Future perspectives for electric mobility Martine Uyterlinde ECN Policy Studies IAEE Vienna, Sept 9, 2009 www.ecn.nl
Main messages The CO 2 emission reduction from electric vehicles can be substantial - depending on the method of electricity generation Electric vehicles need innovation policy, to be coordinated with power sector The obvious competitor: a hydrogen-fuelled electric (fuel cell) vehicle 2
3 The challenge
Policy options - road transport 1. Reduce transport demand 2. Improve driving behaviour 3. Improve vehicle efficiency 4. Use low carbon fuels extra innovation? Biofuels Hydrogen in fuel cell cars Electric cars and plug-ins Intelligent Transport Systems 4
Our future car: PHEV, EV or H2FC? ICE (Green) electricity (bio) fuel HEV PHEV E-motor EV H2FC FC ICE: internal combustion engine; FC: fuel cell; HEV: hybrid-electric vehicle; PHEV: plug-in hybrid-electric vehicle; EV: electric vehicle; H2FC: hydrogen fuel cell vehicle Hydrogen Reduction of CO 2 and local emissions 5
Electric and hybrid vehicles Recent developments: - Better batteries - Hybrid technology - Many initiatives; new market actors - Controlled charging may buffer peaks of renewable energy - Preferential charging - Vehicle-to-grid However - Batteries still heavy and expensive - Charging time and driving range remain challenges - No mass production before 2015 6
7 New market actors
x mln 9 8 A market penetration scenario Vehicle stock in NL 7 6 5 4 3 Improved battery technology (cost, weight, range) Charging infrastructure set up Hybrid strong breakthrough via CO 2 standards in EU Further price decreases Trust in battery technology Solutions driving range (fast charging, battery swaps) Further price decreases 2 1 NGO target: 1 mln EV in 2020 0 Tot 2020 2020 2030 2040 Elektrisch All-electricvervoer PHEV Hybride Benzine/Diesel/LPG Petrol/Diesel/LPG 8
CO 2 emissions depend on electricity generating mix Marginal or average generating mix? Moment of charging! Three scenarios: - Basis: 500 g/kwh in 2020 -> 300 in 2040 (RES & CCS) - Coal: 600 g/kwh - RES-E: 100 g/kwh In 2040: 5-25% reduction [Mton] 45 40 35 30 25 20 Other innovations EV and PHEV 15 Historische Historical data data Referentiescenario Reference 10 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 5 Scenario 3 Scenario 33 with met 100 100 g/kwh g/kwh Scenario 33 with met 600 600 g/kwh 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 9
10 Impact on air quality is limited
Where are we in the transition? Market share Each phase requires other policy measures Commercialisation R&D Demonstration EV PHEV H2FC Early markets 1 st gen Biofuels HEV CNG 2 nd gen Biofuels/SNG Time 11
Policy approaches need to Take account of current stage of technology development: - Move from demonstration stage to early markets - Make sure that learning effects are harvested to prevent early disappointments Ensure parallel development in power sector - Grid to accommodate high penetration of EV - Reap additional benefit of better integration of renewables - Ensure that increased penetration of EV leads to incentive for producers to install additional RES-E capacity 12
Comparing the obvious competitors Both hydrogen and electric vehicles offer: - Diversification - Zero direct emissions - Efficiency gain compared to ICE Many differences 13
Comparing the obvious competitors Hydrogen Both hydrogen and electric vehicles offer: - Diversification Energy density (kwh/kg) Consumer acceptance - Zero direct emissions - Efficiency gain compared to ICE predecessor Many differences Electricity 1,7 0,13 Refuel in minutes; Long recharge time Perception less safe? Driving range Plug-in hybrid Other mobility patterns? Scarce resource Platina Lithium for both System innovation Production,storage and required distribution Distribution (strengthening existing grid) New actors Oil companies Electricity suppliers New business concepts Production method CCS essential Renewables Fossil fuels + CCS Diesel: 12 14
Are electric vehicles the future of passenger transport? Yes, if future passenger transport is to be low carbon and flexible in resources Whether it will be BEV, PHEV or H2FC is not clear - Still in the demonstration phase - Require a system innovation The CO 2 emission reduction from electric vehicles can be substantial - Strongly dependent on the method of electricity generation Coordinated policy approaches needed for a balanced development in transport and power sector 15
16 Thank you!