Implications of the U.S. Shale Revolution For October 17, 214 Chicago, Illinois By Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov
U.S. is the largest producer of petroleum and natural gas in the world estimated U.S., Russia, and Saudi Arabia petroleum and natural gas production quadrillion Btu million barrels per day of oil equivalent 6 United States 3 5 4 Russia Saudi Arabia 25 2 3 natural gas 2 15 1 1 petroleum 5 28 29 21 211 212 213 214e Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Note: Petroleum production includes crude oil, natural gas liquids, condensates, refinery processing gain, and other liquids, including biofuels; barrels per day oil equivalent were calculated using a conversion factor of 1 barrel oil equivalent=5.55 million British thermal units (Btu) October 17, 214 2
October 17, 214 3
These seven regions accounted for 95% of U.S. oil production growth and all U.S. natural gas production growth from 211-213 Source: EIA, Drilling Productivity Report October 17, 214 4
The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources Eagle Ford (TX) Bakken (MT & ND) Spraberry (TX & NM Permian) Bonespring (TX & NM Permian) Wolfcamp (TX & NM Permian) Delaware (TX & NM Permian) Yeso-Glorieta (TX & NM Permian) Niobrara-Codell (CO, WY) Haynesville Utica (OH, PA & WV) Marcellus Woodford (OK) Granite Wash (OK & TX) Austin Chalk (LA & TX) Monterey (CA) U.S. tight oil production million barrels of oil per day 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5 Marcellus (PA & WV) Haynesville (LA & TX) Eagle Ford (TX) Fayetteville (AR) Barnett (TX) Woodford (OK) Bakken (ND) Antrim (MI, IN, & OH) Utica (OH, PA & WV) Rest of US 'shale' U.S. dry shale gas production billion cubic feet per day 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214. 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 Sources: EIA derived from state administrative data collected by DrillingInfo Inc. Data are through August 214 and represent EIA s official tight oil & shale gas estimates, but are not survey data. State abbreviations indicate primary state(s). October 17, 214 5
U.S. shale gas leads growth in total gas production through 24, when production exceeds 1 billion cubic feet per day U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet 4 history 35 3 212 billion cubic feet per day projections 1 9 8 25 2 15 1 Non-associated onshore Tight gas 3 2 5 Non-associated offshore Associated with oil Alaska 1 Coalbed methane 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 214, Reference case Shale gas 7 6 5 4 October 17, 214 6
Natural gas consumption growth is driven by electric power, industrial, and transportation use U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet 35. 3. history projections 25. 11. electric power 2. 8.5 15. 1. 5.. 9.1.7 2.9 4.2 25 212 22 225 23 235 24 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 214, Reference case 11.2 1.7 3.6 4.1 industrial* transportation** commercial residential *Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel **Includes pipeline fuel October 17, 214 7
U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the near future U.S. dry natural gas trillion cubic feet per year history 212 4 projections billion cubic feet per day 1 3 2 Consumption Domestic supply 75 5 1 Net exports 25-1 -25 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 214 Reference case October 17, 214 8
Projected U.S. natural gas trade depends on assumptions regarding resources and future technology advances Reference case trillion cubic feet per year 8 High Oil and Gas Resource case trillion cubic feet per year 8 billion cubic feet per day 2 6 4 2-2 6 exports to Mexico 4 exports to Canada 2 lower 48 LNG exports imports from Canada -2 15 1 5-5 LNG imports -1-4 -4 21 215 22 225 21 215 22 225 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 214, Reference case and High Oil and Gas Resource case October 17, 214 9
Shale gas in eastern Canada Of the four shale plays in Eastern Canada, two have been assessed by ARI Utica in Quebec has 31.1 Tcf of technically recoverable resources Horton Bluff in Nova Scotia has 3.4 Tcf of technically recoverable resources These shale resource volumes are not included in NEB s 213 estimates Quebec enacted a hydraulic fracturing moratorium in 212 pending further research New Brunswick permits hydraulic fracturing, but has imposed strict rules surrounding it Nova Scotia, similar to Quebec, will not permit hydraulic fracturing until the completion of a review, due mid-214 Source: Advanced Resources International, Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources: An Assessment of 137 Shale Formations in 41 Countries Outside the United States October 17, 214 1
LNG export projects in eastern Canada Goldboro LNG Terminal H-Energy LNG Terminal Planned year in service 219 22 Liquefaction capacity 1.3 Bcf/d.6 Bcf/d Storage capacity 14.6 Bcf N/A Contract 2 year supply deal with E. On AG N/A Supply sources Marcellus, eastern Canada N/A NEB approval Under review N/A Maine Source: Company websites October 17, 214 11
