Index Table of Contents Table of Contents... i List of Figures... ix Executive summary... 1 1 Introduction to autonomous cars... 3 1.1 Definitions and classifications... 3 1.2 Brief history of autonomous cars... 5 1.3 Current state of self-driving cars and key stakeholders... 6 1.3.1 Automotive manufacturers... 7 1.3.2 Tier-1 automotive suppliers... 8 1.3.3 Technology companies... 8 1.3.4 Connectivity service providers... 8 1.4 Key market drivers... 9 1.5 Key market barriers... 10 1.6 The global passenger car market... 11 1.6.1 Car segments... 11 1.6.2 Passenger cars in use by region... 12 1.6.3 New passenger car registration trends... 14 1.7 Market trends... 17 1.7.1 Hybrid electric, plug-in hybrid electric and all-electric vehicles... 17 1.7.2 Car sharing and personal transportation as a service... 22 1.8 User segments for autonomous driving... 26 1.8.1 Luxury segment... 27 1.8.2 Commuters... 28 1.8.3 Young drivers... 28 1.8.4 Paratransit... 29 1.8.5 Delivery fleets... 29 1.8.6 Transportation on demand... 29 2 Advanced driver assistance systems... 31 STRATEGIC M2M RESEARCH SERIES i
2.1 Introduction to the most common ADAS... 32 2.1.1 Adaptive cruise control... 32 2.1.2 Cooperative adaptive cruise control... 32 2.1.3 Lane departure warning... 33 2.1.4 Lane keeping assist... 33 2.1.5 Autonomous emergency braking... 33 2.1.6 Collision avoidance system... 34 2.1.7 Blind spot monitor... 34 2.1.8 Rear cross traffic alert... 34 2.1.9 Forward cross traffic alert... 34 2.1.10 Turning assist... 35 2.1.11 Road sign detection... 35 2.1.12 Other ADAS... 35 2.2 Specific semi-autonomous use cases... 36 2.2.1 Parking assist... 36 2.2.2 Traffic jam assist and highway autopilot... 36 2.2.3 Platooning... 37 3 Autonomous car technologies... 41 3.1 Sensors... 42 3.1.1 Cameras... 42 3.1.2 Lidar... 43 3.1.3 Radar... 45 3.1.4 Ultrasonic and infrared sensors... 46 3.1.5 Inertial navigation system... 46 3.2 Telematics... 47 3.2.1 Mobile connectivity... 48 3.2.2 Location tracking... 48 3.2.3 Digital maps... 49 3.2.4 V2V and V2I communication... 50 3.3 Computing platform... 52 3.3.1 Sensor fusion... 53 3.3.2 Interpretation and decision making... 54 ii STRATEGIC RESEARCH SERIES M2M RESEARCH SERIES
3.3.3 Computer vision... 57 3.3.4 Artificial intelligence... 58 3.3.5 Machine learning... 60 3.3.6 Deep learning... 61 3.4 Execution and related technologies... 64 3.4.1 Electronic control unit... 65 3.4.2 Human machine interface... 65 3.4.3 Driver monitoring systems... 66 3.5 Summary of the current state of autonomous car technologies... 66 4 Autonomous car initiatives... 69 4.1 Overview of current projects... 70 4.2 Jaguar Land Rover Automotive... 73 4.2.1 Overview of Jaguar Land Rover passenger car models... 74 4.2.2 ADAS offerings... 74 4.2.3 Approach to autonomous cars... 76 4.2.4 Autonomous technology activities... 76 4.2.5 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market... 77 4.3 Volvo Car Group... 78 4.3.1 Overview of Volvo passenger car models... 78 4.3.2 ADAS offerings... 79 4.3.3 Approach to autonomous cars... 81 4.3.4 Autonomous technology activities... 81 4.3.5 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market... 84 4.4 Tesla Motors... 85 4.4.1 Overview of Tesla passenger car models... 86 4.4.2 ADAS offerings... 87 4.4.3 Approach to autonomous cars... 89 4.4.4 Autonomous technology activities... 90 4.4.5 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market... 91 4.5 Mercedes-Benz... 92 4.5.1 Overview of Mercedes-Benz passenger car models... 93 4.5.2 ADAS offerings... 93 STRATEGIC M2M RESEARCH SERIES iii
4.5.3 The upcoming E-class models... 95 4.5.4 Approach to autonomous cars... 96 4.5.5 Autonomous technology activities... 96 4.5.6 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market... 100 4.6 Audi... 101 4.6.1 Overview of Audi passenger car models... 102 4.6.2 ADAS offerings... 102 4.6.3 Approach to autonomous cars... 103 4.6.4 Autonomous technology activities... 104 4.6.5 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market... 105 4.7 BMW... 106 4.7.1 Overview of BMW passenger car models... 107 4.7.2 ADAS offerings... 107 4.7.3 Approach to autonomous cars... 109 4.7.4 Autonomous technology activities... 109 4.7.5 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market... 112 4.8 General Motors... 112 4.8.1 Overview of the main GM passenger car brands... 113 4.8.2 ADAS offerings... 114 4.8.3 Approach to autonomous cars... 115 4.8.4 Autonomous technology activities... 116 4.8.5 Strategic investments... 117 4.8.6 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market... 118 4.9 Ford Motor Company... 119 4.9.1 Overview of Ford passenger car models... 120 4.9.2 ADAS offerings... 121 4.9.3 Approach to autonomous cars... 122 4.9.4 Autonomous technology activities... 123 4.9.5 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market... 125 4.10 Toyota Motor Corporation... 126 4.10.1 Overview of Toyota and Lexus passenger car models... 127 4.10.2 ADAS offerings... 128 iv STRATEGIC RESEARCH SERIES M2M RESEARCH SERIES
