Covering First Quarter 2015 Volume 20, Number 2 Sponsored by: Maryland Automobile Dealers Association TM FORECAST Market Posts Increase in First Quarter of 2015 3.1% improvement predicted for entire year Below is a summary of nine key trends and developments in the Maryland new vehicle market. State market gets off to good start in 2015; increase is above Nation State new retail registrations were up 4.5% for the first three months of this year (March figures were estimated) versus a year earlier, above the 2.2% uptick in the National market. Sixth consecutive annual increase likely in 2015 State new retail light vehicle registrations are predicted to increase 3.1% from 14 to 15. Market has come a long way from depths of 2009 sales trough As shown below, the state new vehicle market has recovered steadily during the past six years. Registrations this year are projected to exceed 09 levels by more than 84,000 units. Trucks grab a larger share of state market Light truck market share increased from 49.0% during the first three months of 2014 to 51.0% this year. This followed the 2.5 point increase from 2013 to 2014. Alternative powertrain vehicle sales fall State sales of hybrid and electric cars and trucks fell 20% so far this year, while the overall market improved. Market share declined to 2.9%. Toyota, Honda, Ford, Nissan, and Chevrolet are leaders in state market Toyota was the best selling brand so far this year, with a 15.8% share. Honda s state share was 11.6%, well above its 9.2% share in the U.S. MINI, Chrysler, Land Rover, Kia, and Lincoln gain a lot of ground early this year New retail registrations for each of these five brands were up more than 17% so far in 2015. Toyota Corolla best-selling car in state market; CR-V is light truck leader Honda Accord and Toyota Camry were ranked second and third behind Corolla in the car market, while Ford F-Series and Toyota RAV4 trailed the CR-V. European and Korean brands gain some ground in 2015 European and Korean brands had small market share increases so far this year, while Japanese brands declined slightly. Percent Change in State Light Truck and Car Registrations YTD 15 thru March* vs. YTD 14 Light Trucks (Pickups, SUVs, and Vans) Passenger Cars *March 15 figures estimated by Auto Outlook. UP 8.6% UP 0.4% New light vehicle registrations 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Annual Trend in State Market 214,253 208,116 197,576 183,634 259,832 251,098 239,296 268,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Forecast Historical Data The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations in the state from 2008 thru 2014 and Auto Outlook s projection for 2015. Market Summary YTD '14 YTD '15 % Chg. Mkt. Share thru Mar thru Mar* '14 to '15 YTD '15* TOTAL 56,344 58,858 4.5% Car 28,721 28,846 0.4% 49.0% Light Truck 27,623 30,012 8.6% 51.0% Domestic 18,050 18,860 4.5% 32.0% European 5,627 6,030 7.2% 10.2% Japanese 27,658 28,636 3.5% 48.7% Korean 5,009 5,332 6.4% 9.1% Domestic brands consists of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, FCA (excluding FIAT), and Tesla. *Figures for March, 2015 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Historical figures were updated and will differ slightly from those presented in previous issues.
Page 2 MARKET TRACKER: QUARTERLY RESULTS State Market Increased 4.5% in 1st Quarter of 15 vs. 2.2% in U.S. QUARTERLY TREND Percent Change in New Vehicle Market State and U.S. QUARTERLY PERSPECTIVE Five Years of First Quarter Results in State Market 7.0% 65000 60000 6.0% 55000 % change versus year earlier 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% State U.S. The state market improved at a faster than the U.S. in the 1st Quarter of 2015. New retail light vehicle registrations 50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 The market was up by more than 7,000 units in the First Quarter of 2015 vs. 2011. 1.0% 25000 0.0% Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15* State 3.9% 4.3% 4.1% 4.5% U.S. 6.5% 6.1% 6.6% 2.2% 20000 Q1 '11 Q1 '12 Q1 '13 Q1 '14 Q1 '15* Regs. 51537 55028 55689 56344 58858 First Quarter registrations during past five years * Figures for First Quarter 2015 were estimated by Auto Outlook based on data for January and February. Data * Figures for First Quarter 2015 were estimated by Auto Outlook based on data for January and February. Data Covering First Quarter 2015 Published by: Auto Outlook, Inc. PO Box 390 Exton, PA 19341 Phone: 800-206-0102 EMail: jfoltz@autooutlook.com Editor: Jeffrey A. Foltz Reproduction, including photocopying of this publication in whole or in part, is prohibited without the express permission of Auto Outlook, Inc. Any material quoted must be attributed to, published by Auto Outlook, Inc. on behalf of Maryland Automobile Dealers Association, and must also include the statement: Data Unforeseen events may affect the forecast projections presented. Consequently, Auto Outlook, Inc. is not responsible for management decisions based on the content of.
