The Shifting Ground in US Crude Markets Houston, TX April 15, 2013
Agenda Will production growth in Texas, Bakken, etc. overwhelm domestic demand? New Markets Eagle Ford, Permian to the USGC, Bakken to the US Atlantic Coast How shifting spot markets have impacted price relationships Will Cushing to US Gulf Coast pipelines relieve the WTI/Brent inversion?
US Crude Production vs. Imports million b/d 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 Source: BENTEK Energy, the analytics unit of Platts 0.00 Crude Oil Production Crude Oil Imports Source: EIA 3
Eagle Ford: Fastest Growing Crude Play in the US 4
Eagle Ford Crude Production Forecast MBPD 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200-2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Bentek Energy 5
Development of an Eagle Ford Waterborne Market: Corpus Christi Crude Loadings b/d 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 - Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Source: Port Authority of Corpus Christi
Eagle Ford s light and variable gravity can be problematic > 65, 0.1% 55-64, 2.7% Condensate, 14.5% < 32, 3.1% 33, 1.5% 34, 0.8% 35, 1.0% 36, 0.8% 37, 1.2% 38, 1.3% 39, 2.6% 40, 10.8% 50, 3.4% 41, 23.8% 45, 2.6% 44, 2.4% 43, 3.7% 42, 6.5% Source: Bentek. Data complied for September 2012
Platts Eagle Ford Marker vs. LLS @ St. James $120.00 $118.00 $116.00 $114.00 $112.00 $110.00 $108.00 $106.00 $104.00 $102.00 Eagle Ford Marker LLS @ St. James 8
Eagle Ford, LLS Yield Breakdown 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% Yield (% volume) 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% LPG Light Naphtha Heavy Naphtha Kerosene Diesel VGO Resid Source: Various Assays, Platts Eagle Ford LLS 9
Permian Basin 10
Permian Crude Production Forecast MBPD 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200-2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Bentek Energy TX NM 11
Permian Basin Completion date New/Expanded Capacity Total Capacity Destination Status Magellan Longhorn Segment Reversal BridgeTex (50/50 Oxy & Magellan) Permian Express (Sunoco Logistics) 1Q 2013 225,000 225,000 Houston Mid-2014 300,000 300,000 Houston 2H 2014 350,000 350,000 Beaumont Phase I 2H 2013 150,000 Beaumont Near Completion Developmental Stage Phase 1 Construction Phase II 2H 2014 200,000 Sunoco West Texas Gulf 1Q 2013 100,000 140,000 Beaumont Construction Total 975,000 12
Permian Basin Crude Quality West Texas Intermediate (WTI) West Texas Sour (WTS) Longhorn BridgeTex Longhorn BridgeTex API Gravity ( API) 36-42 36-42 30-35 30-40 Sulfur Content, (Weight %) 0.45 0.45 2.20 2.20 Max Reid Vapor Pressure (PSI) 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 Max Total Vapor Pressure (PSI) 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 Source: Magellan Midstream, LP 13
Bakken Shale Formation 14
Williston Crude Production Forecast MBPD 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200-2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Bentek Energy ND MT 15
Bakken Blend vs. Calendar Month Average WTI $/bbl 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00-2.00-4.00-6.00-8.00-10.00-12.00-14.00-16.00-18.00-20.00-22.00-24.00-26.00-28.00-30.00 Bakken Blend Ex-Clearbrook Bakken Blend Ex-Guernsey Source: Platts 16