4.10.3 Approach to autonomous cars... 128 4.10.4 Autonomous technology activities... 130 4.10.5 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market... 132 4.11 Honda Motor Company... 133 4.11.1 Overview of Honda and Acura passenger car models... 134 4.11.2 ADAS offerings... 134 4.11.3 Approach to autonomous cars... 135 4.11.4 Autonomous technology activities... 136 4.11.5 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market... 138 4.12 Hyundai Motor Group... 138 4.12.1 Overview of Hyundai and Kia passenger car models... 139 4.12.2 ADAS offerings... 140 4.12.3 Approach to autonomous cars... 141 4.12.4 Autonomous technology activities... 142 4.12.5 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market... 144 4.13 Renault-Nissan Alliance... 145 4.13.1 Overview of Nissan Motor Company... 145 4.13.2 Overview of Nissan and Infiniti passenger car models... 146 4.13.3 Overview of Renault Group... 146 4.13.4 Overview of Renault and Dacia passenger car models... 147 4.13.5 Nissan and ADAS developments... 148 4.13.6 Renault and ADAS developments... 149 4.13.7 Approach to autonomous cars... 150 4.13.8 Nissan and autonomous technology activities... 151 4.13.9 Renault and autonomous technology activities... 153 4.13.10 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market... 154 4.14 Fiat Chrysler Automobiles... 155 4.14.1 Overview of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles passenger car models... 156 4.14.2 ADAS offerings... 157 4.14.3 FCA and autonomous driving... 157 4.15 Groupe PSA... 159 4.15.1 Overview of Peugeot and Citroën passenger car models... 160 STRATEGIC M2M RESEARCH SERIES v
4.15.2 ADAS offerings... 160 4.15.3 Approach to autonomous cars... 161 4.15.4 Autonomous technology activities... 162 4.15.5 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market... 165 4.16 Google... 165 4.16.1 Approach to autonomous cars... 166 4.16.2 Autonomous technology activities... 167 4.16.3 Google Chauffer software... 171 4.16.4 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market... 172 4.17 Apple... 172 4.17.1 Apple s vehicle project... 173 4.18 Uber Technologies... 174 4.18.1 Approach to autonomous cars... 174 4.18.2 Uber and autonomous cars... 175 4.18.3 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market... 177 4.19 Baidu... 178 4.19.1 Approach to autonomous cars... 179 4.19.2 Autonomous technology activities... 179 4.19.3 Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market... 181 4.20 Additional car OEM initiatives... 182 4.21 Car manufacturers not yet betting on autonomous car technology... 183 4.22 Supplier and technology company initiatives... 183 4.22.1 Autoliv... 184 4.22.2 Bosch... 184 4.22.3 Continental... 185 4.22.4 Delphi Automotive... 185 4.22.5 ZF TRW... 186 4.22.6 Mobileye... 186 4.22.7 Nvidia... 187 4.22.8 Velodyne LiDAR... 188 4.22.9 Additional supplier initiatives... 190 5 Regional developments... 191 vi STRATEGIC RESEARCH SERIES M2M RESEARCH SERIES
5.1 USA... 191 5.2 European Union... 193 5.3 Germany... 194 5.4 United Kingdom... 195 5.5 Sweden... 196 5.6 China... 198 5.7 Japan... 199 5.8 South Korea... 199 5.9 Singapore... 201 6 Benefits of autonomous cars... 203 6.1 Safety... 203 6.2 Convenience... 204 6.3 Traffic efficiency... 205 6.4 Mobility... 206 6.4.1 Benefits for people unable to drive... 206 6.4.2 Public driverless fleets of cars... 207 6.5 Sustainability... 208 6.5.1 Electric autonomous vehicles... 208 6.5.2 Increased efficiency... 209 6.6 Impact on city infrastructure... 209 7 Barriers and challenges... 211 7.1 Technology reliability... 211 7.2 Mixed vehicle environment... 214 7.3 HMI challenges to accomplish Level 3... 214 7.4 Standards and collaborations... 215 7.5 Regulations and liabilities... 216 7.5.1 International conventions on road traffic... 216 7.5.2 Liability... 217 7.6 Public acceptance... 218 7.7 Car longevity... 219 8 Market forecasts and trends... 221 8.1 Car sales forecast... 221 STRATEGIC M2M RESEARCH SERIES vii
