Global Truck Industry Consolidation: Challenges and Opportunities for Asian Manufacturers Roman Mathyssek Senior Truck Analyst & Advisor
Presentation Outline Introduction Financials of Major Truck Manufacturers Modularity, the Rationale Behind Consolidation The Pros and Cons of Consolidation Types Driving Factors Behind Global Consolidation Asian Manufacturers Some Scenarios Conclusion Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 2
The Global Truck Industry The Challenges... Rising costs stringent safety & emission norms, customer expectation Cyclicality of regional demand factory utilization rates & earnings cyclicality Customers expect transportation solutions combination of truck & services Emerging markets: rapid fleet formation process and boom in HDTs and some Remedies to cope with them Share higher costs over larger volumes stabilize margins over the cycles Modular system payoff per unit rises with output volume Global presence to suspend regional cyclicality earnings smoothing Reduction of domestic market dependence Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 3
Revenue of Truck Manufacturers (Y-o-Y % Change) Revenue development largely dependent on market cycles Better pricing discipline contributes to revenue growth 2007 2006 2005-7.5% PACCAR 17.0% 23.4% Hyundai 13.2% 8.2% 10.8% -21.1% Navistar 17.1% 25.3% Isuzu 5.8% 5.1% 5.9% Fiat 2.0% 12.9% 11.4% Hino 6.3% 7.6% 5.9% -10.0% Daimler 2.0% 5.4% Tata Motors 21.4% 36.7% 40.3% Volvo 10.3% 12.0% 14.7% Beiqi Foton -17.7% 34.7% 40.5% Scania 12.9% 12.9% 19.4% -15.3% CNHTC 45.5% 80.9% -22.2% MAN 18.5% 22.9% 12.3% Dongfeng 15.6% 27.5% Source: UBS Investment Research, Goldman Sachs Investment Research (28.04.2008) Numbers are for indication purposes only Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 4
EBIT Margin of Truck Manufacturers EBIT margins not related to geographic origin of the manufacturer Factoring in vehicle complexity, labour costs, market cycles, Scania and Paccar are still Margin Champions with others on their heels 2007 2006 2005 10.8% 3.1% PACCAR 12.7% Hyundai 2.8% 12.3% 3.9% 2.4% 5.9% Navistar 5.1% Isuzu 6.4% 3.0% 5.7% 5.5% 3.4% Fiat 3.6% Hino 2.9% 1.9% 3.4% 7.5% 11.2% Daimler 5.8% Tata Motors 11.6% 3.7% 11.1% 7.8% 1.8% Volvo 7.7% 7.8% Beiqi Foton -1.3% 0.4% 14.4% 8.0% Scania 12.4% CNHTC 5.4% 10.8% 2.6% 11.2% 9.1% MAN 8.5% Dongfeng 9.1% 5.8% 7.9% Source: UBS Investment Research, Goldman Sachs Investment Research (28.04.2008) Numbers are for indication purposes only Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 5
Modularity Powering Consolidation Activity Source: SCANIA AB Modular set-up of truck allows flexible combination of components Modularity expanded across brands & companies Limited potential for sharing across weight segments MDT & HDT Key strategy to cut costs and increase variety of model range M&A/Alliances facilitate quantum leaps higher payoff from modularization Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 6
Cost Decomposition of Major Components Component App. Costs (%) Savings Potential Engine/ Electronics Transmission/ Retarder Axles/Brake System Total Powertrain Other Components (i.e. Cabins) 30% 16% 13% 59% 41% Substantial saving: legislative & market requirements higher Develop modular engine Standardization Cross brand sharing Non-captive/make-or-buy? Standardization Cross brand/function sharing Huge savings potential by modularisation and sharing of components Cabin & Exterior: Product differentiation factor, cost savings limited Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 7
Modular Components An Example Especially Daimler and Volvo benefit from their scale declining costs per unit Better adaptability to local differences Powertrain components are cost drivers high savings potential Modular components fitted to locally adapted truck Daimler s Global Engine Platform Segment Range Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 8
Consolidation: Similar Strategy Various Alternatives M&A only one type of industry consolidation M&A alternatives: Co-operation agreements with limited duration and/or scope Increasingly, alliances and JVs are favoured: Lack of ideal M&A candidate High M&A integration costs, uncertain payoff, potentially divorce costs Mostly on global level, there are still some deals to come Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 9
