WESTERN BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC FORECAST FOR JANUARY, 2017 2016 : ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE SUMMARY State Arizona 4.7 4.6 2.7 1.6 14.6 California 4.7 4.1 2.6 0.9 16.1 Colorado 4.6 4.0 2.6 1.7 10.8 Idaho 3.1 2.4 2.9 1.2 22.7 Montana 2.8 1.1 1.1 0.9 10.0 Nevada 4.0 2.8 1.8 14.8 New Mexico 2.8 0.7-3.3 Oregon 5.1 3.1 1.5 8.9 Texas 4.3 3.4 1.7 1.7 9.9 Utah 5.6 5.5 3.6 1.7 10.9 Washington 5.2 7.4 3.0 1.5 12.2 Wyoming -0.8-2.4-2.7-10.0 2017 : ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE SUMMARY State Arizona 5.0 5.0 2.7 1.7 11.8 California 5.4 4.7 2.2 0.9 20.3 Colorado 5.1 4.5 3.1 1.7 10.8 Idaho 4.3 2.9 2.4 1.3 11.7 Montana 3.2 1.6 1.1 0.9 6.0 Nevada 3.7 2.3 1.8 11.7 New Mexico 3.2 0.6-3.2 Oregon 5.0 2.6 1.5 6.5 Texas 5.7 5.3 2.1 1.8 16.0 Utah 5.2 5.2 3.0 1.7 5.6 Washington 4.8 5.2 2.3 1.5 6.7 Wyoming 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.2 3.5 Page 1
2016 : ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR ARIZONA Arizona Public Service 5.3 3.8 2.7 1.8 12 ASU - Economic Outlook Center 3.6 5 2.6 1.6 10 ECON-LINC 5.3 5.4 2.6 1.5 13 EconLit LLC 5.2 4.8 2.8 1.7 15 Elliott D. Pollack & Co. 3.8 3.4 2.8 1.6 8.5 Joint Legislative Budget Committee 4.2 4.0 2.7 1.6 10.0 Neal Helm 5.4 5.4 2.8 1.4 16 Northern Arizona University 5 4.9 2 1.4 15 Rounds Consulting Group 5.0 4.0 2.8 1.5 8.0 Salt River Project 5.1 4.2 2.5 1.6 16.5 Southwest Partners 5.5 6 2.9 1.8 23 Stellar Capital Management 5.1 5.6 3 1.6 18 The Maguire Company 5.0 5.0 3.0 1.6 20.0 The Retail Economist, LLC 4 3 2.5 1.6 15.3 UA - Eller College 5.2 4.1 2.8 1.5 24.1 VisionEcon/Governing Star Group 3.9 4.3 3.4 1.8 13.4 Wells Fargo 3.8 4.5 2.7 1.6 10.7 Consensus 4.7 4.6 2.7 1.6 14.6 Last Month Consensus 4.8 4.6 2.8 1.6 16.8 Page 2
2017 : ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR ARIZONA Arizona Public Service 5.4 4 3.3 1.9 14 ASU - Economic Outlook Center 4.8 5.5 2.5 1.6 15 ECON-LINC 5.6 5.8 2.8 1.7 15 EconLit LLC 5.1 5 2.7 1.6 12 Elliott D. Pollack & Co. 4.1 3 2.9 1.8 10 Joint Legislative Budget Committee 5.2 5.0 2.8 1.7 10.0 Neal Helm 5.6 5.5 2.9 1.5 11 Northern Arizona University 5.3 4.8 2.3 1.3 10 Rounds Consulting Group 5.2 5.0 2.9 1.8 12.0 Salt River Project 5.7 5.4 2.8 1.8 12.0 Southwest Partners 5.2 6.2 3.1 2 16 Stellar Capital Management 5.6 6 3.2 1.7 13 The Maguire Company The Retail Economist, LLC 4.7 5.5 2.4 1.7 11.4 UA - Eller College 5.8 5.7 3 1.7 19 VisionEcon/Governing Star Group 3.1 2.7 1.5 1.3 Wells Fargo 4.2 4.6 2.6 1.5 8.8 Consensus 5.0 5.0 2.7 1.7 11.8 Last Month Consensus 5.1 5.1 2.8 1.7 12.7 Page 3
2016 : ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR CALIFORNIA California Department of Finance 5.1 2.5 0.9 18.0 Chapman University 5.15 4.8 2.65 0.9 8.1 LA County Economic Development Corp. 4.7 3.5 2.9 0.9 17 Legislative Analyst's Office 3.9 2.4 2.6 1-2.1 UCLA - Business Forecasting Project 4 4.4 2.6 0.9 12.3 University of the Pacific 4.9 5.4 2.1 1 65.7 Wells Fargo 4.3 3.5 2.8 0.9 7.1 Woodbury University 5.6 4.5 2.7 0.9 3 Consensus 4.7 4.1 2.6 0.9 16.1 Last Month Consensus 4.9 4.1 2.6 0.9 