8.2 Autonomous car sales forecast... 223 8.2.1 SAE Level 1... 225 8.2.2 SAE Level 2... 225 8.2.3 SAE Level 3... 227 8.2.4 SAE Level 4... 229 8.2.5 SAE Level 5... 231 8.3 Regional market developments... 231 8.3.1 SAE Level 2, Level 3 and non-driverless Level 4... 231 8.3.2 SAE Driverless Level 4... 232 8.4 Market drivers and barriers... 233 8.4.1 Competitive environment... 233 8.4.2 Technology environment... 234 8.4.3 Regulatory environment... 235 8.4.4 Macroeconomic environment... 235 8.5 Value chain analysis... 236 8.5.1 Automotive industry players... 237 8.5.2 IT industry players... 237 8.5.3 Automotive suppliers... 238 8.5.4 Transport service players... 238 8.6 Future industry trends... 239 8.6.1 Forecasting the autonomous car market beyond 2030... 239 8.6.2 The overall impact of autonomous cars on society... 241 8.6.3 Data ownership and privacy protection strategies... 242 8.6.4 How will the rollout of self-driving cars affect the insurance industry?... 243 8.6.5 Self-driving cars and the Internet of Things... 244 8.6.6 New mobility services and business models for fully autonomous cars... 245 Glossary... 249 viii STRATEGIC RESEARCH SERIES M2M RESEARCH SERIES
Index List of Figures Figure 1.1: SAE classification of levels of autonomy... 4 Figure 1.2: Performance and adoption barriers... 10 Figure 1.3: Car parc by region (World 2008 2014)... 13 Figure 1.4: Passenger car parc density by region (World 2015)... 14 Figure 1.5: New car registration data (World 2008 2015)... 15 Figure 1.6: Top 10 countries by new passenger car and light truck registration (2015)... 16 Figure 1.7: Top selling highway capable all-electric cars (World 2015)... 19 Figure 1.8: Registered highway capable BEVs and PHEVs (World 2015)... 21 Figure 1.9: Car sharing and mobility service companies (World Q4-2015)... 24 Figure 3.1: Sense-Plan-Act process... 41 Figure 3.2: Typical lidar 3D depiction integrated with a digital map... 44 Figure 3.3: Relationship between fields in computer science... 56 Figure 3.4: Conceptual structure of a simple neural network... 62 Figure 3.5: Graphical representation of underfitting and overfitting... 63 Figure 4.1: Top 20 passenger car manufacturers by revenues (World 2015)... 71 Figure 4.2: Top 6 luxury car manufacturers by new registrations (World 2015)... 72 Figure 4.3: Land Rover remote control app... 75 Figure 4.4: Drive Me project routes for autonomous mode... 82 Figure 4.5: Tesla Autopilot display... 88 Figure 4.6: F 015 Luxury in Motion interior design... 98 Figure 4.7: Audi RS 7 autonomous race car... 104 Figure 4.8: BMW VISION NEXT 100 concept car featuring heads-up display... 111 Figure 4.9: Chevrolet Tahoe modified vehicle at the DARPA Urban Challenge... 116 Figure 4.10: Ford Fusion Hybrid autonomous test car... 124 Figure 4.11: Honda Wander Stand concept vehicle... 137 Figure 4.12: The empty car convoy... 144 Figure 4.13: Nissan IDS Concept interior when in self-driving mode... 152 Figure 4.14: 2017 Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid... 158 STRATEGIC M2M RESEARCH SERIES ix
Figure 4.15: Google autonomous prototype... 168 Figure 4.16: Volvo Cars XC90 equipped for Uber s autonomous ride-hailing program... 177 Figure 4.17: Baidu s autonomous BMW Gran Turismo test vehicle... 180 Figure 4.18: Nvidia Drive PX2... 188 Figure 4.19: Velodyne HDL-64E LiDAR... 189 Figure 7.1: Traffic in Ho Chi Minh City... 213 Figure 8.1: Global passenger car and light truck sales by region (2015 2030)... 222 Figure 8.2: Luxury car sales (World 2016 2030)... 223 Figure 8.3: Autonomous car sales and active installed base by level (World 2015 2030)... 224 Figure 8.4: Autonomous car SAE level 2 sales by region (2015 2030)... 226 Figure 8.5: Autonomous car SAE level 3 sales by region (2015 2030)... 228 Figure 8.6: Autonomous car SAE level 4 sales by region (2015 2030)... 230 Figure 8.7: Technology adoption lifecycle model... 240 Figure 8.8: Long term outlook on passenger car and autonomous car sales... 241 Figure 8.9: Evolutionary pathway of Internet of Things use cases... 244 Figure 8.10: Potential paths to shared ownership of autonomous cars... 246 x STRATEGIC RESEARCH SERIES M2M RESEARCH SERIES