LAMPIRAN
64 Lampiran 1. Penjualan PT Honda Mandiri Bogor 29-211 PENJUALAN 29 TYPE JAN FEB MAR APR MEI JUNI JULI AGT SEP OKT NOV DES TOTA JAZZ 16 14 22 15 23 19 13 28 15 28 3 25 248 FREED 23 25 14 4 13 22 137 CITY 3 9 4 7 2 3 3 4 2 3 7 8 55 CR-V 6 1 1 12 11 11 12 15 9 1 16 12 134 CIVIC 1 2 1 2 4 1 1 6 2 2 1 3 26 TOTAL 26 35 37 36 4 34 52 78 42 83 67 7 6 PENJUALAN 21 TYPE JAN FEB MAR APR MEI JUNI JULI AGT SEP OKT NOV DES TOTA JAZZ 15 27 25 24 28 37 29 38 17 39 13 39 331 CITY 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 3 11 7 2 8 59 FREED 6 1 14 21 18 21 26 2 8 11 7 22 184 CR-V 4 15 22 24 21 23 2 29 17 11 7 19 212 CIVIC 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 4-5 2 7 37 TOTAL 3 58 67 76 75 89 82 94 53 73 31 95 823 PENJUALAN 211 TYPE JAN FEB MAR APR MEI JUNI JULI AGT SEP OKT NOV DES TOTA CITY - 6 4 5 5 3 1 5 2-1 - 32 CIVIC 2 1 1 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 2-21 CR-V 7 15 14 21 22 8 9 17 8 13 13 16 163 JAZZ 16 24 22 3 15 37 39 3 37 23 33 13 292 FREED 6 9 1 9 22 22 2 21 26 13 12 22 192 TOTAL 31 55 51 41 67 73 71 75 74 5 61 51 7
65 Lampiran 2. Uji Stasioneritas Null Hypothesis: CITY has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=9) t-statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -5.358127.1 Stasioner Test critical values: 1% level -3.6329 5% level -2.94844 1% level -2.612874 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Null Hypothesis: CIVIC has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 2 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=9) t-statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.663838.96 Stasioner Test critical values: 1% level -3.646342 5% level -2.95421 1% level -2.615817 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Null Hypothesis: FREED has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=9) t-statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.94217.5 stasioner Test critical values: 1% level -3.6329 5% level -2.94844 1% level -2.612874 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
66 Lanjutan Lampiran 2. Null Hypothesis: JAZZ has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=9) t-statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -5.784174. Stasioner Test critical values: 1% level -3.6329 5% level -2.94844 1% level -2.612874 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Null Hypothesis: CRV has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=9) t-statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.18992.37 Stasioner Test critical values: 1% level -3.6329 5% level -2.94844 1% level -2.612874 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Semua Variable stasioner pada level
67 Lampiran 3. Uji Kausalitas Granger Pairwise Granger Causality Tests Date: 3/8/12 Time: 13:46 Sample: 29M1 211M12 Lags: 2 Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Prob. CIVIC does not Granger Cause CITY 34 2.39333.191 CITY does not Granger Cause CIVIC 1.6311.2132 CRV does not Granger Cause CITY 34 1.71391.1979 CITY does not Granger Cause CRV 3.89322.318 FREED does not Granger Cause CITY 34.91566.4115 CITY does not Granger Cause FREED 3.1793.645 JAZZ does not Granger Cause CITY 34 1.4841.2434 CITY does not Granger Cause JAZZ.485.6687 CRV does not Granger Cause CIVIC 34.2827.7563 CIVIC does not Granger Cause CRV 2.37823.116 FREED does not Granger Cause CIVIC 34.3716.6938 CIVIC does not Granger Cause FREED 3.66464.381 JAZZ does not Granger Cause CIVIC 34 3.59395.43 CIVIC does not Granger Cause JAZZ 2.4293.182 FREED does not Granger Cause CRV 34.3269.9679 CRV does not Granger Cause FREED.1165.937 JAZZ does not Granger Cause CRV 34 1.94242.1616 CRV does not Granger Cause JAZZ 1.13838.3342 JAZZ does not Granger Cause FREED 34 1.79114.1847 FREED does not Granger Cause JAZZ 3.22991.541
68 Lampiran 4. Uji Lag Optimum VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria Endogenous variables: JAZZ CITY CIVIC CRV FREED Exogenous variables: C Date: 3/8/12 Time: 13:48 Sample: 29M1 211M12 Included observations: 34 Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ -484.485 NA 2199347. 28.79297 29.1744* 28.86952* 1-457.114 45.7421* 1949435.* 28.65377* 3.56 29.1136 2-433.9642 31.3236 246688. 