Presentation 22 February 2019

Presentation 22 February 2019 1

2 INTRODUCTION A policy simulation tool to identify cost-efficient urban mobility pathways for mitigating CO 2 emissions in Indian cities. Excel-based tool Policies that can be tested with the tool: Transport infrastructure investment Urban area growth Demand-management measures Vehicle technology Shared mobility Joint work between the World Bank and the International Transport Forum with local data and technical support provided by TERI.

3 MODEL SCOPE Analysis carried out for all cities (population >500K) in India Exhaustive city-specific data collection by TERI for 108 cities UA pop (2011) City Tier NO. of Cities Cities Included >8 Million I 5 4-8 Million II 4 Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore, Kolkata, Chennai Hyderabad, Ahmedabad, Pune, Surat 1-4 Million III 44 Jaipur, Lucknow, Vijayawada, etc. 0.5-1 Million IV 55 Amaravati, Mathura, Bhubaneswar, etc. The model captures aggregate relationships (not a projection model for each city )

MODEL FRAMEWORK 4

5 DEEP CHANGES IN URBAN TRAVEL DEMAND Population will double by 2050 Tier I and Tier III constitute 70% 412 Number of cities in each Tier 198 319 City class in 2050 City class in 2010 I II III IV I 5 0 0 0 II 4 0 0 0 III 0 14 30 0 IV 0 0 53 0

Billion passenger-kilometres 6 DEEP CHANGES IN URBAN TRAVEL DEMAND Passenger demand will quadruple by 2050 Highest increase occurs in Tier I and Tier III 3500 3188 3000 Share of PKM for each share 2500 City Tier 2010 2030 2050 2000 1500 1816 IV III II I 60% 62% 58% II 10% 10% 11% 1000 743 I III 22% 21% 24% 500 IV 8% 7% 8% 0 2010 2030 2050

7 DEEP CHANGES IN URBAN TRAVEL DEMAND Car ownership will grow from 52 to 231 per 1000 inhabitants 2W ownership will grow from 183 to 352 per 1000 inhabitants Cars per 1000 inhabitants 2W per 1000 inhabitants

8 DEEP CHANGES IN URBAN TRAVEL DEMAND Formal buses per lakh decrease from 18 to 12 per lakh Share of private bus increases from 50% to 60%

9 DEEP CHANGES IN URBAN TRAVEL DEMAND Metro network length grows from 217km to 2813km As planned, 250 000 million rupees per year are 100% spent on metro network construction and expansion, according to the existing and future plans.

10 DEEP CHANGES IN URBAN TRAVEL DEMAND Footpath length grows from 7668km covering 9% of the roads to 32530km covering 18% of the roads Bike-lane length grows from 994km covering 1% of the roads to 5275km, covering 3% of the roads

11 DEEP CHANGES IN URBAN TRAVEL DEMAND Private mode share will increase from 30% to 48% NMT mode share will decrease from 38% to 21%

12 DEEP CHANGES IN URBAN TRAVEL DEMAND Differences in transport supply lead to distinct mode share patterns NMT shares decreases in all tiers, with a shift to motorised modes Bus shares decrease in all tiers but tier IV, due to the negligible increase in mass transit supply and lower growth in personalised modes 2W share continues to grow in all tiers, despite much slower than car. It started to stabilises or declines after 2035 Increasing car share for all tiers, most notably in tier III, due to the combination of high income growth and limited plans for PT supply expansion

13 TRANSPORT SECTOR EMISSIONS CO 2 emissions in 2050 is nearly EIGHT times the 2010 level. Larger cities emit much more due to the prevalence of cars 80% of the emissions comes from Tier I and Tier III

14 DEEP CHANGES IN URBAN TRAVEL DEMAND Private car is the main contributor to the increase in TTW CO2 emissions. Metro and rail are the main contributor to the WTT emissions, representing more than 60% in 2010 and decreases to 45% in 2050. Without clean electricity, mode shift to metro will not transform into CO 2 savings Share of WTT in the total emissions goes down from 35% in 2010 to 29% in 2050

15 ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIOS Investment policies Land use policies Demand management Shared mobility Vehicle technology

16 INVESTMENT POLICIES Indicative strategies of allocating available funding Available money per year (million rupees) 250 000 Scenarios Pop > 4M Pop 1M - 4M Pop < 1M Bus only scenario % of funding allocated % of funding utilised 37% 40% 21% 98% 87% BRT only scenario 10% 22% 13% 45% 45% NMT only scenario 15% 9% 4% 28% 27% Bus + MT + NMT scenario 10% MT, 20% Bus, 6% NMT 12% MT, 25% Bus, 5% NMT 0% MT, 20% Bus, 2% NMT 100% 91%

CO2 [million tonnes] 17 INVESTMENT POLICIES Mixed investment strategy has the highest CO 2 mitigation potential in cities 250 207 200 150 184 170 148 127 Well-to-tank 100 Tank-to-wheel 50 28 0 Baseline Baseline BRT only NMT only Bus only Bus + MT + NMT 2010 2050

CO2 per PKM [g/pkm] 18 INVESTMENT POLICIES Bus and mixed investment strategy have the highest efficiency (CO 2 per PKM) 80 70 60 50 40 CO 2 emissions per passenger-kilometre in 2050 70 68 63 43 43 30 20 10 0 Baseline NMT only BRT only Bus + MT + NMT Bus only

