Sales Persevere Despite Shutdown and Artic Blast Although January 2019 light-vehicle sales were 1% less than January 2018, the month s performance is proof neither a government shutdown or an apocalyptic blast of artic air will stop people from buying a new set of wheels. The 1.15 million units sold calculates to a SAAR (seasonally adjusted, annualized rate) of 16.9 million, which is a reasonable outcome given that January is always one of the slowest months for light-vehicle sales. In addition, the average incentive per vehicle decreased for the 7th consecutive month, to $3,720. Passenger-vehicle sales continued to decline, or -4% for the month, but light-truck sales didn t match its long robust run, increasing just 0.3%. The trend lines were also important measures, as January was the 11th consecutive month FCA increase sales compared to the same month a year earlier while Toyota recorded its 8th negative month during the last 10. MAJOR AUTOMAKERS US SALES PERFORMANCE, JANUARY 2019 IN THE BLACK PERCENT IN THE RED PERCENT Ford Motor Co. +7.10% Nissan/ Mitsubishi -19.70% Subaru +3.90% Mercedes-Benz -13.80% Hyundai-Kia +3.30% General Motors* -6.90% FCA (Fiat Chrysler Automobiles) +2.50% Toyota -6.60% American Honda +1.50% Volkswagen -3.00% Automotive News, February 2019 *estimate Industry Green Lights and Red Lights Some industry news stories are flashing red while others are greenlighted and on the move. Tesla was the best-selling luxury vehicle in the US during Q4 2018. The company delivered more than 63,000 units in North America during 2018, and forecasts worldwide deliveries of 360,000 to 400,000 units during 2019. Thousands of salaried employees at General Motors will be seeing red as they start to receive pink slips the first Monday of February. A total of 2,250 have already accepted voluntary buyouts and another 1,500 whitecollar contractor positions will be eliminated, leaving a remainder of 4,250 who will lose their jobs during the next weeks. Vehicle loans from US credit unions increased 10.8% through Q3 2018, to a total of $365.3 billion. New vehicle loans were $145.5 billion of the total, increasing 12.5% YOY while used-vehicle loans totaled $219.7 billion, a 9.8% YOY increase. Despite US dealerships selling record numbers of lightvehicles during the last few years, their salespeople are next to last on Gallup s 2018 survey of various professions based on their perceived honesty and ethical standards. Car salespeople received a 44% low/ very low rating, which only members of the US Congress surpassed, with a 58% rating. 1
MARKETING FORWARD The Challenge of Marketing SUVs In a late January 2019 MediaVillage article, Jim Motavalli, a longtime auto-industry commentator and author, cites the biggest challenge of marketing SUVs is that they all look the same, essentially a box on wheels with a few appurtenances strategically placed in an attempt to hide the box. Americans appear to love their boxes on wheels, however, as 34 of 115 models recorded double-digit sales gains YOY for 2018. YouGuv s 2018 report, Middle of the Road, described those who are in the market to buy an SUV. 23% are 35 44, or the youngest members of Generation X who are buying homes in the suburbs and have or are starting a family. 22% are 55 64, or Baby Boomers with a preference for a larger vehicle. 61% are married and 71% own a home. Their household incomes are $60K are more. 42% of them have children younger than 18. The YouGuv survey also revealed which advertising channels seem to connect with in-market SUV buyers. ADVERTISING CHANNELS TO REACH IN-MARKET SUV BUYERS, 2018 CHANNEL SUV BUYER NATIONAL AVERAGE Print newspapers 34% 18% TV 64% 51% Billboards 31% 18% YouGuv, 2018 The YouGuv data also indicates automakers and dealers would likely maximize SUV sales by appealing to women, especially for small and midsize models. SUV, CROSSOVER (CVU) AND LIGHT TRUCK PREFERENCES, BY GENDER, 2018 MODEL TYPE MEN WOMEN Small SUV/CUV 8% 13% Minivan/Van 3% 6% Midsize SUV/CUV 23% 19% Large SUV/CUV 8% 8% Pickup truck 16% 9% YouGuv, 2018 Transforming Car Buying into a Conversational