28.7626 31.23171 29.6464 * indicates lag order selected by the criterion LR: sequential modified LR test statistic (each test at 5% level) FPE: Final prediction error AIC: Akaike information criterion SC: Schwarz information criterion HQ: Hannan-Quinn information criterion berdasarkan nilai AIC optimum di lag1 Lampiran 5. Hasil Estimasi VAR VAR Lag 1 Vector Autoregression Estimates Date: 3/8/12 Time: 13:5 Sample (adjusted): 29M3 211M12 Included observations: 34 after adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ] CRV FREED CITY CIVIC JAZZ CRV(-1).632257.183375.337285.1118 -.1217 (.22313) (.33862) (.9268) (.6367) (.36917) [ 2.83363] [.54154] [ 3.6398] [.17559] [-.27147] CRV(-2) -.3468.11148 -.227674 -.256.15437 (.23524) (.357) (.9772) (.6713) (.38921) [-.12952] [.28333] [-2.32994] [-.3813] [.39646] FREED(-1).52149.277635.3135.5523.37274 (.12851) (.1953) (.5338) (.3667) (.21262) [.458] [ 1.42356] [.58728] [ 1.5611] [ 1.7534]
69 Lanjutan Lampiran 5. FREED(-2) -.119741.16558.52442 -.2681.84146 (.12866) (.19526) (.5345) (.3671) (.21288) [-.9365] [.82228] [.98123] [-.7324] [.39528] CITY(-1) -.9633 -.782434.15496.14582.552611 (.4395) (.6133) (.1678) (.11527) (.66834) [-2.38471] [-1.27633] [.92318] [ 1.21962] [.82684] CITY(-2).3115-1.6568.644992.132936 -.4537 (.49765) (.75523) (.2672) (.142) (.82337) [.6488] [-1.4117] [ 3.1218] [.93615] [-.5527] CIVIC(-1) -1.15235 -.38544 -.9313 -.41625-1.24661 (.8459) (1.28374) (.35138) (.24138) (1.39956) [-1.218] [-.322] [-2.5718] [-.17245] [-.73213] CIVIC(-2).122678 1.855289.6952.3582 2.378125 (.8351) (1.21942) (.33377) (.22928) (1.32943) [.15268] [ 1.52146] [ 2.6745] [.15615] [ 1.78883] JAZZ(-1) -.3818 -.185678 -.1643 -.85542 -.11544 (.12461) (.18912) (.5176) (.3556) (.2618) [-.3639] [-.98182] [-.31689] [-2.4565] [-.55798] JAZZ(-2).138217 -.27127 -.18479.48146.6538 (.13294) (.2176) (.5522) (.3794) (.21996) [ 1.3967] [-.13446] [-.33463] [ 1.26916] [.29724] C 9.349842 14.3277 -.874476 1.64575 15.653 (5.4297) (8.19957) (2.24433) (1.54174) (8.93934) [ 1.735] [ 1.74653] [-.38964] [ 1.6744] [ 1.68475] R-squared.452373.49743.49748.367688.422564 Adj. R-squared.214275.278366.278373.9277.17156 Sum sq. resids 65.949 1395.573 14.5549 49.33894 1658.752 S.E. equation 5.132797 7.78955 2.13214 1.46464 8.492328 F-statistic 1.899941 2.272954 2.272998 1.337445 1.683129 Log likelihood -97.21131-111.3938-67.3489-54.57391-114.337 Akaike AIC 6.365371 7.199636 4.68288 3.857289 7.372396 Schwarz SC 6.859194 7.693458 5.1211 4.351111 7.866218 Mean dependent 14.5 15.8824 3.941176 2.382353 24.73529 S.D. dependent 5.79536 9.169672 2.59874 1.53772 9.336 Determinant resid covariance (dofadj. 592586.6 Determinant resid covariance 83945.31 Log likelihood -433.9642 Akaike information criterion 28.7626 Schwarz criterion 31.23171
7 Lampiran 6. Uji Stabilitas Model Roots of Characteristic Polynomial Endogenous variables: JAZZ CITY CIVIC CRV FREED Exogenous variables: C Lag specification: 1 1 Date: 3/8/12 Time: 13:49 Root Modulus.47991 -.51158i.411186.47991 +.51158i.411186 -.95618 -.242714i.2687 -.95618 +.242714i.2687.151272.151272 No root lies outside the unit circle. VAR satisfies the stability condition. nilai modulus < 1 artinya stabil
71 Lampiran 7. Impulse Response Ketika CRV diimpuls Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations ± 2 S.E. Response of CRV to CRV Response of FREED to CRV 8 6 6 4 4 2 2-2 -2-4 -4-6 Response of CITY to CRV Response of CIVIC to CRV 3 1.2 2.8.4 1. -.4-1 -.8 Response of JAZZ to CRV 8 4-4
72 Lanjutan Lampiran 7. Ketika Freed di Impuls Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations ± 2 S.E. Response of CRV to FREED Response of FREED to FREED 3 1. 2 7.5 1-1 -2 5. 2.5. -3-2.5-4 -5. Response of CITY to FREED Response of CIVIC to FREED 1.5 1. 1..5.5.. -.5-1. -.5-1.5-1. Response of JAZZ to FREED 6 4 2-2 -4
73 Lanjutan Lampiran 7. Ketika City di Impuls Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations ± 2 S.E. Response of CRV to CITY Response of FREED to CITY 2 4 1 2-1 -2-2 -4-3 -6-4 -8 Response of CITY to CITY Response of CIVIC to CITY 3 1.2 2.8.4 1. -.4-1 -.8 Response of JAZZ to CITY 6 4 2-2 -4-6
74 Lanjutan Lampiran 7. Ketika Civic di Impuls Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations ± 2 S.E. 4 Response of CRV to CIVIC 8 Response of FREED to CIVIC 2 4-2 -4-4 2 Response of CITY to CIVIC 2 Response of CIVIC to CIVIC 1 1-1 -2-3 -1 8 Response of JAZZ to CIVIC 4-4
75 Lanjutan Lampiran 7. Ketika Jazz di Impuls Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations ± 2 S.E. Response of CRV to JAZZ Response of FREED to JAZZ 4 4 3 2 2 1-2 -1-2 -4-3 -6 Response of CITY to JAZZ Response of CIVIC to JAZZ 1.5 1. 1..5.5.. -.5 -.5-1. -1. -1.5-1.5 Response of JAZZ to JAZZ 1. 7.5 5. 2.5. -2.5-5.
