Jarrell Independent School District Demographic Study January 22 nd, 2014 Learn from Yesterday Understand Today Plan for Tomorrow
Economic Conditions From 2000 to 2013, Texas outperformed the U.S. job creation rate by more than two-to-one. (Forbes) Texas has created more than 270 thousand non-farm jobs in the last 12 months. (Texas Comptroller s Office) The state's unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 82 consecutive months. (http://www.thetexaseconomy.org/economic-outlook/ ) Austin is predicted to be ranked #1 in the U.S. in job growth over the next 10 years with an estimated 4.0% sustained growth rate. (Forbes) Unemployment rates - Texas Labor Market Information (November 2013) - U.S. 6.6% - Texas 5.8% - Austin MSA 4.7% - Williamson County 4.9% Austin MSA home builders have built almost 10,000 houses in the last 12 months (Metrostudy) 2
National Economic Overview Top Job Growth Markets Ranked by Percent Change in Emp. Sept. 2013 4.0% 3.5% Austin, TX, 4.0% McAllen, TX, 3.7% Houston, TX, 3.5% Fort Worth Arlington, TX, 3.5% Ocala, FL, 3.4% Santa Cruz, CA, 3.4% Salt Lake City, UT, 3.4% Dallas, TX, 3.4% Laredo, TX, 3.3% Brownsville, TX, 3.1% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 7 out of the top 10 job growth cities are in Texas. Source: Forbes Magazine 3
Austin Market Starts and Closings 4
Austin Market Year Over Year Comparison Multiple Listing Service YTD SFD Activity & Inventory Sept-13 %Change YTD Sales 23,984 23% Average Price 285,300 11% Median Price 223,000 13% Listings 5,965-12% DOM 44-33% Monthly Supply 2.7-27% *Listings are not necessarily down, houses are selling quicker and many sell prior to listing Source: Austin Board of Realtor MLS (ABOR) 5
Region 13 and 20 Growth 2007/08 2012/13 Negative 0-100 100-250 250-750 750-1500 > 1500 6
New Home Ranking Report by ISD 3Q13 Austin Area Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Leander ISD 1,805 1,783 2,052 8,928 2 Austin ISD 1,512 1,572 1,412 12,529 3 Round Rock ISD 1,222 1,163 1,034 2,698 4 Hays CISD 912 831 1,269 11,211 5 Lake Travis ISD 858 734 1,934 4,773 6 Pflugerville ISD 815 696 760 7,543 7 Georgetown ISD 825 691 1,284 15,432 8 Manor ISD 528 527 621 17,202 9 Dripping Springs ISD 385 321 1,040 4,943 10 Del Valle ISD 291 297 315 16,364 11 Hutto ISD 364 256 548 6,127 12 San Marcos ISD 136 143 178 5,013 13 Jarrell ISD 139 126 255 7,512 14 Liberty Hill ISD 161 107 585 8,332 15 Bastrop ISD 72 60 395 12,022 16 Eanes ISD 23 22 207 323 17 Lago Vista ISD 1 17 407 3,065 18 Taylor ISD 19 14 116 545 19 Wimberley ISD 10 8 71 0 20 Elgin ISD 3 6 209 4,525 21 Johnson City ISD 0 1 81 0 22 Giddings ISD 0 0 0 89 23 Lockhart ISD 0 0 183 673 24 Smithville ISD 0 0 119 412 Totals 10,081 9,375 15,075 150,261 7
Jarrell ISD New Housing Activity Annual Starts & Closings History 2012-Present 2013 YTD starts (112) are just a few short of the 2012 total (120) and will likely exceed 140 units for 2013. Closings YTD will likely be over 130 total for 2013, at least 16% above the 2012 total of 112 units closed. 8
New Home Activity The Home Place at Jarrell Phase 1 100 total lots 20 homes built 40 lots under construction or under contract 40 Remaining lots Phase 2 100 total lots Opening 2Q14 Phase 3 114 total lots Opening 1Q15 9
