Electric Vehicles in China: Technology Trajectories, Policies, and lessons Chen Ling, Doris Fischer, Shen Qunhong, Yang Wenhui Presentation for the final conference in Bonn April 7-8, 2014
Outline Research questions and methodology Main findings Policy implications
1. Research questions Initial conditions, current situations and trends of EV industry in China? What are the determinants of technological trajectory of the newly emerging EV industry? And How? Policy implications for industrial development and international cooperation?
2. Methodology Policy review Public funded research programs since 2001 EV as one of 7 strategic emerging industries in 2009 A 3-year demonstration project conducted in 25 pilot cities from 2009-2013, focusing on consumer side with heavy subsidies by the central and local governments. Three rounds of structured interviews on Critical Events Technology capacity, trajectories, and business models of key manufacturers Including: BYD, Chery, SAIC, Zotye, JAC, Geely, BAIC Critical events including: Model design, Lithium battery and battery management system(bms), Battery Swapping, Battery Monitoring System international comparison EV industry in India, German, France
3. Main findings: (1)initial conditions Long journey of catching up and Market for technology strategy since 1978 Dominated by Large SOEs and their joint ventures with MNCs: FAW, SAIC, BAIC Private car makers as competitors since late 1990s: Chery, BYD, Geely, Zotye Private car consumption booming since 2003, now China is the largest car market in the world (about 22 million in 2013). Local champions only take small market share (as in passenger car market: BYD 3%, Chery 2.5%, Geely 2.3%)
Main findings: (2)the whole picture EV productions increased in 2009-2013, but still a very tiny share (17533 EVs in 2013, 0.08%) Hundred of carmakers without champion China s EV production in 2011 China s Top 10 EV manufacturers in 2011 No. Firm Production Market share 1 Chery 2757 21.7% 2 Wuzhoulong 1270 10.0% 3 JAC 989 7.8% 4 BYD 876 6.9% 5 GAIC 809 6.4% 6 Jinlong 667 5.3% 7 SAIC 597 4.7% 8 CSR 597 4.7% 9 Yutong 576 4.5% 10 Zotye 464 3.7% Total 9602 75.6%
Main findings: (3)technological trajectory Although parallel technologies (as battery, hybrid, fuel cell) existed in the beginning, pure battery was selected as the dominant one by the government and later was enhanced by a series of stimulating policies (BEV 81%, PHEV 19%, 2013). The industrial production chains and networks changed by newcomers (including battery suppliers, infrastructure builders, the State Grid, and local governments), power shifting
Main findings: (4) Different strategies of incumbents and newcomers Outsourcing with control Vertical integration R&D alliance Business alliance Strong incumbents (large SOEs) SAIC; BAIC Week incumbents (small SOEs) JAC + Guoxuan; Zotye + Wanxiang Zotye + State Grid (Battery Swapping) newcomers BYD
Findings:(5)Excessively attentions were paid to the isolated technological elements or components, lack of integrated low-carbon transportation and G2V knowledge and coordinative mechanisms PEV Battery Driving Electromotor Power Train Grid and distribution system Digital communication HEV Plug-HEV Fuel Cell Isolated E-driven motor vehicles E- driven trains E-two wheels
Findings: (6)More in-depended on the government leading, while less market-driven Early R&D Market exploration Commercialization Dominated by the catching-up orientation projects (863), which was directed by the MOST (Ministry of Science & Technology) Less market-orientation product development Less industrial inside research institutes Over stressed on the function of the demonstration program Focusing on the minor cities and limited public market Over dependent on the government subsidy and the local government protection during the market permeate Both for SOEs and private enterprises
Findings:(6) Major problem facing by EV development in China The technological progress is still far from the reasonable market shaping and the mass consumption Technological catching-up goal setting and governmental leading project without accountability Lack of enough attention on the priorities of end users Lack of required capabilities of mass production and consumption Gov. subsidy private Consumers worrying about Cost Safety Charging infrastructure
4. Policy implications 1) more alignment among various policies The alignment should be enhanced, among the different policy goal-settings, such as industrial competitive policy, energy security policy, environment policy and so on, especially for the developing countries Should be more serious between the economic growth and low-carbon development especially facing the shortage of capacities, technological capabilities, which is the general dilemma for developing countries Should be more integrated among the different ministries recommended policies
2) more balance role of the central government The government role in low-carbon economy should be reviewed because there are some distorted signals with the government subsidy and sponsored projects, which maybe influence negatively on the trajectories Its major role should to be enabling the proper governance to encourage the newcomers with proper low-carbon technologies The government should be keep balance between dominant enterprise and newcomers, but in fact, the dominant parts played major roles both for gov. incomers and employment
3)Deeper long-term commitment to E-Mobility transitions E-mobility is a combination of technological systematic transition and societal transition The emerging of low-carbon transportation system must be based on dynamic and continuous improvement of the integrated innovation system, including the social transportation behavior evolution, government regulative capacities enhancement and the technological competencies accumulated Pure EV had been regarded as the great opportunity windows for the catching up strategies of Chinese Auto industry The poor performance in pure electric private car when the private market more prior HEV and low speed city e-car with lead-acid battery even if the usage of it is a illegality according to the traffic regulations in China Lesson : The technological processes should to be recognized as an integrated and board systematic transitions.
4)The new chance for the international cooperation in E-mobility It perhaps gives more chance to international cooperation, both for the international governance and technological fairs, when most of countries take the more integrated and systematic approaches in the low-carbon economy transition. We need understand each other more and more deeply with the board societal-technological perspective to realize the great challenges, which developing countries with shortage of transportation capacity and higher pressure to economic growth while developed countries with the citizens who want to lived in low-carbon environment at the same time to continue the benefits of their high-carbon intensity transportation and the related life style
Thanks for your time and attentions! Welcome your critical comments and suggestions!