76 Lampiran 8. Forecast Error Variance Decomposition of CRV, Freed, City, Civic, Jazz Variance Decomposition of CRV: Period S.E. CRV FREED CITY CIVIC JAZZ 1 5.132797 1 2 6.214425 83.2434.698228 1.34916 5.53674.25897 3 6.77191 7.32992 1.51516 13.9616 8.73976 5.49781 4 6.866741 68.85435 1.63371 15.51364 8.524412 5.47389 5 6.97578 66.83976 1.98259 15.88354 9.18387 6.27855 6 6.986561 66.69964 1.977615 15.99279 9.72868 6.25786 7 7.3468 66.37932 2.72862 16.5328 9.11513 6.379535 8 7.7291 66.3556 2.787 16.6457 9.131627 6.377938 9 7.1428 66.29763 2.94769 16.6979 9.138272 6.399537 1 7.11238 66.29332 2.9432 16.6981 9.142766 6.399778 11 7.11743 66.28435 2.98949 16.6958 9.143882 6.43235 12 7.1191 66.2833 2.98856 16.6919 9.145175 6.4348 13 7.11979 66.2819 2.9961 16.692 9.145421 6.4444 14 7.1211 66.28163 2.99593 16.6889 9.145737 6.44149 15 7.1223 66.2814 2.9971 16.6885 9.145798 6.44247 16 7.123 66.28132 2.9979 16.6882 9.145868 6.4428 17 7.1232 66.28128 2.99728 16.6881 9.145882 6.44298 18 7.1233 66.28126 2.99729 16.688 9.145897 6.4437 19 7.1234 66.28126 2.99731 16.688 9.1459 6.44311 2 7.1234 66.28125 2.99732 16.688 9.14593 6.44313 21 7.1234 66.28125 2.99732 16.688 9.14594 6.44313 22 7.1234 66.28125 2.99733 16.688 9.14594 6.44314 23 7.1234 66.28125 2.99733 16.688 9.14595 6.44314 24 7.1234 66.28125 2.99733 16.688 9.14595 6.44314 25 7.1234 66.28125 2.99733 16.688 9.14595 6.44314 26 7.1234 66.28125 2.99733 16.688 9.14595 6.44314 27 7.1234 66.28125 2.99733 16.688 9.14595 6.44314 28 7.1234 66.28125 2.99733 16.688 9.14595 6.44314 29 7.1234 66.28125 2.99733 16.688 9.14595 6.44314 3 7.1234 66.28125 2.99733 16.688 9.14595 6.44314 31 7.1234 66.28125 2.99733 16.688 9.14595 6.44314 32 7.1234 66.28125 2.99733 16.688 9.14595 6.44314 33 7.1234 66.28125 2.99733 16.688 9.14595 6.44314 34 7.1234 66.28125 2.99733 16.688 9.14595 6.44314 35 7.1234 66.28125 2.99733 16.688 9.14595 6.44314 36 7.1234 66.28125 2.99733 16.688 9.14595 6.44314 37 7.1234 66.28125 2.99733 16.688 9.14595 6.44314 38 7.1234 66.28125 2.99733 16.688 9.14595 6.44314 39 7.1234 66.28125 2.99733 16.688 9.14595 6.44314 4 7.1234 66.28125 2.99733 16.688 9.14595 6.44314
Period S.E. CRV FREED CITY CIVIC JAZZ 41 7.1234 66.28125 2.99733 16.688 9.14595 6.44314 42 7.1234 66.28125 2.99733 16.688 9.14595 6.44314 43 7.1234 66.28125 2.99733 16.688 9.14595 6.44314 44 7.1234 66.28125 2.99733 16.688 9.14595 6.44314 45 7.1234 66.28125 2.99733 16.688 9.14595 6.44314 46 7.1234 66.28125 2.99733 16.688 9.14595 6.44314 47 7.1234 66.28125 2.99733 16.688 9.14595 6.44314 48 7.1234 66.28125 2.99733 16.688 9.14595 6.44314 49 7.1234 66.28125 2.99733 16.688 9.14595 6.44314 5 7.1234 66.28125 2.99733 16.688 9.14595 6.44314 77
78 Lanjutan Lampiran 8. Variance Decomposition of FREED: Period S.E. CRV FREED CITY CIVIC JAZZ 1 7.78955.146454 99.85355 2 8.474693.459953 92.7215 2.742966 2.16437 2.61849 3 1.14399 1.211118 73.71163 12.34261 1.88886 1.845774 4 1.5558 3.322583 69.95531 12.74615 1.21849 3.757478 5 1.7629 3.244629 67.84579 14.51149 1.31251 4.85584 6 1.83375 4.45776 66.99319 14.71529 1.2119 4.3384 7 1.8875 4.132714 66.75486 14.77384 1.11862 4.219968 8 1.89797 4.232728 66.64228 14.79771 1.11381 4.21347 9 1.9199 4.253691 66.621 14.79864 1.1792 4.219735 1 1.9316 4.263619 66.6698 14.848 1.1955 4.219373 11 1.9362 4.266686 66.6422 14.823 1.191 4.219845 12 1.9384 4.268535 66.6199 14.7999 1.1976 4.219813 13 1.9391 4.268856 66.6169 14.79977 1.1969 4.219995 14 1.9395 4.269149 66.6126 14.79967 1.1989 4.2236 15 1.9396 4.26916 66.6124 14.79965 1.1989 4.2263 16 1.9396 4.269189 66.6116 14.79964 1.1992 4.2288 17 1.9397 4.269189 66.6116 14.79964 1.1993 4.2291 18 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.2298 19 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.2298 2 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.221 21 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.221 22 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.221 23 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.221 24 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.221 25 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.221 26 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.221 27 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.221 28 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.221 29 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.221 3 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.221 31 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.221 32 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.221 33 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.221 34 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.221 35 