Energy Economics Group Vienna University of Technology
Electric Vehicle related Projects ELEK TRA Project (2008 2009): Joanneum Research Forschungsgesellschaft mbh AVL ListGmbH Hybrid & Electric Vehicles Technological Assessment Ecological Assessment Economic Assessment Model Based Scenarios of market & fleet penetration Vehicle to Grid Strategies (2010 2012) AIT ICT Vienna University of Technology Interaction of EV an Grid Grid Requirements Load Profiles Charging Infrastructure Business Models Salzburg AG Vehicle to Grid Interfaces (2010 2011) ICT Vienna University of Technology CURE Interfaces for EV use Slb Salzburg AG
MARKET AND FLEET PENETRATION OF HYBRID AND ELECTRIC CARS IN AUSTRIA MODEL BASED ANALYSIS 2010 2050 2050 Maximilian Kloess Energy Economics Group Vienna University of Technology
Batteries control unit Motor/ Generator Transmission Control Unit Battery 12V Battery 12V Battery 12V Battery 12V Battery 12V Background Background: ELEK TRA Project 2008/2009: Joanneum Research Forschungsgesellschaft mbh AVL ListGmbH Hybrid & Electric Vehicles Technological Assessment Ecological Assessment Economic Assessment Model Based Scenarios of market & fleet penetration Electric vehicle Plug In Hybrids Series dirve Micro Hybrids Mild Hybrids Full Hybrids Plug In Hybrids Conventional Drive ICE CE IC Inverter Control Unit ICE Motor Generator Control Battery 200V INV Unit Tank mission Motor Transm ICE ICE INV Motor Tank otor Mo Generator Control Unit Inverte Battery 120V er Tank Transmission Motor Inverter ICE Motor Inverter Inverter Batteries 200V Tank clutch ssion Transmis Batteries 200V Tank DC/DC DC/DC Tank on Transmissi y DC/DC
Methodology Combination of bottom up and top down modelling approaches Bottom up vehicle technology model Bottom up fleet model dl Top down modeling of transport demand and service level Dynamic cost comparison of propulsion systems and fuels Logit model dlapproach for consumer decision i modelling ( market ktshares of technologies) Input parameters Fuel prices Income level Costs of technologies (components vehicles) Political i lframework conditions i Scenarios 2010 2050 Market and fleet penetration of vehicle technologies mean vehicle characteristics (mass, power, efficiency) Energy Consumptions (well to wheel) Greenhouse gas emissions (well to wheel)
Scheme of the model Vehicle Technology Model Bottom Up Fleet Model global le earning cost of component 1 cost of component n Net costs of vehicles: 3 vehicle classes 8 propulsion systems Greenhouse Gas Emissions Specific Service Costs & Determination of Market Shares Investment costs /km: Acquisition costs Vehicle life time Interest rate Kilomtres driven per year Biofuel Blending Energy Consumption & Fuel Mix Political Framework conditions: Tax on onwnership Tax on acquisition Fuel tax Subsidies service cost /km Market Shares (logit model) Annual vehicle registration By vehicle class Overall vehicle stock By propulsion system Fuel costs /km: Vehicle efficiency Net Fuel price taxation Technology Improvement: Efficiency of vehicles Technological learning effects (fuels) Exogenous Parameters: Income Fossil Fuel Price (Scenarios) Diffusion Barriers: Infrastructure Availability Top Down Demand Model D d Transport Demand & Service Level: Vehicle registrations Vehicle use (kilometrage) Vehicle characteristics Statistic Parameters: Fuels Technologies Age structure Distribution of classes Driving distances Transport demand figures
Scenario Settings Scenario framework conditions: Fossil fuel price development (scenarios) 014 0,14 0,12 0,10 /kw Wh 0,08 0,06 0,04 0,02 Gasoline/Diesel CNG Electricity 0,00
