Controlled Time of Arrival (CTA) Feasibility Analysis David De Smedt Eurocontrol Greg McDonald, Jesper Bronsvoort Airservices Australia ATM Seminar 2013, Chicago U.S.A.
Drivers for RTA The SESAR ATM Master Plan states that Step 1, Timebased Operations, is the building block for the implementation of the SESAR Concept and is focused on flight efficiency, predictability and the environment. NextGen Implementation Plan 2012 states that Enhancements to the navigation capabilities of aircraft, RNAV/RNP with Time of Arrival Control (TOAC) in the descent phase, will begin to increase benefits of trajectory operations through the adaptability of the aircraft trajectory to enable operational predictability and arrival accuracy of aircraft
Context of the Paper? The aircraft can accurately achieve a time Stockholm RTA trials 2006 et al. Aircraft separation infringement risk at 5% Controlled Time of Arrival Spacing Analysis 2011. But does RTA approach work for a sequence?
Standard Arrivals to Melbourne Structured Terminal Area Each of the arrival paths to Melbourne is a published procedure issued by ATC and entered to the FMS prior to Top Of Descent If the cruise sequencing has been done correctly, the aircraft flies the STAR path to the threshold uninterrupted.
Normally Ops are Multiple Runway Strong Northerly on August 8 th 2012 Demanded Single Runway Ops No. of operations per hour YMML R34-08 August 2012 45 No. of operations / hour 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 07-08-12 14:00 07-08-12 18:00 07-08-12 22:00 08-08-12 02:00 08-08-12 06:00 08-08-12 10:00 08-08-12 14:00 UTC Arrivals Departures All
Enroute Autonomously Achieve the AMAN Delay 3 20 VOZ310 27 40 0 0 VHTJJ 34 36 1 3 VHOGL 34 34 25 42 27 EA363 10 7 35 27 VHMZU 2 1 33 27 KD566 4 2 Sequence Number Landing Runway Callsign Total Delay Delay Achieved 1 3 VHZXA 16 30-2 0 VHTJF 16 28 WENDY All Runways 31 27 KD452 3 3 20 29 27 EA056 0 0 00:18:03 ARBEY All Runways
Latitude Latitude -34 HORIZONTAL VIEW VERTICAL VIEW First Hour Traffic Actual Trajectories 450 VOZ866 QFA451-35 VOZ278 VOZ868 400 JST971 JST451 350-36 VOZ1377 VOZ1331 300 QFA476 JST949-37 ARBEY LIZZI QFA457 250 VOZ870 BADGR MAS129-38 200 WENDY QFA692 WAREN QFA631 UAE407 150-39 VOZ874 QFA459 100 QFA833-40 VOZ342 QFA694 50 TGW623-41 RXA3683 0 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Longitude Distance Go (NM) HORIZONTAL VIEW VERTICAL VIEW Second Hour Traffic Actual Trajectories -34 450-35 -36-37 ARBEY LIZZI BADGR -38 WENDY WAREN -39-40 -41 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 Longitude RXA3683 JST479 TFX152 VOZ236 QFA455 QFA463 VOZ878 QFA635 JST525 SQC7297 JST712 VOZ746 QFA483 CSN343 VOZ882 RBA53 TGW631 QFA465 VOZ346 QFA768 QFA134 QFA467 QTR030 Flight Level Flight Level 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Distance to Go (NM) VOZ866 QFA451 VOZ278 VOZ868 JST971 JST451 VOZ1377 VOZ1331 QFA476 JST949 QFA457 VOZ870 MAS129 QFA692 QFA631 UAE407 VOZ874 QFA459 QFA833 VOZ342 QFA694 TGW623 RXA3683 RXA3683 JST479 TFX152 VOZ236 QFA455 QFA463 VOZ878 QFA635 JST525 SQC7297 JST712 VOZ746 QFA483 CSN343 VOZ882 RBA53 TGW631 QFA465 VOZ346 QFA768 QFA134 QFA467 QTR030
Would the RTA Solution Work? Assumptions Same traffic but different profiles Aircraft to meet actual landing times No lateral delay 200nm sequencing horizon
Hand to David to explain his magic
Research Questions 1. Does the assumed 200NM sequence horizon provide enough control authority for the FMS to use the RTA function? 2. What is the impact of airborne RTA control on legacy arrival manager systems on the ground? 3. Can the traditional first-come-first-served methodology still be applied? 4. How many conflicts do occur when CTAs are used in an arrival flow? 5. Can the application of CTA successfully resolve a sequence for an actual traffic scenario without controller intervention?