New Home Activity Sonterra Active Single Family Future Single Family Multi-Family School Site Commercial Single Family Occupied Units 1,200 VDL 400 Future Units 3,200 Total Units 4,800 Expected Delivery 2013 180 2014 200 2015 225 2016+ 250 Total Current Students 446 Multi-family Occupied Units 160 2014 Expansion 130 Future Units 120 Total Units 690 Total Current Students 34 10
New Home Activity Madison at Georgetown Subdivision Totals 936 Single Family Lots 2 Multi-family Lots 2 Retail Lots No homes built in 2014 100-130 homes in 2015 Section I 489 Single Family Lots 1 Multi-family Lot 1 Retail Lot Section II 288 Single Family Lots 1 Multi-family Lot 1 Retail Lot Section III 159 Single Family Lots 11
Housing Activity Overview The Home Place 314 total lots Build-out estimated in 2016 Estimated yield when complete 0.6-0.8 per unit 190 to 250 students Sonterra 4,800 total lots Build-out estimated in 2026 Estimated yield when complete 0.6-0.8 per unit 2,880 to 3,840 students Madison at Georgetown 936 total lots Build-out estimated in 2025 Estimated yield when complete 0.6-0.8 per unit 560 to 750 students 12
Student Concentration Map 2 Mile Reside Radius 67% of students 778 of the 1,155 total enrollment Sun City 13
Enrollment History Cohort Analysis K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 3 year avg 1.123 1.119 0.970 0.993 1.073 1.022 1.026 1.099 1.069 1.211 0.887 0.942 0.936 2010/11 0.838 1.2 0.984 1.132 1.053 1.014 1.066 1.014 1 1.153 1 0.932 0.949 2011/12 1.224 1.209 0.896 1 0.935 1 1.014 1.154 0.973 1.439 0.868 0.886 0.855 2012/13 1.134 1.061 1.049 0.86 1.258 1.042 1.038 1.081 1.12 1.123 0.805 1 0.971 2013/14 1.011 1.086 0.966 1.118 1.027 1.026 1.027 1.061 1.113 1.071 0.988 0.939 0.983 Total Growth Total Percent Year (Oct.) K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total 2009/10 80 63 68 75 72 61 74 57 59 79 59 59 61 917 2010/11 67 96 62 77 79 73 65 75 57 68 79 55 56 975 58 6% 2011/12 82 81 86 62 72 79 74 75 73 82 59 70 47 1,010 35 4% 2012/13 93 87 85 74 78 75 82 80 84 82 66 59 68 1,080 70 6.9% 2013/14 94 101 84 95 76 80 77 87 89 90 81 62 58 1,141 61 5.6% *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year Rollup Analysis K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Growth Roll up 94 94 101 84 95 76 80 77 87 89 90 81 62 1,177 36 Prev Cohort 95 102 98 94 98 78 82 82 97 95 89 76 61 1,213 72 3 Year Cohort 106 105 98 83 102 78 82 85 93 108 80 76 58 1,220 79 14
Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level Total Growth Total Percent Year (Oct.) K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total 2009/10 80 63 68 75 72 61 74 57 59 79 59 59 61 917 2010/11 67 96 62 77 79 73 65 75 57 68 79 55 56 975 58 6% 2011/12 82 81 86 62 72 79 74 75 73 82 59 70 47 1,010 35 4% 2012/13 93 87 85 74 78 75 82 80 84 82 66 59 68 1,080 70 6.9% 2013/14 94 101 84 95 76 80 77 87 89 90 81 62 58 1,141 61 5.6% 2014/15 103 103 106 88 100 79 85 84 98 100 85 78 60 1,236 95 8.3% 2015/16 112 115 111 111 93 106 87 94 95 110 94 83 76 1,354 118 9.5% 2016/17 123 125 127 122 122 102 117 94 106 107 105 92 81 1,490 136 10.0% 2017/18 135 137 135 135 130 130 112 128 106 119 101 105 90 1,630 140 9.4% 2018/19 148 151 151 149 149 140 143 122 144 119 113 101 102 1,799 169 10.4% 2019/20 163 163 165 164 162 161 154 156 138 161 113 113 99 1,979 180 10.0% 2020/21 179 181 178 179 179 174 177 168 172 155 153 113 110 2,185 206 10.4% 2021/22 193 195 195 194 196 193 191 193 181 193 147 153 