Covering First Quarter 2015 Page 3 MARKET TRACKER: BRAND MARKET SHARE Japanese Share Declines Change in State Market Share YTD 2015 thru March* vs. YTD 2014 MARKET TRACKER: HYBRID AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES Hybrid/Electric Share Trends Lower Quarterly Alternative Powertrain Market Share (includes hybrid and electric vehicles) Korean European Domestic Japanese Domestic brand share was unchanged. -0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0-3.0-2.0-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 Change in market share The graph above shows the change in year-to-date market share for four primary brand segments. *Figures for March, 2015 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Data MARKET TRACKER: SEGMENTS 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Compact SUV Segment Leads State Market Segment Market Share YTD 14 thru February Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Trendline Alternative powertrain market share has trended lower over the past three years, and fell below 2.9% in the First Quarter of 2015. Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15* The graph above shows hybrid powertrain and electric vehicle quarterly market share in the state. The line shows market share trend over the past 12 quarters. *First Quarter 2015 includes January and February. Maryland Segment Market Share Review Market Share YTD 15 thru February Change in share YTD 14 to 15 Best selling model in segment Compact SUV 18.4 18.1-0.3 Honda CR-V Sub Compact Car 18.4 17.4-1.0 Toyota Corolla Standard Mid Size Car 17.2 16.4-0.8 Honda Accord Mid Size SUV 3 Rows 7.8 8.3 0.5 Honda Pilot Full Size Pickup 7.2 7.9 0.7 Ford F Series Entry Car 3.8 3.7-0.1 Honda Fit Near Luxury Car 3.5 3.7 0.2 Lexus ES Mid Size Luxury SUV 3.7 3.5-0.2 Lexus RX Mid Size SUV 2 Rows 3.3 3.3 0.0 Jeep Grand Cherokee Mini Van 3.2 3.1-0.1 Toyota Sienna Compact Luxury SUV 1.9 2.6 0.7 Acura RDX Large Mid Size Car 2.3 2.5 0.2 Toyota Avalon Luxury and Sports Cars 2.8 2.5-0.3 BMW 5-Series Compact Pickup 1.3 1.9 0.6 Toyota Tacoma Full Size Van 1.3 1.4 0.1 Ford Transit Connect Van Sport Compact Car 1.4 1.4 0.0 Ford Mustang Full Size SUV 1.2 1.1-0.1 Chevrolet Tahoe Entry Luxury Car 0.8 0.8 0.0 Mercedes CLA-Class Full Size Luxury SUV 0.4 0.5 0.1 Cadillac Escalade The table above shows Maryland market share for 19 vehicle segments during the first two months of 2014 and 2015, and the change in market share over the period. The best selling model in each segment is also shown. Segments are ranked from top to bottom based on 2015 share. Most popular segment in the state is Compact SUV. Full Size Pickups and Compact Luxury SUVs had the largest gains. Data
Page 4 BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART ONE MINI and Chrysler Post Large Percentage Gains Land Rover, Kia, and Lincoln are also up sharply The graphs below provide a comparative evaluation of brand sales performance in the state market. They show the year-to-date percent change in registrations for each brand, organized by category (i.e., Detroit Three, European, Japanese, and Korean). Percent Change in State New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations YTD 2015 thru March* vs. YTD 2014 Chrysler 34.4% Lincoln 17.9% Jeep GMC Ford Ram Detroit Three Brands 11.1% 8.3% 6.4% 4.4% Chevrolet Buick Cadillac -11.2% -3.3% 2.7% MINI and Chrysler had the biggest increases. Subaru had the largest increase among Japanese brands. Dodge -12.7% MINI 38.2% Land Rover 27.5% BMW Porsche Audi European Brands 14.1% 17.7% 16.5% Volvo Jaguar 9.5% 9.4% Mercedes 5.0% Volkswagen -6.1% FIAT -37.0% Subaru 17.3% Lexus 12.7% Nissan Toyota Honda Acura Japanese Brands 2.0% 1.9% 1.1% 0.4% Mitsubishi Mazda -0.9% -1.5% Infiniti -5.4% Kia Hyundai Korean Brands 1.6% 18.0% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% *Figures for March, 2015 were estimated by Auto Outlook.