Fast-time simulation model BADA 3.7 aerodynamic data Enhanced Trajectory Predictor Modeling of wind gradient Modeling of turns Modeling of non-isa temperature profiles Altitude based wind and temp. model Modeling of Vertical Speed and/or Flight Path Angle Modeling of Altitude and Speed Constraints Using real speed envelopes from Flight Crew Operating manuals
Simulation scenarios 1. Baseline scenario recorded arrival flows into Melbourne airport within 200NM during 2 hour medium to high density operation 2. CTA scenario initial conditions from baseline scenario landing times of baseline applied as CTA no lateral patch stretching 3. CTA + modified sequence scenario: same as CTA scenario freely allocation of landing slots to arriving aircraft
Linear holding 1/3 Cruise Step descent at low speed Path stretching
Linear holding 2/3 Additional time compared to 1h of cruise at FL370 400 350 +5' 300 250 FL 200 150 +30' 1h 100 50 0 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 TAS (kts)
Linear holding 3/3 % fuel flow increase compared to minimum fuel flow for flight at green dot speed Source: Getting to grips with fuel economy, Issue 3, July 2004, Airbus
Latitude HORIZONTAL VIEW -34-35 -36-37 -38-39 -40-41 Results baseline 1 ARBEY LIZZI BADGR WENDY WAREN 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 Longitude VOZ866 QFA451 VOZ278 VOZ868 JST971 JST451 VOZ1377 VOZ1331 QFA476 JST949 QFA457 VOZ870 MAS129 QFA692 QFA631 UAE407 VOZ874 QFA459 QFA833 VOZ342 QFA694 TGW623 RXA3683
Flight Level 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Results baseline 1 VERTICAL VIEW 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Distance to Go (NM) VOZ866 QFA451 VOZ278 VOZ868 JST971 JST451 VOZ1377 VOZ1331 QFA476 JST949 QFA457 VOZ870 MAS129 QFA692 QFA631 UAE407 VOZ874 QFA459 QFA833 VOZ342 QFA694 TGW623 RXA3683
Latitude HORIZONTAL VIEW -34-35 -36-37 -38-39 -40-41 Results CTA 1 ARBEY LIZZI BADGR WENDY WAREN 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 Longitude VOZ866 QFA451 VOZ278 VOZ868 JST971 JST451 VOZ1377 VOZ1331 QFA476 JST949 QFA457 VOZ870 MAS129 QFA692 QFA631 UAE407 VOZ874 QFA459 QFA833 VOZ342 QFA694 TGW623 RXA3683
Flight Level 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Results CTA 1 VERTICAL VIEW 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Distance to Go (NM) VOZ866 QFA451 VOZ278 VOZ868 JST971 JST451 VOZ1377 VOZ1331 QFA476 JST949 QFA457 VOZ870 MAS129 QFA692 QFA631 UAE407 VOZ874 QFA459 QFA833 VOZ342 QFA694 TGW623 RXA3683
Results CTA + mod. seq. 1 HORIZONTAL VIEW Latitude -34-35 -36-37 -38-39 -40-41 ARBEY LIZZI BADGR WENDY WAREN 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 Longitude VOZ866 VOZ868 VOZ278 QFA451 JST971 VOZ1377 VOZ1331 QFA476 JST451 JST949 MAS129 VOZ870 QFA692 UAE407 QFA457 QFA631 QFA459 VOZ874 QFA833 QFA694 VOZ342 TGW623 RXA3683
Results CTA + mod. seq. 1 VERTICAL VIEW Flight Level 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Distance to Go (NM) VOZ866 VOZ868 VOZ278 QFA451 JST971 VOZ1377 VOZ1331 QFA476 JST451 JST949 MAS129 VOZ870 QFA692 UAE407 QFA457 QFA631 QFA459 VOZ874 QFA833 QFA694 VOZ342 TGW623 RXA3683
Latitude HORIZONTAL VIEW -34-35 -36-37 -38-39 -40-41 Results baseline 2 ARBEY LIZZI BADGR WENDY WAREN 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 Longitude RXA3683 JST479 TFX152 VOZ236 QFA455 QFA463 VOZ878 QFA635 JST525 SQC7297 JST712 VOZ746 QFA483 CSN343 VOZ882 RBA53 TGW631 QFA465 VOZ346 QFA768 QFA134 QFA467 QTR030
