United Nations conomic Commission for urope LITHUANIA NVIRONMNTAL PROTCTION AGNCY Project #00079039 «Management of the Neman basin with account of adaptation to climate change» Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen Basin Report on milestone 1 April 2012
Table of Contents xecutive Summary... 3 1. Meteorological and hydrological data collection... 4 1.1. Temperature and precipitation... 4 1.2. Runoff... 7 2. Statistical analysis and evaluation of changes of meteorological and hydrological characteristics... 10 2.1. Temperature and precipitation... 10 2.2. Runoff... 12 2.3. xamples of the Niemen Basin water resources current status mapping... 14 Conclusion... 16 2
xecutive Summary This report was prepared by the group of experts including Vladimir Korneev (Central Research Institute for Complex Use of Water Resources (CRICUWR), Minsk, Belarus), gidijus Rimkus (Vilnius University, Lithuania); dvinas Stonevicius (Vilnius University, Lithuania); Aliaksandr Volchak (Brest State Technical University, Brest, Belarus); Lubov Hertman, Ivan Bulak and Aliaksandr Pakhomau (CRICUWR, Minsk, Belarus). The next activities were made in the frame of the ToR (Milestone 1): Activities on preparation of current status report about water resources in the Niemen Basin includes * : Meteorological and hydrological data collection and quality analysis (data from 1961 to 2010); Statistical analysis and evaluation of changes of meteorological and hydrological characteristics; Preparation a draft version of basin-wide maps series regarding evaluation of changes in meteorological and hydrological regime in the river basin from 1961 to 2010. Participation in the Third Workshop on Water and Adaptation to Climate Change (25-26 April 2012, Geneva, Switzerland) and in the Fifth Meeting of the Task Force on Water and Climate of the Convention of the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes (27 April 2012, Geneva, Switzerland) including: Presentation of main results of research on the current status of the Niemen Basin; Participation in the Lunch time Session Information on the UNC Water Convention with short intervention of 5-7 minutes on why Belarus has ratified the Water Convention, what have been the consequences, what are the advantages of being a Party to the Convention (at the national level, in the bilateral and multilateral cooperation, etc) as well as what are the main challenges; Participation in the Niemen Pilot Project Team Workshop together with representatives from UNC and nvsec; Interview about progress of the Niemen Pilot Project and about other projects and activities in the frame of UNDP and nvsec in Belarus to the valuation Team: Dr. Stephen Webber and Ms Pamela White (Finnish Consulting Group, commissioned by MFA Finland to conduct a Mid-Term valuation of all components of the Wider urope Initiative implemented by MFA Finland, including coverage of the NVSC and FinWaterWI activities); 3
1. Meteorological and hydrological data collection The next detailed data were collected (monthly) and pre-proceeded with calculation of seasonal, annual values (data from 1961 to 2010); 1.1. Temperature and precipitation Data from 23 stations due to statistical validity of data: 8 stations in Belarus, 15 stations in Lithuania (see picture 1, tables 1,2): Additional information necessary for hydrological modeling was also collected including wind speed, humidity, sunshine duration Picture 1 Meteorological observation network in the Niemen Basin used for the analysis of current status 4