Covering First Quarter 2015 Page 5 BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART TWO Toyota is Top Selling Brand in State Market Honda s share of state market exceeds U.S. by 2.4 points The graph below provides a comparison of Maryland and U.S. new retail market share during the first three months of this year for the top 20 selling brands in the state. Brands are positioned on the graph from top to bottom based on state market share. Toyota was the state leader, accounting for 15.8% of the market, above its 13.3% share in the Nation. State and U.S. Market Share - YTD 2015 thru March* Toyota 13.3% 15.8% Honda 9.2% 11.6% Ford 10.8% 12.6% Nissan Chevrolet 7.9% 7.8% 7.7% 10.2% Hyundai Subaru 4.3% 4.8% 4.2% 5.9% Jeep Kia 3.2% 3.8% 4.6% 4.8% Toyota, Honda, and Hyundai state market shares were well above U.S. Mazda 1.9% 2.8% Lexus Dodge BMW Volkswagen Mercedes Acura 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 1.9% 2.2% 2.3% 1.8% 1.2% State U.S. Ram GMC Chrysler Audi 1.7% 1.6% 1.4% 1.6% 1.0% 1.2% 2.7% 3.2% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% Market Share *Figures for March, 2015 were estimated.
Page 6 BRAND SCOREBOARD-PART THREE Ford and Jeep Have Big Gains During Past Four Years State registrations for both brands were up more than 7,700 units between 2009 and 2014 Since the new vehicle market hit bottom in 2009, the recovery has been strong and steady. New vehicle sales increased for five straight years, and were 41% higher in 2014 than in 2009. Not surprisingly, nearly all brands posted impressive gains during the five year period, and among the top 20 sellers no brands had a decline. However, as shown on the graph below, some have had bigger gains than others. The graph provides a thorough picture of brand sales performance by showing both the unit and percentage gains between 2009 and 2014. Brands are positioned from left to right based on the unit gain in registrations (shown by the green bars and represented by the left axis). Percentage change (shown by the orange bars and represented by the right axis) is also shown for each brand. Unit and Percent Change in State New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations 2014 vs. 2009 12000 250% Ford had the highest unit gain in registrations, up by 11,252. Green bars show unit change in registrations Orange bars show percent change in registrations 10000 Jeep had the highest percentage gain, and the second highest unit increase. 200% Unit change in registrations - 2009 to 2014 (green bars) 8000 6000 4000 Ram registrations increased by 150% during the past five years. 150% 100% Percent change in registrations - 2009 to 2014 (orange bars) 50% 2000 0 0%
