Growth Opportunities in US PV Market Ray Lian Solarbuzz, Shanghai
Welcome to the World of Solarbuzz Solarbuzz launched in 2001. Long track record of high quality solar industry market research. Acquired by the NPD Group in March 2010. Collaboration with NPD sister company DisplaySearch. Client services include: Website (www.solarbuzz.com) NBuzz weekly newsletter Multi-client annual reports Multi-client quarterly reports Custom consulting 2
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Strong Global Market Growth over the Last Decade 21 18 World PV Market 2001-2010 (GW) Source: Solarbuzz 15 12 9 6 3 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0.35 0.43 0.60 1.09 1.47 1.75 2.83 6.09 7.62 18.23 5
Regional Breakdown of 2010 Demand Share of Global Photovoltaic Demand in 2010 United States 5% Japan 5% Rest of World 9% Rest of Europe 18% Germany 42% Total: 18.2 GW Italy 21% Source: Solarbuzz Source: Solarbuzz, Marketbuzz 2011 6
World/US PV Market Forecast 2010: Total 18.2 GW 2015 Production Led Scenario Total: 54.7 GW Germ any 43% Germany 18% US 12% US 5% U.S. Share Up Source: Solarbuzz, Marketbuzz 2011 7
In MW-DC US PV Market (2005 to 2015): Rapid Growth 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 E 2012 E 2013 E 2014 E 2015 E Note: 2011-2015 projection data based on Solarbuzz Production Led Scenario Forecasting. 8
US: Abundant Solar Resource and Land 9
US: Diversity & Complexity 50 States + DC Over 3,000 Utilities 10
2009 US On-Grid Market by State New York 2% Arizona 5% New Jersey 13% Florida 9% California 51% Hawaii 3% Colorado 5% Source: Solarbuzz, United States Photovoltaic Market 2010, June 11
US Market Drivers: Policies/Regulations Renewable Portfolio Standard FEDERAL Property Tax Exemption State Tax Credit Investment Tax Credit STATE Renewable Energy Grant Sales Tax Exemption Net Metering Incentive Program 12
US Market Drivers: Federal Policies/Regulations FEDERAL Investment Tax Credit - 30% tax credit - Taxpayers - End of 2016 Renewable Energy Grant - ARRA - 30% in cash - Non-residential - End of 2011 13
US Market Drivers: State Policies/Regulations Renewable Portfolio Standard Property Tax Exemption State Tax Credit STATE Sales Tax Exemption Net Metering Incentive Program 14
Renewable Portfolio Standard: Key Driver Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) Requires electric utilities to use renewable energy in their portfolio of electricity sources by a certain specific data. Electric utilities can generally comply with the RPS requirements in three ways Owning a renewable facility and its output generation Purchasing electricity from renewable generators or independent power producers inclusive of all renewable attributes via a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) Purchasing Renewable Energy Credit (RECs) 15
Renewable Portfolio Standards 29 States and Washington DC have enacted RPS. 16
Renewable Portfolio Standards with Solar or DG Set-asides 17
RPS Solar Set-aside: Policy Comparison State Set-aside Type Goal by Requirement Potential (MW) Arizona DG 2025 4.50% 1,300 Colorado DG 2020 3.00% 600 Delaware PV 2026 3.50% 250 Illinois PV 2025 1.50% 1700 Maryland Solar 2022 2.00% 1,200 Massachusetts Solar - 400 MW DC 400 Missouri Solar 2021 0.30% 150 Nevada Solar 2025 1.50% 130 New Hampshire Solar 2014 0.30% 30 New Jersey Solar 2026 5,316 GWh 4,500 New Mexico Solar and 2020 4.00% 600 DG 2020 0.60% 90 New York DG (PV allotment) 2015 ~0.13% 170 North Carolina Solar 2018 0.20% 220 Ohio Solar 2025 0.50% 650 Oregon PV 2020 20 MW AC 20 Pennsylvania Solar PV 2021 0.50% 850 Washington DC Solar 2020 0.40% 50 18
Rapid Growth in Utility Segment in US 2009 >0.5GW 2014 Production Led Scenario ~5.8 GW 17 % Residential Corporate/Government Utility Source: Solarbuzz, US PV Market Report 2010 19
US PV Utility Projects Project MW-AC State Online Date Copper Mountain Solar 1 Project 48.0 NV 2010 Cimarron 1 Solar 30.0 NM 2010 Greater Sandhill Alamosa 16.2 CO 2010 Wyandot Solar Project 12.0 OH 2010 FSE Blythe 21.0 CA 2009 Nellis Solar Project 14.0 NV 2008 El Dorado Solar Project 10.0 NV 2008 20
US Deal Tracker System Size Mix (Total: 12.9GW) Number of Projects by System Size 5MW - 15MW 11% 15MW - 50MW 10% '>50MW 8% 1MW - 5MW 30% '<500KW 30% All non-residential System Sizes Installed and Planned 500KW - 1MW 11% Planned: RFP Released 6% Planned: RFP Awarded 27% Total MW by Status Planned: Delayed RFP Closed 1% 0% Not Confirmed 4% Planned 44% Being Installed 14% Completed 4% National 21
Thank You! Contact Us Ray Lian Ray.lian@solarbuzz.com Sales contact: Rita Li Rita.li@displaysearch.com CHINA Solarbuzz/DisplaySearch Phone: + 86 21 62752555 22