Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit 6.11 - National Parameters Values Sheet
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TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE IRELAND (TII) PUBLICATIONS Activity: Stream: TII Publication Title: TII Publication Number: Planning & Evaluation (PE) Project Appraisal Guidelines (PAG) Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit 6.11 - National Parameters Values Sheet Publication Date: Set: Technical Contents Table 1. Introduction... 1 2. Economic and Environmental Parameters... 2 3. Traffic Input Parameters... 8 4. Collision Input Parameters... 11 5. Motorway Service Area Parameters... 13 6. Data Sources... 14 Page i
TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE IRELAND (TII) PUBLICATIONS Updates to resulting in changes to Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit 6.11 - National Parameters Values Sheet Date: February 2017 Page No: 2 Section No: 2 Amendment Details: Inconsistency in values in terms of CAF corrected. Page ii
Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit 6.11 - National Parameters Values Sheet 1. Introduction The National Parameters Value Sheet summaries the values for the economic and traffic related parameters to be used in the cost benefit analysis of Irish road schemes. This document is split into the following sections: Section 2 Economic and Environmental Parameters; Section 3 Traffic Input Parameters; Section 4 - Collision Input Parameters; Section 5 Motorway Service Area Parameters; and Section 6 Data Sources. Within sections below costs are presented as factor or market costs. Market costs include tax and its relationship to factor costs may be defined as follows: Market cost = 1.183 Factor Costs. Page 1
Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit 6.11 - National Parameters Values Sheet 2. Economic and Environmental Parameters Parameter Table 1: Key Parameters Value Present Value Year 2011 Discount Rate 5% per annum Appraisal Period 30 years1 Consumer Price Index Available from http://www.cso.ie Shadow Pricing Public Funds 1.3 Labour 0.8 Road Type Table 2: Maintenance Costs (Factor Costs, 2011 Prices) COBA Maintenance Type Maintenance Cost ( 1,000/km/year) Standard 2-lane with H/S 1 18.614 2+1 with central reserve 2 30.493 2+1 without central reserve 1 18.614 Dual Carriageway/Motorway 3 42.371 Table 3: Value of Time (VOT) (Factor Costs, 2011 Prices) Type of Vehicle Occupant Journey Purpose Value in /Hour Driver Working 29.02 Passenger Working 29.02 Car Driver Commuting 11.86 Driver Other Non-Working Time 10.78 Passenger Commuting 11.86 Passenger Other Non-Working Time 10.78 Driver Working 29.02 Passenger Working 29.02 LGV Driver Commuting 11.86 Driver Other Non-Working Time 10.78 Passenger Commuting 11.86 Passenger Other Non-Working Time 10.78 Other Goods Vehicles Driver Working Time 29.02 Driver Working Time 29.02 Public Service Vehicle Passenger Working Time 29.02 Passenger Commuting 11.86 Passenger Other Non-Working Time 10.78 Table 4: Value of Time Growth Factors (Annual) Year Annual Growth Factor 2010-2014 1.014 2015-2019 1.036 2020-2024 1.022 2025-2030+ 1.023 *An annual growth factor of 1.01 equates to a growth of 1% per annum. 1 For large projects with long preparation time horizons, the 30 year time period should begin from the year in which benefits accrue, with the appraisal also including the years when costs commence. A large capital project with a four year construction period should be appraised over a 34 year period (4+30). Residual value should be utilised where appropriate based on design life of the scheme, further information is available in Unit 6.1 Page 2
Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit 6.11 - National Parameters Values Sheet Collision Severity Table 5: Average Value of Prevention of Collisions (Factor Costs, 2011 Prices) Casualty related costs Lost output Human costs Medical & Ambulance Collision related costs Gardaí cost Damage to property Insurance & admin Total Fatal 701,881 1,338,656 1,205 21,521 13,952 375 2,077,589 Serious 27,041 186,012 16,382 2,519 6,225 233 238,412 Slight 2,858 13,617 1,212 653 3,713 142 22,053 Damage only - - - 42 2,346 67 2,456 Table 6: Collision Costs (Factor Costs, 2011 Prices) Collision Type Value ( ) Fatal 2,310,500 Serious Injury 331,400 Slight Injury 31,100 Damage only 2,500 Table 7: Value of Collisions Growth Factors Year Annual Growth Factor 2010 2014 1.014 2015-2019 1.036 2020-2024 1.022 2025-2030+ 1.023 Table 8: Fuel Costs (2011 Prices) Fuel Factor Cost ( per litre) Market Price ( per litre) Cost of petrol 0.63 149.2 Cost of diesel 0.70 142.9 Table 9: Fuel Consumption (litres per 100km) 2013 Vehicle Type Urban (litres/km) Rural (litres/km) Motorway (litres/km) Petrol Car 8.361 6.438 6.803 Diesel Car 6.559 5.251 5.552 Petrol LGV 13.131 8.103 7.737 Diesel LGV 9.662 6.809 8.068 OGV 20.268 14.239 15.003 Buses 41.268 24.827 21.883 M & M/Cs 5.710 4.050 4.674 Page 3
Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit 6.11 - National Parameters Values Sheet Table 10: Vehicle Operating Costs (non-fuel) (Factor costs, 2011 Prices) Vehicle Category Non-Fuel Parameters a 1 (c/km) b 1 (c/hr) Work Petrol 7.218 197.577 Work Diesel 7.218 197.577 Car Work Electric 1.682 197.577 Non-Work Petrol 6.345 0.000 Non-Work Diesel 6.345 0.000 Non-Work Electric 1.909 0.000 Work 10.483 81.002 LGV Non-Work 11.898 0.000 Average 10.483 60.253 OGV1 Work 11.544 453.584 OGV2 Work 22.456 874.315 PSV Work 52.372 1194.145 Table 11: Vehicle Operating Costs Growth Rate (Fuel Price Growth) Period Annual Growth Rate Petrol Diesel 2016 2030+ 1.0 1.0 Table 12: Vehicle Operating Costs Growth Rate (Non Fuel Price Growth) Period Annual Growth Rate a 1 (p/km) b 1 (p/hr) 2010 2014 1.000 1.000 2015-2019 0.999 1.000 2020-2024 0.998 1.000 2025-2030+ 0.996 1.000 2031+ 1.000 1.000 Table 13: Carbon Cost Forecasts (2010, Market Prices) Year of Emission Price per Tonne Carbon ( ) 2011 6.17 2012 6.28 2013 6.31 2014 6.32 2015 6.58 2016 6.92 2017-2019 7.29 Page 4
Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit 6.11 - National Parameters Values Sheet Table 14: Other GHG Costs (Market Prices, 2011) Emissions Type Price per Tonne ( ) CO2 13.22 N20 4,598.5 NOx 5,851 VOC 1,438 PMallareas 19,143 PMurban 200,239 PMsuburban 48,779 PMrural 16,985 Page 5
Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit 6.11 - National Parameters Values Sheet Vehicle Type Table 15: Forecast Fuel Consumption Parameters (litres per 100km) 2013 2020 2025 2030 Urban Rural Motorway Urban Rural Motorway Urban Rural Motorway Petrol Car 6.447 5.278 5.824 5.775 4.606 5.152 5.546 4.377 4.923 Diesel Car 5.435 4.127 4.403 5.077 3.769 4.045 4.921 3.613 3.889 Diesel LGV 6.462 5.197 6.642 6.269 4.994 6.441 6.195 4.915 6.363 OGV 18.430 14.772 19.200 18.406 14.732 19.119 18.409 14.730 19.110 Buses 34.707 24.154 27.077 34.710 24.102 27.045 34.758 24.122 27.073 Vehicle Type Table 16: CO2 Emission Factors (grams per 100km) 2013 2013 2020 2025 2030 Urban Rural Mway Urban Rural Mway Urban Rural Mway Urban Rural Mway Petrol Car 192.294 148.068 156.460 148.271 121.377 133.940 132.821 105.927 118.490 127.549 100.654 113.218 Diesel Car 181.084 144.964 153.271 150.053 113.937 121.545 140.173 104.057 111.666 135.864 99.748 107.356 Diesel LGV 266.749 187.984 222.725 178.410 143.489 183.371 173.080 137.870 177.812 171.027 135.698 175.666 OGV 559.542 393.093 414.196 508.806 407.814 530.078 508.159 406.726 527.828 508.240 406.674 527.575 Buses 1139.32 685.417 604.150 958.188 666.828 747.532 958.270 665.390 746.636 959.579 665.958 747.411 Page 6
Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit 6.11 - National Parameters Values Sheet Vehicle Type Table 17: NOx Emission Factors (grams per 100km) 2013 2013 2020 2025 2030 Urban Rural Mway Urban Rural Mway Urban Rural Mway Urban Rural Mway Petrol Car 0.097 0.078 0.092 0.055 0.036 0.024 0.040 0.025 0.015 0.038 0.024 0.014 Diesel Car 0.677 0.500 0.593 0.526 0.381 0.440 0.353 0.256 0.285 0.251 0.181 0.200 Diesel LGV 1.051 0.737 0.861 0.710 0.568 0.684 0.406 0.352 0.438 0.273 0.245 0.308 OGV 4.405 2.103 1.542 3.344 1.614 1.214 1.391 0.568 0.355 0.667 0.224 0.105 Buses 9.210 3.813 2.821 7.805 3.149 2.275 3.719 1.346 0.881 1.589 0.511 0.270 Vehicle Type Table 18: PM Emission Factors (grams per 100km) 2013 2013 2020 2025 2030 Urban Rural Mway Urban Rural Mway Urban Rural Mway Urban Rural Mway Petrol Car 0.00176 0.00119 0.00119 0.00149 0.00101 0.00101 0.00190 0.00100 0.00100 0.00199 0.00100 0.00100 Diesel Car 0.03511 0.02553 0.03305 0.01032 0.00780 0.00845 0.00374 0.00244 0.00251 0.00214 0.00112 0.00113 Diesel LGV 0.05200 0.03927 0.06146 0.01824 0.01134 0.02071 0.00522 0.00305 0.00491 0.00246 0.00130 0.00156 OGV 0.03755 0.02311 0.02106 0.03797 0.02199 0.01936 0.01246 0.00694 0.00625 0.00551 0.00262 0.00242 Buses 0.08104 0.04186 0.03566 0.08913 0.04499 0.03728 0.03294 0.01625 0.01398 0.01458 0.00650 0.00565 Page 7
Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit 6.11 - National Parameters Values Sheet 3. Traffic Input Parameters Network Classification Table 19: Annual Average Category Proportions by Class of Road CARS (1) LGV (2) OGV1 (3) OGV2 (4) PSV (5) Motorway 82.97% 8.81% 2.99% 4.77% 0.65% National Primary 85.65% 8.28% 2.50% 2.97% 0.59% National Secondary 85.67% 8.46% 3.16% 2.34% 0.36% Road Type and Flow Group Motorway (MWY) National Primary (TNB) National Primary(TBU) National Secondary (PNB) National Secondary (PNB) Table 20: Vehicle Category Proportion Correction Factors Vehicle Type LGV (2) OGV1 (3) OGV2 (4) PSV (5) 2 1.193 1.305 1.270 1.116 3 1.082 1.015 0.895 0.880 4 1.036 0.854 0.713 0.781 7 0.640 0.514 0.361 0.852 8 0.598 0.430 0.273 0.706 9 0.588 0.420 0.271 0.691 2 1.168 1.211 1.319 1.072 3 1.102 1.045 0.958 0.908 4 1.030 0.907 0.727 0.838 7 0.675 0.621 0.312 1.065 8 0.624 0.569 0.224 0.863 9 0.619 0.563 0.198 0.826 2 1.147 1.237 1.238 1.122 3 1.082 1.180 0.967 0.916 4 1.030 1.026 0.753 0.805 7 0.698 0.691 0.268 0.877 8 0.666 0.741 0.224 0.775 9 0.680 0.745 0.198 0.790 2 1.158 1.300 1.358 1.080 3 1.112 1.126 1.049 1.048 4 1.049 0.898 0.783 0.968 7 0.680 0.500 0.300 1.015 8 0.640 0.441 0.255 0.930 9 0.611 0.399 0.217 0.866 2 1.169 1.408 1.394 1.124 3 1.072 1.074 0.944 1.015 4 1.046 0.966 0.817 0.899 7 0.671 0.498 0.274 0.853 8 0.635 0.429 0.218 0.800 9 0.580 0.381 0.168 0.721 Page 8
Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit 6.11 - National Parameters Values Sheet Table 21: Vehicle Occupancy Rates, by Flow Group and Time Modes Vehicle Type Car LGV OGV1 OGV2 PSV Person Mode Flow Group 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 Work 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.26 1.33 1.34 1.38 1.38 Commuting 1.21 1.22 1.23 1.23 1.20 1.23 1.22 1.22 Other non work 1.64 1.65 1.66 1.68 1.70 1.83 1.85 1.85 Work 1.36 1.32 1.37 1.38 1.42 1.42 1.42 1.42 Commuting 1.40 1.41 1.40 1.40 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 Other non work 1.47 1.45 1.49 1.48 2.05 2.05 2.05 2.05 Work 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 Commuting 1.25 1.28 1.24 1.24 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 Other non work 1.29 1.33 1.26 1.27 1.29 1.29 1.29 1.29 Work 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 Commuting 1.11 1.14 1.11 1.08 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 Other non work 1.13 1.12 1.11 1.16 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 Work 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 Commuting 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 Other non work 9.35 9.35 9.35 9.35 9.35 9.35 9.35 9.35 Note: There are eight