Covering First Quarter 2015 Page 7 COUNTY SCOREBOARD Most County Markets Moved Higher in Early 2015 Montgomery County market increased 5.4% The table below and graph to the right provide a thorough summary of each of Maryland s 24 county new retail light vehicle markets. This county-level information provides a valuable perspective on local market performance. The table below shows new retail light vehicle registrations during the first two months of 2014 and 2015, as well as light truck market share in each county. The graph shows Domestic Brand market share. Note: top five shaded counties in each category of the table below are shaded yellow. Garrett Saint Marys Caroline Cecil Calvert Kent Dorchester Allegany Somerset Charles Queen Annes Harford Carroll Washington Worcester Frederick Talbot Anne Arundel Prince Georges Wicomico Baltimore Baltimore Ind Howard Montgomery Domestic Brand Market Share (%): YTD 2015 thru February 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% COUNTY MARKET REVIEW Year to date thru February Percent Change Unit Change Light Truck Market Share (%) YTD 2014 YTD 2015 2014 to 2015 2014 to 2015 YTD 2014 YTD 2015 Change Allegany 275 319 16.0% 44 61.5 61.4 0.0 Anne Arundel 3,711 3,969 7.0% 258 52.3 53.4 1.1 Baltimore 5,172 5,277 2.0% 105 51.4 52.4 1.1 Baltimore Ind 1,889 1,959 3.7% 70 39.7 42.0 2.4 Calvert 661 662 0.2% 1 55.4 54.8-0.5 Caroline 181 197 8.8% 16 56.4 50.8-5.6 Carroll 1,152 1,162 0.9% 10 56.5 62.4 5.9 Cecil 612 670 9.5% 58 57.8 57.9 0.1 Charles 979 1,113 13.7% 134 49.7 46.0-3.7 Dorchester 182 190 4.4% 8 52.7 58.9 6.2 Frederick 1,694 1,676-1.1% -18 53.2 57.7 4.5 Garrett 176 172-2.3% -4 76.7 75.0-1.7 Harford 1,735 1,793 3.3% 58 52.6 56.9 4.3 Howard 2,184 2,323 6.4% 139 49.1 53.3 4.2 Kent 109 121 11.0% 12 64.2 62.8-1.4 Montgomery 6,510 6,864 5.4% 354 46.7 49.2 2.5 Prince Georges 3,893 4,548 16.8% 655 43.3 43.3 0.1 Queen Annes 352 366 4.0% 14 50.0 63.4 13.4 Saint Marys 783 767-2.0% -16 56.3 61.1 4.8 Somerset 81 86 6.2% 5 53.1 59.3 6.2 Talbot 249 229-8.0% -20 52.2 52.8 0.6 Washington 777 872 12.2% 95 52.3 54.4 2.1 Wicomico 467 602 28.9% 135 52.0 47.3-4.7 Worcester 341 299-12.3% -42 61.6 54.8-6.7
Page 8 Brand Registrations Report Maryland New Retail Car and Light Truck Registrations First Quarter* Annual Totals Registrations Market Share (%) Registrations Market Share (%) 1Q 2014 1Q 2015 % change 1Q 2014 1Q 2015 Change 2013 2014 % change 2013 2014 Change TOTAL 56,344 58,858 4.5 251,098 259,832 3.5 Cars 28,721 28,846 0.4 51.0 49.0-2.0 136,008 134,212-1.3 54.2 51.7-2.5 Light Trucks 27,623 30,012 8.6 49.0 51.0 2.0 115,090 125,620 9.1 45.8 48.3 2.5 Domestic Brands 18,050 18,860 4.5 32.0 32.0 0.0 78,085 82,990 6.3 31.1 31.9 0.8 European Brands 5,627 6,030 7.2 10.0 10.2 0.2 26,204 27,176 3.7 10.4 10.5 0.1 Japanese Brands 27,658 28,636 3.5 49.1 48.7-0.4 122,856 126,762 3.2 48.9 48.8-0.1 Korean Brands 5,009 5,332 6.4 8.9 9.1 0.2 23,953 22,904-4.4 9.5 8.8-0.7 Acura 1,053 1,057 0.4 1.9 1.8-0.1 4,673 4,495-3.8 1.9 1.7-0.2 Audi 539 615 14.1 1.0 1.0 0.0 2,685 2,978 10.9 1.1 1.1 0.0 BMW 1,217 1,433 17.7 