Vehicles/1000 inhab. 19 INVESTMENT POLICIES Mixed and bus only investment strategy have the highest impacts on containing the growth of private vehicle ownership Vehicle ownerships in 2050 400 350 300 250 200 231 352 242 367 220 338 209 295 192 277 Car 150 2W 100 50 0 Baseline NMT only BRT only Bus only Mixed

20 INVESTMENT POLICIES Bus and mixed scenarios give more sustainable mode shares 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 7% 5% 5% 4% 3% 27% 30% 48% 46% 40% 13% 38% 21% 22% 35% 58% 24% 26% 27% 21% 3% 23% 27% 44% IPT Private vehicle Non-motorised Public transport 0% Baseline Baseline BRT only NMT only Bus only Bus+MT+NMT 2010 2050

21 KEY TAKEAWAYS FOR MAXIMUM IMPACTS Combination of mode investments yield superior outcomes - Integration Encourage low cost high impact Bus and NMT investments in combination with or without mass transit Investing in mass rapid transit in isolation is suboptimal Focus on Tier 3 cities with differentiated strategies compared to Tier 1 & 2

CO2 emissions [million tonnes] 22 LAND-USE SCENARIO Limiting urban area growth from 2025 onwards can further reduce the CO 2 emissions by nearly 8mt in 2050. 200 207 160 120 80 40 28 127 119 Well-to-tank Tank-to-wheel 0 Baseline Baseline Bus + MT + NMT Bus + MT + NMT + Land-use 2010 2050 Limiting urban sprawl reduces the investment need

23 SHARED MOBILITY SCENARIO Introducing only the shared-taxi (4 pax) service has the risk of increasing CO 2 emissions, because the current car share is low. CO 2 benefits can be achieved when taxi-bus (16 pax) service takes high percentage of the shared vehicle fleet. The messages is consistent with ITF s shared mobility studies. 240 207 200 160 120 127 160 119 Well-to-tank 80 Tank-to-wheel 40 28 0 Baseline Baseline Bus + MT + NMT S.Mob. - low taxi-bus S.Mob. - high taxi-bus 2010 2050

24 VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY SCENARIOS Introducing alternative vehicle technology pathway on top of the most effective scenario Bus + MT + NMT Scenarios Bus, BRT 2W, 3W Car 2DS Tech Path 2DS Fuel Eco, 2DS Fuel Share 2DS Fuel Eco, 2DS Fuel Share 2DS Fuel Eco, 2DS Fuel Share High Electrification 40% elec. by 2030, 70% elec. by 2050, 4DS WTT 60% elec. by 2030, 100% elec. by 2050, 4DS WTT 40% elec. by 2030, 70% elec. by 2050, 4DS WTT IEA s 2DS lays out an energy system deployment pathway and an emissions trajectory consistent with at least a 50% chance of limiting the average global temperature increase to 2 C.

million tonnes 25 VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY SCENARIOS 2DS vehicle technology pathway, CO 2 emissions reduced further by 80mt High electrification scenario reduces CO2 emissions by 56mt But do not address sustainable mobility objectives (i.e. private vehicle use, congestion), in a way that the mixed strategy does 250 200 150 100 207 157 151 127 Well-to-tank Tank-to-wheel 50 28 0 Baseline Baseline Baseline + 2DS Tech Baseline + High Elec. Bus + MT + NMT 2010 2050

Million tonnes 26 VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY SCENARIOS Combining the mixed strategy with 2DS/High electrification can address both CO 2 and sustainable mobility objectives Focus next on clean source of electricity in high electrification scenario 200 207 160 157 151 120 80 94 90 Well-to-tank Tank-to-wheel 40 28 0 Baseline Baseline Baseline + 2DS Tech Baseline + High Elec. Bus + MT + NMT + Bus + MT + NMT + 2DS Tech High Elec. 2010 2050

27 COMBINED IMPACT ON PASSENGER DEMAND Baseline scenario Combined scenario 3 500 3 500 3 000 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 Total Public transport Private vehicle Non-motorised 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

KEY TAKEAWAYS FOR MAXIMUM IMPACTS Operationalize all policy levers together Focus on Tier 3 cities with differentiated strategies compared to Tier 1 & 2 Controlling the urban footprint expansion for compact cities Encourage low cost high impact Bus and NMT investments in combination or without mass transit Emphasize high occupancy shared mobility Greening the Grid essential for realizing the electric mobility benefits Electric mobility strategy within the larger urban mobility strategy 28

29 CURRENT LIMITATIONS Feedback from transport development to the land-use Dynamic interaction/equilibrium between travel demand and transport supply Congestion impacts of different types of transport infrastructures

Thank you 30

31 SHARED MOBILITY SCENARIOS Introducing different levels of shared mobility services on top of the most effective scenario Bus + MT + NMT Scenarios Target mode share of shared mobility services % of taxi-bus in the shared vehicle fleet S.Mob. low taxi bus 20% by 2030, 30% by 2050 10% by 2030, 20% by 2050 S.Mob. high taxi bus 20% by 2030, 30% by 2050 50% by 2030, 80% by 2050