HEARTY WELCOME TO VISIT CHINA! Tong Yanjun (Tony) Fronius Intelligent Equipment China Co., Ltd. E-MOBILITY CHINA STATUS & TRENDS SHANGHAI, OCT. 17 TH, 2018
Guten Morgen! [Zǎo Shàng Hǎo] 早上好 2
LITTLE ABOUT US FRONIUS is an Austrian company with three business units, our China Headquarter is located in Shanghai Industrial Park of Robotics.
EV HISTORY 19 TH CENTURY People often call Electric Vehicles as New Energy Vehicles, in reality, EV is not NEW, it came to the world earlier than internal-combustion engine vehicles in the 19 th century. 4 Fronius International GmbH / first name last name / Titel of presentation / xx.xx.20xx - v02
EV HISTORY 20 TH CENTURY FIAT in 1994 EV1 by GM in 1996 Ranger EV by FORD in 1998 FIAT in 1994 Cinquecento Elettra by FIAT Qi by Takara CitiCar by Vanguard Sebring in 1973 YF1100 the first HEV of China in 1988 5 The first electric bus of China in 1998 The first Fuel Cell car of China by Tongji University in 2003 Fronius International GmbH / first name last name / Titel of presentation / xx.xx.20xx - v02
TILL TODAY EV (Mainly including BEV and PHEV) Magic word?
Is it reality!
ELECTRIC MOBILITY THE OVER VIEW
IT IS IRREVERSIBLE REALITY
REFERENCES FROM USA (TESLA) 116 CMT Machines & 65 Delta Spot Systems are working in TESLA
ALL EV FLOWERS BLOOM TOGETHER Many others 11
EV MARKET SHARE COUNTRY WISE China 1.1% 17.7% 25.6% 49.5% Europe N America South Korea 1,990,000 EV (including 1,620,000 BEV) ARE ON ROADS OF CHINA as of Jun. 2018! Data Source: Traffic Management Bureau, Ministry of Public Security
CHINA EV INDUSTRY OVERVIEW 2017 China EV Annual Production Volume (thousand units) Including BEV and PHEV 1,560 2,000 FAST GROWTH 51% 1,200 Passenger BEV Commercial BEV Passenger PHEV Commercial PHEV 379 36% 54% 517 794 Commercial PHEV Commercial 2% BEV 24% 18 84 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E Passenger PHEV 14% Passenger BEV 60% Passenger BEV Passenger PHEV Commercial BEV Commercial PHEV Source: CAAM, MIIT Fronius International GmbH / first name last name / Titel of presentation / xx.xx.20xx - v02
VEHICLES & EV PRODUCTION ROADMAP PLANNED BY CHINA GOVERNMENT IN 2016 Year 2030 Year 2025 Year 2020 * 30,000,000 UNITS OF VEHICLES * INCL. NEV 7-10% UP TO 3,000,000 UNITS * 35,000,000 UNITS OF VEHICLES * INCL. NEV 15-20% UP TO 7,000,00 UNITS * 38,000,000 UNITS OF VEHICLES * INCL. NEV 40-50% UP TO 19,000,000 UNITS DATA SOURCE: SAE-CHINA 14 Fronius International GmbH / Umesh / E-Mobility / Nov 2017- v03
CHINA EV INDUSTRY SWOT ANALYSIS Strength / Government pushing / Natural resources / Developed talent pool and cash pool for investment Weakness / Lack of core technology / Inadequate infrastructure / Capability of resource integration Opportunity / Increasing oil price / Commitment to reduce emission / Huge domestic market Threat / Immature EV models VS mature traditional car models / Still high manufacturing costs / Battery mileage range and safety 15 Fronius International GmbH / first name last name / Titel of presentation / xx.xx.20xx - v02
TWh CHINA EV BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT POSITIVE SIDE 1. Rich raw material resources of making EV Lithium Reserves Neodymium Reserves 20% 2. Sufficient electric grid > 6,500 TWh in 2017 But ~70% is generated from coal now 7,000 6,000 51% 49% 5,000 80% 4,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 China Rest of world China Rest of world Gross electricity production Gross electricity consumption 3. Huge market and diversified customers demands 4.Government policies to motivate OEMs to build EV and consumers to buy EV 16 Fronius International GmbH / first name last name / Titel of presentation / xx.xx.20xx - v02
CHINA EV BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT NEGATIVE SIDE 1. Increasing raw material cost and labor cost, low RoI at the initial stage of making small-volume EV caused higher cost of EV. 2. Government subsidies is still the main driving force of selling / buying EV how come once it is lower and cancelled till 2020 3. Consumers confidence of buying and driving EV safety, mileage, charging, maintenance etc.. 4. Safety issues of Li-ion batteries 17 Fronius International GmbH / first name last name / Titel of presentation / xx.xx.20xx - v02