111 2,402 217 9.9% 2022/23 207 212 212 210 208 211 212 208 207 203 183 147 149 2,636 234 9.7% 2023/24 223 224 230 228 224 224 232 231 225 232 193 183 144 2,860 224 8.5% *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year Projecting 95 (8.3%) enrollment growth for Fall 2014 with total district enrollment of 1,236. Five year enrollment growth of 658 students with total district enrollment of 1,799 in the year 2018/19. Ten year enrollment growth of 1,719 students with total district enrollment of 2,860 in the year 2023/24. 15
Ten Year Forecast By Campus History Current Fall Projections Campus Name 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Jarrell Elementary 484 517 567 609 686 739 815 884 963 1,040 1,116 1,196 Elementary Total 484 517 567 609 686 739 815 884 963 1,040 1,116 1,196 Elem. Growth 33 33 50 42 77 53 76 69 79 77 76 80 Jarrell Middle School 320 333 346 382 419 476 549 609 691 758 838 912 M. S. Growth 19 13 13 36 37 57 73 60 82 67 80 74 Jarrell High School 274 291 323 363 385 415 435 486 531 604 682 752 H. S. Growth 16 17 32 40 22 30 20 51 45 73 78 70 Lott Detention Center 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Williamson County JJAEP 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 1,080 1,141 1,236 1,354 1,490 1,630 1,799 1,979 2,185 2,402 2,636 2,860 Student Growth 70 61 95 118 136 140 169 180 206 217 234 224 Jarrell Elementary will likely exceed 700 students in 2017. Jarrell Middle School will likely exceed 400 students in 2016 and 500 by 2018. Jarrell High School will likely exceed 400 students in 2017 and 600 by 2021. 16
Ten Year Forecast By Campus Alternate Campus Configuration History Current Fall Projections Campus Name 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Jarrell Elementary 559 597 467 516 564 609 666 722 784 844 908 972 Elementary Total 559 597 467 516 564 609 666 722 784 844 908 972 Elem. Growth 29 38 49 48 45 57 56 62 60 64 64 Intermediate 179 199 224 260 289 323 353 389 419 448 Inter. Growth 20 25 36 29 34 30 36 30 29 Jarrell Middle School 245 253 267 276 317 346 409 448 517 565 627 688 M. S. Growth 23 8 14 9 41 29 63 39 69 48 62 61 Jarrell High School 274 291 323 363 385 415 435 486 531 604 682 752 H. S. Growth 16 17 32 40 22 30 20 51 45 73 78 70 TOTAL 1,080 1,141 1,236 1,354 1,490 1,630 1,799 1,979 2,185 2,402 2,636 2,860 Student Growth 70 61 95 118 136 140 169 180 206 217 234 224 This structure relieves the capacity pressure from the elementary campus. Jarrell Elementary would not exceed 700 until 2019 with this plan. Jarrell Intermediate would likely remain under 500 students for the next 10 years Middle School and High School projections would remain the same with this plan. 17
Summary Austin is predicted to be ranked #1 in the U.S. in job growth over the next 10 years. 2013 YTD starts (112) are just a few short of the 2012 total (120) and will likely exceed 140 units for 2013. There are 3 large subdivisions currently active in the district; Madison at Georgetown, the Home Place and Sonterra West. These 3 developments have over 1,600 future lots to deliver. Projecting 95 (8.3%) enrollment growth for Fall 2014 with total district enrollment of 1,236. Five year enrollment growth = 658 with district enrollment = 1,799 in the year 2018. Ten year enrollment growth = 1,719 with district enrollment = 2,860 in the year 2023. 18