North Dakota Rail Terminals 3 9 1 14 8 2 7 5 4 12 11 13 10 6 1) EOG Rail - Stanley, ND 8) Enbridge Rail - Berthold, ND 2) Rangeland COLT - Epping, ND 9) Plains - Ross, ND 3) Hess - Tioga, ND 10) Basin Transload - Zap, ND 4) Bakken Oil Express - Dickinson, ND 11) Dakota Plains - New Town, ND 5) Plains/USD - Van Hook, ND 12) Great Northern - Fryburg, ND 6) Musket Corp. - Dore, ND 13) Musket Corp. Dickinson 7) Savage Rail - Trenton, ND 14) Centennial Energy - Donnybrook 17
Williston Crude Rail Takeaway Owner/Project Capacity (Mb/d) Start Date 1) EOG Rail - Stanley, ND 65 <2010 2) Rangeland COLT - Epping, ND 80 May-12 3) Hess - Tioga, ND 25-60 Mar-12 - Dec-12 4) Bakken Oil Express - Dickinson, ND 100-200 Oct-11 - Jun-12 5) Plains/USD - Van Hook, ND 35-65 Sep-12 - Jun-13 6) Musket Corp. - Dore, ND 10-60 <2010 - Jun-11 7) Savage Rail - Trenton, ND 90 May-12 8) Enbridge Rail - Berthold, ND 10-80 Sep-12 - Feb-13 9) Plains - Ross, ND 20-65 Jan-12 - Nov-12 10) Basin Transload - Zap, ND 10-40 <2010 - Jun-12 11) Dakota Plains - New Town, ND 20-40 <2010 - Mar-11 12) Great Northern - Fryburg, ND 60 Jan-13 Other Rail 13) Musket Corp. - Dickinson 8 2010 14) Centennial Energy - Donnybrook 10 2010 Total Rail Capacity 833 18
Bakken Crude Oil Reach PADD V Current Refining Capacity: 3.032 million b/d PADD IV Current Refining Capacity: 625,000 b/d PADD III Current Refining Capacity: 8.715 million b/d PADD II Current Refining Capacity: 3.723 million b/d PADD I Current Refining Capacity: 1.293 million b/d 19
Northeast Refineries Running Bakken Crude ENBRIDGE LINE 9 REVERSAL Current capacity: 240,000 b/d LINE 9B (Proposed) 6 LINE 9A (Approved) 8 7 1 NORTHEAST REFINERIES RUNNING BAKKEN: 1) Phillips 66 / Global Partners (Bayway, NJ) (238,000 b/d) 2) Philadelphia Energy Solutions (330,000 b/d) 3) PBF Energy (Paulsboro, NJ) (180,000 b/d) 4) PBF Energy (Delaware City) (190,000 b/d) 5) Monroe Energy (Delta Airlines) (185,000 b/d) 6) Irving Oil (St. John, New Brunswick (300,000 b/d) 7) Imperial Oil (Nanticoke, Ontario) (112,000 b/d) 8) Imperial Oil (Sarnia, Ontario) (121,000 b/d) 5 4 2 3 20
USWC Refineries Running Bakken Crude ENBRIDGE NORTHERN GATEWAY PIPELINE Proposed capacity: 525,000 b/d CANADIAN OIL SANDS 1 4 US WEST COAST REFINERIES RUNNING / PLANNING TO RUN BAKKEN CRUDE: 2 3 1) Tesoro (Anacortes, WA) (120,000 b/d capacity) 2) Alon USA (Bakersfield, CA) (68,000 b/d capacity) 3) Chevron USA (Richmond, CA) (245,000 b/d capacity) 4) Phillips 66 (Ferndale, WA) (105,000 b/d capacity)
US Midcontinent to US Gulf Coast Pipelines Cushing, OK Houston St. James Proposed pipeline projects for Midcontinent to US Gulf Coast New Capacity Completion date Enterprise Seaway Pipeline 850,000 2Q 2014 TransCanada Gulf Coast Project 700,000 4Q 2013 Energy Partners Trunkline 400,000 2Q 2014 Midcontinent to USGC Capacity 1,950,000 Status Phase 1 Completed Under Construction Regulatory Review 22
Houston Crude Distribution From Cushing, OK 850,000 b/d Q2 2014 Oiltanking Partners Oil Tanking Houston Terminal (OTH)12 million barrels Keystone Pipeline (Houston Lateral) MOORE JUNCTION Seaway (400,000 b/d) Further West Seaway JONES CREEK TERMINAL (2.6 million barrels) Magellan EAST HOUSTON TERMINAL 2 Million barrels DOWNTOWN HOUSTON Seaway Galena Park 1.2 million barrels but will be expanded to 1.8 million barrels. LyondellBasell Houston Refining 268,000 b/d Valero Houston 90,000 b/d Magellan Galena Park 12.5 million barrels of products but adding crude capabilities by mid-2014. Petrobras Pasadena 100,000 