Chat Even in the digital age, where the distance between people is ever greater, digital technologies now make it possible to reestablish a conversation between car dealers and potential and current customers with artificial-intelligence capabilities and chatbots, specifically. The traditional digital channels, such as paid search, display and email, are already old. Chatbots, however, which are features of many apps, such as Facebook Messenger, provide car dealers with an almost unlimited opportunity to converse with the car-buying public. Dealers can build more awareness of themselves as they also share more information to make the process easier and less stressful and more customers are happy with their purchase and the dealership s service. AI s contribution is a capability to answer ever more complex and specific questions. In addition, AI s advanced technologies make it easier for customers to pre-qualify themselves, which reduces time with a dealer salesperson, allowing them to serve more buyers and more efficiently and thoroughly. Plus, chatbots don t need a break, a meal or sleep, and are on-duty and ready to serve customers and dealerships 24/7. 2
ROAD SIGNS FORD WORKING TO PUT 5G ON THE ROAD During early January 2019, Ford announced all its new 2022 US models will include the C-V2X system. It will use 5G technology to allow the car and its occupants to be connected to the rest of the world. Not only will these Ford models have cross-vehicle communications sharing information about road hazards, for example, but also interact with traffic lights to maximize the efficiency of traffic. Consumers could order and pay for a fast-food meal and only use the drive-thru to get it, allowing the restaurant to serve more customers during a given period of time. As with any new technology (not yet available), there are some challenges to address. The largest being the government hasn t yet approved C-V2X technology. In fact, it has been more interested in dedicated short-range communications technology, or DSRC, which General Motors and Toyota have chosen, at least initially, as a competitive alternative to C-V2X. Ford considers C-V2X a more viable choice, however, as the telecom companies are already enhancing their existing infrastructure for 5G while DSRC would require an entirely new infrastructure. The Increasing Use of Ride-Hailing Services Threatens the Future of Car Ownership As if the auto industry didn t have enough other headwinds to fight, now ride-hailing services have increased from a slight breeze to a substantial gust. According to a fall 2018 Pew Research Center survey, 36% of US adults said they have used Uber, Lyft, etc. at least once, compared to 15% during 2015. All demographic metrics in the survey increased by double digits from 2015 to 2018. The increases among adults 50+, those with a high school education or less and those who earn less than $30K are particularly telling and chilling for the auto industry. Although adults with lower household incomes are not prime auto buyers, the point differences among those who are college graduates/additional college education (+26) and those who earn $75K or more (+27) are very troubling, as they are the prime new-vehicle customer. US ADULTS WHO HAVE USED A RIDE-HAILING SERVICE AT LEAST ONCE, 2018 METRIC 2015 2018 CHANGE All adults 15% 36% +21 Adults 18 29 28% 51% +23 Adults 30 49 19% 43% +24 Adults 50+ 7% 24% +17 High school or less 6% 20% +14 Some college 15% 36% +21 College grad+ 29% 55% +26 Less than $30K 10% 24% +14 $30K $74,999 13% 35% +22 $75K or more 26% 53% +27 Pew Research Center, January 2019 3
