1: Fuel displaced by EVs on the road If all BEVs and PHEVs currently on the road were bought instead of an average gasoline or diesel car Thousand barrels per day 28.4 On track to displace an equivalent of 28.4 thousand barrels of oil per day by the end of 2017 17.8... then EVs on the road today, are displacing an equivalent of 17.8 thousand barrels of oil per day 10.1 5.8 0.3 1.2 2.9 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average ICE miles travelled per quarter: 2,722, BEV 2,177, PHEV 1,361. We have updated the average fuel economy value in this report and therefore our fuel displacement values are slightly lower than previously. Our 2016 forecasted value has also changed as a result, from 18.2 thousand barrels of oil per day to 17.6 thousand barrels of oil displaced per day. 5 March 07, 2017
BEV and PHEV contribution Thousand barrels per day 30 At end-2016 BEVs displaced roughly 11.7 thousand barrels of oil per day and PHEVs 6.1 thousand barrels of oil per day. BEVs could account for around 19.3 thousand barrels of oil displaced per day in 2017. 25 32% 20 15 10 5 0 34% 68% 35% 66% 36% 36% 65% 86% 69% 64% 65% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 PHEV BEV In the previous fuel displacement analysis we expected BEVs to contribute 65% to the total fuel displacement at end-2016, or roughly 11.4 thousand barrels per day. Average ICE miles travelled per quarter: 2,722, BEV 2,177, PHEV 1,361. We have updated the average fuel economy value in this report and therefore our fuel displacement values are slightly lower than previously. Our 2016 forecasted value has also changed as a result, from 18.2 thousand barrels of oil per day to 17.6 thousand barrels of oil displaced per day. 6 March 07, 2017
Method 2: Electricity consumed by EVs on the road TWh On track to consume 5.7 TWh of electricity by the end of 2017 5.7 Based on EV models fuel consumption values, BNEF estimates that EVs that on the road in 2016 used 3.4 TWh of electricity. For reference, this is equivalent to 1% of electricity consumed in the UK in 2015. 3.4 2.0 1.1 0.05 0.2 0.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 E-miles travelled per quarter: BEV 2,177, PHEV 1,361 7 March 07, 2017
New BNEF tools: Electric vehicle data hub Interested in historical EV sales figures, EV model availability or automaker analysis? As a BNEF client, you can access our new interactive EV Data Hub to create and download your own charts and datasets. >> Contact sales.bnef@bloomberg.net to learn more. 8 March 07, 2017
Copyright and disclaimer This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. No portion of this document may be photocopied, reproduced, scanned into an electronic system or transmitted, forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such a guarantee. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features, and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg L.P. or any of their affiliates ("Bloomberg"). The opinions presented are subject to change without notice. Bloomberg accepts no responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments, or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an investment strategy or whether or not to "buy," "sell" or "hold" an investment. 9 March 07, 2017
Bloomberg New Energy Finance is a research firm that helps energy professionals generate opportunities. With a team of experts spread across six continents, BNEF provides independent analysis and insight, enabling decisionmakers to navigate change in an evolving energy economy. BNEF research and analysis is accessible via web and mobile platforms, as well as on the Bloomberg Terminal. Coverage. Renewable Energy Power & Utilities Gas Carbon Markets & Climate Negotiations Energy Smart Technologies Storage Electric Vehicles Mobility and Autonomous Driving Frontier Power Emerging Technologies sales.bnef@bloomberg.net about.bnef.com @BloombergNEF Aleksandra Rybczynska