Petroleum and Natural Gas Outlook Energy Summit 26: Developing and Supporting Critical Energy Infrastructures at the LSU Center for Energy Studies Baton Rouge, Louisiana October 2, 26 A. Michael Schaal, Director Oil and Gas Division Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting Michael.Schaal@eia.doe.gov 1
Overview Petroleum Outlook Natural Gas Outlook Price Cases 2
World Oil Prices* in Three Cases, 199-23 (2 dollars per barrel) 12 1 8 6 2 High price Reference Low price $96 $7 $3 199 199 2 2 21 21 22 22 23 * Foreign low-sulfur light crude oil prices 3
Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Imports, 197-23 (million barrels per day) 3 3 2 2 1 Consumption STEO - 1/26 Net Imports 1 Domestic supply 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 21 22 22 23
Domestic Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day) 1 9 8 7 6 STEO - 1/26 3 2 1 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 21 22 22 23
Net Petroleum Imports (million barrels per day) 2 18 16 1 12 STEO - 1/2 1 8 6 2 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 21 22 22 23 6
Domestic Crude Oil Production by Region (million barrels per day) 9 8 7 6 3 Lower 8 Onshore 2 Lower 8 Offshore 1 Alaska 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 21 22 22 23 7
Ethanol Supply by Source (billion gallons) 2 16 12 8 Cellulose Based RFS Imports Corn Based 23 28 213 218 223 228 8
U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Imports, 196-23 (trillion cubic feet) 3 2 2 1 1 Pipeline LNG 196 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 9 22.3 Net Imports Consumption 1% Natural Gas Net Imports, 2 and 23 (trillion cubic feet) 7 6 2. 23 2.8 3 2 1.2 1.6 18.8 Production STEO - 1/26 26.9 21% 2.8
Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 199-23 (trillion cubic feet) 1 Industrial 9.98 8 6 2 Electric Generation Residential Commercial 6.38.6 3.99 199 199 2 2 21 21 22 22 23 1 Transportation.87
28 Sources of Incremental U.S. Natural Gas Supply, 2-23 (trillion cubic feet) 26 Growth in Alaskan Production 2 22 2 Growth in LNG Imports Growth in Unconventional 18 16 Base Production (all sources) 2 21 21 22 22 23 11
Natural Gas Production by Source, 199-23 (trillion cubic feet) 1 8 6 Lower 8 Non-Associated Unconventional 9. 2 Lower 8 Non-Associated Conventional Onshore.17 Lower 8 Non-Associated Offshore 2.82 2.2 Lower 8 Associated-Dissolved 2.1 Alaska 199 199 2 2 21 21 22 22 23 12
Technically Recoverable U.S. Natural Gas esources as of Jan. 1, 2 (trillion cubic feet) Proved 189 Inferred nonassociated 177 Undiscovered nonassociated Unconventional Other unproved 16 7 122 16 132 31 39 22 268 83 Offshore Onshore Offshore Onshore Coalbed methane 78 Shale gas Tight gas 7 Alaska Lower 8 associated-dissolved 1 2 3 Total: 1,31 trillion cubic feet 13
Net U.S. Imports of Natural Gas, 199-23 (trillion cubic feet) 3 LNG.36 2 1 Canada 1.77-1 199 199 2 2 21 21 22 22 23 1 Mexico -.6
Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, 199-23 (2 dollars per thousand cubic feet) 9 8 7 6 $.92 3 2 1 199 199 2 2 21 21 22 22 23 1
Price Cases 16
World Oil Prices* in Three Cases, 199-23 (2 dollars per barrel) 12 1 8 6 2 High price Reference Low price $96 $7 $3 199 199 2 2 21 21 22 22 23 * Foreign low-sulfur light crude oil prices 17
Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Imports, 199-23 (million barrels per day) 3 2 Low price Reference High price 2 Consumption Net Imports 1 1 Domestic supply High price Reference Low price 199 199 2 2 21 21 22 22 23 18
Net Petroleum Imports, 199-23 (million barrels per day) 2 2 Low price 1 1 Reference High price 199 199 2 2 21 21 22 22 23 19
Gas-to-Liquids, Coal-to-Liquids, and Oil Shale Production in the Price Cases, 199-23 (million barrels per day) 2. Coal to Liquids/ High price 1.6 1.2.8 Coal to Liquids/ Reference. Oil Shale/High price Gas to Liquids/ High price. 199 199 2 2 21 21 22 22 23 2
Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, 199-23 (2 dollars per thousand cubic feet) 9 8 7 6 3 2 High price Reference Low price $7.71 $.92 $.97 1 199 199 2 2 21 21 22 22 23 21
Natural Gas Consumption and Net Imports, 199-23 (trillion cubic feet) 3 3 2 2 Consumption Low price Reference High price 1 1 Net Imports Low price Reference High price 199 199 2 2 21 21 22 22 23 22
U.S. LNG Imports, 199-23 (trillion cubic feet) 8 7 7. 6 Low price ($3). 3 Reference ($7) 2 1.9 1 High price ($96) 199 199 2 2 21 21 22 22 23 23