Pros and Cons of Possible Consolidation Types Alliance Types Criteria Kick-off Costs Integration Costs Payoff Time Ability to Trust Partner Fin. Strength Examples Joint Venture ++ + + -- -- Iveco & UralAZ Navistar & Mahindra J.V. Founding New Company o + + -- - Blue Diamond Isuzu & Bogdan Strategic Alliance + + + + o MAN & Navistar Equity Control o + + + + VW, MAN, Scania Daimler & Tata Merger / Acquisition -- -- - ++ + Volvo & Renault Tata & Daewoo Navistar & GMC Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 10
Declining Regional Differences Gradual Convergence NAFTA Europe Modular set-up inherent Low captive share EPA emission norms Captive parts increase (DTG, VOLVO, NAVISTAR, PACCAR) In-house modular design High captive share Powertrain internally sourced Euro emission norms Harmonization of global standards Broaden global potential of modular components Asia R.o.W. Captive truck design Diverse technical level Powertrain internally sourced Japanese emission norms Other countries follow Euro norms EU, U.S., Asian Trucks, Local adaptation low Legislative forces mostly follow Euro standards Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 11
OEM s Based in Saturated Markets TRIAD North America Western Europe Japan 690 460 230 453 533 569 595 400 343 340 360 350 150 100 50 91 116 111 110 0 2007 2009 2011 2013 300 2007 2009 2011 2013 0 2007 2009 2011 2013 OEM Features: R&D capability Financially potent Scale seeking OEM s Component utilization Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 12
Evolution of Consolidation in the TRIAD M&A Phase 1 (local) Phase 2 (regional) Phase 3 (continental) Phase 4 (global) Many players Small deals Good strategic fit Reg. champions Broader reach to reduce volatility M&A deal value strongly increases Fewer candidates Potential between Triad and EM OEMs A llces Emergence of concept little initial benefits Advantages increase as M&A complexity becomes obvious Modularity concept accepted as way-to-go More alliances Industrial dynamics drive the alliance formation strongly 16 12 M&A? 8 Future 4 Alliances & JVs? 0 1973 - '77 1978 - '82 1983 - '87 1988 - '92 1993 - '97 1998 - '02 2003 - '07 2008 >>> Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 13
Developments in China, India and Other Asian Countries Due to economic development, Chinese, Indian and Korean manufacturers are now faced with challenges that TRIAD manufactures have experience with Economy Infrastructure Transport Sector Truck OEMs Developing economies Blossoming industries & sectors Increasing living standards Growing import and exports Investment in road quality and quantity Construction of highways Coping with intensified freight loads More haulage capacity required Heavy duty truck boom Declining need for owner operators Creation of professional trucking companies Emphasis: heavy truck development Lack experience in heavy truck business Provide sales & support for more sophisticated trucks Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 14
OEM s Based in Emerging Markets 180 120 60 0 South America 163 161 160 165 2007 2009 2011 2013 320 240 160 80 0 Eastern Europe 261 290 271 306 2007 2009 2011 2013 Asia (excl. JPN) 1300 1238 1180 1200 1085 1112 1100 1000 2007 2009 2011 2013 OEM Features: Knowledge about growth markets & sales network Higher demand for efficient heavy trucks (more profit) Less consolidation barriers Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 15
Consolidation Implication for Asian OEMs Impact of industry consolidation outside of Asia limited, due to niche presence of foreign manufacturers in Asian market no material gain in market share Industry consolidation in Asia possibly greater impact on the global business Pro: Could combine high tech with low cost production Contra: Still lacking global reach, challenging to enter new markets Expansion of Asian manufacturers possible on a stand alone basis Combining Western and Asian players promising combinations Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 16
Japan: Isuzu & Hino, Any Consolidators? Fuso & Nissan Diesel controlled by European manufacturers Hino & Isuzu: Aim to grow organically, consolidation viewed sceptically Sales are predominantly regional Asia & Oceania, MEA Product mix geared to light and medium trucks Scale too low in HDT Japan: Market Development (>6t) Forecast 111 109 116 112 111 91 HINO ISUZU M-FUSO NISSAN-D HINO ISUZU M-FUSO NISSAN-D HINO ISUZU M-FUSO NISSAN-D HINO ISUZU M-FUSO NISSAN-D HINO ISUZU M-FUSO NISSAN-D HINO ISUZU M-FUSO NISSAN-D 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 17