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.221 36 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.221 37 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.221 38 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.221 39 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.221 4 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.221 41 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.221 42 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.221 43 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.221 44 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.221 45 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.221 46 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.221
Period S.E. CRV FREED CITY CIVIC JAZZ 47 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.221 48 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.221 49 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.221 5 1.9397 4.269191 66.6114 14.79964 1.1993 4.221 79
8 Lanjutan Lampiran 8. Variance Decomposition of CITY: Period S.E. CRV FREED CITY CIVIC JAZZ 1 2.13214 1.88878 7.7872 9.33122 2 2.81853 22.22664 5.28752 53.11297 19.19269.186957 3 2.915278 22.39328 5.53398 5.48922 2.41341 1.1719 4 2.962667 22.599 5.724142 49.36415 2.86664 1.98598 5 2.999142 22.42388 5.689397 48.17736 21.5269 2.182454 6 3.13761 22.2751 5.9245 47.81296 21.53295 2.544541 7 3.21517 22.28491 5.88591 47.57154 21.61 2.658362 8 3.23824 22.25252 5.92913 47.541 21.6812 2.7616 9 3.25235 22.25247 5.931914 47.4673 21.62156 2.733321 1 3.25632 22.24689 5.939871 47.44829 21.62354 2.741412 11 3.25866 22.24553 5.94335 47.44116 21.62712 2.745844 12 3.25936 22.24459 5.941229 47.439 21.62792 2.747263 13 3.25983 22.24412 5.941362 47.43761 21.62869 2.748222 14 3.25997 22.24396 5.941442 47.43717 21.62893 2.748489 15 3.267 22.24384 5.941486 47.43688 21.6298 2.74871 16 3.261 22.24382 5.941497 47.43678 21.62914 2.748772 17 3.2612 22.24379 5.94151 47.43671 21.62916 2.748819 18 3.2613 22.24379 5.941513 47.43669 21.62918 2.748834 19 3.2614 22.24378 5.941516 47.43668 21.62918 2.748844 2 3.2614 22.24378 5.941517 47.43667 21.62919 2.748847 21 3.2614 22.24378 5.941517 47.43667 21.62919 2.748849 22 3.2614 22.24378 5.941517 47.43667 21.62919 2.74885 23 3.2614 22.24378 5.941518 47.43667 21.62919 2.748851 24 3.2614 22.24378 5.941518 47.43667 21.62919 2.748851 25 3.2614 22.24378 5.941518 47.43667 21.62919 2.748851 26 3.2614 22.24378 5.941518 47.43667 21.62919 2.748851 27 3.2614 22.24378 5.941518 47.43667 21.62919 2.748851 28 3.2614 22.24378 5.941518 47.43667 21.62919 2.748851 29 3.2614 22.24378 5.941518 47.43667 21.62919 2.748851 3 3.2614 22.24378 5.941518 47.43667 21.62919 2.748851 31 3.2614 22.24378 5.941518 47.43667 21.62919 2.748851 32 3.2614 22.24378 5.941518 47.43667 21.62919 2.748851 33 3.2614 22.24378 5.941518 47.43667 21.62919 2.748851 34 3.2614 22.24378 5.941518 47.43667 21.62919 2.748851 35 3.2614 22.24378 5.941518 47.43667 21.62919 2.748851 36 3.2614 22.24378 5.941518 47.43667 21.62919 2.748851 37 3.2614 22.24378 5.941518 47.43667 21.62919 2.748851 38 3.2614 22.24378 5.941518 47.43667 21.62919 2.748851 39 3.2614 22.24378 5.941518 47.43667 21.62919 2.748851 4 3.2614 22.24378 5.941518 47.43667 21.62919 2.748851 41 3.2614 22.24378 5.941518 47.43667 21.62919 2.748851 42 3.2614 22.24378 5.941518 47.43667 21.62919 2.748851 43 3.2614 22.24378 5.941518 47.43667 21.62919 2.748851 44 3.2614 22.24378 5.941518 47.43667 21.62919 2.748851 45 3.2614 22.24378 5.941518 47.43667 21.62919 2.748851 46 3.2614 22.24378 5.941518 47.43667 21.62919 2.748851
Period S.E. CRV FREED CITY CIVIC JAZZ 47 3.2614 22.24378 5.941518 47.43667 21.62919 2.748851 48 3.2614 22.24378 5.941518 47.43667 21.62919 2.748851 49 3.2614 22.24378 5.941518 47.43667 21.62919 2.748851 5 3.2614 22.24378 5.941518 47.43667 21.62919 2.748851 81
Lanjutan Lampiran 8. Variance Decomposition of CIVIC: Period S.E. CRV FREED CITY CIVIC JAZZ 1 1.46464 13.6998 8.658428.38495 77.26127 2 1.79725 1.13574 9.18943 5.244743 61.94594 13.65463 3 1.822192 13.121 11.25458 4.65781 55.19148 15.89494 4 1.842237 12.73427 11.5816 4.996859 55.53816 15.67255 5 1.85855 12.97568 11.7118 4.95361 54.93513 16.6495 6 1.865342 12.89481 11.3157 4.97641 54.64227 16.1781 7 1.86772 12.96948 11.28747 4.97296 54.62132 16.15143 8 1.868836 12.95793 11.327 4.96677 54.57949 16.1758 9 1.869292 12.96268 11.31655 4.963666 54.5766 16.185 1 1.869419 12.9692 11.31827 4.9639 54.57524 16.18255 11 1.869521 12.9695 11.31771 4.962568 54.57428 16.1845 12 1.869552 12.9658 11.3187 4.96248 54.57386 16.1858 13 1.869573 12.9656 11.31797 4.962351 54.57367 16.18544 14 1.86958 12.965 11.3183 4.962314 54.57357 16.18558 