b/d OTH JUNCTION Magellan Channelview 120,000 barrels, could add 1.4 million barrels Shell s Houston-to-Houma (Ho-Ho)Pipeline HFOTCO 3.2 million barrels ExxonMobil Baytown 561,000 b/d Port Arthur / Nederland Phillips 66 Freeport 247,000 b/d COMBINED CRUDE PIPELINE CAPACITY FLOWING INTO HOUSTON: 1.878 million b/d By Q2 2014 COMBINED REFINING CAPACITY: 2.369 million b/d COMBINED STORAGE CAPACITY: 29.45 million barrels SPEED JUNCTION GENOA JUNCTION WEBSTER JUNCTION Shell Deer Park 327,000 b/d Enterprise ECHO Terminal 2.25 million barrels but can be expanded to 6 million barrels. Enterprise MORGAN S POINT 2 million barrels Texas City/Galveston Refineries: Marathon (451 mbd) Marathon (80 mbd) Valero (245 mbd) TOTAL: 776,000 b/d FREEPORT JUNCTION Seaway Terminal (4.2 23 mil barrels storage)
Nederland (Beaumont/Port Arthur) Crude Distribution Energy Transfer (Sunoco Logistics) (Q1 2013) West Texas Gulf Pipeline (140,000 barrels) TransCanada (Q4 2013) Keystone XL Gulf Coast Project Pipeline (700,000 barrels) Energy Transfer (Sunoco Logistics) Permian Express Pipeline Phase I (150,000 b/d) (Q2 2013) Phase II (200,000 b/d) (Q2 2014) TOTAL: 350,000 b/d (Q2 2014) 1.19 million b/d pipeline capacity into Nederland, TX by Q2 2014 Energy Transfer Sunoco Logistics NEDERLAND Storage (22 million barrels) Port Arthur Refineries: Motiva (610 mbd) ExxonMobil (359 mbd) Valero (310 mbd) Total S.A. (174 mbd) TOTAL: 1.453 mil b/d
LLS @ St. James vs. HLS @ Empire $/bbl 6.50 5.50 4.50 3.50 2.50 LLS versus HLS 1.50 0.50-0.50-1.50-2.50-3.50-4.50-5.50 Source: Platts 25
Swelling US crude production displaces imports Valero replaced all its foreign light oil imports with domestic crude at its Gulf Coast and Memphis, Tennessee, plants during the fourth quarter of 2012. Phillips 66 is no longer taking light sweet crude imports at its three US Gulf Coast refineries, and plans to boost the volume of domestic crude it refines to more than 200,000 b/d this year. Marathon Petroleum in January disclosed plans to displacing foreign crude oil imports at its Gulf Coast refineries, ship more Bakken and Canadian crude to its Midwest plants, and outfit its Ohio and Kentucky facilities to process more Utica shale oil and condensate.
Have We Hit the Light Crude Wall in PADD III?,000 b/d TX LA MS 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200-2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (Jan) Source: EIA
Room For Additional Demand in PADD 1,000 b/d 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Source: EIA
US Gulf Coast Refinery Crude Input API Gravity API 32.00 31.50 31.00 30.50 30.00 29.50 29.00 28.50 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: EIA 29
Brent/WTI falls, but still inverted in 2016 $/bl 11.0 Brent vs. WTI Frontline Swap, April 11, 2013 10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 Source: Platts
Conclusions Benchmarks could develop for US crude in the northern US (Bakken) and southern US (WCS, WTI, LLS?). US will continue to supplant crude imports, but an inability to process growing light sweet crude will encourage the industry to seek export permits, alternatives. US Midcontinent to USGC connectivity could bring parity back, but will keep Brent/WTI relatively wide due to plentiful supply and lack of exports. Will a US crude price decline usher in production cutbacks?
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