Georgia Tech Clean Energy Speaker Series Southeast Wind Energy: Is An Answer Blowing in the Wind? September 29, 2010 Wind Energy in the Southeast: Offshore and Land-Based Potential Presented by Amir Mikhail, Ph.D. Senior Vice President of Engineering Clipper Windpower, Inc.
Agenda 1 2 Offshore Wind Resource Project Installations 3 4 5 Economics / Cost of Energy Challenges Land-Based 2
Offshore Wind Resource
Europe Offshore wind resource: Higher Winds Less Variable 4 Source: Riso National Laboratory
North Sea Source: Garrad Hassan 5
US / Southeast Offshore wind resource area and potential by wind speed interval and state within 50 nm of shore. Source: NREL June 2010 Source: NREL June 2010 6
US / Southeast US offshore wind resource at 90 m above the surface. Total potential: 4 x Installed electric capacity in US. Source: NREL June 2010 7
US / Southeast US bathymetry distribution. East Coast more shallow than West Coast. Source: NREL June 2010 8
US / Southeast Distance from US shoreline (nm). State boundary 3 nm except for Texas and Gulf coast of Florida (9 nm). 9 Source: NREL June 2010
US / Georgia Georgia 90 m (hub height at MSL) offshore wind speed. 10 Source: NREL June 2010
Project Installations
Technical Issues Offshore Technology North-West Europe Offshore Plants: 2,110 MW Installed Capacity of Offshore Wind Power for Total World Source: BTM Consult ApS March 2010 12 Red = (built Mm wind turbines), Purple = (built small wind turbines) Blue=(under construction), Grey=(planned) Source: www.offshorewindenergy.org, September 2008
Offshore Wind Growth Forecast UK offshore Round I and II drive current development; Round III projects pick up in 2013 forward in nine zones totaling 32 GW Source: BTM Consultancy Report Germany permits 25 sites (22 North Sea, 3 in Baltic) Transpower installs HVDC substation and transmission backed by utilities at cost of 500M. Net capacity result by 2020: UK = 40GW Germany = 25GW Source: BTM Consultancy Report Source: EWEA 2010 Report 13
Economics / Cost of Energy
Technical Issues Offshore Technology Typical Offshore Installations: Danish and UK offshore demonstration and commercial installations. Costs estimated at $1.5 - $4.5m/MW installed. Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory 15
Cost of Energy A generic method for evaluating offshore wind in comparison to other power generation methods is given by: 16
Cost of Energy Offshore Wind (Worldwide market, IEC Class I) Average 181 $/MWh WIND FARM (All Europe) YEAR SIZE (MW) Thanet 2010 300 Walney Island 2012 386 Ormonde 2011 150 Sheringham Shoal 2011 317 Borkum Riffgrund West 2013 400 Lincs 2012 270 Borkum West II 2011 200 Meerwind 2012 200 Innogy Nordsee 1 2013 324 Greater Gabbard 2012 504 Nordegrunde 2011 320 Kriegers Flak 1 2013 200 Gwynt y Mor 2013 576 London Array 2012 630 Global Tech 1 2013 400 CAPEX data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, August 2010. LCOE20 calculated internally using 41% capacity factor and $26/MWh operations cost (K2). 17
Technical Issues Offshore Technology Britannia 10 MW and Liberty 2.5 MW Size Comparison: 18
Technical Issues Offshore Technology Britannia 10 MW: Designed for offshore. Advanced:» Rotor blade airfoils» Gearbox concepts» Controls» Electrical system concepts New economics of scale for offshore applications. 19
Challenges
Technical Issues Offshore Technology Installation: 21
Technical Challenges Offshore Technology Challenges: Offshore environment:» Wind speed/energy potential» Turbulence and inflow monitoring Wave loading:» Wave spectrum Shallow water Deep water» Extreme waves» Wind-wave correlation Turbine dynamics code enhancement & validation:» Fatigue/linear waves and turbulent wind» Stability and controls» Extreme events/non-linear waves Foundations:» Shallow water monopole, gravity, suction» Deep water anchors Grid integration and transmission to shore 22 Larger RNA to compensate for high cost support structure Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory Middelgrunden Wind Farm, Denmark
Land-Based
Land-Based US wind resource with emphasis on the Southeast. State: GA SC NC Range:. 1 1 GW 1 5 GW 5 10 GW Total Capabilities By 2030 300 GW Total capacity = 16 x electrical consumption within the US. Source: PNAS July 2009 Source: US Department of Energy, July 2008 24
Cost of Energy Onshore Technologies Projected Costs of Generating Energy, 2010 Edition International Energy Agency 25
Thank You