15 1.869584 12.9648 11.3184 4.96238 54.57351 16.18567 16 1.869586 12.9647 11.3184 4.96231 54.5735 16.18569 17 1.869587 12.9646 11.3185 4.962299 54.57348 16.18571 18 1.869587 12.9646 11.3185 4.962298 54.57348 16.18571 19 1.869587 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57348 16.18572 2 1.869587 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57347 16.18572 21 1.869588 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57347 16.18572 22 1.869588 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57347 16.18572 23 1.869588 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57347 16.18572 24 1.869588 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57347 16.18572 25 1.869588 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57347 16.18572 26 1.869588 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57347 16.18572 27 1.869588 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57347 16.18572 28 1.869588 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57347 16.18572 29 1.869588 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57347 16.18572 3 1.869588 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57347 16.18572 31 1.869588 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57347 16.18572 32 1.869588 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57347 16.18572 33 1.869588 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57347 16.18572 34 1.869588 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57347 16.18572 35 1.869588 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57347 16.18572 36 1.869588 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57347 16.18572 37 1.869588 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57347 16.18572 38 1.869588 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57347 16.18572 39 1.869588 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57347 16.18572 4 1.869588 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57347 16.18572 41 1.869588 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57347 16.18572 42 1.869588 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57347 16.18572 43 1.869588 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57347 16.18572 44 1.869588 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57347 16.18572 45 1.869588 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57347 16.18572 46 1.869588 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57347 16.18572 47 1.869588 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57347 16.18572 82
Period S.E. CRV FREED CITY CIVIC JAZZ 48 1.869588 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57347 16.18572 49 1.869588 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57347 16.18572 5 1.869588 12.9646 11.3185 4.962297 54.57347 16.18572 83
Lanjutan Lampiran 8. Variance Decomposition of JAZZ: Period S.E. CRV FREED CITY CIVIC JAZZ 1 8.492328.358337.459676 1.8912 21.65685 75.63513 2 9.73722 1.22444 5.58129 3.29438 22.7921 67.12995 3 1.27548 7.885759 8.739189 4.664269 25.92927 52.78151 4 1.83258 7.15692 13.7991 4.272544 23.33125 51.4465 5 1.96566 7.294837 13.5288 5.3791 23.6662 5.47397 6 1.99393 7.444563 13.4878 5.233546 23.58928 5.24482 7 11.3148 7.47759 13.63323 5.31595 23.5235 5.1471 8 11.3715 7.442199 13.6253 5.347365 23.568 5.8923 9 11.497 7.44181 13.62989 5.35446 23.49849 5.7613 1 11.4195 7.445435 13.62746 5.357498 23.538 5.6923 11 11.4253 7.445126 13.62853 5.358687 23.581 5.6685 12 11.4277 7.446418 13.62796 5.358832 23.5151 5.6528 13 11.429 7.44631 13.62838 5.358952 23.5147 5.6488 14 11.4295 7.446599 13.62825 5.358916 23.5166 5.6457 15 11.4297 7.446571 13.62833 5.358914 23.5167 5.6451 16 11.4298 7.446611 13.62831 5.35894 23.5171 5.6446 17 11.4299 7.44666 13.62832 5.35891 23.5172 5.6445 18 11.4299 7.446611 13.62832 5.358899 23.5172 5.6445 19 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358899 23.5173 5.6444 2 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358899 23.5173 5.6444 21 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358898 23.5173 5.6444 22 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358898 23.5173 5.6444 23 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358898 23.5173 5.6444 24 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358898 23.5173 5.6444 25 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358898 23.5173 5.6444 26 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358898 23.5173 5.6444 27 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358898 23.5173 5.6444 28 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358898 23.5173 5.6444 29 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358898 