Future of Mobility Where is it All Going? Martyn Briggs Carplus Conference, 3 rd November
Today s Journey 1. The beginning of the Future of Mobility 2. Deep Dive on Mobility Services 1. Continued Growth & Outlook of Car Clubs Globally 2. Car on Demand Business Models (carsharing, ridesharing, taxi/hailing) 3. Integrated Mobility (private & public led approaches) 3. Conclusions & Outlook 2
Paradigm Shift from Vehicle Ownership to Vehicle Usage We are moving very quickly from public and private transport being separate businesses, to a more Integrated Multi Modal Mobility Network, due to changing demographics, preferences, and technology Mobility Integration: Paradigm Shift from Vehicle Ownership to Vehicle Usage Connectivity Population Growth Transport = Private Vehicle Freedom Convenience Status Progress No Real Alternative Gen Y Urbanization Congestion Virtualization Pollution Social Responsibility Globalization Natural Resources Transport = Door-to-door Mobility New Vehicles: BRT, EV, High Speed Rail New Business Models: Vehicle Sharing, Car Pooling Inter- Connectivity: Intermodality Urban Planning: Reallocation of street space Integrated Mobility: New technology enabled multi modal integration 3
Carsharing Business Models There are already several well established vehicle sharing business models catering to several customer groups and use cases, by the minute, hour or longer term corporate carsharing/leasing Traditional Peer to Peer Corporate Round-trip/station based services vehicles rented & returned to same location (e.g. Zipcar) One-way fixed point to point journeys (e.g. Autolib) One Way Free Floating services; vehicles rented from or two anywhere in a specified zone (e.g. car2go, DriveNow) Short rental/a few days Insurance - key to the operating model/platforms Key Players incl. Getaround, RelayRides, Wheelz, Buzzcar, Tamyca Asset Light business Dedicated fleet of vehicles at company premises for the shared use amongst the company s employees. Integrated keyless operations, vehicle telematics, and analytics technologies key Key Players incl. AlphaCity, Ubeeqo 93,000 Vehicles 5,300,000 Members 147,500 Vehicles 1,500,000 Members 4,000 Vehicles 60,000 Members already nearly 7m people use these shared services globally 4
Global Carsharing Membership and Fleet Size By 2014, (traditional) carsharing membership grew to over 5 million, and the number of vehicles to >93,000, increasing the member-to-vehicle ratio to 57:1 Traditional Carsharing Market Growth: Membership and Fleet Size, Global, 2006 2014 5.00 5.29 100.00 93,152 4.50 90.00 4.00 3.50 3.45 80.00 70.00 73,287 Members (Million) 3.00 2.50 2.00 2.12 Vehicles ( 000) 60.00 50.00 40.00 31,952 49,817 1.50 1.00 0.67 1.16 30.00 20.00 11,501 19,403 0.50 0.35 10.00 0.00 2006 2008 2010 2012 2013 2014 Year North America Europe Asia Australia Latin America 0.00 2006 2008 2010 2012 2013 2014 Year North America Europe Asia Australia Latin America Source: Frost & Sullivan aggregation of operators, associations, academics data sources obtained through primary & secondary research 5
Key Trends & Outlook for the Carsharing Market With considerable business model innovation, investment, and public sector support, the carsharing ecosystem is set to become more integrated with existing transit networks Short- Mid Term Dynamic Pricing Parking Reservation, valet/automated parking Increasing peer to peer (for parking, cars, rides, taxis) One Way Free floating analytics for distribution Long Term Investment & Partnerships from OEMs Increased Tenders from Cities & Public Support Ultimate blurring of business models towards one integrated solution the smartphone Mobility-As-A-Service Source: Frost & Sullivan 6
Beyond Car Clubs: Asset Light is the New Focus Area... The world s largest accommodation provider, owns no real estate The world s most popular media owner, creates no content The world s most valuable retailer, has no inventory The world s largest taxi company, owns no vehicles Source: Tom Goodwin (Tech Crunch) What is the next world s most? The world s largest rail company, owns no trains The world largest parking company, owns no parking The world largest mobility company, owns no asset The world largest car company, manufacturers no vehicles... 7
Car On Demand, and Mobility on Demand The Rise of Asset Light The true disruptive forces in Mobility are taking place via platforms linking supply & demand, a marketplace phenomenon; customers now expect mobility services on demand Car on Demand Ridesharing Parking P2P Rental Integrated Mobility Didi Taxi Rise of platforms matching supply and demand to reduce spare capacity and improve the user experience > Customers now expect on-demand solutions and are happy to use shared services. We are seeing a trend from urban, to intra-urban and inter-urban, could further growth come from suburban and rural mobility markets? 8
What are the Implications of Car On Demand? The rise of new mobility solutions to access cars will lead to a substitutional effect away from private car ownership in urban areas; the industry is quickly reacting to provide mobility as a service Reduction in Car Ownership? Value Creation in Platform, not asset? Value Chain to become Mobility Service Providers One Carsharingvehicle can remove 10-15 privately owned cars from the road, and one Uber vehicle removes 4 Uber is valued at $50bn, more than Ford, Avis and Hertz combined OEMs, Leasing, Rental, Suppliers, Public transport providers, cities, tech firms convergence? The interface is where the profit is why should this be confined to only urban mobility? 9