16.0 2017 : ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR CALIFORNIA California Department of Finance Chapman University 5.3 5.3 2.4 0.9 4.2 LA County Economic Development Corp. Legislative Analyst's Office 5 3.8 1.9 0.9 2 UCLA - Business Forecasting Project 6.2 4.4 1.8 1 16.4 University of the Pacific 5.7 6 1.7 1 85.4 Wells Fargo 5 4.3 2.6 0.8 9 Woodbury University 5.5 4.4 2.6 0.9 5 Consensus 5.4 4.7 2.2 0.9 20.3 Last Month Consensus 5.8 5.3 2.2 0.9 20.2 Page 4
2016 : ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR COLORADO Colorado Legislative Council 3.8 3.1 4.2 1.9 10.7 Eastern New Mexico University Office of State Planning & Budgeting 4 4.3 2.2 1.7 6.7 Summit Economics 4.5 5 2.3 1.6 10 University of Colorado - Leeds 6.5 4.2 2.2 1.6 20.0 Wells Fargo 4 3.3 2.3 1.8 6.8 Xcel Energy Consensus 4.6 4.0 2.6 1.7 10.8 Last Month Consensus 4.9 4.0 2.8 1.7 12.6 2017 : ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR COLORADO Colorado Legislative Council 4.7 4.3 5.6 1.8 9.1 Eastern New Mexico University Office of State Planning & Budgeting 5.4 5.2 2.4 1.7 17.6 Summit Economics 4.3 4.6 2.6 1.6 5 University of Colorado - Leeds 6.5 4.5 2.4 1.6 15.0 Wells Fargo 4.5 3.8 2.4 1.7 7.5 Xcel Energy Consensus 5.1 4.5 3.1 1.7 10.8 Last Month Consensus 5.0 4.3 2.8 1.7 10.6 Page 5
2016 : ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR IDAHO Idaho Division of Financial Management 3.4 2.4 1.3 20.4 Wells Fargo 2.8 2.4 3.4 1.2 25 Consensus 3.1 2.4 2.9 1.2 22.7 Last Month Consensus 3.3 2.5 2.8 1.3 22.5 2017 : ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR IDAHO Idaho Division of Financial Management 5 2.1 1.5 10.6 Wells Fargo 3.6 2.9 2.7 1.1 12.8 Consensus 4.3 2.9 2.4 1.3 11.7 Last Month Consensus 4.4 2.9 2.4 1.4 11.8 Page 6
2016 : ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR NEVADA Gross Gaming Revenue Dept. of Training & Rehab. RCG Economics 2.5 1 2.1 1.7 22 Southwest Gas Corporation 4.9 1.5 3 2 18 University of Nevada at Las Vegas - CBER 3.6 0.4 3.4 1.6 9.2 Wells Fargo 5.1 0.9 2.8 1.9 10 Consensus 4.0 1.0 2.8 1.8 14.8 Last Month Consensus 4.0 0.9 2.8 1.8 14.3 2017 : ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR NEVADA Gross Gaming Revenue Dept. of Training & Rehab. RCG Economics 1 1.5 1.5 1.7 17 Southwest Gas Corporation 5.2 1.8 3.4 2 20 University of Nevada at Las Vegas - CBER 3.5 0.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 Wells Fargo 5.2 2.2 2.5 1.9 8 Consensus 3.7 1.6 2.3 1.8 11.7 Last Month Consensus 3.7 1.5 2.2 1.8 11.0 Page 7
2016 : ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR NEW MEXICO Manufacturing Eastern New Mexico University New Mexico State University - CEMAF 3.5-0.5 1.5 University of New Mexico - BBER 2.4-1.6 0.5-1.8 Wells Fargo 2.5-3.8 0.1-4.8 Consensus 2.8-2.0 0.7-3.3 Last Month Consensus 3.0-1.0 1.0-1.8 2017 : ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR NEW MEXICO Manufacturing Eastern New Mexico University New Mexico State University - CEMAF University of New Mexico - BBER 3.6-0.6 1.0-5.3 Wells Fargo 2.8-2 0.3-1.2 Consensus 3.2-1.3 0.6-3.2 Last Month Consensus 3.6-0.6 1.0-5.3 Page 8
