Environmentally Friendly Vehicles: Initiatives in the United States Overview United States Michael P. Walsh Consultant Tokyo, Japan March 1, 24 United States Program Evolution of Emissions Standards CAFÉ Program Other California Emission Reduction Strategy Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Regulation Reducing Climate Change Emissions The California Fuel Cell Partnership Regulation Five Government Strategies to Reach Environmentally Friendly Vehicle Goals CFR Technology R&D Market Incentives 15% 1% 5% New Car Emissions Standards in the US HC CO PM NOx Infrastructure Investment Public Education % Pre- Control 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999 HC 1
Growth Areas and Emissions Trends in the US (197-2) 2% 15% 158% 143% 1% 5% 2% 45% 36% % -5% -25% -43% -44% -1% -88% -98% -15% CO NOx VOC SO2 PM Pb GDP Energy Consumption VMT Population EPA 454/K-1-2 September 21 NOx Standards (grams/mile) US Tier 2 Standards Cars/LDT1/2 LDT3/4 Combined 1.4 1.2 1.8.6.4.2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 Model Year The Same Standards Apply To Light Duty Diesel & Gasoline Fueled Vehicles The US Program To Improve Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards For New Cars & Light Trucks Labels on New Vehicles Gas Guzzler Taxes Partnership For A New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV); Freedom Car Tax Incentives Regulation CFR 2
Miles Per Gallon Fuel Economy Improvements in the US 3 25 2 15 1 5 Light Duty Vehicles Light Duty Trucks Regulation 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 CFR National Clean Cities Program.. A voluntary, locally based government industry partnership program Currently 77 Active Cities Over 4,4 Stakeholders 96 million gallons of petroleum displaced per year 19, metric tons of emissions reduced per year Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFVs)) in the U.S. Los Angeles 1955: Unbearable air and no solutions. Alternative Fuel Vehicles 11, CNG vehicles 1,4 Electric vehicles 269, Propane vehicles Alternative Fuel Refueling Stations 1,28 Natural gas stations 592 Electric rechargers 3,353 Propane stations 24 E85 stations Approximately 43 light-duty models available 1 medium/heavy-duty duty models available 3
g/mile NMVOC + NOx Evolution of California Auto Controls (Implementation: 1963 1993) 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1963 Positive Crankcase Ventilation Exhaust Standards EGR Oxidation Catalyst Three Way Catalyst On-Board Computer 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 Advanced Computer Fuel Injection O 2 Sensor Phase 1 Gasoline 1989 1991 1993 Days Exceeding Standard 2 15 1 5 Air Quality Trends in Los Angeles O T d Days Exceeding Federal Ozone Standard 1976 1977 1978 1979 198 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 Maximum Ozone Concentration.5.45.4.35.3.25.2.15.1.5 Maximum Concentration Air Pollution Remains Widespread Days Over State Ozone Standard Days Over State PM1 Standard g/mile HC + NOx.7.6.5.4.3.2 Evolution of ARB Auto Controls Implementation: 1994-21 Low Emission Vehicle I Cleaner Gasoline Low Emission Vehicle II Goal:Zero Based on 2 Monitoring Data.1-5 Days 6-5 Days 5-1 Days >1 Days 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 4
ZEV Regulation Restructured in 23 for More Flexibility Path 1: Near-Zero Emission Conventional Vehicles 1 % Mandate > - 2 % Battery Electric H2 Fuel Cell (Path 3) 6 % Near-Zero Conventional Vehicles (Path 1) 2-2 4 % Clean Hybrids (Path 2) Near zero exhaust emissions Zero evaporative emissions 15 year/15, mile warranty On-board diagnostics 14, sales in 23 2, sales in 24 Path 2: Hybrid Electric Vehicles Hybrid Electric Vehicles Toyota Prius Hybrid Three models now available More models coming ~ 2, sales expected in 25 ZEV enabling technology: electric drive train batteries power management Lexus 4 H Hybrid (coming soon) Honda Civic Hybrid 5
Incentives for Near-Zero Emission Hybrid Electric Vehicles Path 3: Battery Electric and Fuel Cell Vehicles Extra regulatory incentives (credits) encourage strong hybridization Incentives based on: system voltage power output of the electric motor Short term incentives for 42-volt systems Full size battery electric Neighborhood electric Fuel cell Full-Sized Battery Electric Vehicles Neighborhood Electric Vehicles Over 2,5 sold or leased Cost and range issues shifts focus: smaller vehicles fuel cells 25 mph top speed limited range 2-4 passengers Over 8, sold or leased in response to ZEV regulation 6
Fuel Cell Vehicles Promising technology Significant cost, manufacturing and performance challenges Volume production expected 21 or later 12 1 8 6 4 ZEV Hybrids Near-Zero Vehicle Production Scenario (example) 2 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Model Year Hybrid Electric Vehicle Forecast For The US Some of the infrared radiation passes through the atmosphere Greenhouse Gas Effect Some infrared radiation is absorbed and re-emitted in all directions by GHG The effect is to warm Earth 6 544 GHGs Thousands 5 4 3 2 1 48 1 35 425 Most radiation is absorbed by the Earth and makes it warm 7% radiation passes through the clear atmosphere Earth and atmosphere reflect 3% 23 24 26 28 213 Source: J.D. Powers & Associates 7