Table 1 xample of the meteorological data and theirs pre-proceeding: Temperature (Baranovichy meteorological station) Year t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6 t7 t8 t9 t10 t11 t12 tgod Winter Spring Summer Autumn 1961-4.8-1.4 2.7 7.5 11.7 17.5 17.1 16.3 13.2 7.9 1.6-5.5 7.0-5.5 7.3 17.0 7.6 1962-2.3-5.2-4.7 8.8 11.5 13.8 15.6 16.0 11.6 7.0 3.0-6.0 5.8-4.3 5.2 15.1 7.2 1963-14.1-9.6-5.8 5.6 16.3 15.3 19.5 19.4 14.0 6.9 3.3-7.0 5.3-9.9 5.4 18.1 8.1 1964-6.1-9.0-5.6 5.2 11.2 19.9 18.8 14.9 11.8 6.8 1.1-2.0 5.6-7.4 3.6 17.9 6.6 1965-5.0-8.2-2.4 4.7 9.1 15.1 15.8 15.3 13.9 5.7-3.2-1.9 4.9-5.1 3.8 15.4 5.5 1966-6.8-4.8 0.4 8.1 14.9 17.0 18.2 16.2 10.9 9.1 0.7-4.2 6.6-4.5 7.8 17.1 6.9 1967-10.2-4.7 1.5 7.0 14.7 16.3 18.2 16.9 15.0 9.7 3.7-4.8 6.9-6.4 7.7 17.1 9.5 1968-10.0-4.8 0.1 7.5 11.9 18.0 15.8 16.9 12.2 5.6 0.4-4.6 5.8-6.5 6.5 16.9 6.1 1969-11.3-8.4-5.1 5.1 12.9 15.7 17.6 16.0 11.9 6.2 4.0-8.7 4.7-8.1 4.3 16.4 7.4 1970-8.4-9.3-1.3 6.3 12.8 16.2 17.5 16.4 11.6 5.6 2.1-2.7 5.6-8.8 5.9 16.7 6.4 1971-5.2-3.2-3.3 5.0 14.0 15.5 17.4 18.2 10.5 6.5 0.5 0.8 6.4-3.7 5.2 17.0 5.8 1972-10.9-3.3 0.4 7.1 13.9 17.4 20.1 17.7 11.8 4.8 2.2-1.0 6.7-4.5 7.1 18.4 6.3 1973-5.7-1.1 0.4 6.2 12.0 16.0 18.0 16.1 10.2 4.7-0.4-3.5 6.1-2.6 6.2 16.7 4.8 1974-4.6-0.6 1.8 5.4 10.3 14.1 15.4 16.9 13.4 7.0 1.7 0.6 6.8-2.9 5.8 15.5 7.4 1975 0.2-1.8 2.8 6.8 15.9 16.2 18.2 17.8 14.8 6.6-0.4-1.0 8.0-0.3 8.5 17.4 7.0 1976-7.0-8.4-3.3 6.6 11.0 13.4 17.2 14.9 11.8 3.1 2.5-2.7 4.9-5.5 4.8 15.2 5.8 1977-5.9-3.3 1.4 5.6 13.3 16.4 15.5 15.1 9.7 6.5 2.3-4.5 6.0-4.0 6.8 15.7 6.2 1978-5.6-7.9 1.3 6.0 10.6 14.2 15.7 15.7 9.6 6.6 4.5-8.7 5.2-6.0 6.0 15.2 6.9 1979-7.8-8.3-0.3 5.2 14.6 19.0 14.0 17.1 12.5 5.0 0.6-1.2 5.9-8.3 6.5 16.7 6.0 1980-8.5-5.7-4.9 5.5 8.3 15.8 16.6 15.1 12.0 7.3-0.3-2.5 4.9-5.1 3.0 15.8 6.3 1981-6.4-3.7 0.6 4.1 14.8 17.4 18.4 16.1 12.9 8.2 1.5-4.1 6.7-4.2 6.5 17.3 7.5 1982-5.5-5.4 1.3 5.3 12.8 14.2 17.6 17.4 13.8 7.2 2.9 0.4 6.8-5.0 6.5 16.4 8.0 1983 0.4-4.4 1.0 9.2 16.1 15.5 17.1 17.6 14.5 7.4 0.7-2.7 7.7-1.2 8.8 16.7 7.5 1984-2.3-5.6-0.8 8.5 14.2 13.8 15.4 17.0 12.6 8.8 0.3-3.3 6.6-3.5 7.3 15.4 7.2 1985-11.8-13.6-1.9 6.9 14.1 14.7 15.9 18.5 10.4 7.6-0.8-2.3 4.8-9.6 6.4 16.4 5.7 1986-3.5-12.6-0.1 8.2 13.9 16.7 17.8 17.1 9.3 6.4 2.9-3.6 6.0-6.1 7.3 17.2 6.2 1987-15.9-3.9-5.8 4.3 12.3 15.9 16.7 14.4 10.8 6.3 1.8-2.6 4.5-7.8 3.6 15.7 6.3 1988-4.1-3.0-0.7 5.7 14.9 16.0 19.1 16.4 12.5 5.6-2.2-3.5 6.4-3.2 6.6 17.2 5.3 1989 0.7 1.8 3.2 8.8 13.5 15.9 17.4 16.2 13.1 7.6-0.6-1.5 8.0-0.3 8.5 16.5 6.7 1990 0.0 3.0 4.7 8.2 12.2 15.7 15.6 16.1 9.8 7.5 3.3-1.9 7.9 0.5 8.4 15.8 6.9 1991-2.2-6.0 1.4 6.8 10.9 15.5 17.9 17.6 13.2 7.0 2.5-2.9 6.8-3.4 6.4 17.0 7.6 1992-2.3-1.8 2.7 5.2 12.4 17.3 19.3 20.4 12.1 4.1 0.9-1.9 7.4-2.3 6.8 19.0 5.7 1993-1.9-2.6-0.8 7.4 15.9 14.4 15.8 15.2 9.8 6.6-4.9-0.2 6.2-2.1 7.5 15.1 3.8 1994 0.1-6.9 0.5 8.7 11.8 14.3 20.3 18.0 14.7 5.9 1.0-3.2 7.1-2.3 7.0 17.5 7.2 1995-3.9 1.1 2.1 7.6 12.7 18.2 18.6 17.8 12.5 8.1-1.7-7.4 7.1-2.0 7.5 18.2 6.3 1996-9.6-8.1-4.4 7.4 15.6 16.0 16.2 18.1 9.7 8.3 5.0-7.0 5.6-8.4 6.2 16.8 7.7 1997-5.9-0.5 0.8 4.3 12.6 16.4 17.7 18.4 11.6 5.5 1.8-4.3 6.5-4.5 5.9 17.5 6.3 1998-0.9 0.7 0.0 8.7 13.6 17.6 17.0 15.0 12.1 6.4-4.3-4.9 6.8-1.5 7.4 16.5 4.7 1999-2.4-3.7 1.8 9.9 10.7 20.4 20.7 17.4 14.4 7.1-0.4-1.3 7.9-3.7 7.5 19.5 7.0 2000-3.9-0.1 1.8 11.5 14.2 16.3 16.8 17.3 10.4 9.4 4.7-1.5 8.1-1.8 9.2 16.8 8.2 2001-2.0-3.2 0.8 9.4 13.1 15.1 21.5 18.3 12.1 8.7 1.3-7.7 7.3-2.2 7.8 18.3 7.4 5
