India Smart Grid Week, 2017 N. Venu President and Head, Power Grids Division, South Asia, Middle East and Africa ABB 1 Big Shift in Power: Shaping the System of the Future
Several global challenges Population growth & urbanization Paris climate agreement (COP 21) Average global temperature increase <2 C $100 billion/a to support developing countries Emission peak soon, 2050 balance of emissions and capturing Source: UN World urbanization prospects: 2012 revision 2
Elements of the evolving grid Grid interconnection Demand management Digitalization Residential roof top solar plus Micro- and Nano-grids Energy storage & power quality New business models the Energy Revolution in combination with Digitalization, impacting across the value chain Source: UN World urbanization prospects: 2012 revision 3
Percentage of total power generation RES contribution to annual total demand [%] Changing power generation balance Power generation Coal, gas, nuclear, oil Centralized vs decentralized Power balance tipping towards renewables, driven by policy & disruptive technology cost reduction Main growth in variable renewables such as wind and solar Two growth paths Mainly centralized renewables Mainly distributed renewables 100 2015 2010 2015 2030 2035 2040 All RES Variable RES Distributed* RES C-RES 2020 2015 2015 2020 2015 100 2030 2030 2030 2020 2015 2020 2030 D-RES DK, Ministry of Energy DE, Energiewende IN, 5-years dev t plan CN, Government plan CH, Energy Strategy 2050 0 10 20 30 50 40 60 70 80 90 100 Distributed RES* contribution to annual total demand [%] Renewables expected to be dominant source for electrical power generation units <50 MW connected to MV/LV, Source: BNEF, ABB analysis 4
1977 1981 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 $/watt Disruptive developments driving key changes Price history of silicon PV cells 1 Yearly demand for EV batt. power 2 Cost for lithium-ion battery packs 2 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 $76.00 $0.30 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 $1,200 per kilowatt hour 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 gigawatt hours Actual Estimated 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Batteries & photovoltaic Dramatic cost reduction to be continued Scalability of technologies Consumer investment across market segments accelerating developments 1 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance & pv.energytrend.com 2 Source: Data compiled by Bloomberg New Energy Finance 5
Max. hourly variable renewable generation as a percentage of total demand Grid enabler or bottleneck? Technical challenges countries encounter Short circuit power & significant variable RES curtailment Germany System inertia & grid voltage Grid capacity & reserve Conventional operation 2012 Today 2040 Take away message Significant grid investment & technologies required to address challenges 6
A global interconnected grid brings many advantages Opportunities Renewable integration across regions Fluctuations during the day Seasonal variations Optimal use of reserve and peaking capacities Diversification of electricity supply Reduction of wholesale electricity price volatility Strengthening grid operation in case of fault conditions Increase capacity utilization factor of conventional generation ABB is building the world s1 st multi-terminal UHVDC grid A global interconnected HVDC grid would bring many advantages 7
Microgrids and integration of renewables Resilient and costeffective technology Grid code compliant integration of wind & solar Marble Bar, Australia PV* (300 kw) Diesel (1280 kw) Flywheel (500 kw) Stabilizing weak grids Microgrids acting as one controllable generator or load Access to power in remote locations Kodiak Island, Alaska, USA Wind (9MW) Diesel Flywheel (2 x 1MW) 8
Power quality & storage solutions increasingly needed Generation Grid Transport Higher reliability rail network Postponement of grid upgrades Dispatchable = more $ per kwh Compliance with grid codes Integration of distributed renewables & EV Industry and large commercial Reduced fees from harmonic pollution & demand peaks Microgrids Stabilization New revenue from ancillary grid services Residential and small commercial Increase self-consumption 9
From conventional to digital substations Fit for future grid requirements CAPEX reduction Reduced footprint (AIS) Queensland, Australia 275 kv digital substation with digital sensors & 61850 digital communication bus, in operation since 2011 Up to 80% less copper cabling Reduced engineering & installation time Improved safety OPEX reduction Asset health & predictive maintenance Up to 50% reduction in outages Fast & easy reconfiguration Enabling flexibility for new and existing substations 10
Power systems of the future-an evolutionary vision Renewables will take major share in electrical power generation Disruptive elements Photovoltaics Batteries Digitalization Distributed generation with changing consumer & producer patterns Distribution grid role changing Transmission backbone essential New business & operational models Self sufficiency x % capacity x kwh Grid Interconnection Interconnected system of regional grids with fluctuating demand and generation patterns 11
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