Japan: Gateway to Major Asian Markets Strategic advantages of Hino and Isuzu: Strong presence in Asia & Oceania Technically sophisticated companies Hino: backed by Toyota organization Isuzu: Already has experience cooperating with GM Value of Japanese manufacturers largely is their strategic potential Access to South-East Asian markets Strong presence in regional growth markets Potentially better access to China (U-D & DongFeng JV) Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 18
Chinese OEMs: Internal & External Consolidation Boom in truck demand triggered many domestic new entrants Gradually arising cost pressures and need for scale will drive internal consolidation Chinese M&A examples: North-Benz & Chongqing; SAIC & Hongyan Low vertical integration of trucks defer imminent need for scale driven consolidation Formation of bigger local players hard times for smaller manufacturers China: Market Development (>6t) Forecast 719 720 745 783 406 436 D-F FAW CNHTC D-F FAW CNHTC D-F FAW CNHTC D-F FAW CNHTC D-F FAW CNHTC D-F FAW CNHTC 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 19
Indian OEMs: Few Large Players Only two large manufacturers in India Tata & Ashok-Leyland Both have been active on M&A front active acquirers Smaller players: Eicher, Mahindra-M, Swaraj-Mazda potential targets? Tata s global footprint expanding Un-organic growth part of corporate strategy especially Tata Cooperation partners mainly from TRIAD India: Market Development (>6t) Forecast 284 299 237 251 129 Tata A-L Eicher 178 Tata A-L Eicher Tata A-L Eicher Tata A-L Eicher Tata A-L Eicher Tata A-L Eicher 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 20
Korean OEMs: Hyundai Is in Pole Position Hyundai is a dominant player with increasing exports Hyundai s truck business too small, domestic market not big enough Grow or Go : Hyundai Trucks are too small for long term survival Advantage: Low vertical integration reduces need for large scale Korea: Market Development (>6t) Forecast 29 HYUNDAI DAEWOO VOLVO 19 HYUNDAI DAEWOO VOLVO 26 26 27 28 HYUNDAI DAEWOO VOLVO HYUNDAI DAEWOO VOLVO HYUNDAI DAEWOO VOLVO HYUNDAI DAEWOO VOLVO 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 21
Selected Asian OEMs Many Are Sub-scale 200 OEM MEDIUM (6-15t) 150 ISUZU DAIMLER Scale factor between MDT and HDT of approximately 1.5x Few Asian OEMs have sufficient scale to keep operating independently in long term 100 Consolidation between Asian OEMs could be a first step i.e. Tata & Daewoo 50 HINO DONGFENG TATA FAW Most promising combination: High-tech and market scale, low cost >>> Potential to expand into other markets/regions VOLVO EICHER HYUNDAI 0 SAIC TORCH ASHOK -LEY BEIJING FOTON CNHTC HEAVY (>15t) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 22
Asian OEMs Bringing It All Together? Score Range 0 to 3 0 = minimum 3 = maximum Isuzu Hino Tata Ashok-L Eicher Hyundai SAIC Dong-Feng Torch FAW CNHTC Foton Ownership Majority Control 2 0.5 0 1 2 1.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 Regional Strength & Strategic Value 3 3 2 1.5 1 0.5 1 2 2 2 2 2 Sub-scale 1.5 2.5 1 2 3 3 3 1 2 1 1 2 Policy towards Consolidation Financial Strength 1.5 1 2.5 2 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2 2.5 2.5 2 0.5 2 1 2 1.5 2 2 1.5 Total ( ) (Passive Consolidator) 72% 67% 33% 50% 67% 56% 44% 33% 44% 33% 33% 44% Total ( ) (Active Consolidator) 56% 67% 67% 67% 44% 61% 50% 50% 67% 50% 50% 56% Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 23
Truck Production Volume Impact of Potential New Combinations 200 MEDIUM (6-15t) OEM Potential Combination Geographic diversity essential to achieve Earnings Smoothing Hunt for scale not finished yet DAIMLER DAIMLER KAMAZ 150 100 ISUZU DONGFENG IVECO NAVISTAR FAW NAVISTAR IVECO TATA VOLVO DONGFENG 50 HINO NAVISTAR IVECO TATA FAW MAN NAVISTAR PACCAR IVECO MAN VW SCANIA VOLVO EICHER VOLVO EICHER HYUNDAI 0 VW SAIC TORCH ASHOK -LEY KAMAZ MAN BEIJING FOTON SCANIA CNHTC PACCAR MAN SCANIA HEAVY (>15t) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 24
Global Consolidation Matrix Some Combinations Ashok Leyland CNHTC Dong Feng Shaaxi /Torch Ural AZ Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 25
The Global Way Forward The OEM s in the respective regions complement themselves Need for scale important driving force Western Europe, NAFTA & Japan are saturated but OEM s can grow in EM-Asia, Eastern Europe and South America using their R&D and financial resources OEM s in emerging Asian markets: Expertise of growing market, but lack resources to satisfy demand quickly Major consolidation activity between those regions M&A likely between respective regions! Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE 26
Thank You! Roman Mathyssek Senior Truck Analyst & Advisor roman.mathyssek@globalinsight.com