Fehmarnbelt Days 2016 Air quality aspects of shipping in the south-western Baltic Sea region Markus Quante, Volker Matthias, Armin Aulinger, Johannes Bieser Hamburg, 21 September 2016 Photo: M. Quante
Overview Background Shipping emissions Model system Results Situation today Future scenarios Harbour cities BONUS Project SHEBA Summary Photo: M. Quante Image: NASA, Modis
Global transport with ships 10 Cent roughly 90 % of the international trade by ships x 2 Containers International trade volume / million tons Other dry cargo Bulk cargo Crude oil and oil products Fig.: WBGU (2013) Year Source : UNCTAD (2011), German Navy (2011)
Global shipping activity for the year 2012 Map: University College, London and Kiln; IMO GHG Study 2014 Container: yellow, Dy bulk: blue, Tanker: red, Gas bulk: green, Vehicles: purple
Shipping on the North and Baltic Sea CO 2 emissions in SECA for 2011 NO x in the North Sea: 32% in 12 nm, 89% in 50 nm, 97% in 100 nm, distance from the coast 90% on sea 10% in ports Johansson et al. (2014)
Ship traffic in the western Baltic AIS ship traffic 2010 Ship traffic in 2013 in western Baltic (Source: Counts; Wasser- und Schifffahrtsverwaltung)
Ship emissions Ships emit gases und particles CO 2 (3,1%)* NO x (15%)*................. soot SO 2 (13%)* * of global overall emissions (data for 2007-2012 from IMO, 2015) health aerosols, ozone climate greenhouse gases, aerosols environment nutrients (N)
Ship emission inventory Ship movements (AIS: route, velocity) Ship data (tonnage, machines, fuel) Emission factors in g/kwh Ship emissions by time and place CMAQ SO 2, NO x, PM
Emission Factors for nitrogen oxides (example) EF: mass unit per mass unit fuel (or per kwh) Zhang et al., ACP 2016 Ship 1 Ship 2 Ship 3 EFs are significantly different under differing load conditions and operating modes. uncertainty
Shipping emissions gridded to 24x24km²
Chemistry transport modelling Meteorology CCLM Emissions CTM-CMAQ Gas phase chemistry Aerosol chemistry Cloud chemistry Transport i.e. gas to particle SMOKE-EU Ship emissions
NO 2 concentration in summer absolute, all sources relative, shipping 6 x 6 km² nested grid, summer 2013
NO 3 - (p) concentration in summer absolute, all sources relative, shipping 6 x 6 km² nested grid, summer 2013
Share of ships to the seasonal deposition of oxidised nitrogen
Particles from shipping particulate matter from ship emissions
NOx emission scenarios IMO regulations for NOx 2030 scenarios Tier I : Ships built after 1 Jan 2000 Tier II : Ships built after 1 Jan 2011 Tier III : New builts from 1 Jan 2016 onwards, only in designated ECAs No ECA: No nitrogen emission control area (NECA) implemented ECA 16: NECA implemented for new builts after 1 Jan 2016 ECA 21: NECA implemented for new builts after 1 Jan 2021 ECA opt: NECA implemented for all ships Assumption: Transported freight volume will increase by 2.7%/a
NO 2 concentration changes in 2030 20
NO 3 - concentration changes in 2030 21
N(ox) deposition scenario Contribution of shipping to the total N(ox) deposition in summer 2030 Reference case No ECA ECA 16 summer (JJA)
Harbour cities Coastal areas are the densely populated areas of the Earth, in part. deltas the hotspots of global economy focus areas for continued economic growth in the 21 st cent. 13 of the 20 highest populated cities are harbour cities Harbour cities > 1 Million inhabitants (136 cities) Source: Hanson et al. (2011)
Port and other sources Hamburg, Germany Nitrogen oxides Particulate matter Heating Offroad traffic Heating Offroad traffic Shipping (estimate) Industry Shipping (estimate) Aircraft Rail traffic Industry Road traffic Aircraft Road traffic Rail traffic Source: Luftreinhalteplan Hamburg, 1. Fortschreibung 2012
TAPM results for Hamburg: Impact of shipping on NO 2 concentrations in Hamburg all emissions contribution of ships prelim. results! prelim. results! courtesy of Martin Ramacher, HZG
www.sheba-project.eu 26
and air quality In SHEBA we will extend (improve) the modelling (3 different model systems) model several scenarios (e.g. different abatement strategies; scrubbers, LNG, 2030, 2040) detailed model studies for harbour cities (Gothenburg, Hamburg, Gdansk, Riga) consider leisure boats SHEBA runs to 2018 Leisure boat fuel consumption in kg/grid cell/year (Johansson, 2016)
Summary Shipping is an important contributor to air pollution and to nitrogen deposition in the Fehmarnbelt region The ship fraction of oxidised nitrogen deposition in the western Baltic area is around 20% and can reach 35% in summer Scenarios for 2030 show that the contribution of shipping to NO 2 concentrations and to nitrogen deposition will increase by 20-30% if no emission control for NO x will be implemented Shipping can be a significant source for air pollution in harbour cities, affecting residential areas around the ports The SHEBA project will lead to improved model results and dedicated abatement scenarios
Thanks for your interest! Questions? Quante, Geesthacht, 11.06.2015
Shipping contribution to PM and N deposition Shipping contribution to PM air concentration and NOx deposition in the North Sea and Baltic Sea areas: a) PM2.5 in μm m -3, b) PM2.5 in %, c) total deposition of N in mg m -2, d) total deposition of N in % (image adapted from Jonson et al. 2015)
Measurements at the Elbe Kattner et al. (2015)
Measurements at the Elbe Stickstoffdioxid Schwefeldioxid Stickstoffdioxid Schwefeldioxid ca. 95 % of ships go along with the rules (0,1 % S) Kattner et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys. (2015)
Aerosol formation in CMAQ
Emissionsreduktion Gesetzliche Regelungen (Internationale Maritime Organisation) Nord- und Ostsee sind Schwefelemissionskontrollgebiete Emissionskontrolle für Stickoxide in Vorbereitung für 2016 (?) Maßnahmen: Abgasreinigung Landstromversorgung Alternative Kraftstoffe (Flüssiggas, LNG) Langsame Fahrt (slow steaming) HZG ist Partner im Projekt Clean North Sea Shipping
NO x Reduktionstechnologien (Tier III) SCR (selective catalytic reduction). Abgas wird durch einen Katalysator geleitet, der die Stickoxide zu Stickstoff und Wasser reduziert -mit Hilfe von Ammoniak. EGR (exhaust gas recirculation). Ein Teil des Abgases wird in den Verbrennungsraum zurückgeführt und damit die Verbrennungstemperatur gesenkt LNG (liquefied natural gas). Vollständiger Ersatz von Diesel durch LNG. Hyundai Diesel SCR Tier III LNG angetriebens Schiff LNG Logistik MAN Diesel EGR Tier III
Schiffe der Zukunft Asgard NYK STX Europe Quante et al. 14.-16.09..2012