Year t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6 t7 t8 t9 t10 t11 t12 tgod Winter Spring Summer Autumn 2002-2.6 2.1 3.3 8.4 15.7 17.2 21.4 19.6 12.4 5.3 2.3-9.2 8.0-2.7 9.1 19.4 6.7 2003-5.4-7.0 0.2 5.6 15.5 15.8 19.5 17.2 12.6 4.9 3.4-0.6 6.8-7.2 7.1 17.5 7.0 2004-6.9-3.4 1.7 7.5 11.4 15.2 17.6 18.6 12.6 8.3 1.6 0.2 7.0-3.6 6.9 17.1 7.5 2005-0.9-6.1-2.9 8.2 12.8 15.6 19.3 17.0 14.3 7.9 1.5-2.3 7.0-2.3 6.0 17.3 7.9 2006-8.3-7.5-3.1 7.9 12.9 16.6 20.6 17.8 14.2 9.0 3.5 2.6 7.2-6.0 5.9 18.3 8.9 2007 1.1-6.5 5.5 7.1 14.8 18.4 18.3 19.3 13.1 7.4-0.1-1.0 8.1-0.9 9.1 18.7 6.8 2008-2.0 1.0 2.5 9.1 12.1 16.6 18.0 18.4 12.1 8.8 2.7-0.3 8.3-0.7 7.9 17.7 7.9 2009-4.3-2.6 0.9 9.3 12.7 16.0 18.9 17.0 14.1 5.9 3.5-3.3 7.3-2.4 7.6 17.3 7.8 2010-10.7-4.5 1.5 8.6 14.7 18.1 22.1 20.6 12.1 4.5 4.7-7.0 7.1-6.2 8.3 20.3 7.1 Table 2 xample of the meteorological data and theirs pre-proceeding: Precipitation (Baranovichy meteorological station) Psum/ Year P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 P8 P9 P10 P11 P12 Winter Spring Summer year Autumn 1961 18 27 59 38 92 48 32 30 27 1 35 38 445 38 189 110 63 1962 38 31 74 66 88 105 66 93 60 5 58 13 697 107 228 264 123 1963 7 40 25 114 73 82 25 117 34 82 74 13 686 60 212 224 190 1964 11 41 33 33 47 37 33 64 74 34 65 37 509 65 113 134 173 1965 49 19 26 15 60 94 49 37 47 21 47 32 496 105 101 180 115 1966 47 53 60 58 38 31 90 34 29 48 65 42 595 132 156 155 142 1967 26 27 47 47 92 39 59 82 10 61 92 51 633 95 186 180 163 1968 31 14 26 47 97 123 51 82 39 79 33 26 648 96 170 256 151 1969 9 17 9 64 96 41 14 82 34 65 73 26 530 52 169 137 172 1970 65 29 38 46 73 92 66 79 67 70 67 47 739 120 157 237 204 1971 16 24 26 35 29 112 14 29 54 69 40 30 478 87 90 155 163 1972 22 6 40 40 40 77 78 51 90 47 74 14 579 58 120 206 211 1973 14 57 18 36 63 105 190 8 48 63 54 37 693 85 117 303 165 1974 12 30 4 12 45 71 180 48 96 122 41 63 724 79 61 299 259 1975 28 13 16 85 29 67 71 36 29 40 13 29 456 104 130 174 82 1976 51 6 34 25 84 54 44 43 22 32 19 56 470 86 143 141 73 1977 10 57 23 85 60 70 167 116 66 15 65 37 771 123 168 353 146 1978 36 33 23 41 43 73 73 114 117 50 32 52 687 106 107 260 199 1979 86 12 49 26 36 63 65 106 41 5 40 46 575 150 111 234 86 1980 30 26 42 42 20 70 205 88 72 97 47 47 786 102 104 363 216 1981 34 25 40 12 37 84 56 70 23 70 62 82 595 106 89 210 155 1982 40 7 18 28 115 125 49 67 21 40 21 77 608 129 161 241 82 1983 53 31 76 32 40 108 71 20 49 26 21 32 559 161 148 199 96 1984 48 19 23 16 57 103 65 14 80 25 26 37 513 99 96 182 131 1985 33 21 47 47 84 138 91 33 67 44 27 58 690 91 178 262 138 1986 65 19 32 33 23 59 66 210 64 18 34 27 650 142 88 335 116 1987 35 18 41 20 59 96 89 60 36 33 60 52 599 80 120 245 129 1988 31 41 55 32 39 145 72 75 58 8 68 58 682 124 126 292 134 1989 24 25 30 25 28 80 90 120 28 65 28 58 601 107 83 290 121 1990 37 24 33 27 49 39 132 98 176 30 63 27 735 119 109 269 269 1991 24 32 25 35 53 114 68 31 36 24 46 26 514 83 113 213 106 6
Year P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 P8 P9 P10 P11 P12 Psum/ year Winter Spring Summer Autumn 1992 26 40 25 44 55 20 16 27 155 71 59 21 559 92 124 63 285 1993 50 16 44 27 34 93 158 44 92 28 18 83 687 87 105 295 138 1994 66 21 79 53 63 45 2 51 50 73 41 56 600 170 195 98 164 1995 30 66 49 35 34 74 30 63 61 5 42 20 509 152 118 167 108 1996 42 54 20 41 172 39 141 21 76 33 33 65 737 116 233 201 142 1997 11 24 30 41 63 93 95 21 42 51 58 64 593 100 134 209 151 1998 29 22 45 46 61 118 97 60 97 49 46 54 724 115 152 275 192 1999 15 41 50 34 85 120 56 26 41 24 36 49 577 110 169 202 101 2000 38 39 34 48 39 71 113 27 48 3 48 52 560 126 121 211 99 2001 58 15 22 24 48 104 247 58 83 29 44 27 758 125 93 409 156 2002 43 54 28 41 29 57 75 42 21 141 27 25 583 124 99 174 188 2003 31 34 26 36 49 46 165 33 11 44 17 47 538 89 111 244 