MONTHLY AUTOMOBILE SALES CHART NOTE: General Motors has decided to announce light-vehicle sales quarterly instead of monthly, eliminating Chevrolet, GMC, Buick, Cadillac and GM from the monthly tables. GM will next announce sales data April 1, 2019. RANK AUTOMAKER JANUARY 2019 % CHANGE FROM JANUARY 2018 2019 YEAR TO DATE % CHANGE FROM 2018 YEAR TO DATE #1 Ford 164,048 +6.5% 164,048 +6.5% #2 Toyota 138,601-7.1% 138,601-7.1% #3 Honda 96,375 +1.0% 96,375 +1.0% #4 Nissan 90,439-19.9% 90,439-19.9% #5 Jeep 58,401-2.2% 58,401-2.2% #6 Subaru 46,072 +3.9% 46,072 +3.9% #7 Hyundai 40,796 +2.9% 40,796 +2.9% #8 Ram 39,649 +23.8% 39,649 +23.8% #9 Kia 37,376 +4.9% 37,376 +4.9% #10 Dodge 27,077-1.9% 27,077-1.9% #11 Mercedes-Benz* 23,721-24.9% 23,721-24.9% #12 Volkswagen 23,074-6.8% 23,074-6.8% #13 Mazda 20,045-19.7% 20,045-19.7% #14 BMW 18,102-4.8% 18,102-4.8% #15 Lexus 17,420-2.8% 17,420-2.8% #16 Audi 14,253-0.02% 14,253-0.02% #17 Infiniti 10,302-3.1% 10,302-3.1% #18 Acura 9,764 +9.6% 9,764 +9.6% #19 Chrysler 9,054-14.5% 9,054-14.5% #20 Mitsubishi 8,711 +2.7% 8,711 +2.7% #21 Tesla 8,325 +21.1% 8,325 +21.1% #22 Lincoln 7,715 +20.4% 7,715 +20.4% #23 Land Rover 7,385 +14.6% 7,385 +14.6% #24 Volvo 5,854 +5.3% 5,854 +5.3% #25 Porsche 5,419 +3.6% 5,419 +3.6% #26 Jaguar 3,078 +17.3% 3,078 +17.3% #27 Mini 2,457-16.3% 2,457-16.3% #28 Genesis 1,224-24.1% 1,224-24.1% #29 Alfa Romeo 1,150-30.2% 1,150-30.2% #30 Maserati 925 +3.1% 925 +3.1% 4
RANK AUTOMAKER JANUARY 2019 % CHANGE FROM JANUARY 2018 2019 YEAR TO DATE % CHANGE FROM 2018 YEAR TO DATE #31 Fiat 751-38.9% 751-38.9% #32 Bentley 169 +7.6% 169 +7.6% #33 Smart 83-21.0% 83-21.0% Ford Motor Company 171,763 +7.1% 171,763 +7.1% Toyota Motor Corporation 156,021-6.6% 156,021-6.6% FCA/Chrysler Group 136,082 +1.8% 136,082 +1.8% Nissan Motor Company/Infiniti / Mitsubishi American Honda Motor Company Hyundai-Kia Automotive Group 109,452-17.1% 109,452-17.1% 106,139 +1.5% 106,139 +1.5% 79,396 +3.3% 79,396 +3.3% Volkswagen Group 42,746-3.5% 42,746-3.5% Daimler AG 23,804-24.9% 23,804-24.9% BMW Group 20,559-6.4% 20,559-6.4% Jaguar/Land Rover 10,463 +15.4% 10,463 +15.4% TOTAL 1,146,972-1.0% 1,146,972-1.0% * Includes Mercedes-Benz vans Includes Audi, Bentley, Porsche and Volkswagen brands, but not Lamborghini Industry total includes Automotive News figures/ estimates for brands, such as Rolls-Royce and other low-volume, high-priced manufacturers. Based on Automotive News calculations 2019 Media Group Online, Inc. All rights reserved. Sources: Automotive News Website: https://www.autonews.com/sales/sales-dip-behind-jan-chill-saar-falls-169m https://www.autonews.com/manufacturing/musk-after-q4-profit-tesla-be-black-every-quarter-19 https://www.autonews.com/executives/gm-expected-begin-thousands-salaried-job-cuts-next-week CreditUnion.com Website: https://www.creditunions.com/blogs/industry-insights/automobiles-drive-credit-union-lending/?utm_source=20190131_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=daily&utm_ content=box1&mkt_tok=eyjpijoit1dnee5usxlobuk1tkdjncisinqioijuzhfiq2v1nk1xtujznvncl2xlqkz5wkppavhxy1rqafkwamhewwpncwfxne9jtgfmafdybglvczhlux RvbHpPMUhTSEd5aHFMU0pmeXNVWmxHK3Q1R3lkQURBeTFpeHpMNXJUY1dXU21VR0dKXC9lOUFMZjZidFBrY3cxdjNuazhWIn0%3D Statista Website: https://www.statista.com/chart/12420/americas-most-and-least-trusted-professions/ YouGuv Website: https://campaign.yougov.com/rs/060-qfd-941/images/automotive%20whitepaper.pdf?mkt_tok=eyjpijoitmpvee1uvtvov1u0wlrfecisinqioijdaunudunwtehlwvhnu3zt RWZtd2l1bnNlanl5QUJiQTJ6Ujc2bU12T2kyNDhjM3lBbFhWQnJhWkJWUmVWeWxNZFlxSXAxY2ZXeGNINXp4dHd3eXo5S1BcL20rQzFxeUdwaXpZNzZ3ZEVvN1wvbmQ2a2lXK zcxb3dvt0fmtnbmdmn2in0%3d MediaVillage Website: https://www.mediavillage.com/article/suvs-marketing-problem-they-all-look-the-same/?utm_campaign=nl-daily&utm_medium=email&utm_source=jim+motavalli%3a+on+auto+ Marketing++++++++++++ Marketing Land Website: https://marketingland.com/3-reasons-chatbots-are-transforming-the-automotive-industry-255919 Forbes Website: http://fortune.com/2019/01/07/ces-2019-ford-talking-cars/?itx[idio]=8745251&ito=792&itq=6c02d209-ce58-4c1c-a87e-be619cf8a5a6 Pew Research Center Website: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/01/04/more-americans-are-using-ride-hailing-apps/ Good Car Bad Car Website: http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2019/02/u-s-auto-sales-brand-rankings-january-2019-ytd/ tok=eyjpijoit1dnee5usxlobuk1tkdjncisinqioijuzhfiq2v1nk1xtujznvncl2xlqkz5wkppavhxy1rqafkwamhewwpncwfxne9jtgfmafdybglvczhluxrvbhppmuhtsed 5aHFMU0pmeXNVWmxHK3Q1R3lkQURBeTFpeHpMNXJUY1dXU21VR0dKXC9lOUFMZjZidFBrY3cxdjNuazhWIn0%3D 5