The Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 Todd Onderdonk June 213 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
Energy Outlook Development countries 15 demand sectors 2 fuel types technology & policy
Energy Use Evolves Over Time Global Percent Mix of Fuels Quadrillion BTUs 7 Other Renewables 6 Nuclear Hydro 5 Gas 4 3 Oil 2 Coal 18 185 19 195 2 24 Biomass Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (18-196)
Population Trends Impact Energy Use World Population Billions of people
Economic Growth Drives Energy Demand GDP Trillion 25$ 125 Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs 125 21-24 AAGR % 21-24 AAGR % World 2.8% Other Non 3.9% World 1.% Energy Saved ~5 75 China 5.6% 75 5 Other 1.8% 5 25 25 United States 2.3% 2 22 24 2 22 24
Electricity Generation Leads Growth Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs 3 24 25 225 Electricity Demand 2 21 15 5 Electricity Generation Industrial Transportation Res/Comm
Transportation
Transportation Demand Sector Demand MBDOE 75 6 Rail Marine Demand by Region MBDOE 3 25 4 45 Aviation 2 25 3 Heavy Duty 15 1 1 15 Light Duty 5 2 22 24 AP NA Europe LA ME ROW
Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes Powertrain Technology Millions of Vehicles 5 21 4 3 2 Advanced* CNG LPG Conv. Diesel Conv. Gasoline North America Europe Other China India Middle East Latin America Other Non *Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles
Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes Powertrain Technology Millions of Vehicles 5 225 4 3 2 Advanced* CNG LPG Conv. Diesel Conv. Gasoline North America Europe Other China India Middle East Latin America Other Non *Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles
Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes Powertrain Technology Millions of Vehicles 5 24 4 3 2 PHV/EV Full Hybrid CNG LPG Diesel Conv Mogas Conv North America Europe Other China India Middle East Latin America Other Non *Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles
U.S. Transportation Demand & Fleet Shift Transportation MBDOE 15 1 Rail Marine Aviation Heavy Duty Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Million Cars 3 25 2 15 CNG/LPG PHV/EV Hybrid Conv. Diesel 5 Light Duty 5 Conv. Gasoline 2 21 22 23 24 2 21 22 23 24
Gas Into Transportation By Sector BCFD 18 24 by Region BCFD 1 15 Rail 8 12 9 6 Marine Heavy Duty 6 4 3 2 Light Duty 2 21 22 23 24 AP NA LA ME EU RC AF
Transportation Fuel Demand Shifts to Diesel Non MBDOE MBDOE 45 45 Other Natural Gas 3 3 Fuel Oil Jet Fuel Biodiesel Diesel 15 15 Ethanol Gasoline 2 22 24 2 22 24
Refining Converts Oil Into Many Products Refining: Link between crude oil production and products demand LPG / Propane Chemicals feed Gasoline Refinery Aviation fuels Crude Oil Input Gasoline Diesel Fuel oil Diesel Refinery Lubes/Other Wax/Asphalt Source: U.S. Department of Labor
Industrial Energy Demand By Region Quadrillion BTUs 25 By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs 25 2 Rest of Non 2 Market Heat Electricity Renewables 15 India 15 Coal China Gas 5 5 Oil 2 22 24 2 22 24
Electricity generation
Electricity Demand by Region Non Thousand TWh Thousand TWh 25 25 2 Russia/Caspian Southeast Asia Other Non 2 15 15 Middle East 1 Africa India 1 Other Europe 5 China 5 North America 2 22 24 2 22 24
Economic Choices for U.S. Electricity Baseload, Startup 23 212 cents/kwh 16 $6/ton of CO 2 12 Reliability Cost 8 4 $/ton Coal Gas Nuclear Onshore Wind* Utility Solar PV* *Wind and solar exclude costs for integration, backup capacity and additional transmission
U.S. Changing Electricity Generation Fuel Mix Electricity Generation Quadrillion BTUs 4 3 Wind & Solar Other Renewables Nuclear Growth versus 21 by Fuel Quadrillion BTUs 15 1 5 Electricity Generation CO 2 Emissions Billion Tons 2.5 2. 1.5 2 Coal -5 1. 1 Gas -1.5 Oil 21 22 23 24-15 '15 '2 '25 '3 '35 '4. 21 22 23 24
United States Energy Demand and Supply By Sector Quadrillion BTUs By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs 8 Res/Comm Industrial 8 Other Renewables Biomass Nuclear 6 6 Coal 4 Electricity Generation 4 Gas 2 Transportation 2 Oil 2 21 22 23 24 2 21 22 23 24
Tale of Two Worlds Non Quadrillion BTUs 5 4 Other Renewables Biomass Nuclear Quadrillion BTUs 5 4 3 Coal 3 2 Gas 2 Oil 2 22 24 2 22 24
CO 2 Emissions Plateau By Region Billion Tons 4 Emissions per Capita Tons per Person 2 3 Rest of Non 15 2 India 1 1 China 5 1 25 4 2 22 24 China India U.S. Europe
Energy Mix Continues to Evolve Quadrillion BTUs 225 2.8% 24 1.7% Average Growth / Yr. 21-24 175 15 21 -.1% 1.% 125 75 5 2.4%.4% 25 5.8% 1.8% Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Solar / Wind / Biofuels Hydro / Geo
Supply
Remaining Oil Resource Crude and Condensate (BBO) ~1, ~1, ~1, ~ Russia/Caspian Europe North America ~65 Middle East ~15 ~4,3 ~2 Asia Pacific Latin America Africa Global Source: IEA
Liquids Supply Supply by Type MBDOE 12 Biofuels Other Liquids Resource* TBO 6 NGLs 5 8 Oil Sands Tight Oil Deepwater 4 Remaining Resource 6 3 4 2 Conventional Crude & Condensate 2 1 Cumulative Production 2 21 22 23 24 24 * Source: IEA
North America Liquids Supply Grows North America Liquids Supply and Demand MBDOE 3 25 Liquids Demand 2 Net Imports 9 8 3 Canadian Oil Sands Biofuels 15 Other Petroleum 1 5 Crude & Condensate 198 199 2 21 22 23 24
Remaining Global Gas Resource Over 2 years coverage at current demand 6.6 4. 1.6 4.8 North America Europe Russia/ Caspian* 4.8 TCF 3 25 2 Unconventional 2.8 3.1 Middle East Asia Pacific 15 1 5 Conventional Latin America Africa World Source: IEA; *Includes Europe Non
Natural Gas Supply and Demand Shifts North America Gas Supply BCFD 12 Global Gas Supply BCFD 6 LNG 5 Rest of World Unconventional 8 4 North America Unconventional 6 Local Unconventional 3 4 2 Rest of World Conventional 2 Local Conventional 21 225 24 North America Conventional 21 225 24
North America Energy Balance Quadrillion BTUs 5 4 3 Net Imports Oil Net Exports 2 Regional Supply 1 21 225 24 5 Gas 4 3 Net Exports Total Energy Balance 125 75 5 Net Imports Net Exports Regional Supply 2 Regional Supply 1 21 225 24 25 21 225 24
Regional Energy Trends Evolve By Region Percent of World Total North America 8 6 Europe Russia/Caspian China 4 Other AP 2 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 Africa Middle East Latin America
Energy Use Evolves Over Time Global Percent Mix of Fuels Percent Other Renewables 8 Nuclear Hydro Gas 6 4 Oil 2 Coal 18 185 19 195 2 24 Biomass Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (18-196)
Conclusions