flow groups, four for weekday (groups 1-4) and four for the weekend (groups 6-9). Flow Group 1 = Ordinary Flow Group (overnight off peak), Flow Group 2 = Adjacent to Peak Flow Group, Flow Group 3 = AM Peak Flow Group, Flow Group 4 = PM Peak Flow Group. There are four weekend groups; Flow Group 6 = Ordinary Flow Group (overnight off peak), Flow Group 7 = Ordinary Flow Group (off peak), Flow Group 8 = Adjacent to Peak Flow Group, Flow Group 8 = Peak Flow Group. If tidality is considered, flow groups 4 and 9 are split creating flow groups 5 and 10 with the same level of flow as the original flow group but of half the duration. Page 9
Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit 6.11 - National Parameters Values Sheet Table 22: Vehicle Proportions by Time Mode and Flow Group Vehicle Type Car LGV OGV1 OGV2 PSV Person Mode Flow Group 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 Work 10.3% 16.9% 13.3% 12.0% 4.5% 1.8% 2.7% 2.7% Commuting 42.2% 36.7% 44.2% 42.9% 24.2% 7.9% 6.5% 6.5% Other non work 47.5% 46.4% 42.5% 45.1% 71.3% 90.3% 90.9% 90.9% Work 50.3% 50.3% 41.3% 40.2% 50.3% 50.3% 50.3% 50.3% Commuting 35.1% 35.1% 45.2% 45.1% 35.1% 35.1% 35.1% 35.1% Other non work 14.6% 14.6% 13.5% 14.7% 14.6% 14.6% 14.6% 14.6% Work 81.3% 81.3% 76.6% 75.6% 81.3% 81.3% 81.3% 81.3% Commuting 11.1% 11.1% 16.1% 17.0% 11.1% 11.1% 11.1% 11.1% Other non work 7.5% 7.5% 7.2% 7.4% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% Work 86.9% 86.9% 82.5% 79.7% 86.9% 86.9% 86.9% 86.9% Commuting 7.8% 7.8% 11.7% 13.2% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% Other non work 5.3% 5.3% 5.8% 7.2% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% Work 10.2% 10.2% 10.2% 10.2% 10.2% 10.2% 10.2% 10.2% Commuting 18.9% 18.9% 18.9% 18.9% 18.9% 18.9% 18.9% 18.9% Other non work 70.8% 70.8% 70.8% 70.8% 70.8% 70.8% 70.8% 70.8% Page 10
Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit 6.11 - National Parameters Values Sheet 4. Collision Input Parameters Table 23: Link and Junction Combined Collision Rates Road type Collision rate PIC/mvkm Motorway 0.020 Speed Limit 60 kph > 60 kph PIC/mvkm PIC/mvkm 2 Lane Single Carriageway 0.213 0.080 Dual Carriageway 0.140 0.033 2+1 without Central Reserve Barrier 0.213 0.080 2+1 with Central Reserve Barrier 0.140 0.033 1 Way 0.156 - Road Type Table 24: Link and Junction Combined Collision Proportions Collision Proportions Fatal Serious Minor Motorway 0.038 0.051 0.911 Speed limit 60 kph > 60 kph Casualty severity Fatal Serious Minor Fatal Serious Minor 2 Lane single carriageway 0.014 0.062 0.924 0.062 0.096 0.842 Dual Carriageway 0.024 0.054 0.922 0.035 0.049 0.916 2+1 without Central Reserve Barrier 2+1 with Central Reserve Barrier 0.014 0.062 0.924 0.062 0.096 0.842 0.024 0.054 0.922 0.035 0.049 0.916 1 Way 0.014 0.062 0.924 - - - Road Type Table 25: Average Number of Casualties per Collision Casualties per PIC Fatal Serious Minor Motorway 0.072 0.063 1.322 Speed limit 60 kph > 60 kph Casualty severity Fatal Serious Minor Fatal Serious Minor 2 Lane single carriageway 0.021 0.097 1.272 0.137 0.193 1.321 Dual Carriageway 0.024 0.087 1.180 0.052 0.081 1.278 2+1 without Central Reserve Barrier 2+1 with Central Reserve Barrier 0.021 0.097 1.272 0.137 0.193 1.321 0.024 0.087 1.180 0.052 0.081 1.278 1 Way 0.021 0.097 1.272 - - - Page 11
Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit 6.11 - National Parameters Values Sheet Road type Table 26: Collision Reduction ( ) Factors Collision Type Collision rate reduction factor Motorway 1 0.956 Speed Limit 60 kph > 60 kph 2 Lane Single Carriageway 4 0.959 0.955 2+1 without Central Reserve Barrier 5 0.959 0.955 1 Way 8 0.959 0.955 Dual Carriageway 10 0.967 0.956 2+1 with Central Reserve Barrier Road type 11 0.959 0.955 Collision Type Casualties per Collision change factor: Fatal, Serious, Minor Motorway 1 0.978,0.979,1.002 Speed Limit 60 kph > 60 kph 2 Lane Single Carriageway 4 0.971,0.995,1.001 0.979,0.983,1.002 2+1 without Central Reserve Barrier 5 0.971,0.995,1.001 0.979,0.983,1.002 1 Way 8 0.971,0.995,1.001 0.979,0.983,1.002 Dual Carriageway 10 0.998,0.99,1.002 0.984,0.985,0.998 2+1 with Central Reserve Barrier 11 0.971,0.995,1.001 0.979,0.983,1.002 Page 12
Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit 6.11 - National Parameters Values Sheet 5. Motorway Service Area Parameters Table 27: MSA Parameters Parameter Value Anticipated Turn in Rates 7% - 12% Anticipated Turnover 10,000,000 per 1,000 AADT in the MSA Net Revenue 10% of Total Turnover Operation & Maintenance Costs Anticipated to range between 4% - 8% of total turnover. Page 13
Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit 6.11 - National Parameters Values Sheet 6. Data Sources Parameter Source Table 28: Data Sources Table 1: Key Parameters DTTAS, Common Appraisal Framework (CAF ) 2016 Table 2: Maintenance Costs Table 3: Value of Time (VOT) CAF (2016) Table 4: Value of Time Growth Factors Table 5: Average Value of Prevention of Collisions Transport Research Laboratory as part of COBA Ireland development CAF (2016) based on GNP growth CAF (2016) Table 6: Collision Costs CAF (2016) Table 7: Value of Collisions Growth Table 8: Fuel Costs CAF (2016) Table 9: Fuel Consumption CAF (2016) Table 10: Vehicle Operating Costs (non-fuel) Table 11: Vehicle Operating Costs Growth Rate (Fuel Price Growth) Table 12: Vehicle Operating Costs Growth Rate (Non Fuel Price Growth) Table 13: Carbon Cost Forecasts Table 14: Other GHG Costs Table 15: Forecast Fuel Consumption Parameters (litres per 100km) CAF (2016) based on GNP growth CAF (2016) updated to EURO Advice from AECOM Economics due to lack of accurate forecasts. Future vehicle operating costs are estimated using the current price of fuel. All forecasting is done in real terms, that is at 2011 prices, so this is equivalent to assuming that the price of fuel will rise in line with general price levels in the future. The actual price of fuel is more volatile than this and will rise and fall in real terms over time. However, in the absence of a reliable model of the future energy market in Ireland the best assumption to make is that, on average, fuel prices will remain constant in real terms. U.K Webtag as not available in CAF (2016) CAF (2016), 2011 2013 values developed based on CPI Index CAF (2016), N2O not available so taken from 2011 PAG and factored to 2011 prices based on CPI CAF (2016) Page 14
Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit 6.11 - National Parameters Values Sheet Parameter Table 16: CO2 Emission Factors (grams per 100km) 2013 Table 17: NOx Emission Factors (grams per 100km) 2013 Table 18: PM Emission Factors (grams per 100km) 2013 Table 19: Annual Average Category Proportions by Class of Road Table 20: Vehicle Category Proportion Correction Factors Source CAF (2016) CAF (2016) CAF (2016) Table 21: Vehicle Occupancy Rates CAF (2016) (2016) Table 22: Vehicle Proportions Table 23: Link and Junction Combined Collision Rates Table 24: Link and Junction Combined Collision Proportions Table 25: Average Number of Casualties per Collision Table 26: Collision Reduction ( ) Factors Table 27: MSA Parameters Calculated based on first principles from TII TMU data Not available in CAF (2016), unchanged from 2011 PAG Not available in CAF (2016), unchanged from 2011 PAG Based on historical data from Road Safety Authority and traffic demand data from TII NTpM Based on historical data from Road Safety Authority and traffic demand data from TII NTpM Based on historical data from Road Safety Authority and traffic demand data from TII NTpM Based on TRL/Smeeds Law Research Based on surveys undertaken on behalf of TII Page 15
Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Unit 6.11 - National Parameters Values Sheet