Corporate Mobility: Current Usage and Future Interest Our recent corporate mobility survey showed that although company car is still king in the short term, the highest levels of future interest were for corporate car sharing and car pooling 25% High Potentials Strong Performance Corporate Car Sharing Incentivised Car Pooling Cash Car Allowance Corporate Company Car Future Interest 15% Cycle Scheme Corporate Company Van Rental Company Pool Car Car Club Membership Shuttle Service Incentivised Public Transport Mileage Allowance Reimbursement Low Prioritisation Hidden Opportunity 5% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% Current solutions 10
Roadmap towards Integrated Mobility The Services of Journey Planning, Booking, Payment & Reconciliation are needed to truly enable Integrated Mobility this encompasses several well established industries, and presents significant opportunity Integrated Mobility Source: Frost & Sullivan Journey Planning Booking Payment & Reconciliation Multi Modal Planning of journeys via smartphone or web platforms (business model: usually advertising or commissions) Booking of transportation modes via technology platforms, including referrals from third parties (business model: direct revenue or commisison) Facilitating payment for transportation services and clearing / expense management (business model either commission or service fees) 11
Case Study: Helsinki Mobility-As-A-Service (MAAS) Concept Integration of public and private forms of mobility under the same platform will give rise to a new type of mobility business model a monthly subscription for Mobility The MAAS vision: mobility integration tailored to your need as a monthly package the Spotify of Mobility Transport systems become a consumer business transport regulation changes towards procuring an SLA MAAS already has 24 partners but seeking OEMs and others to join the initial ecosystem 3 Phases in Enabling MAAS 1 st Commercial Operators World 1 st - minimum viable product Business sets the pace Embrace, co-finance, support key players, international visibility Building Ecosystem integrate private & public transport systems; adapt role of public authority to become partners for commercial operators Involve, enhance, promote, activate the SME s, export activities Shaping Society new digital mobility services; convergence of public & private transport. Government no longer organises transport but procures SLA De-regulation, market driven public procurement Finland s MAAS integrates all forms of shared and public transport in a single payment network could essentially render private cars obsolete; the key differentiator will be commercial agreements, and user experience 12
Mobility Models Expansion, Partnerships, Integration with Car Clubs Car clubs are partnering with other mobility services and leasing companies to diversify their business models, and include existing private vehicle owners in their member base. Partnerships with Public Transport (e.g. Moovel) > towards integrated mobility Public Transport Partnerships with leasing co.s > towards flexible leasing Car Leasing Partnerships with Bike Sharing > towards sustainable active mobility Ridesharing Mobility Service Integration With Car Clubs Car clubs by transit companies & acquisitions (SNCF Ouicar) > public & private transport convergence P2P Rental Bike Sharing P2P & leasing partnerships (e.g. Snappcar) > sub-leasing in B2B Emergence of OEM Partnerships (e.g. Ford/Getaround) > new car based mobility services Integrated Mobility Multi-product agreements, e.g. Opel Car Unity (P2P & Ridesharing), Ubeeqo (carsharing, rental, PHV) > Expanding mobility platforms Source: Frost & Sullivan 13
New Mobility Business Models & Partnerships Enable First/Last Mile In both B2C and B2B environments customers are demanding intuitive services; many players investing significantly to deliver a seamless proposition & user experience for Integrated Mobility Taxi Services OEMs Bike Sharing Car Rental Companies Leasing Companies Micro-mobility Car Sharing Corporate Car-Sharing Integrated Solution Providers Integrated Mobility Travel Management Companies Car Rental Ridesharing Parking Public Transport Operators Fleet Management Providers Software Platform Providers What is needed for mobility solutions to become mainstream? Policy, Investment & Behaviour Change E-Mobility Public Transport Integrated Mobility Ecosystem Partnership 14
What s Required to deliver the future of Collaborative Mobility? A combination of New Business Models, supportive policy and technology led innovation are required to achieve fully collaborative mobility New Business Models Smart Policy & Governance CAR SHARING & RIDESHARING SMART PARKING CAR ON DEMAND MICRO-MOBILITY Open Data Framework for New Mobility Integrated Platforms Technology Incubation Incentives PUBLIC TRANSPORT (Intra/Inter city) COLLABORATIVE MOBILITY Technology & Innovation Big Data Analytics Door to Door Smart Ticket/Payment Reporting/Reconciliation Everything Mobile! 15
Summary from Today s Presentation The Future of Mobility is set to become integrated, multi-modal, and door to door, giving customers ondemand access to transportation through technology enabled services There is a convergence in the mobility landscape increasing collaboration and consolidation among mobility players The lines between B2B, B2C and P2P are blurring and creating space for new players Digital transformation is having a profound impact and becoming integral to the mobility industry to service its clients Whilst services have largely targeted B2C markets thus far, business customers are the next priority targets with Corporate Mobility solutions Mobility is becoming far more connected, asset light, and integrated Customer expectations are shifting from ownership to tech-enabled mobility 16
Thank You & Keep in Touch! #IntelligentMobility Future of Mobility Video Martyn Briggs Industry Principal, Mobility, Direct: (+44) 2079157830 Mobile: +44 (0) 753 428 2371 martyn.briggs@frost.com Watch our latest Video on the Future of Mobility, filmed live at Frost & Sullivan s Annual Mobility Workshop Join our discussions on LinkedIn and connect with us on @FS_automotive @BriggsMartyn Join us in London, June 2016! 17