Climate Change is Also a Major Concern for California Climate Changes Temperature Increase Precipitation Patterns and Extremes Sea Level Rise Health Air Quality - Respiratory Illness Weather-related Mortality Infectious and Tropical Diseases Agriculture Crop Yields Irrigation Demands Forests Forest Composition Geographic Range of Forests Forest Health and Productivity Water Resources Water Supply Water Quality Competition for Water Coastal Areas Erosion of Beaches Inundation of Coastal Wetlands Additional Costs to Protect Coastal Communities Species and Natural Areas Loss of Habitat and Species Ozone (ppm).3.25 Source: Air Resources Board, 2 Hotter Days Lead to Higher Emissions and More Smog hlos Angeles.2 Ozone Levels (1995-1998).15 h1 warmest.1 California Ozone Standard years of the last century.5 all occurred within the last. 15 years. 4 6 8 1 12 Temperature ( o F) Transportation is California s Largest Source of CO 2 Transportation 58% Commercial 4% Electricity Generation 16% Industrial 13% Residential 9% Carbon Dioxide Emissions Intensities California and Selected Countries - 1995 Tons of CO2 per Person 25 2 15 1 5 France Sweden Netherlands Australia Denmark Germany California Italy Spain United Kingdom Portugal Greece United States Canada.1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9 Tons of CO2 per Thousand 1995 U.S. Dollars Source: Draft Greenhouse Gas Inventory Update, California Energy Commission, 21 8
AB 1493 General Requirements By January 1, 25 Board to adopt regulations that achieve maximum feasible and cost-effective reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles Report to Legislature and Governor by January 1, 25 Regulations may not take effect prior to January 1, 26 Regulations apply only to 29 and later model years In Developing Regulations Consider technical feasibility Consider impact on economy of state Provide flexibility as to means of compliance Conduct public workshops Communities with significant exposure to air contaminants, including communities with minority or low-income populations Grant credit for early reductions Regulations Shall Not Require Fees or taxes on vehicle, fuel or VMT Ban on sale of any vehicle category Reduction in vehicle weight Limitation on or reduction of speed limit Limitation on or reduction of VMT Climate Change Regulation Regulations will provide flexibility, not mandate specific technology Hybrid vehicles will compete with other emerging technologies Hybrid s role will depend on developments in conventional and fuel cell technology - but increased sales seems certain 9
Hybrid Electric Drive Diesel Engines Toyota Prius 29% CO 2 reduction compared to comparable conventional vehicle Honda Civic 25% CO 2 reduction compared to non-hybrid model Diesel engines can provide substantial CO 2 reductions compared to their gasoline counterparts. Diesels face a significant challenge in meeting California s NOx emission requirements Long-Term Vision The ultimate goal remains - zeroemission technology Must be energy-efficient; reduced climate impact California is taking the necessary steps now Advanced Low Emissions Technologies Will Play A Critical Role Substantially Reduce Conventional Urban Pollutants Reduce Oil Consumption Through High Efficiency Major Challenges: Cost Vehicle Availability 1
Issues Require a Public Policy Response 1 Large, heavily populated urban areas with a developed or developing motor vehicle population suffer or will suffer from smog, particulate matter and toxic air pollution with serious public health impacts. Global warming is real, and action to reduce warming gases to or below current levels will need to be taken. Motor vehicles are a major source of warming gases. Issues Requiring a Public Policy Response 2 Petroleum production will peak and begin to decline, and alternative motor vehicle power sources will need to be developed. Advanced motor vehicle technologies can and should play an important role in addressing these issues. Current Technology: Good But Not Enough 1 Gasoline cars: 95+% reduction of smog emissions, but so many vehicles in developed countries this is not enough. Diesel cars: PM/NOx controls lag gasoline, but efforts to catch up underway. Diesel trucks/equipment: 6-8% reduction of NOx/PM. Current Technology: Good But Not Enough 2 Motorcycles/three wheelers: -5% HC reductions, still many 2-strokes with very high emissions. Other gasoline engines (e.g. small engines) 5+% HC reductions = 197s level of car pollution control technology. Big diesels (ships, trains, + jet aircraft) to 5% NOx/PM reductions. 11
Current Technology: Good But Not Enough 3 Limited alternative fuel use (some NG buses/medium trucks, a few electric vehicles) Petroleum supply problems viewed as a distant problem. Improvements to reduce warming gases modest at best. Improvements mainly go to improve performance, overcome increased weight, or More diesel at the expense of urban smog. Solutions: Urban Smog Cars need to achieve zero and near-zero life cycle emissions. Existing and emerging technologies can achieve this goal. All diesels should use NOx /PM after-treatment and cleaner fuel (essential) for 95+% emission reduction. Zero-emission alternatives should be used wherever possible, especially in densely populated areas. Solutions: Greenhouse Gases Ensure that technology improvements increase efficiency not power (e.g. more stringent fuel economy standards). Rapidly expand of use of hybrid electric drive-trains (~5% CO 2 reduction). Solutions: Fuel Diversity Increase natural gas use in urban fleets. Use gas-to-liquids. Develop hydrogen infrastructure to support fuel cell commercialization. Develop small car BEV market and integrate with mass transit (where electricity production is clean, and transit under-developed). Accelerate commercialization of fuel cell engines for a variety of vehicle types. 12
Integrating Solutions Solutions addressing all three goals (smog, warming, fuel diversity) complement each other and should be implemented in a coordinated manner. Climate Change 1.2 1..8.6.4.2 Vehicle/Fuel Pathways Fuel Cells, Batteries 27.5 mpg LEVII Conventional Hybrids Gasoline Diesel Methanol Ethanol Hydrogen Electricity...2.4.6.8 1. 1.2 1.4 Air Quality California Fuel Cell Partnership Fuel Infrastructure Promotes fuel cell vehicle commercialization Infrastructure Safety Public Education Liquid H 2 storage Delivers gaseous hydrogen at two pressures: 36 psi & 5 psi Fill time < 4 minutes 24+ fueling events 13
Fuel Cell Vehicles - Today 41 cars Over 122, miles 5,+ riders/drivers 14