Scenario Settings Scenario framework conditions: Fossil fuel price development (scenarios) Political framework conditions (taxes, subsidies etc) Fuel Taxes: gasoline: 0,45 diesel: 0,35 Tax on acquisition: 0 16% Tax on ownership: 0 1500 Policy Scenarios 2010 2050
Scenario Settings Scenario framework conditions: Fossil fuel price development (scenarios) Political framework conditions (taxes, subsidies etc) Technological Learning of alternative powertrain technologies (key components) Fuel supply scenarios: Biofuel blending Sources of Electricity
Scenario Settings Assumptions for presented results: Policy Business as usual (BAU) Policy Active + low fuel price scenario Tax On Ownership Engine Power Businenss as Usual Policy 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Active Policy 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Vehicle Taxes Fuel Taxe es Tax on Acquisition Status 2010 CO2 threshold 140g/km CO2 threshold 120g/km CO2 threshold 100g/km Fuel Tax Status 2010 Scheme 1 Scheme 2 Scheme 3 Scheme 4 Status 2010 Scheme 1 Scheme 2 Scheme 3 Scheme 4 Gasoline kwh 1 0.051 0.051 0.05 0.07 0.10 Diesel kwh 1 0.036 0.036 0.05 0.07 0.10 CNG kwh 1 0 0.036 0.05 0.07 0.10 Electricity kwh 1 0 0 0 0 0.02
Results Business as usual (BAU) Fleet development: 6.000.000 vehicle es 5.000.000 4.000.000 3.000.000 2.000.000 1.000.000 Conventional Drive Micro Hybrids Mild Hybrid Hbid Full Hybrid Plug In Hybrid Series Hybrid EV Final energy consumption: TWh 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Gasoline Diesel CNG Electricity LR = 17,5% LR = 12,5%
Results Business as usual (BAU) WTW Energy Consumption: 60 50 renewable TW Wh 40 30 20 10 fossil LR = 12,5% LR = 17,5% 0 WTW Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 1000 0t CO2 equivalent 14 000 12 000 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 WTT Fuel Production TTW Fuel Burning TTW Vehicle Production LR = 12,5% LR = 17,5% 2 000 0
Results Policy Active Fleet development: 2050: 70% Electric or Plug In Hybrid Cars veh hicles 6.000.000 5.000.000 4.000.000 3.000.000 2.000.000 1.000.000 Conventional Drive Micro Hybrids Mild Hybrid Full Hybrid Plug In Hybrid Series Hybrid EV Final energy consumption: 2050: 50% electricity in the energy supply TWh 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Gasoline Diesel CNG Electricity LR = 17,5% LR = 12,5%
Results Characteristics of new cars in the two scenarios: Average mass: 1400 1350 1300 1250 kg 1200 1150 1100 1050 1000 BAU Scenario Policy Scenario Greenhouse gas emissions: 200 180 160 BAU Scenario Policy Scenario Average power: 75 70 g km 1 140 120 100 80 65 kw 60 55 BAU Scenario Policy Scenario 50
Results Policy Active WTW Energy Consumption: 60 50 renewable 40 fossil 2010 2050: 50% fossil energy demand with with 100% renewable electricity TW Wh 30 20 10 LR = 12,5% LR = 17,5% renewable 100% RES 0 WTW Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 2010 2050: 2050: 50% with fossil electricity (nat. gas) 65% with 100% renewable electricity 1000t CO O2 equivalent 14 000 12 000 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 WTT Fuel Production TTW Fuel Burning TTW Vehicle Production LR = 12,5% LR = 17,5% 100% RES electricitiy 0
Results Business as usual (BAU) Fleet development: veh hicles 6.000.000 5.000.000 4.000.000 3.000.000 2.000.000 1.000.000 Conventional Drive Micro Hybrids Mild Hybrid Full Hybrid Plug In Hybrid Series Hybrid EV Active Policy Scenario Fleet development: icles vehi 6.000.000 5.000.000 4.000.000 3.000.000 2.000.000 1.000.000 Conventional Drive Micro Hybrids Mild Hybrid Full Hybrid Plug In Hybrid Series Hybrid EV
Thank you for your attention! Maximilian KLOESS (Msc) Energy Economics Group Vienna University of Technology Gusshausstraße 25 29, 1040 Wien, +43 (1) 58801 37371 kloess@eeg.tuwien.ac.at www.eeg.tuwien.ac.at