72 2004 49 68 43 34 41 124 87 72 18 71 54 40 701 164 119 283 143 2005 42 39 47 11 137 31 52 130 7 15 44 77 632 121 194 213 67 2006 8 31 30 32 83 51 60 113 58 40 28 26 559 116 146 224 125 2007 90 42 32 24 59 59 211 49 18 39 34 11 669 158 116 320 91 2008 56 38 81 69 66 34 136 58 94 66 51 27 776 104 217 227 211 2009 39 29 50 32 64 166 166 52 49 85 51 65 847 95 146 385 184 2010 29 37 26 32 143 89 76 95 73 21 85 44 750 130 201 261 178 1.2. Runoff Data from 25 stations due to statistical validity of data: 12 stations in Belarus, 13 stations in Lithuania (see picture 2, table 3): Picture 2 Hydrological observation network in the Niemen Basin and sub basins of the rivers used for the analysis of current status 7
Table 3 xample of the hydrological data and theirs pre-proceeding: water discharges (Grodno hydrological station) Year Average annual water discharge Water discharge Q(m 3 /s) Minimum water discharge summerautumn (VI-XI Minimum water discharge winter (XII,I,II Maximum water discharges spring-flood Average annual water discharge Discharge Per Unit Catchment Area, l/s/km 2 Minimum Minimum water discharge water discharge summerautumn (VI-XI winter (XII,I,II Maximum water discharges springflood 1961 173.00 88.40 99.90 436.00 5.149 2.631 2.973 12.976 1962 205.00 104.00 30.70 1160.00 6.101 3.095 0.914 34.524 1963 152.00 64.20 46.70 874.00 4.524 1.911 1.390 26.012 1964 164.00 62.20 65.00 1090.00 4.881 1.851 1.935 32.440 1965 173.00 97.00 62.20 809.00 5.149 2.887 1.851 24.077 1966 183.00 89.50 17.40 937.00 5.446 2.664 0.518 27.887 1967 180.00 100.00 60.40 687.00 5.357 2.976 1.798 20.446 1968 185.00 86.60 66.60 1040.00 5.506 2.577 1.982 30.952 1969 146.00 72.10 40.00 578.00 4.345 2.146 1.190 17.202 1970 242.00 119.00 31.00 1420.00 7.202 3.542 0.923 42.262 1971 182.00 69.40 56.70 687.00 5.417 2.065 1.688 20.446 1972 155.00 95.30 28.70 347.00 4.613 2.836 0.854 10.327 1973 171.00 94.00 58.50 434.00 5.089 2.798 1.741 12.917 1974 214.00 106.00 60.30 323.00 6.369 3.155 1.795 9.613 1975 192.00 95.30 147.00 264.00 5.714 2.836 4.375 7.857 1976 152.00 80.60 37.90 658.00 4.524 2.399 1.128 19.583 1977 203.00 106.00 49.30 448.00 6.042 3.155 1.467 13.333 1978 217.00 104.00 61.10 613.00 6.458 3.095 1.818 18.244 1979 242.00 96.50 75.90 1850.00 7.202 2.872 2.259 55.060 1980 239.00 130.00 63.20 727.00 7.113 3.869 1.881 21.637 1981 205.00 94.40 119.00 554.00 6.101 2.810 3.542 16.488 1982 211.00 99.80 43.00 533.00 6.280 2.970 1.280 15.863 1983 190.00 83.00 98.10 519.00 5.655 2.470 2.920 15.446 1984 158.00 92.50 64.30 358.00 4.702 2.753 1.914 10.655 1985 212.00 113.00 45.10 689.00 6.310 3.363 1.342 20.506 1986 192.00 89.60 82.20 697.00 5.714 2.667 2.446 20.744 1987 180.00 109.00 43.60 703.00 5.357 3.244 1.298 20.923 1988 203.00 118.00 57.20 939.00 6.042 3.512 1.702 27.946 1989 185.00 105.00 59.10 262.00 5.506 3.125 1.759 7.798 1990 205.00 80.70 45.50 400.00 6.101 2.402 1.354 11.905 1991 173.00 87.70 79.60 445.00 5.149 2.610 2.369 13.244 1992 154.00 57.30 51.50 320.00 4.583 1.705 1.533 9.524 1993 191.00 91.80 89.10 456.00 5.685 2.732 2.652 13.571 1994 252.00 80.10 85.10 845.00 7.500 2.384 2.533 25.149 1995 184.00 75.70 76.70 451.00 5.476 2.253 2.283 13.423 1996 179.00 77.90 69.40 840.00 5.327 2.318 2.065 25.000 8
