H 2 Dec 10, 2015 www.steps.ucdavis.edu
The potential for low-carbon vehicles around the world Lew Fulton, Gil Tal, Aria Berliner, Tom Turrentine This project is developing a new approach to projecting PEV vehicle market penetration around the world, and create a low and high scenario for PEV sales through 2030 We will also work with the IEA to estimate overall energy use/ghg impacts of these PEV scenarios Draft report by early 2016 2
Our idea Is not to predict or forecast the sales of PEVs, but explore what factors may matter in determining the trajectory, such as: Consumer awareness, interest in different countries Rate of new model appearance; manufacturer investments in new models/facilities and production ramp-up rates The size and nature of different market segments in different countries, where PEVs are likely to appear, and how this may evolve Diffusion rates of models across countries Policy overlays the PEV-relevant policies in major markets and their impacts on market development We are developing a model to combine these concepts into a quantitative framework that allows us to project PEV sales to 2030, using a scenario approach 3
COP Announcement Paris Declaration on E-mobility Released at COP 21, December 5 2015 Signed by UN Agencies, IEA and many governments Commits to more than 100 million electric-driven cars on the worlds roads by 2030 as part of achieving a 2-degree target. IEA roughly estimates that electric vehicle sales will need to be 25% (~30 million) world wide in 2030 to achieve this target. Is this possible? Plausible? What would be needed to achieve such a target? 4
What does achieving the Paris Declaration targets look like? One possible way: 100 models selling 300k/yr each in 2030 350 60 300 50 250 40 200 30 150 20 100 50 10 0 2015 2015 2016 2020 2017 2018 2025 2019 2020 2030 models sales/model (000) (000) 5
Zooming in to the next 5 years About 3 new models per year, and 6000 units increase in world average each year 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 models sales/model (000) 6
Countries are different 2015 Sales by market class vary considerably by major market 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% USA Germany France Japan India Small car Medium Car Large car SUV Other 7
USA: BEVs and PHEVs hard to spot as market share by market class Sales, Millions 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Gas/Diesel/Other Hybrid BEV PHEV 8
PEVs v conventional models available by market class 9
In USA, 10 models accounted for vast majority of PEV sales, all with MSRP $29,000 or above 2013 Vehicle MSRP Market Share Volt $ 34,185 0.95% Leaf $ 28,800 0.94% Model S $ 57,400 4.05% Prius PHEV $ 29,990 0.49% C-Max $ 32,920 0.30% Fusion Energi $ 34,700 0.24% Fiat 500e $ 31,800 1.29% Ford Focus Electric $ 35,170 0.07% Rav4 EV $ 49,800 0.06% i-miev $ 29,125 0.82% 10
2,000,000 2013 US Market by Segment and Price 110.0% 1,800,000 99.7% 97.8% 92.6% 100.0% 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 82.3% 71.4% 56.7% 46.2% 36.6% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 28.8% 30.0% 23.8% 20.0% 18.1% 13.0% 10.4% 9.0% 10.0% 7.3% 5.6% 3.8% 2.7% 1.7% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% AB C D EF Small SUV SUV Large SUV pick-up Other Share of new veh sale
The Impact of $1000 price Change on the Potential Market 1,000,000 99.5% 98.0% 6.47% (about 377,000 vehicles) 1,200,000 1.55% 90.1% (about 90,000 vehicles) 0.06% (about 260 vehicles) 120% 100% 800,000 73.6% 80% 600,000 54.4% 60% 400,000 36.3% 40% 200,000 25.4% 18.7% 12.7% 10.0% 5.5% 20% 0 2.1% 1.6% 1.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0%
Specific model sales as a share of segment 13
PEV sales by price category C class cars 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 USA 2013 - Original Price USA 2013 - Original Price (EVs) 14
PEV sales by price category C class cars 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 USA 2013 - With Incentives USA 2013 - With Incentives - Evs 15
Why is most of the PEV market (80%) in the C Segment? AB segment price is to low Hybrid market is dominated by the Prius Consumer awareness? The correlation between the ZEV mandate and the federal incentives ZEV mandate Range based regulation favors light/small vehicles 100 miles and 200 miles thresholds Federal tax credit Battery size based credit 5kWh-17kWh range
HEV and PEV shares vary by country 80% Share of Hybrid and Electric vehicles within the C Segment (2013) 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% JAPAN FRANCE GERMANY USA INDIA Hybrid Share PHEV/BEV Share 17
How will car markets evolve? According to IEA, Cars remain a high share of LDV sales into the future, except in North America 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacific Non OECD WORLD 18
How will car markets evolve? Current shares of plug-in models by market class and country 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Small car Medium Car Large car SUV Other USA Germany France Japan India 19
How will car markets evolve? One possible mix of models in 2030 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Small car Medium Car Large car SUV Other USA Germany France Japan India 20
Next steps Develop low and high scenarios for PEV global/regional sales by country, PEV type, through 2030 Feed this into IEA Mobility Model to generate impacts in terms of electricity use, other energy use, CO2 emissions across transport. Might use this model also to apply diffusion to other countries beyond the major markets we characterize in our main study Show the contribution of PEVs through 2030, describe what factors will be most important, how changes in policy could change trajectory Draft report Spring 2016 21