2.2 2.4 0.2 5,226 5,722 9.5 2.1 2.2 0.1 Buick 486 470-3.3 0.9 0.8-0.1 2,062 2,136 3.6 0.8 0.8 0.0 Cadillac 429 381-11.2 0.8 0.6-0.2 1,995 1,843-7.6 0.8 0.7-0.1 Chevrolet 4,390 4,509 2.7 7.8 7.7-0.1 20,363 20,255-0.5 8.1 7.8-0.3 Chrysler 617 829 34.4 1.1 1.4 0.3 3,079 2,769-10.1 1.2 1.1-0.1 Dodge 1,654 1,444-12.7 2.9 2.5-0.4 7,302 7,298-0.1 2.9 2.8-0.1 FIAT 135 85-37.0 0.2 0.1-0.1 626 520-16.9 0.2 0.2 0.0 Ford 5,990 6,371 6.4 10.6 10.8 0.2 26,559 28,037 5.6 10.6 10.8 0.2 GMC 887 961 8.3 1.6 1.6 0.0 3,887 4,141 6.5 1.5 1.6 0.1 Honda 6,764 6,840 1.1 12.0 11.6-0.4 33,249 32,904-1.0 13.2 12.7-0.5 Hyundai 3,433 3,489 1.6 6.1 5.9-0.2 16,383 15,645-4.5 6.5 6.0-0.5 Infiniti 459 434-5.4 0.8 0.7-0.1 1,911 1,836-3.9 0.8 0.7-0.1 Jaguar 53 58 9.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 263 238-9.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 Jeep 2,442 2,714 11.1 4.3 4.6 0.3 8,509 11,111 30.6 3.4 4.3 0.9 Kia 1,576 1,859 18.0 2.8 3.2 0.4 7,570 7,259-4.1 3.0 2.8-0.2 Land Rover 324 413 27.5 0.6 0.7 0.1 1,134 1,215 7.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 Lexus 1,287 1,451 12.7 2.3 2.5 0.2 5,625 6,032 7.2 2.2 2.3 0.1 Lincoln 151 178 17.9 0.3 0.3 0.0 680 804 18.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 Mazda 1,666 1,641-1.5 3.0 2.8-0.2 6,989 7,491 7.2 2.8 2.9 0.1 Mercedes 1,239 1,301 5.0 2.2 2.2 0.0 5,534 6,099 10.2 2.2 2.3 0.1 MINI 212 293 38.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 1,298 1,165-10.2 0.5 0.4-0.1 Mitsubishi 323 320-0.9 0.6 0.5-0.1 1,005 1,169 16.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 Nissan 4,538 4,627 2.0 8.1 7.9-0.2 18,884 19,490 3.2 7.5 7.5 0.0 Other 83 63-24.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 389 443 13.9 0.2 0.2 0.0 Porsche 127 148 16.5 0.2 0.3 0.1 576 660 14.6 0.2 0.3 0.1 Ram 961 1,003 4.4 1.7 1.7 0.0 3,292 4,357 32.4 1.3 1.7 0.4 Subaru 2,431 2,851 17.3 4.3 4.8 0.5 9,008 11,239 24.8 3.6 4.3 0.7 Tesla 33 67 103.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 307 186-39.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 Toyota 9,132 9,303 1.9 16.2 15.8-0.4 41,465 42,079 1.5 16.5 16.2-0.3 Volkswagen 1,449 1,361-6.1 2.6 2.3-0.3 7,296 6,981-4.3 2.9 2.7-0.2 Volvo 264 289 9.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 1,274 1,235-3.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 *March 2015 figures were estimated by Auto Outlook. Source: IHS Automotive is distributed free of charge to all members of Maryland Automobile Dealers Association. The publication is sponsored and supported by MADA. is published and edited by Auto Outlook, Inc., an independent automotive market research firm. Opinions expressed in are solely those of Auto Outlook, Inc., and are not necessarily shared by MADA. Maryland Automobile Dealers Association 7 State Circle, Suite 301 Annapolis, MD 21401-1904 www.mdauto.org Copyright Auto Outlook, Inc., April 2015