Year Average annual water discharge Water discharge Q(m 3 /s) Minimum water discharge summerautumn (VI-XI Minimum water discharge winter (XII,I,II Maximum water discharges spring-flood Average annual water discharge Discharge Per Unit Catchment Area, l/s/km 2 Minimum Minimum water discharge water discharge summerautumn (VI-XI winter (XII,I,II Maximum water discharges springflood 1997 146.00 77.90 71.30 308.00 4.345 2.318 2.122 9.167 1998 205.00 126.00 60.30 350.00 6.101 3.750 1.795 10.417 1999 213.00 85.10 97.00 692.00 6.339 2.533 2.887 20.595 2000 164.00 94.20 51.50 359.00 4.881 2.804 1.533 10.685 2001 146.00 87.60 111.00 288.00 4.345 2.607 3.304 8.571 2002 161.00 55.00 56.80 475.00 4.792 1.637 1.690 14.137 2003 152.00 80.90 65.70 424.00 4.524 2.408 1.955 12.619 2004 192.00 105.00 81.30 192.00 5.714 3.125 2.420 5.714 2005 195.00 88.20 77.80 455.00 5.804 2.625 2.315 13.542 2006 187.00 76.90 96.40 631.00 5.565 2.289 2.869 18.780 2007 177.00 87.90 135.00 517.00 5.268 2.616 4.018 15.387 2008 169.00 84.60 47.10 312.00 5.030 2.518 1.402 9.286 2009 179.00 94.50 70.40 338.00 5.327 2.813 2.095 10.060 Average (1980-2009) 186.6 91.0 73.1 502.6 5.6 2.7 2.2 15.0 1961-1984 188.9 92.9 61.8 722.8 5.6 2.8 1.8 21.5 1985-2009 183.8 89.2 72.2 495.5 5.5 2.7 2.1 14.7 Difference, % -2.69-4.01 16.90-31.44-2.69-4.01 16.90-31.44 Probability of Student distribution 0.000 0.508 0.430 0.173 0.013 0.508 0.430 0.173 9
2. Statistical analysis and evaluation of changes of meteorological and hydrological characteristics Statistical analysis and evaluation of changes of meteorological and hydrological characteristics was made with the purposes of changes of meteorological and hydrological characteristics definition. Aggregated results of statistical analysis are presented in tables 4-6 and in pictures 3-5. 2.1. Temperature and precipitation Table 4 - Aggregated results of statistical analysis of changes of meteorological characteristics in the Niemen Basin Name of station Temperature Position # in the Average temperature (1981-2010) national Latitude Longitude Register Winter Spring Summetumn Au- Annual 10 Temperature change ( C)(1986-2010 minus 1961-1986) Winter Spring Summer Autumn Annual Baranovichi 53 07' 54'' 25 58' 16'' 193-3.6 7.2 17.3 6.9 7.0 1.81 1.15 0.99 0.05 1.00 Grodno 53 36' 13'' 24 02' 39'' 148-2.9 7.1 17.1 7.1 7.1 1.53 0.87 0.63-0.21 0.70 Volkovyssk 53 08' 05'' 24 27' 34'' 193-3.0 7.3 17.3 7.2 7.2 1.59 0.89 0.79 0.01 0.82 Lida 53 54' 25'' 25 19' 24'' 157-3.3 7.1 17.2 6.9 7.0 1.94 1.16 0.93 0.07 1.02 Novogrudok 53 35' 48'' 25 51' 04'' 280-4.1 6.5 16.7 6.3 6.4 1.71 1.19 0.88 0.01 0.95 Vileika 54 30' 25'' 26 59' 23'' 165-4.1 6.5 17.1 6.4 6.5 1.87 0.88 0.85-0.01 0.90 Volozhin 54 05' 42'' 26 30' 56'' 228-4.1 6.7 17.1 6.4 6.5 1.83 1.19 1.01 0.12 1.04 Naroch 54 53' 52'' 26 40' 56'' 171-4.2 6.3 16.4 6.3 6.2 1.91 1.73 0.56 0.1 1.07 Kaunas 54 53' 23 50' 76-2.7 7.1 16.8 6.9 7.0 1.60 0.67 0.87 0.18 0.83 Kybartai 54 38' 22 47' 58-2.1 7.4 16.9 7.5 7.4 1.69 0.77 1.04 0.38 0.97 Laukuva 55 37' 22 14' 165-3.0 6.0 15.7 6.3 6.3 1.69 0.68 0.70 0.23 0.83 Lazdijai 54 14' 23 31' 133-2.7 7.1 16.7 6.9 7.0 1.74 0.70 0.93 0.22 0.90 Panevėžys 55 45' 24 23' 57-2.9 6.9 16.8 6.7 6.9 1.81 0.83 1.12 0.33 1.02 Raseiniai 55 23' 23 07' 111-3.0 6.4 16.2 6.5 6.5 1.67 0.60 0.78 0.18 0.81 Šilutė 55 21' 21 28' 4-1.6 7.0 16.6 7.6 7.4 1.71 0.75 0.92 0.24 0.90 Ukmergė 55 15' 24 46' 72-3.0 7.0 16.8 6.9 6.9 1.77 0.75 1.07 0.35 0.98 Utena 55 32' 25 36' 105-3.4 6.6 16.5 6.4 6.5 1.96 0.80 0.89 0.32 0.99 Varėna 54 15' 24 33' 109-3.1 6.8 16.7 6.6 6.8 1.74 0.63 0.89 0.16 0.85 Vilnius 54 38' 25 06' 162-3.7 6.7 16.6 6.2 6.5 1.60 0.74 0.99 0.23 0.89 ADDITIONAL STATIONS Biržai 56 12' 24 46' 60-3.2 6.6 16.7 6.6 6.6 1.93 0.87 1.07 0.42 1.07 Klaipėda 55 44' 21 04' 6-0.7 6.5 16.5 8.6 7.7 1.61 0.86 0.99 0.22 0.92 Šiauliai 55 56' 23 19' 106-2.8 6.5 16.6 6.7 6.8 1.74 0.79 1.01 0.21 0.94 Telšiai 55 58' 22 15' 153-2.5 6.3 16.2 6.7 6.7 1.77 0.95 1.10 0.35 1.04 PRCIPITATION