Flight Level 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Results baseline 2 VERTICAL VIEW 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Distance to Go (NM) RXA3683 JST479 TFX152 VOZ236 QFA455 QFA463 VOZ878 QFA635 JST525 SQC7297 JST712 VOZ746 QFA483 CSN343 VOZ882 RBA53 TGW631 QFA465 VOZ346 QFA768 QFA134 QFA467 QTR030
Latitude HORIZONTAL VIEW -34-35 -36-37 -38-39 -40-41 Results CTA 2 ARBEY LIZZI BADGR WENDY WAREN 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 Longitude RXA3683 JST479 TFX152 VOZ236 QFA455 QFA463 VOZ878 QFA635 JST525 SQC7297 JST712 VOZ746 QFA483 CSN343 VOZ882 RBA53 TGW631 QFA465 VOZ346 QFA768 QFA134 QFA467 QTR030
Flight Level 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Results CTA 2 VERTICAL VIEW 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Distance to Go (NM) RXA3683 JST479 TFX152 VOZ236 QFA455 QFA463 VOZ878 QFA635 JST525 SQC7297 JST712 VOZ746 QFA483 CSN343 VOZ882 RBA53 TGW631 QFA465 VOZ346 QFA768 QFA134 QFA467 QTR030
Results CTA + mod. seq. 2 HORIZONTAL VIEW Latitude -34-35 -36-37 -38-39 -40-41 ARBEY LIZZI BADGR WENDY WAREN 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 Longitude RXA3683 VOZ236 JST479 QFA455 TFX152 QFA463 VOZ878 SQC7297 QFA635 JST525 VOZ746 JST712 CSN343 RBA53 VOZ882 QFA483 TGW631 QFA465 VOZ346 QFA768 QFA134 QFA467 QTR030
Results CTA + mod. seq. 2 VERTICAL VIEW Flight Level 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Distance to Go (NM) RXA3683 VOZ236 JST479 QFA455 TFX152 QFA463 VOZ878 SQC7297 QFA635 JST525 VOZ746 JST712 CSN343 RBA53 VOZ882 QFA483 TGW631 QFA465 VOZ346 QFA768 QFA134 QFA467 QTR030
Video baseline 1
Video CTA + mod. seq. 1
Effect of ETA window Full speed window defining real earliest-latest time window or real ETA min-max Reduced speed window defining reliable ETA min-max
Quantification of results 1/2
Quantification of results 2/2 Dev = Max(0, CTA ETA max ) X = CTA ETA ETA max min ETA min CTA reliable ETA window CTA real ETA window CTA + mod. seq. real ETA window Dev 01:19:45 00:39:16 00:10:12 AVG X 1.21 0.94 0.82 STD X 0.71 0.48 0.21
Simulation conditions: Conclusions 1/3 Single RWY operation in Melbourne Real traffic sequence (45 aircraft during 2 hours) Recorded positions and times at 200NM from Melbourne during 2 hours Using CTA and a modified sequence yielded: Distance reduction of 484 NM (5%) Fuel consumption reduction of 1317 kg (3%) Fuel consumption reduction of 29 kg per aircraft
Operational implications: Conclusions 2/3 Application of CTA with modified arrival sequence produced a more efficient and orderly flow of traffic, BUT RTA based speed control is unlikely to be sufficient to solve a sequence of arriving aircraft in a high density scenario Horizon of 200NM did not provide enough speed control authority for all aircraft Preconditioning (extended horizon) ATC coordination! Alternatively combined measures (speed control and linear holding or path stretching) first-come, first-serve optimized CTA sequence Reduced ETA window aggravated situation
Conclusions 3/3 Overall: Airborne RTA is one building block in the total solution to Trajectory Based Ops Combined Air and Ground systems approach Mixed mode environment
Questions