Reducing GHG Emissions i From Passenger Vehicles - California's Program Tom Cackette Chief Deputy Executive Officer California Air Resources Board Govs. Summit on Alternative Transportation Fuels and Advanced Vehicles December 14, 2007
CA GHG Reduction Goals 2020: Return to 1990 levels AB32 2050: 80% reduction Exec Order Approach Regulate emissions Cap and trade program Vehicles are 35% of emissions
Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Vehicles Legislature directed CARB to adopt GHG emission standards for passenger vehicles GHG standards adopted by regulation in 2004 Effective w/ 2009 models 4 pollutants CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, HFC 22% GHG reduction by 2012 models 30% GHG reduction by 2016 models Separate standards for cars/light trucks
LDV GHG Standards Reduces Emissions Near Term * Status quo Regulation s ton/day LDV CO2 1000 700 600 500 400 300 200 100-18% -27% 2020 goal 0 1990 2000 2004 2010 2020 2030 * Fleetwide
Consumer Considerations Low GHG Passenger Vehicles Standards allow all models to comply Feasibility based on available and rapidly emerging technologies Price increases ~$300 2012 models ~$1000 2016 models Fuel savings far exceed price increase Payback period 2012 models ~ 1.6 years Payback period 2016 models ~ 2.9 years Net monthly savings to purchaser ~$20
Impacts on California Economy In 2020* $5 billion more income 53,000 more jobs Why? Lower operating cost, keeps money in state * Based on $1.74/gallon
Principal Technologies to Reduce GHG Emissions CO 2 Reduction Direct injection (DI) 5% Advanced valve control 4-16% Downsize engine with turbo 8% Electric accessories 3% Cylinder deactivation (>4 cyl.) 6% Idle stop/start 6-10% Automatic manual transmission 7% Less friction, lower drag, tires, A/C 5%
Low CO 2 Technologies In Use Today
Other Technologies w/ Low CO 2 (but not expected to be universally used) Gasoline hybrids 40-50% less CO 2 Diesel 20% less Ethanol (E85) 26% less
What s Happened Since 2004?
Some Vehicles Already Meet CA GHG Standards 2008 Mitsubishi Outlander 2015 compliant 2008 Chevy Tahoe Hybrid 2016 compliant Toyota Prius 36% below 2016 standard
Steady Roll-In of GHG Technology Does the Job 2002 Impala 34lOHV 3.4l 307 g/mi CO2 2007 Impala 3.5l OHV VVT 310 g/mi CO2 By 2016 - Add CVVL, ISG ~200 g/mi CO2 By 2012 - Downsized turbo engine DOHC, VVT, GDI, Imp A/C ~231 g/mi CO2
Hybrids in Mercedes Future 44 mpg 2009 ML450 Gasoline V6 287 g/mi CO 2 Meets 2016 Light Truck GHG Standard 51 mpg 2011 C300 Diesel 2.2 liter w/isg 199 g/mi CO2 Meets 2016 GHG Std. 2010 S300 Diesel 2.2 liter w/isg 221 g/mi CO2 Meets 2014 GHG Standard Caranddriver.com
Saturn Outlook/Chevy Equinox 270 g/mi CO 2 19% below 2016 Light Truck GHG Standard Using E85
Low Carbon Fuel Standard - Near Term Fuel suppliers reduce carbon content of fuel by 10% Provide necessary alternative fuel infrastructure Price alternative fuel to assure lower carbon content achieved One Scenario - CA Fuel % Use 10 6 Veh. 2020 2005 2020 Petroleum 96 80 21.6 Biofuel, FFV 4* 19 6.6 Electricity, it PHEV 0 1 1.2 * In 2005 biofuel is used as gasoline blend: FFV use of ethanol in CA is zero
Passenger Vehicles 2050 80% GHG Reduction Goal Now # of vehicles in CA, 10 6 25 MPG 21 Total fuel, gas. gal eq, 10 9 16 Petroleum, 10 9 gal. 15 Carbon intensity 1.0
Passenger Vehicles 2050 80% GHG Reduction Goal One Scenario - CA Now 2050 # of vehicles in CA, 10 6 25 40 MPG 21 70 Total fuel, gas. gal eq, 10 9 16 7 Petroleum, 10 9 gal. 15 2 Carbon intensity 10 1.0 038 0.38 State Alternative Fuels Plan, 2007
Passenger Vehicles 2050 80% GHG Reduction Goal CA Vehicle Mix: One Scenario Petroleum ICE 11% H2 FCV 18% Plug HEV 59% Biofuel ICE 12% State Alternative Fuels Plan, 2007
Summary Low GHG emission passenger vehicles Feasible Positive economics to consumer and state Practical: Adopt CA standards 12 states have done so Long term goal (i.e. 80% reduction) requires moving away from petroleum Low carbon fuels and vehicles that use them
Informational Websites AB 32 (comprehensive climate protection ti program) http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/cc.htm Vehicle LEV and GHG tailpipe pp standards http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/levprog/levprog.htm Low Carbon Fuel Standard http://gov.ca.gov/index.php?/executive gov/index php?/executive-order/5172/