Name of station Latitude Longitude # in the national Register Average precipitation sum (1981-2010) Winter Spring Summer Autumn Annual Precipitation change (%)(1986-2010/1961-1986) Winter Spring Summer Autumn Baranovichi 53 07' 54'' 25 58' 16'' 193 117.7 136.7 239.9 142.4 636.8 17-2 12-1 6 Grodno 53 36' 13'' 24 02' 39'' 148 104.7 121.1 202.5 129.8 558.1-6 -14 4-9 -5 Volkovyssk 53 08' 05'' 24 27' 34'' 193 127.7 147.2 221.6 150.4 647.0 22 4 9 7 10 Lida 53 54' 25'' 25 19' 24'' 157 136.5 145.2 232.9 160.0 674.7 20-2 9 3 7 Novogrudok 53 35' 48'' 25 51' 04'' 280 145.7 157.2 258.3 178.6 739.8 4-8 8-2 1 Vileika 54 30' 25'' 26 59' 23'' 165 118.4 137.4 233.9 149.1 638.9 6-2 5-5 1 Annual
Volozhin 54 05' 42'' 26 30' 56'' 228 129.9 141.2 240.3 159.8 671.3 13-4 7-2 3 Naroch 54 53' 52'' 26 40' 56'' 171 155.5 154.3 237.8 171.7 719.2 18-2 9-5 5 Kaunas 54 53' 23 50' 76 123.3 129.2 227.7 156.1 636.3 18-2 13-4 6 Kybartai 54 38' 22 47' 58 115.5 115.0 226.7 143.9 601.0 26-3 7-11 3 Laukuva 55 37' 22 14' 165 185.5 134.5 244.6 243.2 807.8 10 3 4-7 2 Lazdijai 54 14' 23 31' 133 114.7 130.8 228.8 149.9 624.2 34 17 14 8 16 Panevėžys 55 45' 24 23' 57 114.0 126.0 212.8 158.3 611.1 21-2 7 5 7 Raseiniai 55 23' 23 07' 111 145.1 130.3 233.6 188.6 697.6 20 7 4 1 7 Šilutė 55 21' 21 28' 4 163.4 120.4 250.3 256.7 790.8 19 2 3-1 4 Ukmergė 55 15' 24 46' 72 128.1 135.2 222.8 170.6 656.7 42 15 20 10 20 Utena 55 32' 25 36' 105 133.9 137.6 235.7 174.4 681.6 22-4 26 2 12 Varėna 54 15' 24 33' 109 142.8 149.0 241.3 166.6 699.7 33 0 12 2 11 Vilnius 54 38' 25 06' 162 136.8 143.2 236.9 166.2 683.0 26-5 13-3 7 ADDITIONAL STATIONS Biržai 56 12' 24 46' 60 135.2 130.4 218.6 173.6 657.7 52 5 16 4 16 Klaipėda 55 44' 21 04' 6 174.2 114.2 209.9 260.8 759.0 26 5 4 5 9 Šiauliai 55 56' 23 19' 106 114.4 113.7 214.5 166.7 609.3 21 5 8-1 7 Telšiai 55 58' 22 15' 153 189.4 135.6 240.2 238.5 803.7 33 4 0-4 6 3.0 2.5 Assessment of the change of temperature ( 0 C) in the Niemen Basin (1986-2010) - (1961-1985): on average +0.93 0 C 2.4 Months (difference, 0 C) Months (difference, %) 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0-2.0-4.0 January February 2.0 March 1.3 April 1.2 May 0.2 0.2 June July Picture 3 1.4 August 0.9 September 0.2 October 0.1 November Assessment of the change of precipitation (%) in the Niemen Basin (1986-2010) - (1961-1985): on average +6.98% 8.2 8.9 5.3 0.0 2.4 8.0 6.7 3.5 0.9 0.0 December 0.5-0.4-6.0-8.0 January February March April -6.5 May June July Picture 4 August September October November -7.0 December 11
2.2. Runoff Table 5 - Aggregated results of statistical analysis of changes of hydrological characteristics in the Niemen Basin Discharge per Unit averages (1981-2010) (1985-2009) (1961-1984) Differences (%) Name of the water body Name of station Latitude Longitude Catchment area, km 2 Average annual water discharge Minimum water discharge summer-autumn (VI-XI Minimum water discharge winter (XII,I,II Maximum water discharges spring-flood Average annual water discharge Minimum water discharge summer-autumn (VI-XI Minimum water discharge winter (XII,I,II Maximum water discharges spring-flood Neman Stolbtsy 26 42' 56" 53 28' 43" 3070 5.7 2.5 2.8 25.8-11.76-9.56 3.72-53.07 Neman Mosty 24 32' 10" 53 24' 11" 25600 5.74 2.86 2.32 15.92-3.49-2.16 2.19-35.52 Neman Grodno 23 48' 23" 53 40' 43" 33600 5.55 2.71 2.18 14.96-2.69-4.01 16.90-31.44 Isloch Borovikovshina 26 44' 16" 53 57' 26" 624 7.02 3.56 3.67 64.63 4.40 26.33 40.90-52.42 Gavya Lubiniata 25 38' 40" 53 59' 26" 920 7.87 4.03 3.89 31.65 4.22-8.62-3.73-37.36 Schara Slonim 25 19' 37" 53 04' 56" 4860 4.85 2.04 2.16 