23.5173 5.6444 3 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358898 23.5173 5.6444 31 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358898 23.5173 5.6444 32 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358898 23.5173 5.6444 33 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358898 23.5173 5.6444 34 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358898 23.5173 5.6444 35 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358898 23.5173 5.6444 36 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358898 23.5173 5.6444 37 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358898 23.5173 5.6444 38 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358898 23.5173 5.6444 39 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358898 23.5173 5.6444 4 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358898 23.5173 5.6444 41 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358898 23.5173 5.6444 42 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358898 23.5173 5.6444 43 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358898 23.5173 5.6444 44 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358898 23.5173 5.6444 45 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358898 23.5173 5.6444 46 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358898 23.5173 5.6444 47 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358898 23.5173 5.6444 84
85 Period S.E. CRV FREED CITY CIVIC JAZZ 48 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358898 23.5173 5.6444 49 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358898 23.5173 5.6444 5 11.4299 7.44661 13.62832 5.358898 23.5173 5.6444 Cholesky Ordering: CRV FREED CITY CIVIC JAZZ Lampiran 9. Regresi Model Minitab Regression Analysis: Jazz versus jlag1, Freed,... The regression equation is Jazz = 12.3 +.195 jlag1 +.333 Freed +.258 flag1 +.11 City -.5 citlag1 -.38 CR-V +.185 crlag1 + 2.94 Civic - 2.11 civlag1 Predictor Coef SE Coef T P Constant 12.3 1.51 1.17.256 jlag1.1945.2387.82.425 Freed.3334.2535 1.32.24 flag1.2585.2459 1.5.36 City.115.7471.14.893 citlag1 -.53 1.5 -.5.622 CR-V -.377.477 -.75.46 crlag1.1855.436.43.672 Civic 2.942 1.557 1.89.74 civlag1-2.17 1.378-1.53.143 S = 8.89967 R-Sq = 41.3% R-Sq(adj) = 13.4% Analysis of Variance Source DF SS MS F P Regression 9 157.26 117.47 1.48.224 Residual Error 19 154.88 79.2 Total 28 2562.14 Source DF Seq SS jlag1 1 41.44 Freed 1 429.8 flag1 1 67.66 City 1 31.28 citlag1 1 6.23 CR-V 1.1 crlag1 1 75.59 Civic 1 22.74 civlag1 1 185.23 Unusual Observations Obs jlag1 Jazz Fit SE Fit Residual St Resid 22 22. 3. 23.52 3.67-2.52-2.53R R denotes an observation with a large standardized residual
86 Lanjutan Lampiran 9. Regression Analysis: jlag1 versus Jazz, Freed,... The regression equation is jlag1 = 18.6 +.174 Jazz -.144 Freed +.311 flag1 -.249 City +.857 citlag1 +.353 CR-V -.234 crlag1-3.39 Civic + 1.59 civlag1 Predictor Coef SE Coef T P Constant 18.613 9.359 1.99.61 Jazz.1737.2131.82.425 Freed -.1442.248 -.58.568 flag1.311.2282 1.36.189 City -.2488.74 -.35.728 citlag1.8572.9351.92.371 CR-V.3533.3825.92.367 crlag1 -.2344.453 -.58.57 Civic -3.395 1.42-2.42.26 civlag1 1.589 1.33 1.19.247 S = 8.4931 R-Sq = 47.6% R-Sq(adj) = 22.7% Analysis of Variance Source DF SS MS F P Regression 9 1218.52 135.39 1.91.112 Residual Error 19 1343.61 7.72 Total 28 2562.14 Source DF Seq SS Jazz 1 41.44 Freed 1 88.75 flag1 1 514.92 City 1 64.12 citlag1 1.3 CR-V 1. crlag1 1 48.86 Civic 1 359.47 civlag1 1 1.93 Unusual Observations Obs Jazz jlag1 Fit SE Fit Residual St Resid 23 15. 3. 21.32 4.7-18.32-2.49R R denotes an observation with a large standardized residual.
87 Lanjutan Lampiran 9. Regression Analysis: Freed versus flag1, Jazz,... The regression equation is Freed = 14.1 +.76 flag1 +.25 Jazz -.121 jlag1 -.526 City - 1.17 citlag1 -.124 CR-V +.438 crlag1 +.86 Civic -.71 civlag1 Predictor Coef SE Coef T P Constant 14.118 8.861 1.59.128 flag1.759.2185.35.732 Jazz.254.193 1.32.24 jlag1 -.1213.285 -.58.568 City -.5264.6363 -.83.418 citlag1-1.1715.8341-1.4.176 CR-V -.1244.3574 -.35.732 crlag1.4384.3612 1.21.24 Civic.856 1.458.59.564 civlag1 -.78 1.255 -.56.579 S = 7.71196 R-Sq = 33.8% R-Sq(adj) = 2.4% Analysis of Variance Source DF SS MS F P Regression 9 576.68 64.8 1.8.422 Residual Error 19 113.1 59.47 Total 28 176.69 Source DF Seq SS flag1 1 1.42 Jazz 1 31.28 jlag1 1 64.41 City 1 15.49 citlag1 1 79.37 CR-V 1 17.22 crlag1 1 57.8 Civic 1 12.49 civlag1 1 18.92 Unusual Observations Obs flag1 Freed Fit SE Fit Residual St Resid 4 14. 4. 19.45 3.24 2.55 2.94R 29 13. 12. 25.14 4.46-13.14-2.9R R denotes an observation with a large standardized residual.
