Motor Vehicle Emissions and the Government Response Bruce Bertelsen Michael P. Walsh May 26, 2000 "Meeting Meeting Mexico's Air Quality Challenges" 06/19/00 1
Introduction Motor Vehicles Contribute to Serious Air Quality Problems Worldwide Motor Vehicle Emission Control Programs That Have Been Established Over the Past 30 Years Are Helping To Address These Problems Serious Air Quality Problems Remain Expanding the Implementation and Enforcement of Effective Programs Will Help Address Future Air Quality Problems 06/19/00 2
Motor Vehicle Emissions Contribute to Serious Air Quality Problems Pollutants That Cause Ground Level Ozone Carbon Monoxide Particulates Toxic Air Contaminants Greenhouse Gas Emissions 06/19/00 3
Change from 1970 to 1996 United States 150% 121% 104% 100% 50% 0% 29% 8% -50% -31% -38% -39% -100% -98% -73% -150% VMT Population GDP CO Lead NOx VOC PM10 SOx National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report 1996 06/19/00 4
New Vehicle Emissions Requirements Emissions Controls Light Duty Gasoline Vehicles 2000 No Controls Engine Modifications Three Way Catalysts Tier 1/Euro 1 LEV/Euro 3 06/19/00 5
New Vehicle Emissions Requirements Emissions Controls Light Duty Diesel Vehicles 2000 No Controls Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 06/19/00 6
Leaded Gasoline Sales in 2000 World Countries 0% 25% 50% 75% 90% 100% 06/19/00 7
Diesel Fuel Sulfur Specifications PPM 600 500 500 500 400 350 300 200 100 50 50 0 US National EU 2005 Sweden Class 1 EU 2000 Danish City Bus Japan 10 50 10 UK Germany (2003) 06/19/00 8
Fuel Economy of New Vehicles New Vehicle MPG 30 Light Duty Vehicles 25 Light Duty Trucks 30 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 5 06/19/00 9
Global Population Trends and Projections 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 Billions 6 5 4 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 1250 1750 1850 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2000 2020 2040 0 Source: United Nations 06/19/00 10
Global Trend In Motor Vehicles Millions of Vehicles 900 900 800 Motorcycles Commercial Vehicles Cars 800 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 0 06/19/00 11
Global Atmospheric Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases - PPM CO2 All Other Gases 400 358 1.72 2 300 280 1.5 200 100 0.7 0.275 0.312 1 0.5 CO2 Methane N2O 0 Source: IPCC Preindustrial 1994 0 06/19/00 12
Ongoing Challenges for Vehicles Very Low CO, HC, NOx, PM, Toxics Very Low CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs 06/19/00 13
Global Trends in On Road Motor Vehicle Emissions (Normalized( to 1990) 3 NMHC NOx CH4 CO2 3 2.5 CO N2O 2.5 2 2 1.5 1.5 1 1 0.5 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 0.5 06/19/00 14
Average Los Angeles Basin Cancer Risk Apportionment Approximate Risk = 1414 per Million Carbonyl 3.0% Benzene 7.0% Other 11.0% 1,3 Butadiene 8.0% Diesel PM 71.0% 06/19/00 15
Motor Vehicle Emission Control Program Developments Outside of North America Europe European Union (EU) adopts tighter emission standards for cars, light trucks, and heavy-duty engines EU adopts sulfur limits in gasoline and diesel (50 ppm sulfur) EU agrees on "voluntary" vehicle CO 2 reduction Eastern Europe (Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic) moving towards EU 06/19/00 16
Motor Vehicle Emission Control Program Developments Outside of North America (continued) Japan Tightened gasoline car standards for the first time since 1978 Tightened diesel car and truck standards Further tightening of standards expected in 2005 Requirement to low sulfur level in fuel expected in 2005 Major Diesel Retrofit Program in Tokyo 06/19/00 17
Motor Vehicle Emission Control Program Developments Outside of North America (continued) China Lead phased out by 2000 Introduce Euro 1 standards for cars and light trucks in 2000 (Beijing, Shanghai 1999) Introduce Euro 1 standards for heavy trucks in 2001 (Beijing in 2000) I/M demonstration program in Shanghai 06/19/00 18
Motor Vehicle Emission Control Program Developments Outside of North America (continued) India Lead in gasoline phased out in 2000 Cars must meet Euro 1 standards Trucks and buses must meet Euro 1 standards in 2000 Tighter motorcycle standards in 2000 06/19/00 19
Motor Vehicle Emission Control Program Developments Outside of North America (continued) The Rest of the World Tighter standards being phased in in countries such as: Taiwan Korea Philippines Australia 06/19/00 20
Conclusions While Significant Progress Has Been Made in Reducing Motor Vehicle Emissions Worldwide, Serious Air Quality Problems Remain Emission Control Programs to Address these Air Quality Problems Are Being Implemented Throughout the World Advances in Engine Technology, Emission Control Technology and Fuel Quality Will Play a Major Role in Addressing Air Quality Problems 06/19/00 21