11.99-8.75-3.74-4.58-39.81 Svisloch Sukhaya 24 01' 33" 53 28' 04" 1720 5.31 2.19 2.72 26.79-0.56 20.02 47.61-42.48 Dolina Vilija Steshytsy 27 23' 39" 54 33' 50" 1200 6.91 3.20 3.85 34.67 13.09 1.82 27.42-33.46 Vilija Mikhalishki 26 09' 59" 54 48' 50" 10300 5.75 3.06 2.93 17.65-6.01-6.76-0.22-38.63 Naroch Naroch 26 43' 33" 54 33' 24" 1480 7.02 2.76 3.71 29.96 4.10-2.05 36.57-36.50 Oshmyanka Bolshiye Yatsiny 26 12' 57" 54 44' 27" 1480 7.18 3.58 3.64 35.85 10.87 32.90 38.56-25.31 Dubysa Lyduvenai 23 5' 14.1" 55 30' 23.1" 1134 7.90 1.58 3.70 44.34 8.06 8.15 48.99-28.68 Jūra Taurage 22 16' 45" 55 15' 4.0" 1664 13.73 1.92 3.90 112.25 3.61 35.76 17.54-5.24 Merkys Puvociai 24 18' 12" 54 7' 4.3" 4300 7.63 4.82 4.96 18.13 6.37 3.66 10.83-20.19 Šešupė K. Naujamestis 22 51' 49.2" 54 46' 37.5" 3179 5.49 0.95 2.48 30.19 13.19 24.78 15.33-3.78 Minija Kartena 21 28' 48.2" 55 54' 59.2" 1230 14.44 1.86 4.89 95.56 9.71 7.20 12.28 3.17 Šventoji Anykščiai 25 5' 52.7" 55 31' 29.9" 3600 7.18 2.54 3.91 27.59 2.72 13.00 19.36-16.45 Šventoji Ukmerge 24 46' 8.0" 55 14' 48.0" 5440 7.15 2.30 3.77 29.72 13.52 29.65 30.55-14.07 Žeimena Pabrade 25 46' 21.0" 54 59' 1.7" 2580 8.07 4.32 5.81 15.18 6.51 2.88 7.17-10.37 Nemunas Druskininkai 23 58' 48.7" 54 1' 9.4" 37100 5.50 2.86 2.60 14.26-2.68-4.17 9.75-29.61 Nemunas Nemajūnai 24 4' 26.3" 54 33' 14.8" 42800 5.84 3.14 2.85 14.55-2.85-3.87 17.71-27.98 Nemunas Smalininkai 22 35' 15.6" 55 4' 22.3" 81200 6.26 3.05 3.27 18.96 1.18 8.22 15.69-20.16 Neris Vilnius 25 16' 36.5" 54 41' 31.1" 15200 6.47 3.72 3.57 16.48-2.08 0.27 9.12-34.62 Neris Jonava 24 16' 54.9" 55 4' 10.2" 24600 6.75 3.43 3.57 20.81 4.34 2.75 0.36-23.20 Average 7.14 2.87 3.47 31.99 2.71 7.18 17.50-27.38 12
Table 6- Aggregated results of statistical analysis of changes of hydrological characteristics in the Niemen Basin (monthly change) Name of the water body Name of station Latitude Longitude Catchment area, km 2 January February March April (1985-2009) - (1961-1984) Months (difference (%)) Neman Stolbtsy 26 42' 56" 53 28' 43" 6 19.37 34.17-8.71-29.65-18.19-15.00-4.29-7.24 1.29-5.95 Neman Neman Isloch Gavya Schara Svisloch Vilija Vilija Vilija Naroch Oshmya nka Dubysa Jūra Merkys Šešupė Minija Mosty Grodno Slonim Vileika Naroch Bolshiye Yatsiny Borovikovshina Lubiniata Sukhaya Dolina Steshytsy Mikhalishki Lyduvenai Taurage Puvociai Kartena Žeimena Pabrade Neris Neris K. Naujamestis Šventoji Anykščiai Šventoji Ukmerge Nemunas Nemunas Nemunas Druskininkai Nemajūnai Smalininkai Vilnius Jonava 24 32' 10" 23 48' 23" 26 44' 16" 25 38' 40" 25 19' 37" 24 01' 33" 27 23' 39" 26 55' 26" 26 09' 59" 26 43' 33" 26 12' 57" 23 5' 14.1" 22 16' 45.0" 24 18' 12.0" 22 51' 49.2" 21 28' 48.2" 25 5' 52.7" 24 46' 8.0" 25 46' 21.0" 23 58' 48.7" 24 4' 26.3" 22 35' 15.6" 25 16' 36.5" 24 16' 54.9" May June July August September October November - 15.71 53 24' 11" 25600 23.99 34.95 2.03-27.48-10.66-4.79 1.66-1.76 3.86-2.33-8.59 2.10 53 40' 43" 33600 25.75 29.13 1.96-23.73-11.32-4.82 1.48-2.56 4.97-2.20-8.35 2.40 53 57' 26" 624 54.16 40.16-2.69-24.04 6.85-2.53 1.04-5.72 11.04 12.32 8.60 19.08 53 59' 26" 920 26.01 15.79 3.25-18.37-2.07 0.14 3.60 8.09 9.50 8.27 9.21 10.19 53 04' 56" 4860 12.76 22.82-8.21-27.75-17.20-8.40 4.90 0.64-3.74-6.04-17.54 53 28' 04" 1720 36.12 13.70-6.15-10.51-6.66-9.58-2.23-11.32 13.75-5.13-5.22 2.52 54 33' 50" 1200 55.23 65.58 11.57-17.77-0.26 24.54 14.28-4.10 2.07 14.43 3.70 14.92 54 28' 45" 4190 54 48' 50" 10300 17.51 26.36 0.87-28.74-11.98-1.32-1.49-8.32-7.00-1.16-7.85-3.78 54 33' 24" 1480 45.68 66.28 8.75-18.52 1.19 5.12-11.89-15.83 4.23 6.57 0.98 8.45 54 44' 27" 1480 54.41 