ELECTRIC VEHICLES TODAY AND TOMORROW Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission Monday, November 6, 2017 Gil Tal gtal@ucdavis.edu Wei Ji weiji@ucdavis.edu Tom Turrentine tsturrentine@gmail.com
Modeling DC Fast Charging 2012-2017 History
How much Public Charging Do We Need?
Energy consumption US -2 (travel east) 400.000 350.000 Energy consumption Whatt/h 300.000 250.000 200.000 150.000 100.000 50.000 0.000-50.000-100.000 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 miles Travel
US 2 - Seattle Wenatchee Travel West
60.0 US 2 - Seattle Wenatchee Corridor Cold day and heavy car 50.0 40.0 30.0 Average miles left 20.0 10.0 Range Scenario (Travel East) Range Scenario (Travel East) Elevation profile DC Fast Charger location 0.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0-10.0 miles Travel -20.0
Regional Models May Miss Some Demand. Larger Regions Have Less Error. 90.00% 80.00% 70.00% Percent of Demand From Inside Region vs Battery Size Percent of Demand 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% y = 1758.6x -1.813 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Vehcile Range Los Angeles Bay Area San Diego Sacramento Power (Bay Area)
Sacramento to Bakersfield I-5 or Hwy 99?
Charging for on a long corridor is not practical based on Value of time
Charge Window Illustration D= 85 mile tour Charge window on D is mile 37-64 A = 4 customers B =3 customers C=6 customers
Tool - Our Data Set: Caltrans Travel Survey 2012. ~40,000 Persons. Can Gasoline Travel be Done in an EV? California Statewide Charging Assessment Model for Plug-in Electric Vehicles: Learning from Statewide Travel Surveys. UCD-ITS-WP- 13-01http://www.its.ucdavis.ed u/?page_id=10063&pub_id= 1832 11
Charger Choices in San Diego
Charger Choices in San Diego
Charger Choices in San Diego
Charger Choices in San Diego
Charger Choices in San Diego
Where do People Want Chargers?
Given Only 5 Choices, Priority is Home Area
Quick Charging Insights: Destination Charging Q C
130 Mile Tour
130 Mile Tour
130 Mile Tour
Completed Work. BEV80 State Demand Distribution: 200 Initial Locations (246 Chargers @30,000 BEV)
Statewide Demand Distribution: BEV 80. 334 Locations
Statewide Demand Distribution: BEV 100. 334 Locations
Statewide Demand Distribution: BEV 200. 334 Locations
Statewide Demand Distribution: BEV 300. 334 Locations
Future Scenario Choosing the Best Stations with three BEV Sizes
Use Cases for Fast Chargers Level 2 backup - Workplace I have the time to charge, but I can t find an open L2 charger Destination/L2 Backup/ Home Home charger/home backup I have no home charger I only have level 1 at home Corridor fast charger I don t have the range and need to charge Corridor Fast Charger Destination fast charger perhaps near regional centers. I have to meet someone for dinner and I won t spend long enough at dinner to charge 29
Leaf DC fast charging Desired vs needed vs actual Cumulative Distance Distribution of Desired, Modeled and Used Chargers by LEAF Drivers Percentage of Chargers 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Desired DC Fast: Leaf Survey Modeled BEV 100 Choices Scaled to Frequency Used Chargers for Leafs 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Distance from home to desired charger (miles)
PG&E Scenario 2025 Home dominates in urban areas (10 AM peak) Work centers have work based demand (noon and 6pm peak) Corridors draw from far away (5-8 pm peak) Corridors are the most speculative. Depends on confidence of availability and increase in battery Size https://www.pge.com/pge_global/common/pdfs/aboutpge/environment/what-we-are-doing/electric-programinvestment-charge/epic-1.25.pdf 31
1 2 3 4 Trips longer than the car range are only small share of the DC fast usage DC Fast substitute for slower origin or destination charging When free When needed Not as a daily use Need new data for low frequency charging Updated modeling tools (for spatial and temporal distribution) Modeling impact of longer range BEVs? Shared mobility vehicles? Driverless vehicles? Conclusions and Next Steps