Transport and Energy Integration ERP Transport Post-Plenary Event 21 st April 2016 Liam Lidstone Strategy Manager 2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP The information in this document is the property of Energy Technologies Institute LLP and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Energy Technologies Institute LLP. This information is given in good faith based upon the latest information available to Energy Technologies Institute LLP, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Energy Technologies Institute LLP or any of its subsidiary or associated companies.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the UK energy system The ETI undertakes analysis of the overall energy system Supply Infrastructure Industry Buildings Transport 37% mainly coal-fired power stations <1% 13% 19% 30%
Transport Sector Modality Shift Transport Aviation Heavy Duty Light Duty Domestic International Marine HGV Off-Road Rail Bus/Coach Commercial Vehicles Passenger Cars 2% 19% 6% 15% 7% 1% 2% 9% 39% Modal Shift (<10%) Increasingly Efficient Use of Liquid Fuels Alternative Energy Options Figures are share of UK Transport CO 2 Emissions
Energy density requirements and duty cycles are key for HDVs NG The ETI is seeking to demonstrate 30% improvement in fuel efficiency before aerodynamic and lightweighting advances Natural gas and bio-fuels could supplement liquid fuel given compatible vehicles and subject to lifecycle emissions analysis On board storage requirements are challenging as is the ability to support off-highway duty cycles Hydrogen storage density coupled with fuel cell robustness are major challenges for HDVs H 2 Marine 27% Material Handling 2% UK Heavy Duty CO 2 Emissions (kt) by source (2008) Rail 4% Industrial Machinery 6% Agricultural Machinery 14% Marine 27% Rail 4% Off-highway 22% On-highway 47% Articulated HGV 23% Rigid HGV 18% Bus & Coach 6%
Proportion of all journeys (2007-2010) Electricity demand (GW) Meeting light vehicle charging requirements Journey arrival times (2007-2010) and Electricity demand profile (7th December 2010) 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Education (But Excl. Escorting Others) Holiday Base / Day trip In course of work Personal Business (Medical, Eat/drink, Other) Visiting Friends / Socialising / Enterainment / Sports Escorting Others Shopping (Food and Other) Travel to Work Return Home Time of day Electricity demand Compiled using NTS and UKERC data
Proportion of Parc Where to support charging Home Workplace Parking availability at homes Food Shopping Location Eat / Drink Location Other Shopping Location On-street parking only - 'inadequate' 100% 80% 60% On-street parking only - 'adequate' Off-street parking - owner / occupier 40% 20% 0% At least once Three + Seven + Fourteen + Arrivals of a Given Vehicle at a Given Location Each Week Off-street parking - a flat / apartment Off-street parking - rented, but not a flat / apartment Compiled using NTS data Based on DCLG data
Passenger Car Energy Consumption (TWh / Year) A transition away from liquid fuels for passenger cars 300 250 200 TOTAL ENERGY IN H2 MODE TOTAL ENERGY IN ELECTRIC MODE TOTAL ENERGY IN BIO-GASOLINE TOTAL ENERGY IN FOSSIL-GASOLINE TOTAL ENERGY IN BIO-DIESEL TOTAL ENERGY IN FOSSIL-DIESEL 150 100 50-2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: ETI analysis (input data from various sources, including ETI projects)
Consumers Vehicles and Energy Integration (CVEI) project Sustainability Users Security Affordability Vehicles Energy supply
Consumers
Parc Total Annual Miles (Billion [1x10 9 ] Miles) Fleet buyers are seen by many as the route to market for new vehicle technologies, but......although they buy around half the new cars, they sell them quickly and only own ~8% of vehicle in the UK......so an attractive proposition must be created for private car buyers, to avoid prohibitive depreciation......hence, the system design needs to be optimised for the whole lifecycle....and this needs to take account of the ratio of GHG emissions in use vs manufacture. 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 10th+ Owner 9th 8th 7th 6th 5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st 0 1 Some vehicles are pre-registered or sold on within first year 28% of mileage 2 3 33% of mileage 4 5 6 7 Vehicle Age (Years) 20% of mileage 19% of mileage 8 9 10 11 12
Mt CO2/year Transport emissions in a whole system context 600 Net CO2 Emissions 500 400 300 200 100 International Aviation & Shipping Transport Sector Buildings Sector Power Sector Other conversion Industry Sector Other CO2 Biogenic credits 0-100 2010 (Historic) 2020 2030 2040 2050-200 ESME v4.1 Database 100sim
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