CHINESE GOVERNMENT POLICY SUPPORT Production Purchase Usage / China has set the target of having 5 million NEVs on the road by 2020 according to the 13 th five year plan / Dual Credit policy to push automakers to expand NEV production / Fiscal support for NEV R&D projects: 0.9 billion RMB in 2018 / Exempt NEVs from 10% purchase tax / Fiscal subsidies: the national and local governments had spent about 100 billion RMB on NEV subsidies in 2016 and 2017 / Promote NEV taxi and NEV bus / At least 50% of government cars should be NEVs by 2020 / Free NEV license plate / No traffic restriction / Preferential parking policies / 4.8 million charging poles will be built by 2020 18 Fronius International GmbH / first name last name / Titel of presentation / xx.xx.20xx - v02
ARE WE READY TO ADOPT THE EV BUSINESS? Technology Car Body Battery Management System Grid and Charging Stations Infrastructure Production Standard industry Alliance Industry Standard Quality Standard R&D and Operation talents Skilled Resources
KEY FACTORS - CHINA EV DEVELOPMENT ROADMAP New Material and Light-Weighting HSS / Al / Mg / Carbon Fibre Forming / Joining technology / Structure Material cost & fabrication cost Weight Reduction compared with that of 2015 2020 2025 2030 10% lower 20% lower 35% lower High Strength Steel >600MPa: 50% per car Third generation automotive steel: 30% > 2000MPa used Aluminum >190kg / car 250kg / car 350kg / car Magnesium >15kg / car > 25kg / car >45kg / car Carbon fibre reinforced composite Used with certain weight Cost down by 50% compared with that of 2015 Weight > 2% per car Further cost down by 50% Weight > 5% Further cost down by 50% 20 DATA SOURCE: SAE-CHINA
COMPLETE LIGHT WEIGHT BODY & CHASSIS SYSTEM In order to increase the efficiency of the Vehicle, the weight of the Body need to be reduced. New Materials like Aluminium & High strength steel will be more in use How?
Wh/kg KM of one charge KEY FACTORS - CHINA EV DEVELOPMENT ROADMAP Power Battery Energy density / Reliability / Mileage range / Life Joining technology for battery pack Cost per Wh Energy Density of Cell (Wh/kg) Target of Mileage Range (km) 600 500 400 300 200 350 200 400 250 500 300 600 500 400 300 200 300 400 500 100 100 0 Y2020 Y2025 Y2030 BEV PHEV 0 Y2020 Y2025 Y2030 坐标轴标题 22 It was 110Wh/kg as of July 2016 DATA SOURCE: SAE-CHINA
NEWER COMPONENTS IN PLACE Battery Box Manufacturing requires Light Weighting with the supreme quality to achieve the reliable performance
Pieces KEY FACTORS - CHINA EV DEVELOPMENT ROADMAP Charging Infrastructure Charging Rate Convenience and Availability of charging stations Standardization of charging piles Growth target of Charging Infrastructure 90,000,000 80,000,000 80,000,000 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 3,600 57,000 12,000 36,000 48,000 - Y2015 Y2020 Y2025 Y2030 No.of Charging Stations 3,600 12,000 36,000 48,000 No.of Charging Piles 57,000 5,000,000 20,000,000 80,000,000 No.of Charging Stations No.of Charging Piles 24 DATA SOURCE: SAE-CHINA
KEY FACTORS - CHINA EV DEVELOPMENT ROADMAP Fuel Cell Vehicles Hydrogen cell technology Production Target: 5000pcs in Y2020, 50,000pcs in Y2025, 1,000,000pcs in Y2030 Intelligent Connected Vehicles Environment Perception /Obstacle Detection & Avoidance / Navigation Control / Information Communication / Path Plan / Passenger Safety / Human-machine Communication / Condition Monitoring / Accommodating & Management 25 Sales Channels Brand Name Promotion Experience Center + Direct Sales? Online Sales? Traditional 4S Shop? Environmental Geography Coverage awareness and Technology Convenience? / Intelligent Decision-Making Technology / Big How DATA to make Technology 4S Shop of certain brand survive when EV Population is small? Pilotless Drive Technology
Summary: Making a car is easy Making a good car is difficult Making good cars constantly is very difficult EV, is even more
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