34.30 13.74-18.32 9.73 13.44 9.94 13.50 13.93 7.10 4.97 17.10 55 30' 23.1" 55 15' 4.0" 1134 92.28 87.24 2.33-19.68-4.89 5.71 8.46 3.46-9.11 1664 92.07 69.28-2.31-31.03 7.50 15.29-7.58-9.83-0.21-22.17-13.74 December -5.81-4.45 2.08 11.60-8.49-5.67 54 7' 4.3" 4300 21.01 22.52 6.50-8.78-0.72 1.95 6.43 10.63 15.58 8.95 1.59 6.93 54 46' 37.5" 55 54' 59.2" 55 31' 29.9" 55 14' 48.0" 54 59' 1.7" 3179 60.49 53.64 19.63-8.48-4.11 11.67 20.62 23.25 18.35 1230 73.11 93.15 11.77-19.85 6.95 12.64 4.62-17.54-23.59-10.57-17.64-12.36 8.47-1.92 13.36 3600 66.94 85.91 20.96-17.35-10.43 10.31 20.78 9.96 11.34 1.08 9.89 17.26 5440 87.93 104.70 30.75-14.12-3.60 22.22 46.08 37.20 40.18 23.73 24.60 26.52 2580 16.72 23.68 22.82-4.64-3.69 1.15-0.73 1.83 6.08 11.33 6.46 6.93 54 1' 9.4" 37100 22.34 24.98 2.67-23.53-11.14-4.47 2.43-2.87 5.80-0.87-7.45 1.84 54 33' 14.8" 55 4' 22.3" 54 41' 31.1" 55 4' 10.2" 42800 22.38 23.07 3.05-22.55-11.35-5.80 1.27-2.78 4.49-2.15-8.48 1.63 81200 31.97 27.42 4.39-18.80-11.41-1.50 9.01 2.09 7.71 0.38-3.31 4.83 15200 17.95 24.95 6.00-24.28-9.79-0.53 1.61-3.47-0.32 1.60-3.38 0.95 24600 31.06 37.27 14.94-19.03-8.21 3.63 10.69 4.38 6.75 3.04 1.60 7.39 Average 41.97 44.21 6.66-19.88-5.23 2.88 5.86 0.90 5.71 0.37-1.46 6.86 13
50 40 42.0 Assessment of the change of runoff (%) in the Niemen Basin (1985-2009) - (1961-1984): average annual +2.7%; minimum (summer-autumn) +7.2%; minimum (winter) +17.5%; maximum (spring) -27.4% 44.2 Months (difference, %) 30 20 10 0-10 6.7-5.2 2.9 5.9 0.9 5.7 0.4-1.5 6.9-20 -30 January February March -19.9 April May June July August September October November December Picture 5 2.3. xamples of the Niemen Basin water resources current status mapping A series of the basin-wide maps (draft version) regarding evaluation of changes in meteorological and hydrological regime in the river basin from 1961 to 2010 was prepared. Total amount of maps is 28 including 11 meteorological maps and 17 hydrological (see examples of maps on the pictures 6-8). Picture 6 14
Picture 7 Picture 8 15
Conclusion Main results of research on the current status of the Niemen Basin was presented and approved in the Third Workshop on Water and Adaptation to Climate Change (25-26 April 2012, Geneva, Switzerland) and in the Fifth Meeting of the Task Force on Water and Climate of the Convention of the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes (27 April 2012, Geneva, Switzerland); Detected changes of meteorological and hydrological characteristics (the main tendencies and trends): Statistically significant increase in annual, winter and summer temperature (largest changes were observed in January); Statistically significant increase in winter precipitation; Maximum spring flood discharge decreased and the minimum winter flow increased statistically significant in large part of territory Peak of spring flood and the dates of minimum winter flow tends occur earlier in the whole basin area. Most surprising finding in assessment of current status and in vulnerability assessment of the Niemen Basin - considerable variation of an meteorological and hydrological characteristics change in year-scale from 1961 on 2010 - at temperature increase on the average on 1 0 С from 1961 on 2010 meteorological and hydrological characteristics are both increasing or decreasing in some months year. Most important lesson from the assessment of current status - common approach (Belarus- Lithuania) on meteorological and hydrological data pre-proceeding, statistical analysis and elaboration of meteorological and hydrological characteristics changes trends. 16