Resources in eastern Canada are modest compared with the Canada national total Canada marketable resources in trillion cubic feet as of 12/31/12 Ontario and Quebec 8 West coast 17 YK NT NU East coast Northern Canada WCSB* 91 116 861 BC AB SK MB ON QC NL NB NS 2 4 6 8 1 Note: WCSB stands for Western Canada Sedimentary Basin. All Territories are included under Northern Canada. Source: National Energy Board, Canada s Energy Future 213 October 17, 214 12
Resource and technology assumptions have major implications for projected U.S. crude oil production beyond the next few years Reference case million barrels per day High Oil and Gas Resource case million barrels per day 14 history 212 projections 14 history 212 projections 12 1 8 6 12 STEO October 214 U.S. crude oil projection 1 8 tight oil 6 tight oil 4 other lower 48 states onshore 2 lower 48 states offshore Alaska 199 2 21 22 4 other lower 48 states onshore 2 lower 48 states offshore Alaska 199 2 21 22 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 214; Short Term Energy Outlook, October 214 October 17, 214 13
Most of the growth in production between 211 and 215 consists of sweet grades with API gravity of 4 or above U.S. crude oil production by type million barrels of oil per day 1 9 8 7 history forecast 6 5 4 3 API 5+ API 4-5 API 35-4 API 27-35 API below 27 2 1 211 212 213 214 215 Source: EIA, DrillingInfo, Colorado DNR, Texas RRC. http://www.eia.gov/analysis/petroleum/crudetypes/ October 17, 214 14
U.S. rail carloads of crude oil and petroleum products exceed 1.5 million b/d in 214 number of rail carloads per week 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, million barrels per day 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.8.6.4.2 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on Association of American Railroads October 17, 214 15
U.S. is already a major net exporter of petroleum products U.S. petroleum product net exports million barrels per day 3 2 215(e) 1-1 -2-3 195 196 197 198 199 2 21 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 214 Reference case and Short Term Energy Outlook October 17, 214 16
Over 6% of U.S. petroleum product exports go to the Americas, with Mexico and Canada as its largest global trading partners U.S. petroleum product gross exports million barrels per day 4 35 3 Canada Mexico 25 2 Other Americas 15 1 5 Other Global 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 Source: EIA Americas Report October 17, 214 17
Most significant contributors to non-opec crude and lease condensate production: Canada, Brazil, U.S., Kazakhstan, Russia non-opec crude and lease condensate production, Reference case million barrels per day 24 21 225 24 18 12 6 Canada United States Mexico Brazil Kazakhstan Russia Other Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 214 October 17, 214 18
Tight oil production will spread to nations outside of the United States and Canada over the projection tight oil production, Reference case million barrels per day 8 7 AEO214 High Resource case 6 21 225 24 5 4 3 2 5. MMbbl/d in 215 (STEO) 3.9 MMbbl/d in 214 (STEO) 2.9 MMbbl/d in 213 1 United States Canada Mexico Russia Argentina China Rest of world Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 214 October 17, 214 19
Growing U.S. oil production and rising demand in China have together made China the world s largest net oil importer net imports for China and the United States million barrels per day 1 9 U.S. net imports history Aug-14 projections 8 7 6 5 4 China net imports 3 2 1 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Note: Net oil imports are defined as total liquid fuels consumption less domestic production Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 214 October 17, 214 2
Over the IEO projection, OPEC crude and lease condensate suppliers produce an additional 14 MMbbl/d petroleum and other liquid fuels production, Reference case million barrels per day history 6 5 4 3 2 projections 43 non-opec crude and lease condensate 33 OPEC crude and lease condensate 53 46 2 1 12 other liquid fuels 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 214 October 17, 214 21
Areas of uncertainty in the outlook China s energy demand growth; particularly in transportation EIA is working with MIT and others to upgrade the structural and macroeconomic determinates of transportation demand in all regions for IEO215 Increasing global trade of natural gas and HGL in addition to oil EIA is integrating the representation of oil and natural gas supply and other hydrocarbons Global development of tight oil and shale gas resources EIA is gathering geology and production information, and conducting outreach Impact of geopolitical tensions on energy supply EIA exploring options for representing these uncertainties in the outlook October 17, 214 22
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review www.eia.gov/mer Today in Energy www.eia.gov/todayinenergy State Energy Portal www.eia.gov/state Drilling Productivity Report www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/ October 17, 214 23