2016 : ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR OREGON Manufacturing Conerly Consulting 5.5-0.2 3.2 1.5 3.9 Forefront Economics Oregon Executive Department 4.9 0.8 2.8 1.5 20.0 Portland General Electric Wells Fargo 5 0.2 3.3 1.5 2.9 Consensus 5.1 0.3 3.1 1.5 8.9 Last Month Consensus 5.1-0.1 3.1 1.5 8.9 2017 : ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR OREGON Manufacturing Conerly Consulting 4.9-0.1 2.4 1.7 5 Forefront Economics Oregon Executive Department 5.2-1.1 2.4 1.5 11.6 Portland General Electric Wells Fargo 5 0.3 2.9 1.4 3 Consensus 5.0-0.3 2.6 1.5 6.5 Last Month Consensus 5.0-0.3 2.6 1.5 6.5 Page 9
2016 : ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR TEXAS Eastern New Mexico University Econoclast 6.0 6.4 2.2 1.7 9.1 Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2.8-2 1.4 1.7 2 Perryman Group 3.9 3.3 1.6 1.5 1.6 Southern Methodist University 6.4 6.6 2 1.8 42.5 TX State Comptroller of Public Accounts University of Texas at El Paso 3.9 3.2 1.6 1.7 3 Wells Fargo 2.6 3 1.5 1.8 1 Consensus 4.3 3.4 1.7 1.7 9.9 Last Month Consensus 4.7 4.9 1.9 1.7 9.7 2017 : ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR TEXAS Eastern New Mexico University Econoclast Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 6.5 5.6 2.2 1.9 8.5 Perryman Group 5.9 4.9 1.9 1.7 6.6 Southern Methodist University 7.1 6.9 2.2 1.9 55 TX State Comptroller of Public Accounts University of Texas at El Paso 4.8 4.8 1.7 1.7 4 Wells Fargo 4.2 4.3 2.5 1.9 6 Consensus 5.7 5.3 2.1 1.8 16.0 Last Month Consensus 5.6 5.3 2.1 1.8 17.6 Page 10
2016 : ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR UTAH Utah Department of Workforce Services 5.7 5 3.6 1.7 5.7 Wells Fargo 5.5 6 3.5 1.7 16.1 Consensus 5.6 5.5 3.6 1.7 10.9 Last Month Consensus 5.6 5.5 3.4 1.7 10.9 2017 : ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR UTAH Utah Department of Workforce Services 5.1 5.1 3.1 1.7-2.7 Wells Fargo 5.2 5.2 3 1.7 14 Consensus 5.2 5.2 3.0 1.7 5.6 Last Month Consensus 5.2 5.0 3.0 1.7 5.6 Page 11
2016 : ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR WASHINGTON Conerly Consulting 5.4 8.3 3 1.6 16 Office of the Forecast Council 4.7 7.5 2.9 1.3 9.7 Wells Fargo 5.4 6.3 3 1.6 11 Consensus 5.2 7.4 3.0 1.5 12.2 Last Month Consensus 4.9 7.4 3.0 1.4 12.2 2017 : ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR WASHINGTON Conerly Consulting 5.2 6.9 2.2 1.7 10.6 Office of the Forecast Council 4.5 2.8 1.9 1.3 3.6 Wells Fargo 4.7 5.8 2.7 1.5 6 Consensus 4.8 5.2 2.3 1.5 6.7 Last Month Consensus 4.8 5.1 2.3 1.5 6.7 Page 12
2016 : ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR WYOMING Wells Fargo -1.1-0.7-3.4 0.1-16 WY Dept. of Administration & Information -0.5-4 -2-0.2-4 Consensus -0.8-2.4-2.7-10.0 Last Month Consensus -0.8-2.4-2.6-10.0 2017 : ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR WYOMING Wells Fargo 1 0.5 0.5 0.1 2 WY Dept. of Administration & Information 2 2 0.6 0.3 5 Consensus 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.2 3.5 Last Month Consensus 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.2 3.6 Page 13