88 Lanjutan Lampiran 9. Regression Analysis: flag1 versus Freed, Jazz,... The regression equation is flag1 = 2. +.83 Freed +.213 Jazz +.286 jlag1 -.65 City -.21 citlag1 -.128 CR-V +.189 crlag1 -.35 Civic +.69 civlag1 Predictor Coef SE Coef T P Constant 2. 9.862.2.841 Freed.831.2393.35.732 Jazz.2126.222 1.5.36 jlag1.2865.211 1.36.189 City -.651.6776 -.1.925 citlag1 -.298.9158 -.23.821 CR-V -.1284.3741 -.34.735 crlag1.1889.39.48.634 Civic -.353 1.537 -.23.821 civlag1.691 1.314.53.65 S = 8.742 R-Sq = 28.% R-Sq(adj) =.% Analysis of Variance Source DF SS MS F P Regression 9 48.36 53.37.82.66 Residual Error 19 1237.5 65.13 Total 28 1717.86 Source DF Seq SS Freed 1 1.49 Jazz 1 35.48 jlag1 1 353.99 City 1 1.93 citlag1 1.77 CR-V 1 5.71 crlag1 1 53.39 Civic 1.58 civlag1 1 18.1 Unusual Observations Obs Freed flag1 Fit SE Fit Residual St Resid 5 13. 4. 17.26 4.31 22.74 3.33R R denotes an observation with a large standardized residual.
89 Lanjutan Lampiran 9. Regression Analysis: City versus citlag1, Jazz,... The regression equation is City = 3.18 -.43 citlag1 +.96 Jazz -.263 jlag1 -.66 Freed -.75 flag1 +.49 CR-V +.161 crlag1 +.256 Civic -.452 civlag1 Predictor Coef SE Coef T P Constant 3.178 3.261.97.342 citlag1 -.434.312 -.14.89 Jazz.956.738.14.893 jlag1 -.2625.7428 -.35.728 Freed -.665.7983 -.83.418 flag1 -.745.7763 -.1.925 CR-V.49.1265.39.73 crlag1.168.1276 1.26.223 Civic.2565.5177.5.626 civlag1 -.4522.4359-1.4.313 S = 2.73155 R-Sq = 26.5% R-Sq(adj) =.% Analysis of Variance Source DF SS MS F P Regression 9 51.199 5.689.76.651 Residual Error 19 141.766 7.461 Total 28 192.966 Source DF Seq SS citlag1 1 1.452 Jazz 1 2.295 jlag1 1 8.45 Freed 1 1.447 flag1 1.288 CR-V 1 22.814 crlag1 1 5.981 Civic 1.444 civlag1 1 8.29 Unusual Observations Obs citlag1 City Fit SE Fit Residual St Resid 5 3. 7. 3.187 2.116 3.813 2.21R 15 3. 11. 5.222 1.86 5.778 2.89R R denotes an observation with a large standardized residual.
9 Lanjutan Lampiran 9. Regression Analysis: citlag1 versus City, Jazz,... The regression equation is citlag1 = 3.45 -.24 City -.259 Jazz +.494 jlag1 -.83 Freed -.131 flag1 -.248 CR-V +.263 crlag1 +.891 Civic -.285 civlag1 Predictor Coef SE Coef T P Constant 3.451 2.34 1.48.157 City -.237.1695 -.14.89 Jazz -.2589.517 -.5.622 jlag1.4941.539.92.371 Freed -.829.5717-1.4.176 flag1 -.1313.5731 -.23.821 CR-V -.24796.7467-3.32.4 crlag1.26292.7744 3.4.3 Civic.898.3264 2.73.13 civlag1 -.285.3247 -.88.391 S = 2.1896 R-Sq = 56.5% R-Sq(adj) = 35.8% Analysis of Variance Source DF SS MS F P Regression 9 1.414 11.157 2.74.31 Residual Error 19 77.448 4.76 Total 28 177.862 Source DF Seq SS City 1 1.338 Jazz 1.535 jlag1 1.87 Freed 1 1.476 flag1 1.97 CR-V 1 15.54 crlag1 1 4.758 Civic 1 27.724 civlag1 1 3.14 Unusual Observations Obs City citlag1 Fit SE Fit Residual St Resid 15 11. 3. 5.992 1.542-2.992-2.3R 29 1.. 4.266 1.14-4.266-2.44R R denotes an observation with a large standardized residual.
