FTTH in Europe Regulation in Europe Karl Bauer, Member of Board of Directors 2009/2010 FTTH Council Europe
FTTH Council Europe
FTTH Council Europe Our Vision: A sustainable future enabled by Fibre to the Home Our Mission To accelerate FTTH adoption through information and promotion in order to enhance the quality of life, contribute to a better environment and increased competitiveness Organisation Founded in 2004, non-profit industry organisation More than 130 members
FTTH Conference 2011 9-10 February 2011 - Milan
FTTH Worldwide and in Europe
FTTH Global panorama 2009 7.6 M 2.5 M (3.5M)* 38 M and FTTH continues to grow * Including Russia
FTTH European Ranking 2009
FTTH European Ranking 2009 Countries Households FTTH/B subs Dec 2009 Penetration December 2009 FTTH FTTB 1 Lithuania 1 357 000 239 900 17,68% 180 60 2 Sweden 4 400 000 537 100 12,21% 269 269 3 Norway 2 000 000 215 400 10,77% 215 0 4 Slovenia 700 000 71 000 10,14% 71 0 5 Estonia 582 000 40 400 6,94% 4 36 6 Denmark 2 500 000 160 800 6,43% 121 40 7 Slovakia 2 200 000 63 000 2,86% 63 0 8 Finland 2 476 500 70 440 2,84% 35 35 9 Netherlands 7 000 000 194 800 2,78% 175 19 10 Italy 22 300 000 325 000 1,46% 16 309 11 Latvia 896 916 11 800 1,32% 12 0 12 France 25 500 000 308 200 1,21% 108 200 13 Czech Republic 3 800 000 44 000 1,16% 9 35 14 Portugal 3 900 000 41 500 1,06% 42 0 15 Bulgaria 2 900 000 29 000 1,00% 6 23 Source: FTTH European Ranking, FTTH Council Europe & IDATE, December 2009 Note: The Ranking covers all countries with at least 200,000 households where FTTH/B penetration has reached 1% of the total number of homes.
Evolution of FTTH Subscribers in Europe Note: FTTH/FTTB definitions by the Global FTTH Councils
New subscribers per country in last 6 months Note: FTTH/FTTB definitions by the Global FTTH Councils
Evolution of FTTH homes passed in Europe Note: FTTH/FTTB definitions by the Global FTTH Councils
Portugal Telecom Is Fibre a Problem for Shareholders? Society Economy Common argument of incumbents: investors and shareholders don t support long term investments Portugal Telecom announced FTTH deployment in January 2009 The incumbent deployed a fibre network passing more than 800.000 households within one year Value of shares of PT increased by more than 50% between April and December 2009
Conclusions The FTTH/B market is growing steadily in Western/Northern Europe Several Eastern European countries are significantly deploying FTTH/B and contributing to future growth Lithuania is new number one Slovenia, Estonia, Slovakia, Latvia, Czech Republic and Bulgaria are also all in the Ranking Portugal has proven that a joint effort of all players can push forward a country within just one year France joins Italy as the second European G-20 country to join the Ranking. UK and Germany are still missing. Four countries have more than 15% penetration In six countries, more than 10% of households are already using FTTH/B
What next?
European Region FTTH Forecast 30000 Connected Households, 000s 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 1584 2399 3333 4872 7200 10665 16420 23319 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Heavy Reading Note: Households connected directly to fibre (FTTH) and appartments connected via basement fibre termination (FTTB)
Top 12 FTTH countries in 2014, by number of connected households Russia France Germany Netherlands Italy Sweden Spain UK Denmark Norway Switzerland Portugal 800 770 680 550 420 480 1350 1300 1440 2550 2900 4650 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 Connected Households, Dec 2014 Source: Heavy Reading
FTTH countries in Europe, 2014, by household penetration Slovenia 35,8% Sweden Denmark Norway 27,2% 26,2% 29,2% Netherlands Slovak Republic Finland 17,0% 20,4% 20,0% Bulgaria 12,3% Russia 8,8% Switzerland Portugal France 12,5% 13,7% 12,9% 0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% 25,0% 30,0% 35,0% 40,0% Household penetration, Dec 2014 Source: Heavy Reading
Summary Over 23m households will be connected to FTTH or FTTB at the end of 2014 in the countries covered by this forecast this is about 8% of all homes in the region In the EU only, the total will touch 16 million, or 8.3% of all homes Six of the 21 nations individually analysed should achieve fibre maturity (20% penetration) by 2014 Slovenia, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Netherlands and Slovakia On current trends, seven of those nations will still be under 10% penetration at the end of 2014 UK, Belgium, Poland, Spain, Greece, Italy and Germany Unlike most other regions, incumbents are not currently the major providers of FTTH, and this will likely remain the case through the next five years The dominance of FTTB and municipal build-outs means that P2P Ethernet is the main technology in use, though the proportion of PON will gradually increase
Two PracScal Examples
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Thank you for your attention!