91 Lanjutan Lampiran 9. Regression Analysis: CR-V versus crlag1, Jazz,... The regression equation is CR-V = 1.1 +.622 crlag1 -.95 Jazz +.122 jlag1 -.51 Freed -.48 flag1 +.16 City - 1.48 citlag1 + 1.97 Civic - 1.14 civlag1 Predictor Coef SE Coef T P Constant 1.126 5.572 1.82.85 crlag1.6222.1928 3.23.4 Jazz -.946.1253 -.75.46 jlag1.1216.1317.92.367 Freed -.59.1463 -.35.732 flag1 -.48.1398 -.34.735 City.16.4128.39.73 citlag1-1.4812.446-3.32.4 Civic 1.9738.825 2.39.27 civlag1-1.1442.7657-1.49.152 S = 4.93444 R-Sq = 55.5% R-Sq(adj) = 34.4% Analysis of Variance Source DF SS MS F P Regression 9 577.24 64.14 2.63.36 Residual Error 19 462.62 24.35 Total 28 139.86 Source DF Seq SS crlag1 1 18.47 Jazz 1 11.75 jlag1 1 32.46 Freed 1 1.87 flag1 1 15.9 City 1 44.72 citlag1 1 18.46 Civic 1 119.5 civlag1 1 54.36 Unusual Observations Obs crlag1 CR-V Fit SE Fit Residual St Resid 14 2. 29. 18.917 2.372 1.83 2.33R R denotes an observation with a large standardized residual.
92 Lanjutan Lampiran 9. Regression Analysis: crlag1 versus CR-V, Jazz,... The regression equation is crlag1 = - 4.32 +.569 CR-V +.52 Jazz -.74 jlag1 +.164 Freed +.65 flag1 +.48 City + 1.44 citlag1-1.64 Civic + 1.47 civlag1 Predictor Coef SE Coef T P Constant -4.317 5.687 -.76.457 CR-V.569.1763 3.23.4 Jazz.521.1211.43.672 jlag1 -.738.1276 -.58.57 Freed.1641.1352 1.21.24 flag1.646.1333.48.634 City.4798.387 1.26.223 citlag1 1.4362.423 3.4.3 Civic -1.649.8175-2.1.59 civlag1 1.4678.697 2.11.49 S = 4.71878 R-Sq = 59.6% R-Sq(adj) = 4.5% Analysis of Variance Source DF SS MS F P Regression 9 624.79 69.42 3.12.18 Residual Error 19 423.7 22.27 Total 28 147.86 Source DF Seq SS CR-V 1 19.3 Jazz 1 5.18 jlag1 1 29.8 Freed 1 3.57 flag1 1 24.62 City 1 59.5 citlag1 1 223.39 Civic 1 71.85 civlag1 1 98.74 Unusual Observations Obs CR-V crlag1 Fit SE Fit Residual St Resid 5 16. 1. 17.962 3.58-7.962-2.52R 15 17. 29. 21.499 3.55 7.51 2.41R 29 13. 13. 4.577 2.668 8.423 2.16R R denotes an observation with a large standardized residual.
93 Lanjutan Lampiran 9. Regression Analysis: Civic versus civlag1, Jazz,... The regression equation is Civic =.43 +.23 civlag1 +.537 Jazz -.695 jlag1 +.28 Freed -.78 flag1 +.5 City +.316 citlag1 +.117 CR-V -.17 crlag1 Predictor Coef SE Coef T P Constant.431 1.468.29.772 civlag1.232.191 1.21.241 Jazz.5374.2845 1.89.74 jlag1 -.6945.2869-2.42.26 Freed.281.3546.59.564 flag1 -.783.3415 -.23.821 City.497.14.5.626 citlag1.3162.1158 2.73.13 CR-V.11728.493 2.39.27 crlag1 -.1662.5312-2.1.59 S = 1.2284 R-Sq = 6.3% R-Sq(adj) = 41.5% Analysis of Variance Source DF SS MS F P Regression 9 41.752 4.639 3.21.16 Residual Error 19 27.49 1.447 Total 28 69.241 Source DF Seq SS civlag1 1 3.561 Jazz 1 7.587 jlag1 1 15.944 Freed 1.78 flag1 1.588 City 1.83 citlag1 1 3.69 CR-V 1 3.753 crlag1 1 5.829 Unusual Observations Obs civlag1 Civic Fit SE Fit Residual St Resid 2 1. 6. 3.23.571 2.77 2.62R 5 2. 1. 2.623.937-1.623-2.15R 18 2. 7. 5..779 2. 2.18R R denotes an observation with a large standardized residual.
94 Lanjutan Lampiran 9. Regression Analysis: civlag1 versus Civic, Jazz,... The regression equation is civlag1 = 2.48 +.311 Civic -.52 Jazz +.44 jlag1 -.233 Freed +.28 flag1 -.119 City -.137 citlag1 -.919 CR-V +.129 crlag1 Predictor Coef SE Coef T P Constant 2.481 1.613 1.54.141 Civic.3112.257 1.21.241 Jazz -.522.342-1.53.143 jlag1.4396.368 1.19.247 Freed -.2327.4126 -.56.579 flag1.275.3947.53.65 City -.1185.1143-1.4.313 citlag1 -.1367.1558 -.88.391 CR-V -.919.6151-1.49.152 crlag1.12892.6122 2.11.49 S = 1.39848 R-Sq = 43.% R-Sq(adj) = 16.1% Analysis of Variance Source DF SS MS F P Regression 9 28.82 3.12 1.6.187 Residual Error 19 37.159 1.956 Total 28 65.241 Source DF Seq SS Civic 1 3.355 Jazz 1 4.728 jlag1 1 6.737 Freed 1.26 flag1 1 1.966 City 1 1.241 citlag1 1.979 CR-V 1.378 crlag1 1 8.673